EMB Blog: 2021 Offseason

[DeathByEagle]

1 minute ago, Original Sin said:

No , because the chances are better you swing and miss on a 2nd rd CB , so when you hit in one , you lock  him up .

To me, Im willing to give up top money of the position to the Oline, Dline and a once in a generation QB. Other then that Im not paying any other position top 5 money for the position. No corner other then maybe Ramsey(have to check stats) is worth 15-20 mill a year, esp the corner position. 

[ManuManu]

11 minutes ago, Original Sin said:

No , because the chances are better you swing and miss on a 2nd rd CB , so when you hit in one , you lock  him up .

Yeah, people’s expectations for hitting on draft picks are completely out of whack.

[LeanMeanGM]

8 minutes ago, SBorBust said:

This is going to be interesting. I actually like Smith, Waddle, Farley, Pitts, and Slater. I just don’t like any of them at #6.
 

It seems like trading down to the 8-10 range would be perfect. Maybe CAR really wants a QB?

If Carolina really wants a QB they are probably jumping the Falcons so they don’t take one 

[DeathByEagle]

4 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

If Carolina really wants a QB they are probably jumping the Falcons so they don’t take one 

Funny how some though the tie vs the Bengals was a good thing at the time and how it could have helped us at the end of the season. Instead it came to bite us right on the butt 

[LeanMeanGM]

16 minutes ago, DeathByEagle said:

Funny how some though the tie vs the Bengals was a good thing at the time and how it could have helped us at the end of the season. Instead it came to bite us right on the butt 

It was kind of funny when they were in first place of the division for three weeks because of it 

[austinfan]

2 hours ago, eagle45 said:

Just some random ruminations on building a roster from 0...

1.  Rule #1 is not to waste resources.  The churn of high draft picks getting caught up in systemic failure is how a select few teams stay in hell.   Picks in rounds 1-3 need to have a logical plan and path towards filling out the big picture.  Won't always work out, but every pick needs a plan. 

2.  Rule #2 is to time the salary cap with your window of opportunity.  In a nod to Afan, 1-2 years of no cap room because you are offloading toxic veteran contracts probably isn't as bad as we make it out to be.  But if we enter 2023 with anything less than one of the few teams in the league with the most cap flexibility to bring in a young stud FA as the cherry on top of a team ready to compete, then Howie has failed the cap (and we are already pushing dead money into 2023).  If you are a no talent, bottom-dwelling team that is rebuilding through the draft (that's us right now), then you've really screwed something up if you aren't the team signing the premier talent on the other end of that rebuild.  That's the cycle. 

3. Don't break rule #1 and draft busts, but pure BPA is not necessarily practical.  Don't start with dependent positions.  As obsessive as I am over WR, it's a dependent position.  If you have no OL and no QB, your amazing new WR is going to flounder throughout his rookie deal.  A stud LT or RG will mostly hold up on their own and will give opportunities for other young players to succeed.  A RB who carries value on a rookie deal with a 4 year shelf life makes no sense as a draft pick unless the rest of the team is in place.  

4.  Be careful building your defense.  As the NFL is currently designed in 2021, I do not believe that defenses can win championships, or 12-13 games anymore.  You want your defense to be opportunistic, decent, and...most importantly....over-deliver for the less than 50% cap/draft investment you make.  I don't think mega-contracts and DPOY type players are good investments.  11 uniformly steady links in the chain.  Those are the defenses that will consistently not give up 40 points each Sunday.  And if you do your offense right, that's how you consistently win 12-13 games.

My god, we agree on most of these points. 😂

(3) One reason they're bringing back Kelce, Brooks and Lane is it allows you to maintain a top 5-10 OL as young OL mature, Dillard, Mailata, Driscoll, et al. And it allows time to develop third day OL instead of reaching on the first two days.

(4) I think the key on defense is some foundation pieces at each level and then surround them with fast young cheap athletes, I'd pay/draft for a top FS over a CB, a 3 down MLB a dominate DT as anchors for my defense, but I wouldn't try to build a dominant defense, too hard to maintain - so pay the best, and fill in the rest.

I also would shy away from investing too much in WRs, looking at yardage leaders, 22-28 seems to be the peak years now, so really it's the first contract and let them walk, or extend early and structure so you can cut them at 29-30. Pittsburgh has done this with great success.

[greendestiny27]

1 hour ago, Green_Guinness said:

I like Mukuama, too, as a late round pick.  Somewhere in the late 5th to 6th rounds he should be a good value pick at a position we need loads more depth.

 

I really like him for us.  He seems to have the skill set we need in a S going forward.  Something tells me he won't be there at #37.  This is why I hope some team (SF, NE, CHI, etc.) offers us a sweet deal to trade up for one of the QBs.  A 2022 1st Rounder plus other picks in this draft sounds really nice given the situation we're currently in with a lack of quality young talent on the roster.  The way the NFL game is being played and how it will continue to evolve, IMO Ss will be more important than CBs.  Having a pair of rangy Ss with ballhawk ability will be more valuable, and far easier to find, than a lockdown CB.  This is why I want to see us double dip at S in this draft as there are a good amount of Ss with cover skills.  Having 2 Ss with that ability will take pressure off the CBs so you can have CBs who are merely decent/solid instead of looking for that one piece of pepper in a pile of gnat ish 'elite' CB.  And it starts with this kid in the mid/latter 1st Round.

 

Agree with this, especially the bolded.  Give me a D that's strong in the RZ and holds the O to FGs instead of TDs and that creates TOs.  DBs are going to get beat every game.  Give me the DBs who do get beat, but also get the ball back instead of ones who get beat and have no ball skills.  The lockdown CB is now on the endangered species list and going the way of the Dodo bird. 

 

Yeah, I think he's gone by 37 too... Give me a trade back in round 1 to roughly 15 (give or take). Get that additional second rounder or something else comparable. Niners pick 15, maybe they see a QB here they give up their 2nd for. Round 1 go CB or best overall defensive player. Outside the box defensive picks I would love is Zaven Collins and JOK. Depending on how round 1 goes, go S/LB/CB.

Howie HAS to nail A LOT of picks. There's a ton of directions to go but this back 7 is bad with a barren cupboard. Give Gannon some talent. Maybe we can grab a Hooker in free agency even though his injury history is worrisome, he is only 25 and ultra talented, shouldn't cost too much. Maybe he can start anew here. We wouldn't be able to afford him if he was healthy. I'd roll the dice if the contract is right.

Also, Gannon's slot position led his team in forced turnovers. Go after a quality slot FA. Mike Hilton from the Steelers is 27, played all over the place and shouldn't be crazily priced. I'm guessing we're around 10-13 mil under giving us a shot at a couple under the radar signings. Give me LB Anthony Walker Jr in FA as well. This combined with two, maybe 3 more quality back 7 pieces between rounds 1 and 3 and the needle for the excitement for this defense may actually start to move in the right direction.

Example: FA - LB Anthony Walker Jr. , CB Mike Hilton , S Malik Hooker.  

combined with

Draft: 1st round trade back to 15 or so - CB Patrick Surtain/Jaycee Horn or LB Zaven Collins ; 2nd round: S Javon Holland/Moehrig  ;  depending on position selected in round 1 - 2nd round: CB Stokes/Newsome/Adebo or LB Surratt/McGrone/Cox/Moses/Werner (whomever fits Gannon's scheme best)

The back 7 has a major jolt of young talent and the D-line can be added later on and 2022 since this is at least a 2 year rebuild.

[DeathByEagle]

Fun little game I saw another msg board do. 

Starts with a over/under question. The next poster answers says their view of over or under. Then that poster posts a over/under question for the next poster to answer. Something different to kill some time. 

https://www.eaglesmessageboard.com/topic/2721-overunder-2021-eagles-game/

[BigEFly]

10 hours ago, Allhaildawk said:

Slowest spin move ever. He’s a guy. But he’s a guy that successful teams can find in the draft very easily. 

Great center of gravity and able to hide well and then burst behind decent Gs. Has proven to likely be a better screen game weapon than Sproles because he has better hands and good speed.  Spin move looks nice on film but is actually a stupid move more times than not in football. Rather have a guy with his center of gravity cut.  203 lb guys at 5’ 7” with 4.4 speed and good hands aren’t easy to find.  Scott isn’t a starting RB but is a great rotational player and unlike backs like Wendell Smallwood, he continues to get better in pass pro.  It is ridiculous that we don’t appreciate role players and denigrate them so much in here. 

[BigEFly]

5 hours ago, ManuManu said:

Top 10 corners by a guy who scouted in the NFL for 7 years. 

Pretty much agree except Adebo.  I just thought he bit on double moves and his flip seems to cost him a step. Don’t see a burst or make up step.  Suspect he is a 4.53 corner.  Could be wrong because most west coast games are late and I didn’t see him enough. 

[BigEFly]

4 hours ago, RLC said:

Farley is an easy target in a trade-back scenario. Has all-pro potential.

I think you are mistaken about still getting Farley on a trade back.  Wouldn’t get past the cowpads and I suspect he doesn’t make it to 10.

[Mike030270]

3 hours ago, Original Sin said:

3 down back days are over, you need multiple backs to carry the load , keep them fresh .

Only really need 2 starting on gameday IMO

[HazletonEagle]

7 minutes ago, BigEFly said:

Pretty much agree except Adebo.  I just thought he bit on double moves and his flip seems to cost him a step. Don’t see a burst or make up step.  Suspect he is a 4.53 corner.  Could be wrong because most west coast games are late and I didn’t see him enough. 

I was watching Gabriel Davis last year and he made Adebo his bish all game long. Came away really unimpressed with Adebo who got a lot of 1st round hype if he entered the draft last year. I didnt see it at all. 

[BigEFly]

3 hours ago, eagle45 said:

Just some random ruminations on building a roster from 0...

1.  Rule #1 is not to waste resources.  The churn of high draft picks getting caught up in systemic failure is how a select few teams stay in hell.   Picks in rounds 1-3 need to have a logical plan and path towards filling out the big picture.  Won't always work out, but every pick needs a plan. 

2.  Rule #2 is to time the salary cap with your window of opportunity.  In a nod to Afan, 1-2 years of no cap room because you are offloading toxic veteran contracts probably isn't as bad as we make it out to be.  But if we enter 2023 with anything less than one of the few teams in the league with the most cap flexibility to bring in a young stud FA as the cherry on top of a team ready to compete, then Howie has failed the cap (and we are already pushing dead money into 2023).  If you are a no talent, bottom-dwelling team that is rebuilding through the draft (that's us right now), then you've really screwed something up if you aren't the team signing the premier talent on the other end of that rebuild.  That's the cycle. 

3. Don't break rule #1 and draft busts, but pure BPA is not necessarily practical.  Don't start with dependent positions.  As obsessive as I am over WR, it's a dependent position.  If you have no OL and no QB, your amazing new WR is going to flounder throughout his rookie deal.  A stud LT or RG will mostly hold up on their own and will give opportunities for other young players to succeed.  A RB who carries value on a rookie deal with a 4 year shelf life makes no sense as a draft pick unless the rest of the team is in place.  

4.  Be careful building your defense.  As the NFL is currently designed in 2021, I do not believe that defenses can win championships, or 12-13 games anymore.  You want your defense to be opportunistic, decent, and...most importantly....over-deliver for the less than 50% cap/draft investment you make.  I don't think mega-contracts and DPOY type players are good investments.  11 uniformly steady links in the chain.  Those are the defenses that will consistently not give up 40 points each Sunday.  And if you do your offense right, that's how you consistently win 12-13 games.

 

 

This may be your best post.  I would tweak #4 a bit.  Steady isn’t sufficient.  In the secondary you need a player that can shut it down.  I have a prejudice toward secondary that matches yours.  Now a secondary matched with a good DL does win games. 
5. I also think you need balance so when a team makes a run, if one player goes down, they aren’t trashed.  We saw that in the McNabb years.  Chad Lewis goes down and there was not wormball catcher. Westbrook went down and we had no replacement.  Note that TO went down and they played through his recovery time because other receivers stepped up.  Same thing can happen on defense, OL, etc. look at how indispensable Brooks seems to be to the OL.

[BigEFly]

3 hours ago, greendestiny27 said:

I like him and Holland who also looks to excel in coverage. I really want two high end safety's this draft to be honest. 

One is good enough. I think Wallace will do fine as our down S.  Epps is adequate at third S and back up FS.  Give me someone like Holland at FS.   I do see a second day pick there. 

[Utebird]

2 hours ago, Original Sin said:

Until they get paid , Carlton Davis will get top 10 CB money when his rookie deal is up .

Yup, let somebody else pay him that money.

Corners are like RBs these days, their best value is the 4 or 5 years they are on their rookie contracts, after that they demand big money on the open market someone will always pay it and one ends up allocating way too much money to a devalued position while other positions consequently take a hit.

[Original Sin]

4 minutes ago, Utebird said:

Yup, let somebody else pay him that money.

Corners are like RBs these days, their best value is the 4 or 5 years they are on their rookie contracts, after that they demand big money on the open market someone will always pay it and one ends up allocating way too much money to a devalued position while other positions consequently take a hit.

You have to choose what positions or players you value the most . Bucs will probably have to let Godwin and David both go in free agency , Maybe Suh too . Comp picks should be good though .

[Utebird]

2 hours ago, ManuManu said:

This is completely wrong. Slay had two incredibly bad games while battling injuries. He was really good the rest of the year. 

He was ok, I think really good is a stretch, having said that he was the 4th highest paid corner last year, does one feel like he was the 4th best corner in the league or that performed as the 4th highest paid corner should have. Did his value match his cost?

In my opinion no.

 

[brkmsn]

1 minute ago, Utebird said:

He was ok, I think really good is a stretch, having said that he was the 4th highest paid corner last year, does one feel like he was the 4th best corner in the league or that performed as the 4th highest paid corner should have. Did his value match his cost?

In my opinion no.

 

When you remove stats from situations and compare them to other stats you may get a false conclusion. I agree with your sentiment, however.  But I really don't worry about the pay. He was a better value to us than Byron Maxwell was. There will always be players on cheap contracts that perform better than players that have earned the large vet contracts. I look at Slay and see a very good player in his prime. I'm not worried about him. I'm worried about CB2. CB2 will be a much cheaper player and hopefully out-perform his contract. If that Happens, we will be set at CB in 2021.

[austinfan]

Wonder if Slay can handle FS, to me a FS with the range to cover for pressing CBs is more valuable than a CB in today's NFL.

With multiple WR sets you can throw away from a shutdown CB, but the FS is always in position to make plays if the QB is careless.

[Utebird]

13 minutes ago, Original Sin said:

You have to choose what positions or players you value the most . Bucs will probably have to let Godwin and David both go in free agency , Maybe Suh too . Comp picks should be good though .

I totally agree, and as such I would value LBs DL and safeties not in any order over corner.

Corners are expensive and not as multiple as other defensive positions.

Like I said in 2017 the eagles had the least amount of money allocated to Corner.

Mills was a 7 th rounder he got toasted most of the season but was solidarity in run support and one of the best DBs in the end zone/ red zone.

Darby was on his rookie contract and was hurt or getting toasted all year, rasul douglas was ok in spot duty, solid in run support.

P robinson almost got cut in camp was on vet league minimum and played really well out of slot.

Most that year other than robinson the eagles corners were just average, they were the least compensated position on defense and they played like it as the eagles front 7 was really good and pricey as well.

Part of the problem the next few years was P rob left the following year darby couldn't stay healthy jenkins got older mcleod got older and hurt douglas wasn't a fit for the scheme and the whole sidney jones think didn't work so instead of finding  Inexpensive rookies or vets to play corner howie traded for the 4th most expensive one ignored LB and safety and number 2 corner and called that a plan🤔

Obviously not a good one 

[Utebird]

6 minutes ago, brkmsn said:

When you remove stats from situations and compare them to other stats you may get a false conclusion. I agree with your sentiment, however.  But I really don't worry about the pay. He was a better value to us than Byron Maxwell was. There will always be players on cheap contracts that perform better than players that have earned the large vet contracts. I look at Slay and see a very good player in his prime. I'm not worried about him. I'm worried about CB2. CB2 will be a much cheaper player and hopefully out-perform his contract. If that Happens, we will be set at CB in 2021.

I like slay, I think the money for the production or lack of could be spent elsewhere, slay had a pedestrian year, not sure if use maxwell to make a point.

Byron maxwell was a nickel corner that chip gave number one corner money to, it was bad from start to finish, still not sure how Howie dumped him off on the dolphins.🤔

At least slay had a track record as a really good number one corner, unfortunately he had a rough year and I think that money could have effectively been spent elsewhere on other positions or even 2 players of that same position.

Either way pairing maddox with slay was a predictable disaster from the get go.

[bpac55]

11 minutes ago, austinfan said:

Wonder if Slay can handle FS, to me a FS with the range to cover for pressing CBs is more valuable than a CB in today's NFL.

With multiple WR sets you can throw away from a shutdown CB, but the FS is always in position to make plays if the QB is careless.

If Slay can extend his career a la Charles Woodson, I'm all for it.  Provided we can draft some outside corners who can produce something.  I'm done with the Avonte Maddox's of the world.  Give us some guys over 5'9".

 

[ManuManu]

26 minutes ago, Utebird said:

He was ok, I think really good is a stretch, having said that he was the 4th highest paid corner last year, does one feel like he was the 4th best corner in the league or that performed as the 4th highest paid corner should have. Did his value match his cost?

In my opinion no.

 

Here’s a sampling of Slay’s work against top receivers this year, per ProFootballFocus (entering week 17):

Terry McLaurin — 3 targets, 2 catches, 28 yards

Cooper Kupp — 2 targets, 1 catch, 5 yards

Robert Woods — 2 targets, 1 catch 13 yards

A.J. Green — 5 targets, 4 catches, 31 yards

JuJu Smith-Schuster — 2 targets, 1 catch, 11 yards

Chase Claypool — 4 targets, 2 catches, 26 yards

Darius Slayton (2 games) — 7 targets, 6 catches, 94 yards 

Michael Gallup (2 games) — 4 targets, 3 catches, 28 yards

Jarvis Landry — 1 target, 1 catch, 13 yards

DK Metcalf — 11 targets, 8 catches, 158 yards

Davante Adams — 7 targets, 6 catches, 100 yards, 2 TDs

Michael Thomas — 3 targets, 3 catches, 33 yards

Amari Cooper (2 games) — 1 target, 1 catch, 35 yards

This season in 14 games, Slay has given up 57 catches on 74 targets for 740 yards, according to ProFootballFocus. That comes out to 4.07 receptions and 52.9 yards per game.

https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/eagles/has-darius-slay-been-cornerback1-eagles-wanted-2020-season

[eagle45]

2 hours ago, austinfan said:

My god, we agree on most of these points. 😂

(3) One reason they're bringing back Kelce, Brooks and Lane is it allows you to maintain a top 5-10 OL as young OL mature, Dillard, Mailata, Driscoll, et al. And it allows time to develop third day OL instead of reaching on the first two days.

(4) I think the key on defense is some foundation pieces at each level and then surround them with fast young cheap athletes, I'd pay/draft for a top FS over a CB, a 3 down MLB a dominate DT as anchors for my defense, but I wouldn't try to build a dominant defense, too hard to maintain - so pay the best, and fill in the rest.

I also would shy away from investing too much in WRs, looking at yardage leaders, 22-28 seems to be the peak years now, so really it's the first contract and let them walk, or extend early and structure so you can cut them at 29-30. Pittsburgh has done this with great success.

I guess sometimes the planets align.  I do value wr more than most, but I share that concern around 29-30.

Agreed on OL...even though I have all but written off guys like Johnson/Kelce/Brooks as players who will be completely non-viable before we are competitive again, their presence makes it possible to run a functional offense and to develop other players.