August 10, 20223 yr Good news for Biden. Inflation rate drops to 8.5% in July, but has it peaked? ‘We’re not there yet,’ says economist https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/10/inflation-rate-drops-in-july-but-cpi-prices-remain-high.html The rate of inflation was slower than expected in July, offering some hope that inflation is cooling down. Inflation dropped 0.6% from its June peak, for a year-over-year rate of 8.5%, according to Labor Department data published Wednesday. This was lower than many estimates, including a Bloomberg survey of 44 economists that predicted a rate of 8.7%. The slowing rate of inflation is due in large part to a 7.7% decline in gas prices, but also drops in prices for used vehicles, airline fares and apparel. However, prices remain elevated overall in broad categories like shelter and food. Food prices increased by 1.1% in July, following a 1% gain in June.
August 11, 20223 yr Old news, but kind of important, especially if we’re playing arms dealer for Ukraine. 6-9 months and who knows how much money to restart production.
August 12, 20223 yr Loving the part where we borrow $4.5B from the Chinese to pay down Ukrainian debt. Winning like mofo's over here!
August 30, 20223 yr a lot of emerging markets are on the brink as well. I don’t think most people realize the kind of tightrope the Fed is walking right now.
September 12, 20223 yr Official inflation report comes out tomorrow, but WSJ is expecting flat or even a drop in prices in August: WSJ: Inflation Showed Signs of Easing in Several Industries in August Quote Gasoline prices fell sharply in August, airfares dropped and used cars and hotels ebbed, while rent increases also gave hints of slowing, according to private firms that track such data. Still, food prices continued to soar this past month and prices for a range of goods and services remained much higher than a year earlier, the figures show. The path of inflation could influence looming decisions by the Federal Reserve about how high to lift interest rates. Inflation could also shape midterm elections as voters assess their pocketbooks. Looking ahead to a government inflation report to be released on Tuesday, many Wall Street analysts estimate the Labor Department’s overall consumer-price index was unchanged or dropped in August from July. If so, it would mark the second straight month of slower inflation since annual inflation surged to a four-decade high in June. "We are experiencing a slowdown driven by the decline in fuel prices, but there is still significant upward pressure in such important categories as food, household items and healthcare products,” said Alberto Cavallo, a Harvard Business School professor who in 2008 created a "billion price” index that tracked dollar amounts of online consumer transactions. "We are not out of the woods yet.” Called PriceStats, the price index—which is managed by State Street Global Markets and generally tracks the CPI—fell in August. The year-over-year increase in the CPI reached 9.1% in June, the highest annual inflation rate since 1981, and ticked down to 8.5% in July. In some industries, firms report progress working through pandemic-related supply-chain disruptions that have pushed prices higher. Meantime, consumers—particularly in low-income households—are pushing back against high prices by changing their spending habits. Moreover, many retailers have amped up discounting programs to clear inventory of clothing and other items that they overstocked during the pandemic. "I hesitate to call it a bloodbath, but it’s going to be ugly in terms of the amount of discounting and markdowns,” Richard Hayne, chief executive of Urban Outfitters Inc., said on an earnings call with analysts a month ago. A leading theme in August was the decline in the price of gasoline. A gallon of unleaded dropped to $3.84 at the end of August from $4.22 at the end of July, a 9% decline, according to the AAA.
September 13, 20223 yr On 9/12/2022 at 4:15 PM, JohnSnowsHair said: Official inflation report comes out tomorrow, but WSJ is expecting flat or even a drop in prices in August: WSJ: Inflation Showed Signs of Easing in Several Industries in August Yeah, the markets didn’t take actual inflation report well. Core CPI is on the rise again. Looks like we’re in for a long road at this point. Inflation is alive and well.
September 13, 20223 yr On 9/12/2022 at 10:15 AM, JohnSnowsHair said: Official inflation report comes out tomorrow, but WSJ is expecting flat or even a drop in prices in August: WSJ: Inflation Showed Signs of Easing in Several Industries in August
September 13, 20223 yr It didn't. But it's still down from last month, just below expectations. Doesn't seem to add up IMHO. Why are food prices higher? Gas is down significantly, and borrowing costs are significantly higher than a couple mos ago. @vikas83I'd be curious about your take. Lot of leaking early about a more positive report then this. Market manipulation?
September 13, 20223 yr 1 hour ago, JohnSnowsHair said: It didn't. But it's still down from last month, just below expectations. Doesn't seem to add up IMHO. Why are food prices higher? Gas is down significantly, and borrowing costs are significantly higher than a couple mos ago. @vikas83I'd be curious about your take. Lot of leaking early about a more positive report then this. Market manipulation? Here’s the thing with commodities… they are very difficult to control through financial tools when the physical products are in short supply. Food is a very broad term, but there have been serious problems with agriculture in everything from corn to rice. This started with fertilizer issues even before Ukraine, which has only compounded the problem. That then rolls into livestock feed, which rolls into meat and dairy prices. And so on and so forth. There have also been a weird series of fires at food processing plants around the country. And we’re about to get a rail workers strike, which will disrupt supply and elevate prices even further.
September 14, 20223 yr On 8/10/2022 at 9:04 AM, JohnSnowsHair said: "On a monthly basis, the CPI is estimated to have increased by 0.2% in July after rising 1.3% the prior month, the result of falling energy prices such as gasoline." -WSJ That is a good thing. It's only one month though. We had a good month earlier in the year but that didn't become a trend. Year over year inflation is going to stay high until we start getting a few months of low inflation like this. One data point is not a trend but every trend starts with one. The question of whether this is the beginning of the of high inflation won't be answered for months. Spolier….its not
September 14, 20223 yr $80 Per barrel to fill Strategic Oil Reserve just two years after democrats blocked Trump from filling the reserve at $24 per barrel. Biden ordered the release of a record 180 million barrels of oil from the reserve. "Fill 'er up" $14,400,000,000 😮
September 15, 20223 yr Quote The most important factor for quickly expanding our exploitation of oil, gas, solar, wind, geothermal, hydro or nuclear energy is giving the companies that pursue them (and the banks that fund them) the regulatory certainty that if they invest billions, the government will help them to quickly build the transmission lines and pipelines to get their energy to market. Greens love solar panels but hate transmission lines. Good luck saving the planet with that approach.
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