October 7, 20242 yr 8 minutes ago, Gannan said: That's the doomsday scenario...that because Trump outperformed his polls in 2016, and 2020 he will easily do it again this time around. I'm not saying you're wrong in this logic. No doubt Andrea Mitchell is saying the same thing...if polls say she is down 5 among men, she's really down 15. I'm just not buying it. Beyond the polling, the fundraising gap, and the enthusiasm gap... are very real. So I'm personally not buying the "he will outperform his polls" narrative again. If he's outperforming his polls by 10 points, then she has no chance anyway. Trump would win the popular vote 7 or 8 points. I mean does anyone outside of Procus really think he's going to win the popular vote by 8 points? There are no data points that point to that. This is basically the same thing as the Eagles Vs. Tampa thing in the NFC championship where everyone said Tampa always lost in the past when the weather was below 40 degrees so they will lose again this time. No doubt - but don't discount the cheating advantage the Dems have. That could very well swing the election in their favor.
October 7, 20242 yr 14 minutes ago, Gannan said: So I'm personally not buying the "he will outperform his polls" narrative again. If he's outperforming his polls by 10 points, then she has no chance anyway. Trump would win the popular vote 7 or 8 points. I mean does anyone outside of Procus really think he's going to win the popular vote by 8 points? There are no data points that point to that. This is basically the same thing as the Eagles Vs. Tampa thing in the NFC championship where everyone said Tampa always lost in the past when the weather was below 40 degrees so they will lose again this time. That's the thing, he doesn't need to outperform them by 6 pts again, only by 1 pt in limited circumstances. That's the current lead she has in her two most critical states. I'm not saying it will for sure happen again, just that I'd have thought she'd be polling better at this point with only 4 weeks to go. And to be clear, I think her lead with women is being undercounted too. I think when push comes to shove, a lot of mothers who gave birth to daughters will make a decision they think will be in their daughter's best interest if and when the time for them comes to carry a child. So yeah, hopefully the polls are wrong in our favor like they were in 2022, but I'm not sure I'd be banking on that either, because the zone has been flooded and the level of uncertainty has never been higher. It just feels like this race is still a toss-up to me no matter how much we decide to chop up the demos.
October 7, 20242 yr 2 minutes ago, Procus said: No doubt - but don't discount the cheating advantage the Dems have. That could very well swing the election in their favor. Quiet now, Seabiscuit. The adults are talking.
October 7, 20242 yr 9 minutes ago, Gannan said: That's the doomsday scenario...that because Trump outperformed his polls in 2016, and 2020 he will easily do it again this time around. I'm not saying you're wrong in this logic. No doubt Andrea Mitchell is saying the same thing...if polls say she is down 5 among men, she's really down 15. I'm just not buying it. Beyond the polling, the fundraising gap, and the enthusiasm gap... are very real. So I'm personally not buying the "he will outperform his polls" narrative again. If he's outperforming his polls by 10 points, then she has no chance anyway. Trump would win the popular vote 7 or 8 points. I mean does anyone outside of Procus really think he's going to win the popular vote by 8 points? There are no data points that point to that. This is basically the same thing as the Eagles Vs. Tampa thing in the NFC championship where everyone said Tampa always lost in the past when the weather was below 40 degrees so they will lose again this time. I can't stress enough how tight this race is. In my mind, Harris is statistically likely to lose one of PA, WI, or MI... which makes the NC gift so important. And that's the best case scenario I see. Whoever wins is going to do it with razor thin margins.
October 7, 20242 yr On 10/6/2024 at 12:01 PM, mr_hunt said: trumpers see the loss coming & are losing their minds...and I'm here for it. Right now I like his odds better than hers.
October 7, 20242 yr JFC she's horrible. Her staff should ball gag her when she tries these interviews.
October 7, 20242 yr This is one disgusting dude. I mean this guy is really f'n disgusting. There are so many things I would love to say, but some of you Trump lovers would clutch your pearls.
October 7, 20242 yr 2 hours ago, mayanh8 said: I can't stress enough how tight this race is. In my mind, Harris is statistically likely to lose one of PA, WI, or MI... which makes the NC gift so important. And that's the best case scenario I see. Whoever wins is going to do it with razor thin margins. Gift?
October 7, 20242 yr 1 minute ago, SPIDER-MAN said: This is one disgusting dude. I mean this guy is really f'n disgusting. Disgusting that he showed up, absolutely disgusting. Harris and Walz were invited, but they declined.
October 7, 20242 yr 1 hour ago, Tweek said: Give it 2 hours before MAGA is screeching the Biden admin is ignoring Florida I thought Biden was the president. How does Kamala get her hands on the decision of what money to hand out? When Sandy hit NY, it was Obama who called Chris Christie, not VP Joe Biden.
October 7, 20242 yr 39 minutes ago, SPIDER-MAN said: This is one disgusting dude. I mean this guy is really f'n disgusting. There are so many things I would love to say, but some of you Trump lovers would clutch your pearls. People are just a means to an end
October 7, 20242 yr 9 hours ago, VanHammersly said: Been saying it for years, Dems need to stop providing rural broadband. It only encourages these inbred scumbags. Deplorable, and anti-democracy.
October 8, 20242 yr Jews often come up to Trump with tears in their eyes asking him to sign their prayer book.
October 8, 20242 yr 5 hours ago, VanHammersly said: Ok Procus. Look, you'll be so senile and incontinent by then that the guy that wipes your ass will probably be the one casting your vote, so I guess I can't attest to his political leanings, but regardless, you'd vote for him until he dies if you could, guaranteed. I don't know why but there was a little while there where I thought Procus was a woman.
October 8, 20242 yr 4 minutes ago, SPIDER-MAN said: I don't know why but there was a little while there where I thought Procus was a woman. Yeah "he” has a feminine energy about "him”. Honestly, Procus is at the age where he might as well be a eunuch. It’s all the same.
October 8, 20242 yr Ron DeSantis is refusing to take Harris' call on Hurricane Helene https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/kamala-harris/ron-desantis-harris-call-hurricane-helene-political-rcna174276 That's right Ron. You stick to your guns. F your constituents. They don't need any of that woke money.
October 8, 20242 yr Just now, VanHammersly said: Yeah "he” has a feminine energy about "him”. Honestly, Procus is at the age where he might as well be a eunuch. It’s all the same. But does he have a shaved head?
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