EMB Blog: 2021 Offseason

[eagle45]

Looking forward to seeing our offense with 3 RBs on the field at the same time in Sanders, Gainwell, and Hurts.

[LeanMeanGM]

Just now, eagle45 said:

Looking forward to seeing our offense with 3 RBs on the field at the same time in Sanders, Gainwell, and Hurts.

That's not a fair comment at all. While he does have talent with his legs and has gotten some nice runs and scrambles, Gainwell is a QB at heart and grew up playing the position. 

[Iggles_Phan]

10 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

Looking forward to seeing our offense with 3 RBs on the field at the same time in Sanders, Gainwell, and Hurts.

9 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

That's not a fair comment at all. While he does have talent with his legs and has gotten some nice runs and scrambles, Gainwell is a QB at heart and grew up playing the position. 

 

[TEW]

1 hour ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Easier to find 'starters' when you have no quality on the roster.   

 

So, either you are right, or afan is right.  Afan has been talking about how Howie shouldn't be held responsible for the giant dumpster fire that became the salary cap, the lack of young talent, etc. because he had to do that to 'maintain the roster' at a Super Bowl contending level.  But, then you look at the bottom of the barrel teams... they don't have cap issues, they (normally) have a ton of draft capital, and finding a player to add that's 'better' than what they currently have is fairly simple, because what they have is not much. 

 

In other words, when you are at the bottom, there's no where to go but up.   When you are at the top, there's no where to go but down.   Yes, teams can maintain their status as laughingstocks.  Quite a few fit that narrative.  And a significant number.  But, others just bounce from the bottom to the top, then back down again.  Because maintaining that place at the very top of the pile is not easy.  Very few teams, by comparison are able to maintain that status for a significant length of time.    Hence, the statement, "Rebuilding is easier than maintaining."  Its proven by the way there are more teams that yo-yo up and down than teams that stay at the bottom of the barrel, and so few teams that can maintain their place at the elite level.   Check the history.  I made a falsifiable, objective statement.  Check the standings over the years and look at the number of teams that stay in the bottom 3rd year after year, the number of teams the bounce between bottom third, middle third and top third continually, and how many teams can actually maintain their status in the top third.   You choose whatever time frame you want.   Maybe 5 years, as that's the time that Howie and Doug had together.  Climbed the mountain and then came crashing down.  How many teams stay in the bottom third for those 5 years?  How many teams stay in the top third?  and How many teams bounce all over the place?    

I mean, there’s no getting around that Howie plays a part in the team’s current position. The question is who was pulling for which players and strategy? From Laurie’s press conference I think Pederson was the one pounding the table to keep re-signing vets. Lurie basically said it outright.

[Iggles_Phan]

7 minutes ago, TEW said:

I mean, there’s no getting around that Howie plays a part in the team’s current position. The question is who was pulling for which players and strategy? From Laurie’s press conference I think Pederson was the one pounding the table to keep re-signing vets. Lurie basically said it outright.

And, all I said at the beginning of this conversation was, "Its easier to build from nothing than to maintain."    Not sure what this response has to do with that.     

 

But, you are very right... Howie does indeed play a part and as the GM, he needs to be smarter than to just cave to table pounding.  A bad decision is a bad decision regardless of who is pulling for that bad decision to be made.   It's his job to parse the information, the different pulls from various sides and then make the final determination.   That's what comes with the title Exec. VP and GM.  It is his call to make those decisions.  And 'with great power comes great responsibility.'   That job title means if it goes well, it's because of him.  If it goes poorly, it's because of him.   In other words, it all falls on him when it falls... not that he gets to brush off the debris from those that have crumpled around him and he gets to stand on that rubble to make the next selection.  It might also fall on others along the way down, but ultimately, it is his responsibility and his responsibility alone.

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, TEW said:

I mean, there’s no getting around that Howie plays a part in the team’s current position. The question is who was pulling for which players and strategy? From Laurie’s press conference I think Pederson was the one pounding the table to keep re-signing vets. Lurie basically said it outright.

The only constant in all of the drafting / roster problems is Howie Roseman.

[HazletonEagle]

13 minutes ago, downundermike said:

The only constant in all of the drafting / roster problems is Howie Roseman.

But he was the constant in building the super bowl team as well...

[austinfan]

37 minutes ago, downundermike said:

100% BS.  He didn't have the talent to sustain it because he failed in multiple drafts.  2016 draft, 1 of 8 players left on the roster.  2017 draft, 1 of 7 players left on the roster.  2018 you got Goedert, Sweat and Mailata, 2019 you got Sanders.  He then compounded his bad drafting by trading picks for mid season guys that did not stay with the team.  

2020 you draft the wrong receiver, a back up QB when your team is deficient at WR, LB and CB, a project LB in round 3, and a bunch of guys that do not look like they will be anything more than role players at best.  Then you duplicate 2017 problem this year by drafting a player with an extensive injury history.

And I do not understand the "short cut" built on the base of the 2012-13 drafts.  We got Cox, Johnson and Ertz from those drafts.  Our best defensive player, our second best offensive lineman.  Those drafts are as good as any draft since, especially considering one you add Foles, Kendricks, Curry you are talking about contributors to the Super Bowl.

And before you try to blame Chip, Douglas, or any member of multiple coaching staff, remember, the only constant in all of this is Howie Roseman.

Meaningless numbers, only two things matter in the draft, your miss rate at the top of the draft and your hit rate after pick #100. Because only about 10% after pick 100 become solid starters. Once you take that into account, Howie's actual drafting performance was about average, and we don't know how much that was influenced by Schwartz and Doug. For example, Reagor v Jefferson, who lobbied for Reagor?

The problem with the 2012-13 drafts is they're all 31-32 now. That is, they were a good enough core for a run, but not enough talent to sustain a run.

Chip was a problem, only player to contribute to the SB team from his last two drafts was Allen #224 - 2014, Watkins #101-2014, Agholor #20-2015, Hicks #84-2015 (7g). he ran off McCoy and DeSean, and replaced them with high priced FAs like Murray and Carroll.

2016 draft, Wentz #2, Seumalo #79, Smallwood #153, Vaitai #164, Mills #233 all contributed in 2017.

[ManuManu]

Man, I’d have sat tight at 12 and let Smith go to NY. 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, austinfan said:

Meaningless numbers, only two things matter in the draft, your miss rate at the top of the draft and your hit rate after pick #100. Because only about 10% after pick 100 become solid starters. Once you take that into account, Howie's actual drafting performance was about average, and we don't know how much that was influenced by Schwartz and Doug. For example, Reagor v Jefferson, who lobbied for Reagor?

Your made up metric is not fooling anyone.  You have created this narrative that 2nd and 3rd round picks do not matter, because Howie has failed in those rounds constantly.  Whether it was bad picks, or trading those resources for players that did not help, it is all a Howie problem. 

Howie's draft performance is below average, and there is tons of sites with metrics showing that.

6 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

But he was the constant in building the super bowl team as well...

That is the exception, not the rule.

[RLC]

3 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

Man, I’d have sat tight at 12 and let Smith go to NY. 

I've spent a lot of time thinking about this. If Dallas doesn't accept our offer, they might take the Bears' offer and then the Giants take Smith. We'd then be stuck at 12 with Slater/Paye.

It easily could have been worse.

[LeanMeanGM]

3 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

Man, I’d have sat tight at 12 and let Smith go to NY. 

I was against picking Paye but if they ended the draft with Paye + Bears 2022 1st I would have done cartwheels. 

[Iggles_Phan]

6 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

But he was the constant in building the super bowl team as well...

Actually, he was one of many variables during that time.   During that time there was: Doug Pederson, Frank Reich, John DeFilippo, Jim Schwartz, Joe Douglas and a few others.  

 

He's in the same position then as now, but there were a lot of others around him as well, nearly all of whom are gone now.  

[beto_eagles]

9 minutes ago, downundermike said:

That is the exception, not the rule.

I'm not a Howie fan, but that's a bit unfair. The team that he built made the playoffs 3 straight years, so I wouldn't call it an exception. 

[Iggles_Phan]

3 minutes ago, RLC said:

I've spent a lot of time thinking about this. If Dallas doesn't accept our offer, they might take the Bears' offer and then the Giants take Smith. We'd then be stuck at 12 with Slater/Paye.

It easily could have been worse.

The only way that this makes sense is for the Eagles to make the trade to 10 with Dallas, and then flip 10 to the Bears at a net of the first round pick in 2022 and the cost of the 3rd round pick in 2021.  All things considered, that's a good trade off.  But, you are correct, sitting at 12 is no guarantee that the Giants still don't make that trade and not grab Smith.  

The Bears gave up #20, #164, and 2022 1st and 4th.  That would be worth it.    But adding an actual player for the offense is always a welcome thing.  When was the last time that happened?

[CouchKing]

If Jalen Hurts doesn’t work out next year, we trade for Nick Foles and book our Super Bowl travel plans. Or Russell Wilson trade. Or free agent signing and a draft pick.
I am hoping we don’t have a top 10 pick next year, but if we do then we’ll be right where we need to be. I’d hate to use all these extra picks we have to move up.

[austinfan]

You can get too cute on draft day, Howie got the 2022 1st and his targeted player. Gave up a 2021 3rd, got a 2021 6th and then traded two marginal picks for a 2022 5th.

That's good enough, of course, there's always the hypothetical deal you might have made.

But if Devonta is as good as advertised, you don't risk missing out on a potentially elite player - isn't that exactly what people **** about here all the time?

[HazletonEagle]

22 minutes ago, downundermike said:

 

That is the exception, not the rule.

what the hell is that supposed to mean? You act as if other GMs are winning it every year. Winning a superbowl is an exception for just about every GM ever. Theyve all failed to even reach the big game more than theyve won it. 

[HazletonEagle]

20 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Actually, he was one of many variables during that time.   During that time there was: Doug Pederson, Frank Reich, John DeFilippo, Jim Schwartz, Joe Douglas and a few others.  

 

He's in the same position then as now, but there were a lot of others around him as well, nearly all of whom are gone now.  

aaaand, he just had a nice looking draft, made a couple cheap, smart signings and might be having us back on the upswing. We will have cap room and tons more draft picks next year. We will see where he takes us from here. History has shown he can rebuild very, very quickly.

16 minutes ago, beto_eagles said:

I'm not a Howie fan, but that's a bit unfair. The team that he built made the playoffs 3 straight years, so I wouldn't call it an exception. 

correct. that was one of the most ridiculous things thats been said in here in a while.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

what the hell is that supposed to mean? You act as if other GMs are winning it every year. Winning a superbowl is an exception for just about every GM ever. Theyve all failed to even reach the big game more than theyve won it. 

What I am saying, is he is not good at drafting, not good at free agent acquisition, and just happened to hit one year and it worked out.  This narrative that afan is trying to create that it was not sustainable is utter BS.  If Howie had not failed multiple drafts in a row, while using draft resources in bad trades trying to make up for bad drafting, while handing out bad contracts ruining our 2021 and 2022 cap situations, we would not be rebuilding right now, we would be retooling.

[austinfan]

49 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

And, all I said at the beginning of this conversation was, "Its easier to build from nothing than to maintain."    Not sure what this response has to do with that.     

 

But, you are very right... Howie does indeed play a part and as the GM, he needs to be smarter than to just cave to table pounding.  A bad decision is a bad decision regardless of who is pulling for that bad decision to be made.   It's his job to parse the information, the different pulls from various sides and then make the final determination.   That's what comes with the title Exec. VP and GM.  It is his call to make those decisions.  And 'with great power comes great responsibility.'   That job title means if it goes well, it's because of him.  If it goes poorly, it's because of him.   In other words, it all falls on him when it falls... not that he gets to brush off the debris from those that have crumpled around him and he gets to stand on that rubble to make the next selection.  It might also fall on others along the way down, but ultimately, it is his responsibility and his responsibility alone.

Very few GMs have that kind of pull with successful HCs. And the job of the GM is to get your HC the players he thinks he needs to win, or get a new HC. Hmmm . . .

And Schwartz probably took the DC job with the understanding that he'd have input into personnel decisions on defense.

Very few GMs simply override their coaches, very few coaches have veto power over personnel, for most teams it's a balancing act, the more successful the HC, the more pull he has.

AR in KC is an exception, he wrangled personnel control here, it went badly amiss, and he learned his limitations.

 

[Connecticut Eagle]

2 hours ago, justrelax said:

Get another QB, Ask a silly question, get a silly answer.

Putting that higher education to work.

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

aaaand, he just had a nice looking draft, made a couple cheap, smart signings and might be having us back on the upswing. We will have cap room and tons more draft picks next year. We will see where he takes us from here. History has shown he can rebuild very, very quickly.

correct. that was one of the most ridiculous things thats been said in here in a while.

Dude, we only have 22 million in cap space next year, and if all the draft picks make the team, I believe it will be less than 15 million with the rookie contracts.  On March 10th we had 73 million in 2022 cap room, but due to Howie's roster mismanagement and bad contracts, he had to sacrifice 2022 and 2023 cap space trying to clean up his mess.

[austinfan]

1 minute ago, downundermike said:

What I am saying, is he is not good at drafting, not good at free agent acquisition, and just happened to hit one year and it worked out.  This narrative that afan is trying to create that it was not sustainable is utter BS.  If Howie had not failed multiple drafts in a row, while using draft resources in bad trades trying to make up for bad drafting, while handing out bad contracts ruining our 2021 and 2022 cap situations, we would not be rebuilding right now, we would be retooling.

Howie is average at drafting, at the top of draft day dealing, good at free agent acquisition (DeSean was his only bad move in almost a decade, Malik and Wallace were just bad injury luck, when durable players get hurt it is what it is, Hargrave is a top pass rushing DT, Bradham, Jenkins, Brooks, McLeod, et al) - Chip was bad at free agent acquisitions.

Howie's one bad stretch was when he tried too hard to keep the window open when he should have let a couple players walk instead of extensions and let the chips fall where they may.

Even with all the disruptions of the last decade, they won 10 games three times from 2011-2020, 9 games twice, made the playoffs 4 times and won a SB. And that was dealing with AR's last couple years and Chip.

Since he took over in 2016, 42-37-1 with 3 PO appearances and a SB.

[EagleJoe8]

1 hour ago, downundermike said:

My first one it was a touch sore, but I slept on it with no issues.  Tetanus shot was far worse for me in regards to soreness.

About 3 or 4 years ago, I got both a flu and Tetanus shot during the same DR appt. One in each arm. What a miserable night that was.