EMB Blog: 2021 Offseason

[devpool]

1 hour ago, eagle45 said:

I can't imagine the Dolphins would get more to trade out of 6 than we did, but if they do...

I can easily imagine it. When teams move up on draft day they move up knowing they're going to get their guy so they'll be willing to pay more. Pay before the draft and they're going to pay less because th guy they like isn't guaranteed to be there on draft day.

Howie is an idiot, should have stayed at 6 unless they were offered a ridiculous haul. Now we get to see him draft a middling talent at 12 because all the great players they identified will be taken in the top 10. If they really are trying to trade back into the top 10, he's an even bigger idiot. What an absolute Fing clown

[devpool]

5 minutes ago, Freshmilk said:

I'd be interested to learn which players you think are stupid and why?

I don't think there are many but if I had to guess at least one it would be Barnett. I don't think he means literally stupid, like unintelligent. Just football stupid which Barnett, with his 4 billion penalties, is

[greend]

9 minutes ago, devpool said:

I don't think there are many but if I had to guess at least one it would be Barnett. I don't think he means literally stupid, like unintelligent. Just football stupid which Barnett, with his 4 billion penalties, is

He seems to have trouble controlling his temper also, if memory serves right

[garingovt2000]

Old article but interesting on what to look for by position.  

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2760924-what-is-the-most-important-combine-event-for-each-nfl-position

[ManuManu]

28 minutes ago, devpool said:

I can easily imagine it. When teams move up on draft day they move up knowing they're going to get their guy so they'll be willing to pay more. Pay before the draft and they're going to pay less because th guy they like isn't guaranteed to be there on draft day.

Howie is an idiot, should have stayed at 6 unless they were offered a ridiculous haul. Now we get to see him draft a middling talent at 12 because all the great players they identified will be taken in the top 10. If they really are trying to trade back into the top 10, he's an even bigger idiot. What an absolute Fing clown

I think a 2022 first round pick from a non-playoff lock plus a mid round pick swap is a great haul. There’s risk in doing the deal early because a team might get desperate, but there’s also a risk the offer drops significantly or disappears entirely.

There is a lot to bash Howie about. This isn’t one of them. 

[Alphagrand]

1 hour ago, John_C said:

These rumors of trying to get back in the top 10 make sense.  The Eagles were generally praised when they made the early deal with Miami to move back to 12.  Adding a first next year, even a pick probably in the 20s, will have great value.  

However, it was always hard to shake the thought that they just moved themselves off of getting a true impact player in this draft.  Going from 6 to 12 meant the difference maker guys they could most use... Chase, Pitts, Smith, Waddle, Surtain, Horn, Sewell... would all be off the board.   They put themselves right into tier 2.  Their two division rivals will be scraping up the last two of the above players right in front of them.  Was it worth it?  Was it the best deal they were going to get?  Did they need to jump on it?  Time will tell.

Will be interesting to see what the cost is to move back up.  Going back to 8 or 9 would not be cheap.  The deals I’ve seen thrown around with 3rd and 5th rounders and future picks are pure fantasy.  Will also be interesting to see what Miami is able to do with the 6th pick.

This is what we will continue to deal with as long as clown owner and lackey are left in charge.  No matter what they do, you can assume they probably made a bad decision and you will very likely be correct.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/20/could-eagles-move-back-into-the-top-10/

The Eagles are not trading back up.  At least one of those "difference maker guys” you listed will still be on the board at #12.  The only way they would all be gone is one of the QBs, who are much better than Hurts, is still there — then the QB becomes the logical selection.

Whoever the pick is, there will be plenty of fans whining he can’t be any good because Howie didn’t stay at #6 and take him 

[Mike030270]

49 minutes ago, Freshmilk said:

I'd be interested to learn which players you think are stupid and why?

The ones who couldn't line up properly or the one who paused mid game to fix his gloves

[Alphagrand]

2 minutes ago, Mike030270 said:

The ones who couldn't line up properly or the one who paused mid game to fix his gloves

Brown should never have played another snap after Calais Campbell threw him down those imaginary stairs 

[austinfan]

The Eagles should struggle the next two years, but Miami wasn't expect to win more than 4 or 5 games last year after they dumped half the team.

There's a reason they play the games, Eagles will have a top OL, Sanders, Goedert, young WRs, a couple weapons out of the draft. Siriannis comes from a team that has had great success turning mediocre skill people into productive players. Two years ago Indy scored 361 points with Brissett throwing to over the hill Hilton, Pascal, Rogers, Campbell, Doyle and Ebron, with 4th rd RB Mack going for 1000 yards.

Gannon's defense should struggle out of the box, but he'll have a veteran DL, experienced safeties, a couple draft picks and who knows? Maybe giving CBs protection will turn guys who look like scrubs into players. Stranger things have happened.

It's a really good year for a rebuilding team to dumpster dive, teams that think they're playoff contenders won't be patient with later round and 2nd year players who don't have mini-camps and struggle in training camp, so there may be some bargains on the waiver wire as teams try to slip them onto the PS to make room for game ready veterans.

Right now the focus should be on adding assets, developing assets, then worry about winning games. Winning should be a byproduct of adding young talent.

As far as Miami trading back, who cares? Howie got good value, "woulda coulda shoulda" is not a recipe for success, if someone makes a good offer, you don't screw up a good thing hoping that something better might come along. As far as draft strategy, you ignore #6, and think in terms of #12, if a player you love unexpectedly falls, you use that Indy 3rd, move up 3 slots and grab him (12 to 9 does not require a king's ransom, and if it does, pass).

[greend]

[devpool]

16 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

I think a 2022 first round pick from a non-playoff lock plus a mid round pick swap is a great haul. There’s risk in doing the deal early because a team might get desperate, but there’s also a risk the offer drops significantly or disappears entirely.

There is a lot to bash Howie about. This isn’t one of them. 

We have completely different ideas of what a great haul is. The dolphins, at worst, will probably be picking in the middle of the first round next year. They were decent this past season and will likely be better this season. Wouldn't be shocked at all if they made it to the playoffs which makes the trade even worse. 

This wasn't a trade down from 14 to 20 where we likely weren't getting prime talent anyway. They were in a guaranteed position to get a top prospect. If the price drops on draft day, you keep the pick end up with a possible stud. We move back to right around the drop off in talent to pick up what will likely be a pick in the 20s next year where this team truly thrives when selecting talent (sarcasm).

I hope the dolphins get a truly great haul. Also factor in these rumors the eagles want to trade back into the top 10, if they do that then Howie is an absolute moron. This is definitely something to bash Howie about.  

[austinfan]

I doubt Howie trades down if he thought a "sure thing" was going to be there at 6, I'm sure they've already projected the top 5.

They probably don't see Waddle, Smith, et al as good enough to give up an extra 1st rd pick next year. They probably didn't think any of the QBs outside of Lawrence and Wilson worthy of #6, giving the miss rate on QBs in the top ten, if you're not 100% confident in the QB, pass.

Trading back to say #9 should cost either Indy or their own 3rd rd pick. Anything more, just say no. So if you told me I could get the same player I'd take at #6 at #9, by swapping a 2021 3rd for a 2022 1st, duh. And why would he trade back up for a player he didn't deem worthy of taking at #6?

[greend]

1 minute ago, austinfan said:

I doubt Howie trades down if he thought a "sure thing" was going to be there at 6, I'm sure they've already projected the top 5.

They probably don't see Waddle, Smith, et al as good enough to give up an extra 1st rd pick next year. They probably didn't think any of the QBs outside of Lawrence and Wilson worthy of #6, giving the miss rate on QBs in the top ten, if you're not 100% confident in the QB, pass.

Trading back to say #9 should cost either Indy or their own 3rd rd pick. Anything more, just say no. So if you told me I could get the same player I'd take at #6 at #9, by swapping a 2021 3rd for a 2022 1st, duh. And why would he trade back up for a player he didn't deem worthy of taking at #6?

Well, I'll sleep better now.

[eagle45]

36 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

I think a 2022 first round pick from a non-playoff lock plus a mid round pick swap is a great haul. There’s risk in doing the deal early because a team might get desperate, but there’s also a risk the offer drops significantly or disappears entirely.

There is a lot to bash Howie about. This isn’t one of them. 

If Miami trades out of 6 for more than we got, it’s a huge reason to bash him.

I like the concept of trading back, like the extra pick, questioned the timing from the beginning.  It’s Howie’s job to gauge the draft with other GMs.  If Miami gets more than we did, then he botched this too.

If they don’t, well, then he read it right.

[ManuManu]

13 minutes ago, devpool said:

We have completely different ideas of what a great haul is. The dolphins, at worst, will probably be picking in the middle of the first round next year. They were decent this past season and will likely be better this season. Wouldn't be shocked at all if they made it to the playoffs which makes the trade even worse. 

This wasn't a trade down from 14 to 20 where we likely weren't getting prime talent anyway. They were in a guaranteed position to get a top prospect. If the price drops on draft day, you keep the pick end up with a possible stud. We move back to right around the drop off in talent to pick up what will likely be a pick in the 20s next year where this team truly thrives when selecting talent (sarcasm).

I hope the dolphins get a truly great haul. Also factor in these rumors the eagles want to trade back into the top 10, if they do that then Howie is an absolute moron. This is definitely something to bash Howie about.  

Keep in mind next year’s picks are more valuable than this year’s by most accounts. We in all likelihood will have three first round picks that will give us the opportunity for both draft and trade optionality. When you don’t have a franchise QB that’s incredibly valuable. 

[eagle45]

5 minutes ago, austinfan said:

I doubt Howie trades down if he thought a "sure thing" was going to be there at 6, I'm sure they've already projected the top 5.

They probably don't see Waddle, Smith, et al as good enough to give up an extra 1st rd pick next year. They probably didn't think any of the QBs outside of Lawrence and Wilson worthy of #6, giving the miss rate on QBs in the top ten, if you're not 100% confident in the QB, pass.

Trading back to say #9 should cost either Indy or their own 3rd rd pick. Anything more, just say no. So if you told me I could get the same player I'd take at #6 at #9, by swapping a 2021 3rd for a 2022 1st, duh. And why would he trade back up for a player he didn't deem worthy of taking at #6?

That’s all fair.  The only rationale of trading up to 9 is if the player you’d have taken at 6 is still on the board.  Then you can basically say you traded a 3rd for a 2022 1st.

Of course, the Captain obvious math applies.  If there are 4 players on the board at 9 you value mostly equally, then you might as well keep the 3rd and sit until 12.

[ManuManu]

1 minute ago, eagle45 said:

If Miami trades out of 6 for more than we got, it’s a huge reason to bash him.

I like the concept of trading back, like the extra pick, questioned the timing from the beginning.  It’s Howie’s job to gauge the draft with other GMs.  If Miami gets more than we did, then he botched this too.

If they don’t, well, then he read it right.

It’s really easy to question it when you aren’t facing a deadline to make the move. 

Could a team come in late and offer the Dolphins more? I suppose. But imagine if it came out after the draft that we turned down a future 1 to move from 6 to 12. People would absolutely bash Howie for that. He can’t win with a lot of people. 

[Original Sin]

I never understood the , next years picks are more valuable than this years picks 

that all depends on the strength of the draft .

[eagle45]

10 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

It’s really easy to question it when you aren’t facing a deadline to make the move. 

Could a team come in late and offer the Dolphins more? I suppose. But imagine if it came out after the draft that we turned down a future 1 to move from 6 to 12. People would absolutely bash Howie for that. He can’t win with a lot of people. 

How often do you see a team trade down in round 1 a month before the draft?  It was a bit unusual...

[DeathByEagle]

1 minute ago, Original Sin said:

I never understood the , next years picks are more valuable than this years picks 

that all depends on the strength of the draft .

Reason is there was no combine this year which is the standard. Yes Pro Days are fine but they are meant to make their schools player to look great. There are not individual workouts, not in person interviews etc. In the end it comes down to game tape only this year. However with last years season a lot of players did not play so you have to look at the year before. Then even the players that did play, they did not play against the best players because certain schools and players did not play. 

In the end, its more risky in this years draft then the past and going forward so in sense makes next years picks a little more valuable when we will be back to normal and more ways to scout players. Yes the players might have just as much talent but the ways to scout and research are much harder this year. 

[RLC]

4 minutes ago, Original Sin said:

I never understood the , next years picks are more valuable than this years picks 

that all depends on the strength of the draft .

It's because there's the potential for future 1st rounders picks to be top 5 picks. Trading a top 10 pick in year 1 for a 1st round pick in year 2 is bad business. Trading a pick from 20-30 in year 1 for a 1st round pick in year 2 is good process. As we got a 1st rounder by trading down, there's a lot of potential. 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, RLC said:

It's because there's the potential for future 1st rounders picks to be top 5 picks. Trading a top 10 pick in year 1 for a 1st round pick in year 2 is bad business. Trading a pick from 20-30 in year 1 for a 1st round pick in year 2 is good process. As we got a 1st rounder by trading down, there's a lot of potential. 

The bolded seems to contradict the point you are making.

[RLC]

4 minutes ago, downundermike said:

The bolded seems to contradict the point you are making.

There's always risk in trading for future picks.

- Jags traded Ramsey and got picks in the 20s. Ditto Raiders with Mack.
- Miami got top 5 pick for Tunsil.

The ability to get the chance of a future top 10 pick, without losing much in return, is something you have to do. 

[aptosbird]

51 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

It’s really easy to question it when you aren’t facing a deadline to make the move. 

Could a team come in late and offer the Dolphins more? I suppose. But imagine if it came out after the draft that we turned down a future 1 to move from 6 to 12. People would absolutely bash Howie for that. He can’t win with a lot of people. 

Exactly...it is all about the relativism. The Eagles were part of 3 way trade in essence. There was a time frame that may not have been ideal, but the Eagles accomplished what they wanted by picking up the extra 1st...most importantly still getting a player of value in the next tier. Bashing Howie because Miami may make a better deal out of the 6 is irrelevant...because the Eagles got what  they were seeking....but some in here are just never happy

If the Eagles wanted a QB, they would have stayed put. If they had a particular player in mind, they would have stayed put....it is my belief that the eagles see a small group where value meets need. They may have changed their mind and feel a need to target a player...but I believe they are staying put

[ManuManu]

54 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

How often do you see a team trade down in round 1 a month before the draft?  It was a bit unusual...

The Browns and Titans traded out of the top two in the Goff/Wentz draft. The Colts traded down with Jets in the Darnold draft. That’s in the past five years off the top of my head.