EMB Blog: 2021 Offseason

[eagle45]

Just some random ruminations on building a roster from 0...

1.  Rule #1 is not to waste resources.  The churn of high draft picks getting caught up in systemic failure is how a select few teams stay in hell.   Picks in rounds 1-3 need to have a logical plan and path towards filling out the big picture.  Won't always work out, but every pick needs a plan. 

2.  Rule #2 is to time the salary cap with your window of opportunity.  In a nod to Afan, 1-2 years of no cap room because you are offloading toxic veteran contracts probably isn't as bad as we make it out to be.  But if we enter 2023 with anything less than one of the few teams in the league with the most cap flexibility to bring in a young stud FA as the cherry on top of a team ready to compete, then Howie has failed the cap (and we are already pushing dead money into 2023).  If you are a no talent, bottom-dwelling team that is rebuilding through the draft (that's us right now), then you've really screwed something up if you aren't the team signing the premier talent on the other end of that rebuild.  That's the cycle. 

3. Don't break rule #1 and draft busts, but pure BPA is not necessarily practical.  Don't start with dependent positions.  As obsessive as I am over WR, it's a dependent position.  If you have no OL and no QB, your amazing new WR is going to flounder throughout his rookie deal.  A stud LT or RG will mostly hold up on their own and will give opportunities for other young players to succeed.  A RB who carries value on a rookie deal with a 4 year shelf life makes no sense as a draft pick unless the rest of the team is in place.  

4.  Be careful building your defense.  As the NFL is currently designed in 2021, I do not believe that defenses can win championships, or 12-13 games anymore.  You want your defense to be opportunistic, decent, and...most importantly....over-deliver for the less than 50% cap/draft investment you make.  I don't think mega-contracts and DPOY type players are good investments.  11 uniformly steady links in the chain.  Those are the defenses that will consistently not give up 40 points each Sunday.  And if you do your offense right, that's how you consistently win 12-13 games.

 

 

[Freshmilk]

I'm offensive line all the way early If, but if Sewell is gone (likely) a trade back to get another 2nd and/or a 3rd/4th (If San Fran at 12 I would want a 2nd this year and next years 1st) then going CB/safety top 2 picks would be a good plan.  Then add an IOL or two.  I'm not a fan of WR or Pitts at 6 but can see it happening.   

[DeathByEagle]

1 minute ago, Freshmilk said:

I'm offensive line all the way early If, but if Sewell is gone (likely) a trade back to get another 2nd and/or a 3rd/4th (If San Fran at 12 I would want a 2nd this year and next years 1st) then going CB/safety top 2 picks would be a good plan.  Then add an IOL or two.  I'm not a fan of WR or Pitts at 6 but can see it happening.   

I think most are for trading back. The only downfall is finding a partner to pay the price to move up. We all can say its simple, just trade back. But like trying to trade Wentz, or Ertz or Slay that everyone thinks is easy, its not. You need someone wanting what you have and willing to give up fail market value for it. 

Could happen, but maybe not. This draft being the hardest to scout, interview etc means some teams my hesitate to pull the trigger on moving up for a player. Or that could mean the opp as well and want to trade up for a more certain player. But key is we need to find someone will to pull that trigger at the value we need to make sense. Im sure if we moved back to say 12 and all we landed was a 4th rounder, people would be pretty pissed. Value

[eagle45]

2 minutes ago, DeathByEagle said:

I think most are for trading back. The only downfall is finding a partner to pay the price to move up. We all can say its simple, just trade back. But like trying to trade Wentz, or Ertz or Slay that everyone thinks is easy, its not. You need someone wanting what you have and willing to give up fail market value for it. 

Could happen, but maybe not. This draft being the hardest to scout, interview etc means some teams my hesitate to pull the trigger on moving up for a player. Or that could mean the opp as well and want to trade up for a more certain player. But key is we need to find someone will to pull that trigger at the value we need to make sense. Im sure if we moved back to say 12 and all we landed was a 4th rounder, people would be pretty pissed. Value

 

8 minutes ago, Freshmilk said:

I'm offensive line all the way early If, but if Sewell is gone (likely) a trade back to get another 2nd and/or a 3rd/4th (If San Fran at 12 I would want a 2nd this year and next years 1st) then going CB/safety top 2 picks would be a good plan.  Then add an IOL or two.  I'm not a fan of WR or Pitts at 6 but can see it happening.   

If we are trading out of the top 10 and a 2022 1st round pick is not immediately on the table, Howie better hang up the phone.

Like you said, 6 -> 12 I want a 2 this year and a 1 next year.

CB/S?  Can't say I'm on board with that one.

[Freshmilk]

4 minutes ago, DeathByEagle said:

I think most are for trading back. The only downfall is finding a partner to pay the price to move up. We all can say its simple, just trade back. But like trying to trade Wentz, or Ertz or Slay that everyone thinks is easy, its not. You need someone wanting what you have and willing to give up fail market value for it. 

Could happen, but maybe not. This draft being the hardest to scout, interview etc means some teams my hesitate to pull the trigger on moving up for a player. Or that could mean the opp as well and want to trade up for a more certain player. But key is we need to find someone will to pull that trigger at the value we need to make sense. Im sure if we moved back to say 12 and all we landed was a 4th rounder, people would be pretty pissed. Value

Well, it goes without saying it's all conjecture and hope.  Or do I need to preface each post about what I would like to happen in the draft with a disclaimer so I don't get needlessly lectured about obvious market/subjective value in an NFL draft?  

[DeathByEagle]

Just now, Freshmilk said:

Well, it goes without saying it's all conjecture and hope.  Or do I need to preface each post about what I would like to happen in the draft with a disclaimer so I don't get needlessly lectured about obvious market/subjective value in an NFL draft?  

Well there are plenty of unrealistic people here that think they can snap a finger and all of a sudden 20 teams want to just give the Eagles what they want to trade up with us. The amount of stupid here stinks up the place most days. 

[Freshmilk]

6 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

 

If we are trading out of the top 10 and a 2022 1st round pick is not immediately on the table, Howie better hang up the phone.

Like you said, 6 -> 12 I want a 2 this year and a 1 next year.

CB/S?  Can't say I'm on board with that one.

Yeah, not my favorite outcome of CB/S, but I wouldn't be hateful.  A Farley + Cisco/Holland doesn't make me feel apocalyptic.  But I have other preferences.  

[RLC]

43 minutes ago, ToastJenkins said:

If you believe that just take him

dont get cute

Taking a CB #6 overall, when there might be 5 QBs taken in the top 12, is bad process. 

Trade down because there's no way to know for sure who is good. Get more bites at the apple.

[greendestiny27]

4 hours ago, Allhaildawk said:

Slowest spin move ever. He’s a guy. But he’s a guy that successful teams can find in the draft very easily. 

I like Kylin Hill as a Sanders compliment. He looks like a three down back to me that should be there in round three or later. Hopefully later... Javian Hawkins is a smaller back i think could be our Hines type player. 

I absolutely love Javonte Williams but he could go late round 1. If he did make it to our 2nd rounder, I'd be fine with the pick but overall I just think our team is too screwed to take a running back in round 2 at this time. Load up on defense and o-line or maybe a WR there. But i couldn't dislike Williams as I feel he's going to be a flat out stud. 

[greendestiny27]

58 minutes ago, RLC said:

Moehrig in RD2 challenge.

I like him and Holland who also looks to excel in coverage. I really want two high end safety's this draft to be honest. 

[Original Sin]

3 down back days are over, you need multiple backs to carry the load , keep them fresh .

[Green_Guinness]

1 hour ago, Original Sin said:

Not a big fan of horn ,  His run support is questionable , not a big playmaker on the ball , he was well into his college career before getting his first pick . I’d argue his most well rounded year , may have been early on in the slot .

I actually really liked SC other CB , Mukuama , but he kinda leveled out , still like his size and skill set.

I like Mukuama, too, as a late round pick.  Somewhere in the late 5th to 6th rounds he should be a good value pick at a position we need loads more depth.

 

1 hour ago, RLC said:

Moehrig in RD2 challenge.

I really like him for us.  He seems to have the skill set we need in a S going forward.  Something tells me he won't be there at #37.  This is why I hope some team (SF, NE, CHI, etc.) offers us a sweet deal to trade up for one of the QBs.  A 2022 1st Rounder plus other picks in this draft sounds really nice given the situation we're currently in with a lack of quality young talent on the roster.  The way the NFL game is being played and how it will continue to evolve, IMO Ss will be more important than CBs.  Having a pair of rangy Ss with ballhawk ability will be more valuable, and far easier to find, than a lockdown CB.  This is why I want to see us double dip at S in this draft as there are a good amount of Ss with cover skills.  Having 2 Ss with that ability will take pressure off the CBs so you can have CBs who are merely decent/solid instead of looking for that one piece of pepper in a pile of gnat ish 'elite' CB.  And it starts with this kid in the mid/latter 1st Round.

 

54 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

  4.  Be careful building your defense.  As the NFL is currently designed in 2021, I do not believe that defenses can win championships, or 12-13 games anymore.  You want your defense to be opportunistic, decent, and...most importantly....over-deliver for the less than 50% cap/draft investment you make.  I don't think mega-contracts and DPOY type players are good investments.  11 uniformly steady links in the chain.  Those are the defenses that will consistently not give up 40 points each Sunday.  And if you do your offense right, that's how you consistently win 12-13 games.

Agree with this, especially the bolded.  Give me a D that's strong in the RZ and holds the O to FGs instead of TDs and that creates TOs.  DBs are going to get beat every game.  Give me the DBs who do get beat, but also get the ball back instead of ones who get beat and have no ball skills.  The lockdown CB is now on the endangered species list and going the way of the Dodo bird. 

 

[Alphagrand]

2 hours ago, bpac55 said:

Farley played just over 1 season at corner if I'm correct and then sat out last year.  I'd be wary of spending a high pick on him.  Maybe I'm worrying too much about the guys who took 2020 off but there's not telling how their game could have progressed or regressed had they played.  I feel much better taking a guy who played 2020 and we have film on.

Just look at Shaun Wade.  He was once touted as a sure thing 1st round pick.  He played 2020 and now he's looking at a potential 4th round grade.  There's just no telling how 1 year off impacted these guys.  That goes for Sewell, Parsons, Farley and even Trey Lance despite his 1 game.

Jaycee Horn is my guy at corner if we are looking in round 1.  Both UGA corners are intriguing in rounds 2-3.  I don't care that Stokes rand a 4.25, I care that they battled great WR in the SEC.  Wade would also intrigue me if he drops.  Could be tremendous value and potential in the 4th (if we get a pick back).

 

I don’t want Shaun Wade in any round, no matter how far he drops.  Value is one thing, but it’s only relevant if it applies to a good player.  This is the argument people try to make for Jalen Mills — "what do we expect from a guy we picked in the 7th round; he was great value” — no, he wasn’t.  The guy stinks, whether he was picked at #33 or 233.  Once they’re in uniform on Sunday I don’t give a crap where they were selected; I only care if they are an asset or a liability.

Wade has physical limitations, not good in man coverage, and I’m not sure his compete level is high enough — isn’t Wade the guy that got trucked by 5’8” Rondale Moore?

 

[Utebird]

1 hour ago, DeathByEagle said:

Id never spend a top 10 pick on a corner in today's NFL the way it is structured. 

In today's game is fully benefits the offense side of the ball. Look at the top corners in the league and I don't see a guy that is considered elite and that offenses are afraid to throw their way anymore. There is no true shut down corners anymore so not worth that high of a pick. Id consider QB, Oline, Dline and yes even WR or LB a top 10 candidate. Only reason Id add a WR is because of the impact they make and advantages they have in the game. LB if they are an all around LB that can blitz, cover, run stop etc. Someone like Luke Kuechly or Bobby Wagner(3rd rounder BTW)

I just dont see the impact with corners anymore with how the game is played on defense, schemes and rules. Mid/Late first sure, but not a early first. 

This!

Corner has become a less important position simply because of the way the rules of the league have been structured to benefit offenses.

Take the two super bowl teams this year and what they spent on corner.

The chiefs didn't have one corner with a cap hit if over 1 million dollars, the bucs have two corners with a cap hit of barely 1 million dollars, comparably tom brady had a 25 million cap hit.

2017 eagles spent the least amount of money on CB in the league and one of the highest spent on safety.

Safeties generally demand lower salaries than corners yet a safety line malcom jenkins can offer more on field value to a team as he is multiple in his skill and ability to play multiple positions. That's a better investment than paying a corner big money to do one thing.

I think scheme and finding corners that fit that scheme are more important 

Look at rasul douglas struggled here with what Schwartz asked him to do went to carolina where the scheme fit his skill set and he had a productive year.

Meanwhile Slay cones in who by the way had the 4th highest cap hit for a corner in the league and he struggled all year.was that money spent on corner a good investment?

I hope Howie goes back to 2017 model of spending less on corner and more elsewhere.

Not shockingly the bucs also spent a lot on LB, a position we know that Howie and the eagles devalue and not surprisingly they had far  more money allocated to LB in 2017 than they did corner.

I get eagles fans are conditioned to want high priced good corners but spending more on corner isn't a winning formula in today's NFL.

Makes more sense drafting a quality safety or LB in the 1st than a corner.

 

 

 

 

[bpac55]

6 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

I don’t want Shaun Wade in any round, no matter how far he drops.  Value is one thing, but it’s only relevant if it applies to a good player.  This is the argument people try to make for Jalen Mills — "what do we expect from a guy we picked in the 7th round; he was great value” — no, he wasn’t.  The guy stinks, whether he was picked at #33 or 233.  Once they’re in uniform on Sunday I don’t give a crap where they were selected; I only care if they are an asset or a liability.

Wade has physical limitations, not good in man coverage, and I’m not sure his compete level is high enough — isn’t Wade the guy that got trucked by 5’8” Rondale Moore?

 

To be fair, Rondale Moore is a rocked up tank, despite his height.

My question is, what happened to Wade?  He WAS good.  2020 he wasn't.  

[Original Sin]

7 minutes ago, Utebird said:

This!

Corner has become a less important position simply because of the way the rules of the league have been structured to benefit offenses.

Take the two super bowl teams this year and what they spent on corner.

The chiefs didn't have one corner with a cap hit if over 1 million dollars, the bucs have two corners with a cap hit of barely 1 million dollars, comparably tom brady had a 25 million cap hit.

2017 eagles spent the least amount of money on CB in the league and one of the highest spent on safety.

Safeties generally demand lower salaries than corners yet a safety line malcom jenkins can offer more on field value to a team as he is multiple in his skill and ability to play multiple positions. That's a better investment than paying a corner big money to do one thing.

I think scheme and finding corners that fit that scheme are more important 

Look at rasul douglas struggled here with what Schwartz asked him to do went to carolina where the scheme fit his skill set and he had a productive year.

Meanwhile Slay cones in who by the way had the 4th highest cap hit for a corner in the league and he struggled all year.was that money spent on corner a good investment?

I hope Howie goes back to 2017 model of spending less on corner and more elsewhere.

Not shockingly the bucs also spent a lot on LB, a position we know that Howie and the eagles devalue and not surprisingly they had far  more money allocated to LB in 2017 than they did corner.

I get eagles fans are conditioned to want high priced good corners but spending more on corner isn't a winning formula in today's NFL.

Makes more sense drafting a quality safety or LB in the 1st than a corner.

 

 

 

 

Bucs have used lots of 2nd and 3rd picks on their secondary, their top 3 CBs and top 3 safeties are all still on their rookie deals .

so whether you use a first on the secondary or a bunch of 2nd and 3rds  , the secondary still needs to be a big investment , it can make your pass rush look better .

[Utebird]

1 hour ago, eagle45 said:

Just some random ruminations on building a roster from 0...

1.  Rule #1 is not to waste resources.  The churn of high draft picks getting caught up in systemic failure is how a select few teams stay in hell.   Picks in rounds 1-3 need to have a logical plan and path towards filling out the big picture.  Won't always work out, but every pick needs a plan. 

2.  Rule #2 is to time the salary cap with your window of opportunity.  In a nod to Afan, 1-2 years of no cap room because you are offloading toxic veteran contracts probably isn't as bad as we make it out to be.  But if we enter 2023 with anything less than one of the few teams in the league with the most cap flexibility to bring in a young stud FA as the cherry on top of a team ready to compete, then Howie has failed the cap (and we are already pushing dead money into 2023).  If you are a no talent, bottom-dwelling team that is rebuilding through the draft (that's us right now), then you've really screwed something up if you aren't the team signing the premier talent on the other end of that rebuild.  That's the cycle. 

3. Don't break rule #1 and draft busts, but pure BPA is not necessarily practical.  Don't start with dependent positions.  As obsessive as I am over WR, it's a dependent position.  If you have no OL and no QB, your amazing new WR is going to flounder throughout his rookie deal.  A stud LT or RG will mostly hold up on their own and will give opportunities for other young players to succeed.  A RB who carries value on a rookie deal with a 4 year shelf life makes no sense as a draft pick unless the rest of the team is in place.  

4.  Be careful building your defense.  As the NFL is currently designed in 2021, I do not believe that defenses can win championships, or 12-13 games anymore.  You want your defense to be opportunistic, decent, and...most importantly....over-deliver for the less than 50% cap/draft investment you make.  I don't think mega-contracts and DPOY type players are good investments.  11 uniformly steady links in the chain.  Those are the defenses that will consistently not give up 40 points each Sunday.  And if you do your offense right, that's how you consistently win 12-13 games.

 

 

4 number 4 is key,the way the league rules favor offense and scoring and protecting qbs at all costs defenses are an after thought.

I grew up watching football in the late 80s early 90s the nfc east back then was stacked the giants with lawrence taylor the eagles gang green aikman smith and irvin get all the hype for thedalkas dynasty yet often forgotten is they were a top defense as well.

Even the flashy 49ers teams with montana and young had top defenses.

Then the 98 vikings and the rams greatest show on turf exploded onto the scene and before you know it every body wanted to score 40 points a game because high flying offenses were good for ratings fast forward to today and every offense is the greatest show on turf, except for the Jets apparently, they really are sad 🤔

Having said that I agree I think attempting to build a dominant defense is futile, the league doesn't want dominant defenses the league wants 40 point 500 yard games so one is pushing uphill against a system designed to put you at a disadvantage.

 

 

[Utebird]

3 minutes ago, Original Sin said:

Bucs have used lots of 2nd and 3rd picks on their secondary, their top 3 CBs and top 3 safeties are all still on their rookie deals .

so whether you use a first on the secondary or a bunch of 2nd and 3rds  , the secondary still needs to be a big investment , it can make your pass rush look better .

2nd and 3rd round rookie corners are great, they're cheap.

Ist round rookie corners or high priced FA corners are a bad investment in my opinion 

[Original Sin]

8 minutes ago, Utebird said:

2nd and 3rd round rookie corners are great, they're cheap.

Ist round rookie corners or high priced FA corners are a bad investment in my opinion 

Until they get paid , Carlton Davis will get top 10 CB money when his rookie deal is up .

[bpac55]

2 hours ago, DeathByEagle said:

Id never spend a top 10 pick on a corner in today's NFL the way it is structured. 

In today's game is fully benefits the offense side of the ball. Look at the top corners in the league and I don't see a guy that is considered elite and that offenses are afraid to throw their way anymore. There is no true shut down corners anymore so not worth that high of a pick. Id consider QB, Oline, Dline and yes even WR or LB a top 10 candidate. Only reason Id add a WR is because of the impact they make and advantages they have in the game. LB if they are an all around LB that can blitz, cover, run stop etc. Someone like Luke Kuechly or Bobby Wagner(3rd rounder BTW)

I just dont see the impact with corners anymore with how the game is played on defense, schemes and rules. Mid/Late first sure, but not a early first. 

That's how I look at it.  Is there such a thing as a top 10 corner anymore?  Do you think the Lions are happy they took Jeff Okudah at 3 last year?  Jags with CJ Henderson at 9?  Are those guys locking WR down?  

Shoot, the Rams spent pick 19 on Damon Arnette and he's already 25.  Yikes.

I don't want a corner unless they trade down a few times and build up some draft picks. 

[DeathByEagle]

5 minutes ago, Original Sin said:

Until they get paid , Carlton Davis will get top 10 CB money when his rookie deal is up .

By that time if they are not the next coming Deion Sanders or Derelle Revis that no QB wants to throw to his side then you can let them walk and draft your next 2nd/3rd rounder corner :)

[Original Sin]

1 minute ago, DeathByEagle said:

By that time if they are not the next coming Deion Sanders or Derelle Revis that no QB wants to throw to his side then you can let them walk and draft your next 2nd/3rd rounder corner 🙂

No , because the chances are better you swing and miss on a 2nd rd CB , so when you hit in one , you lock  him up .

[ManuManu]

43 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

I don’t want Shaun Wade in any round, no matter how far he drops.  Value is one thing, but it’s only relevant if it applies to a good player.  This is the argument people try to make for Jalen Mills — "what do we expect from a guy we picked in the 7th round; he was great value” — no, he wasn’t.  The guy stinks, whether he was picked at #33 or 233.  Once they’re in uniform on Sunday I don’t give a crap where they were selected; I only care if they are an asset or a liability.

Wade has physical limitations, not good in man coverage, and I’m not sure his compete level is high enough — isn’t Wade the guy that got trucked by 5’8” Rondale Moore?

 

I remember having a similar discussion with people about Mills. They said they didn’t understand why people had an issue with him since he was a seventh-round pick. Once you’re in the lineup, I don’t care what round you were taken in.

That said, Mills was a good return on a seventh-round pick. Most of those guys can’t last in the league to get a second contract.

[ManuManu]

44 minutes ago, Utebird said:

This!

Corner has become a less important position simply because of the way the rules of the league have been structured to benefit offenses.

Take the two super bowl teams this year and what they spent on corner.

The chiefs didn't have one corner with a cap hit if over 1 million dollars, the bucs have two corners with a cap hit of barely 1 million dollars, comparably tom brady had a 25 million cap hit.

2017 eagles spent the least amount of money on CB in the league and one of the highest spent on safety.

Safeties generally demand lower salaries than corners yet a safety line malcom jenkins can offer more on field value to a team as he is multiple in his skill and ability to play multiple positions. That's a better investment than paying a corner big money to do one thing.

I think scheme and finding corners that fit that scheme are more important 

Look at rasul douglas struggled here with what Schwartz asked him to do went to carolina where the scheme fit his skill set and he had a productive year.

Meanwhile Slay cones in who by the way had the 4th highest cap hit for a corner in the league and he struggled all year.was that money spent on corner a good investment?

I hope Howie goes back to 2017 model of spending less on corner and more elsewhere.

Not shockingly the bucs also spent a lot on LB, a position we know that Howie and the eagles devalue and not surprisingly they had far  more money allocated to LB in 2017 than they did corner.

I get eagles fans are conditioned to want high priced good corners but spending more on corner isn't a winning formula in today's NFL.

Makes more sense drafting a quality safety or LB in the 1st than a corner.

 

 

 

 

This is completely wrong. Slay had two incredibly bad games while battling injuries. He was really good the rest of the year. 

[SBorBust]

This is going to be interesting. I actually like Smith, Waddle, Farley, Pitts, and Slater. I just don’t like any of them at #6.
 

It seems like trading down to the 8-10 range would be perfect. Maybe CAR really wants a QB?