EMB Blog: 2021 Offseason

[RememberTheKoy]

2 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

Hurts needs to be either really good or really bad in 2021.  Either option works out for the team in the long-run.  (Obviously best if really good).

But we can't afford to walk too far down this path if it's the wrong one.  

 

 

Let's say he throws 24 TD passes, 12 interceptions, 3,600+ passing yards, 600+ rushing yards & 5 rushing TDs in year #2/1st full season as a starter.

 

Where does that fall for you and Hurts going forward?

[eagle45]

1 minute ago, bpac55 said:

If you watch the limited Vernon Davis highlights on YouTube, he is totally different than Pitts.  The combine is what put him over the top.  Davis was more of a rumbler at 6-3 250.  Pitts is long, lean with insane reach at 6-6 240.  I think it's unfair to compare the 2.  Totally different style of tight ends.

There are differences and similarities.  Watching them play, sure...Davis is more stiff, but probably more explosive and definitely more powerful.  Pitts is longer, leaner, more fluid.  

While they may have different styles, their best-case scenario usage is the same: a TE/WR hybrid matchup nightmare who doesn't block much.  Pitts probably will not match Davis' truly incredible explosion and workout numbers, but his fluidity might make him a better WR than Davis.  The best comparison for Pitts is probably a far more athletic and faster Zach Ertz.  Ertz has merely above average measurables for a receiving TE, but is a stud because he's such a fluid athlete who runs routes with the precision of a WR.  

 

[eagle45]

6 minutes ago, RememberTheKoy said:

 

 

Let's say he throws 24 TD passes, 12 interceptions, 3,600+ passing yards, 600+ rushing yards & 5 rushing TDs in year #2/1st full season as a starter.

 

Where does that fall for you and Hurts going forward?

Obviously, we need some context.  But that would probably make me extremely unhappy, to be honest (cue the eyore jokes).  Given the supporting cast, that would be admirable.  Just like what Wentz did with poor support in 2018-2019 was admirable too.

We are looking for a HOF, multi-championship winning franchise QB (us and everyone else).  Doing "more with less" isn't what we should be after.  A season with bottom 1/3 passing yards and a high ratio of rushing yards to passing yards...that's not the QB...not the offense that anyone wants.

Now, if he threw for 4200 yards, 28 TD, 20 INT...he'd have my attention.  I want someone who can flat out pass.  I'll excuse turnovers and some bad sacks for a learning year, but I want to see evidence of volume and talent in the air.

[Alphagrand]

If the Eagles pick at #6 it pretty much has to be Zach Wilson, Chase, Pitts, or Sewell

I don’t think anyone else makes sense in that spot.

[Utebird]

1 minute ago, eagle45 said:

There are differences and similarities.  Watching them play, sure...Davis is more stiff, but probably more explosive and definitely more powerful.  Pitts is longer, leaner, more fluid.  

While they may have different styles, their best-case scenario usage is the same: a TE/WR hybrid matchup nightmare who doesn't block much.  Pitts probably will not match Davis' truly incredible explosion and workout numbers, but his fluidity might make him a better WR than Davis.  The best comparison for Pitts is probably a far more athletic and faster Zach Ertz.  Ertz has merely above average measurables for a receiving TE, but is a stud because he's such a fluid athlete who runs routes with the precision of a WR.  

 

I think vernon davis is was an underrated run blocker. Guy was pretty strong and expolosive at the point when he cared, it was the motivating him to do it that was the problem early on.

Where as a guy like Pitts even when motivated to block doesn't really have the natural ability to be good at it.

Guys like Gronk who are mismatch players in the passing game and devastating in line blockers are generational talents and the rare exception.

If Pitts could block I'd be more willing to use a top ten pick on him without that ability he's basically a big WR who can be moved around the formation.

[bpac55]

6 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

There are differences and similarities.  Watching them play, sure...Davis is more stiff, but probably more explosive and definitely more powerful.  Pitts is longer, leaner, more fluid.  

While they may have different styles, their best-case scenario usage is the same: a TE/WR hybrid matchup nightmare who doesn't block much.  Pitts probably will not match Davis' truly incredible explosion and workout numbers, but his fluidity might make him a better WR than Davis.  The best comparison for Pitts is probably a far more athletic and faster Zach Ertz.  Ertz has merely above average measurables for a receiving TE, but is a stud because he's such a fluid athlete who runs routes with the precision of a WR.  

 

I honestly think the best comparison is Mike Evans.  I'm honestly not viewing Pitts as a tight end.  His measurables are almost identical to Evans.  What an intriguing prospect to discuss for sure. 

[RememberTheKoy]

8 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

Obviously, we need some context.  But that would probably make me extremely unhappy, to be honest (cue the eyore jokes).  Given the supporting cast, that would be admirable.  Just like what Wentz did with poor support in 2018-2019 was admirable too.

We are looking for a HOF, multi-championship winning franchise QB (us and everyone else).  Doing "more with less" isn't what we should be after.  A season with bottom 1/3 passing yards and a high ratio of rushing yards to passing yards...that's not the QB...not the offense that anyone wants.

Now, if he threw for 4200 yards, 28 TD, 20 INT...he'd have my attention.  I want someone who can flat out pass.  I'll excuse turnovers and some bad sacks for a learning year, but I want to see evidence of volume and talent in the air.

 

If that would make you extremely unhappy then your expectations of what any QB is going to do on this roster next season might be a bit unreasonable.   

 

For reference Russell Wilson in his 2nd season went for 26 TD passes, 9 interceptions, 3,357 passing yards, 539 rushing yards & 1 rushing TD.  

[eagle45]

6 minutes ago, RememberTheKoy said:

 

If that would make you extremely unhappy then your expectations of what any QB is going to do on this roster next season are a bit unreasonable.  

 

For reference Russell Wilson in his 2nd season went for 26 TD passes, 9 interceptions, 3,357 passing yards, 539 rushing yards & 1 rushing TD.  

I had Russell Wilson in mind when you used those stats.

His career arc is a nontraditional, even somewhat unsatisfactory one.  IMO, his coach brought him up the wrong way...and he's now at a level of age/experience/wisdom that he's pissed about it himself.  He was encouraged to improvise, use his legs, and rely on chaotic passing for most of his career.  He's been a highly rated passer AND a high volume passer only 3 times in his career.  He's been exceptionally lucky to stay healthy with the way he plays and the hits he has taken.  

No QB should be modeled after the progression of Russell Wilson, as it is not very reproducible.  

Also, NFL passing offense has been inflated, even in comparison to 2013.

[MillerTime]

18 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

Obviously, we need some context.  But that would probably make me extremely unhappy, to be honest (cue the eyore jokes).  Given the supporting cast, that would be admirable.  Just like what Wentz did with poor support in 2018-2019 was admirable too.

We are looking for a HOF, multi-championship winning franchise QB (us and everyone else).  Doing "more with less" isn't what we should be after.  A season with bottom 1/3 passing yards and a high ratio of rushing yards to passing yards...that's not the QB...not the offense that anyone wants.

Now, if he threw for 4200 yards, 28 TD, 20 INT...he'd have my attention.  I want someone who can flat out pass.

Only one Eagle has EVER passed for 4000 yards and he had the most pass attempts EVER in Eagles history. Your expectations for a good QB are way to high.

EDIT:

Aaron Rodgers has only done it 5 times in his career, Tom Brady 7. Basing Hurts 2nd season on him throwing for 4000 yards is just unrealistic.

[LeanMeanGM]

24 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

If you watch the limited Vernon Davis highlights on YouTube, he is totally different than Pitts.  The combine is what put him over the top.  Davis was more of a rumbler at 6-3 250.  Pitts is long, lean with insane reach at 6-6 240.  I think it's unfair to compare the 2.  Totally different style of tight ends.

I’m not really comparing them, just saying Davis was a superb TE prospect in 2006

[LeanMeanGM]

14 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

If the Eagles pick at #6 it pretty much has to be Zach Wilson, Chase, Pitts, or Sewell

I don’t think anyone else makes sense in that spot.

I’m not a fan but I think you could add Fields too

[RememberTheKoy]

1 minute ago, eagle45 said:

I had Russell Wilson in mind when you used those stats.

His career arc is a nontraditional, even somewhat unsatisfactory one.  IMO, his coach brought him up the wrong way...and he's now at a level of age/experience/wisdom that he's pissed about it himself.  He was encouraged to improvise, use his legs, and rely on chaotic passing for most of his career.  He's been a highly rated passer AND a high volume passer only 3 times in his career.  He's been exceptionally lucky to stay healthy with the way he plays and the hits he has taken.  

No QB should be modeled after the progression of Russell Wilson, as it is not very reproducible.  

Also, NFL passing offense has been inflated, even in comparison to 2013.

Unsatisfactory career arc? He's gone to two Super Bowls, won 1 and has never won less than 9 games in a season.  He will be going to the Hall of Fame.  I'd say his career, which is far from over has had a pretty good career arc for a 3rd round pick. 

Dak Prescott's second season for reference: 22 TD passes, 3,300+ passing yards, 13 interceptions,  357 rushing yards and 6 rushing TDs. 

 

[eagle45]

6 minutes ago, MillerTime said:

Only one Eagle has EVER passed for 4000 yards and he had the most pass attempts EVER in Eagles history. Your expectations for a good QB are way to high.

EDIT:

Aaron Rodgers has only done it 5 times in his career, Tom Brady 7. Basing Hurts 2nd season on him throwing for 4000 yards is just unrealistic.

And what percentage of starting QB's who started 16 games in 2020 passed for 4k yards?

[LeanMeanGM]

Also I think with Pitts you are going to need a creative play caller and offensive mind to really unlock his full potential. I don’t think you can say Sirianni would know what to do with him right now. I also don’t think he’s going to be a full time X. He will play some and play some TE and play some slot. I don’t think you can pigeonhole him into just one role. 

[eagle45]

3 minutes ago, RememberTheKoy said:

Unsatisfactory career arc? He's gone to two Super Bowls, won 1 and has never won less than 9 games in a season.  He will be going to the Hall of Fame.  I'd say his career, which is far from over has had a pretty good career arc for a 3rd round pick. 

Dak Prescott's second season for reference: 22 TD passes, 3,300+ passing yards, 13 interceptions,  357 rushing yards and 6 rushing TDs. 

 

You want Dak?  He's available.

[RememberTheKoy]

3 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

You want Dak?  He's available.

 

Eagles can't afford him. 

 

You don't want a QB of Dak or Wilson's level though?  2019 Dak threw for over 4,900 yards and 30 TDs.  Last year he was on pace for just under 6k passing yards. 

[HazletonEagle]

40 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

Ehhh. It’s been awhile but Davis was an insane prospect, especially after the combine. He was 6’3 and 254 but ran a 4.38 and put up 33 reps on the bench. He was mostly 98% percentile and up in everything besides the 3 cone. 

Davis was incredible on the football field too. It was so fun to watch him refuse to go down.  He was too strong for college players.  He consistently needed 3-4 guys to bring him down.  He would just carry guys on his legs and back and keep going. 

[DoWorx]

[MillerTime]

24 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

And what percentage of starting QB's who started 16 games in 2020 passed for 4k yards?

12 QBs threw for 4k. 6 had winnings records.

Only 7 QBs have ever done it more than 4 times in a season. Only 3 of them are active now with Rivers retiring after 16 years. Manning, Favre, and Marino are the other 3 retired. The 3 active have played more than 14 seasons. Its not that common for a single QB to do. 

 

[BigEFly]

43 minutes ago, DoWorx said:

You are proud of this?

[LeanMeanGM]

12 minutes ago, BigEFly said:

You are proud of this?

[TEW]

1 hour ago, Utebird said:

I think the way offenses operate now a guy like Pitts doesn't fit the mold of a traditional in line blocking TE who can catch.

He's an an offensive weapon that one can get the ball to all over the field and could be a match up nightmare, and the same was said if guys like vernon davis and ebron?

I hate when scouts mention his lack of blocking ability, when was the last time kelce threw an in line block?

If I were to redraft kelce I think I could make a pretty good argument for taking him top 10, he's a game changer, question is, is Pitts?

Or is he just another guy with elite size speed ratio that beat up on a bunch of college defenses.

Ricky dudley was a top 10 pick???

I'm guessing whoever made that pick much like rich Kotite is longer employed in the nfl.

So here is my take on Pitts:

I don’t want an "offensive weapon” who doesn’t have a defined role at #6, or in the top 100 picks for that matter. We aren’t in a position to take tweeners. We need guys who can play every single snap in a base offense and be productive.

If Pitts is kind of like Zach Ertz (high volume receiving TE) then we shouldn’t be taking him at #6. No way, no how. Even if he’s better than Ertz. If Pitts is a freak of nature WR that is so big he looks like a TE, then sure, I want that kind of freak on my team.

But I do NOT want a guy without a clearly defined role, and I do NOT want a TE in the top 2 rounds of the draft. We have a good TE prospect on the roster already. We need help at WR. And pretty much every other position on the team. We don’t have the luxury of taking a TE in with our first pick.

If Pitts can be you’re #1 WR - a PURE wide receiver and not some ambiguous "weapon” — because, let’s face it, those guys never justify high draft picks on a production level — then I’m all in. 6’6” super athletic WR? YES! TE? NO!

[DoWorx]

35 minutes ago, BigEFly said:

You are proud of this?

better than Howie, you will see come April

[Alphagrand]

1 hour ago, LeanMeanGM said:

I’m not a fan but I think you could add Fields too

[garingovt2000]

Idea

1.  Washington football team needs a QB.  We trade Barnett and 6 for 19, 51, 74, Montez Sweat, and next years first rounder

2.  Trade Ertz and 37 to Jax to move up to 33 (first pick in round 2)

19 draft Rashod Bateman 

33 draft Zaven Collins 

51 - Top corner available (Newsome II)

Here was a mock draft I did based on that

 

So we upgrade at DE and save $7-8 million in the process and still land a top WR.    
 

Would you do it?