Ertz trade talk

[Bwestbrook36]

1 hour ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Russell Wilson is not a run first QB. I would argue that Kyler Murray is not a run first QB either. Both possess the ability to run, both can make plays with their feet but that doesn't make them a run first QB. Certainly Wilson is not, he tries to buy time for a receiver to get open.

Murray struggles when defenses contain his running. Murray also had 133 runs for 800 yds and 11 rushing touchdowns. He runs alot. 

[UK_EaglesFan89]

15 minutes ago, Bwestbrook36 said:

Murray struggles when defenses contain his running. Murray also had 133 runs for 800 yds and 11 rushing touchdowns. He runs alot. 

Oh there's no doubt he runs a lot, Wilson runs a lot, Watson runs a fair amount. Does that make them run first QBs though?

[Bwestbrook36]

11 minutes ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Oh there's no doubt he runs a lot, Wilson runs a lot, Watson runs a fair amount. Does that make them run first QBs though?

Not them but Murray is 

[Cochis_Calhoun]

8 hours ago, jsdarkstar said:

Ertz should garner at least a 3rd round pick. 

After last season in this years market?  I'm not sure he is. His catch rate was barely 50% last year, another thing that people are starting to notice is he averages around 3 yards after the catch for his career when guys like Kittle, Kelce and Waller are close to doubling that and more, even average guys like Evan Engram manage 4.5 and his fellow Eagles Tight Ends both managed over 4 last year. He's a decent pass catcher (or rather he was) but when you need someone to break a tackle for the first down he's not in the same league as the best at his position, but he's contracted for less than a year and wants to be paid like the best at his position. Last year showed he isn't willing to put it on the line without that long term deal.

We'll be lucky to get a 4th

 

[Bwestbrook36]

11 minutes ago, Cochis_Calhoun said:

Last year showed he isn't willing to put it on the line without that long term deal

He played with a broken rib and a lacerated kidney in 2019. He put it all on the line hoping for a new contract or to be traded to get that contract else where. Howie didn't bother to do either which led to this past season. It doesn't make it right but, the whole year was a disaster that once again points to Howie being involved in some way. 

[Cochis_Calhoun]

44 minutes ago, Bwestbrook36 said:

He played with a broken rib and a lacerated kidney in 2019. He put it all on the line hoping for a new contract or to be traded to get that contract else where. Howie didn't bother to do either which led to this past season. It doesn't make it right but, the whole year was a disaster that once again points to Howie being involved in some way. 

in 2019 he had 2 more full seasons of contract to run, also while not diminishing the pain he played through, he played the remainder of the Dallas game he got the rib injury in fuelled by adrenaline and was then out for the rest of the season, and if the extent of the damage had been clear to him or the team at the time he would never have been sent back in, indeed it would've been negligent to send him back in.

Again, though my overall point from earlier in the thread remains, he's the 7th best paid tight end in the league and that's a decent level for him, his receiving numbers are largely a product of a TE heavy offense and his yards after catch are nowhere near the level of the guys he wants to be paid like.

To illustrate my point I'll expand on the Yards after catch issue in my earlier post, Ertz has never bettered more than a third of his total yards coming after the catch, George Kittle in 2018 and 19 got over 60% of his yards after the catch, this last year Ertz barely broke 25% yards after the catch while Kittle in a down year still made 50% of his yards after the catch.

Over the last 3 years Kelce has broken 23 tackles, Kittle broke 18 and Ertz broke 8.

Kelce's yards per game average for his career is 71, Kittles is 67.5 (and that's on a 4 year career with a rookie year where he was second string), Ertz is 51.9.

Ertz wants to be paid like Kittle and Kelce and he just isn't on their level, he doesn't deserve that money.

Goedert is almost certainly better than Ertz now.

 

 

[Infam]

5 hours ago, Cochis_Calhoun said:

in 2019 he had 2 more full seasons of contract to run, also while not diminishing the pain he played through, he played the remainder of the Dallas game he got the rib injury in fuelled by adrenaline and was then out for the rest of the season, and if the extent of the damage had been clear to him or the team at the time he would never have been sent back in, indeed it would've been negligent to send him back in.

Again, though my overall point from earlier in the thread remains, he's the 7th best paid tight end in the league and that's a decent level for him, his receiving numbers are largely a product of a TE heavy offense and his yards after catch are nowhere near the level of the guys he wants to be paid like.

To illustrate my point I'll expand on the Yards after catch issue in my earlier post, Ertz has never bettered more than a third of his total yards coming after the catch, George Kittle in 2018 and 19 got over 60% of his yards after the catch, this last year Ertz barely broke 25% yards after the catch while Kittle in a down year still made 50% of his yards after the catch.

Over the last 3 years Kelce has broken 23 tackles, Kittle broke 18 and Ertz broke 8.

Kelce's yards per game average for his career is 71, Kittles is 67.5 (and that's on a 4 year career with a rookie year where he was second string), Ertz is 51.9.

Ertz wants to be paid like Kittle and Kelce and he just isn't on their level, he doesn't deserve that money.

Goedert is almost certainly better than Ertz now.

He looked close when Wentz pretty much threw every ball possible his way, but never really got there even then.

[RememberTheKoy]

6 hours ago, Cochis_Calhoun said:

After last season in this years market?  I'm not sure he is. His catch rate was barely 50% last year, another thing that people are starting to notice is he averages around 3 yards after the catch for his career when guys like Kittle, Kelce and Waller are close to doubling that and more, even average guys like Evan Engram manage 4.5 and his fellow Eagles Tight Ends both managed over 4 last year. He's a decent pass catcher (or rather he was) but when you need someone to break a tackle for the first down he's not in the same league as the best at his position, but he's contracted for less than a year and wants to be paid like the best at his position. Last year showed he isn't willing to put it on the line without that long term deal.

We'll be lucky to get a 4th

 

 

This. 

Ertz value has plummeted after this past season and the current cap situation league wide. 

I'll go a step further and say we will be lucky to get any lick at all for Ertz.  I think the most likely scenario at this point is that we will be forced to just release him. 

[Mike030270]

On 2/20/2021 at 10:39 AM, Portyansky said:

But teams also understand he wants a massive contract 

He wants Kelce/Kittle money when he's not worth Kelce/Kittle money

On 2/20/2021 at 10:43 AM, DeathByEagle said:

Which is perfect. He gets to play his butt off to prove he deserves that contract. Also that contract wont come till the following year which will be a better year cap wise for teams. 

He may not get a ton in value back for the Eagles but they will get a trade partner to to get something out of him. Im still guessing in the 4th round range. Lets be honest, Zach has only had 1 bad year which was during a year the entire team played poor and he had a injury on top of that. He has value to teams. esp those few that are close to a SB team. 

Seahawks seam to be my top team for him. They like vet TEs and have not been afraid to trade for them. Wilson wants weapons and the team will do what they can to get him some this year. 

Wilson wants protection more than weapons. Doubt they trade for him

[John Blutarski]

1 hour ago, RememberTheKoy said:

 

This. 

Ertz value has plummeted after this past season and the current cap situation league wide. 

I'll go a step further and say we will be lucky to get any lick at all for Ertz.  I think the most likely scenario at this point is that we will be forced to just release him. 

Agreed. Other teams also realize that the Eagles are in cap hell and have no choice but to release guys like this. You add that fact along with Ertz's terrible year last year and his value is way down. If they can get a late round pick at this point, take it. They can't keep these guys on the roster because they need the cap relief.

[Random Reglar]

11 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Russell Wilson is not a run first QB. I would argue that Kyler Murray is not a run first QB either. Both possess the ability to run, both can make plays with their feet but that doesn't make them a run first QB. Certainly Wilson is not, he tries to buy time for a receiver to get open.

Ok,  let's just call them running QBs.

QBs who pile up a lot of running yards - over 500.

Let's call the team a run first team.  and the QB a running QB.

There were 4 in that category last year .  Lamar Jackson,  Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson,  Cam Newton.

If Jalen Hurts played enough games,  he would've hit the 500 rushing yards mark.

Running QBs are more rare as starters in the NFL.  But there are plenty who do well in college and don't get a shot to play QB in the NFL.

Typically, when running QBs do get a shot,  they either do well or ok, rarely bad.

I'm not too focused on whether or not the running QB (the QB who piles up the rushing yards) does or does not want to complete passes or will take off and run.  I'm looking for rushing yards and fast, things like that. 

 

[DeathByEagle]

1 hour ago, Random Reglar said:

Ok,  let's just call them running QBs.

QBs who pile up a lot of running yards - over 500.

Let's call the team a run first team.  and the QB a running QB.

There were 4 in that category last year .  Lamar Jackson,  Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson,  Cam Newton.

If Jalen Hurts played enough games,  he would've hit the 500 rushing yards mark.

Running QBs are more rare as starters in the NFL.  But there are plenty who do well in college and don't get a shot to play QB in the NFL.

Typically, when running QBs do get a shot,  they either do well or ok, rarely bad.

I'm not too focused on whether or not the running QB (the QB who piles up the rushing yards) does or does not want to complete passes or will take off and run.  I'm looking for rushing yards and fast, things like that. 

 

Correct title is Scrambling QB :)

[Random Reglar]

58 minutes ago, DeathByEagle said:

Correct title is Scrambling QB 🙂

No, I'm talking about running QB.  As in, read option, and the QB runs for yards, and you do that a lot, and your team has the #1 rushing offense in the NFL,  your QB sets QB rushing records,  you go to the playoffs every year,  you have a regular season record of 30-7 with that QB.   Like the Ravens and Lamar Jackson.

Scrambling is not something you typically do on RUN plays.  And you have a lot of run plays for your running QB,  not just read option,  but a number of different running plays involving the running QB.

Yeah, I'm not talking "scrambling" QB or "mobile" QB.  I'm talking about having a QB back there who is big and fast like a running back, and using him like a running back.  But, there would be some passes too.

 

[eagle45]

23 minutes ago, Random Reglar said:

No, I'm talking about running QB.  As in, read option, and the QB runs for yards, and you do that a lot, and your team has the #1 rushing offense in the NFL,  your QB sets QB rushing records,  you go to the playoffs every year,  you have a regular season record of 30-7 with that QB.   Like the Ravens and Lamar Jackson.

Scrambling is not something you typically do on RUN plays.  And you have a lot of run plays for your running QB,  not just read option,  but a number of different running plays involving the running QB.

Yeah, I'm not talking "scrambling" QB or "mobile" QB.  I'm talking about having a QB back there who is big and fast like a running back, and using him like a running back.  But, there would be some passes too.

 

Yea let's not do that.

[DeathByEagle]

26 minutes ago, Random Reglar said:

No, I'm talking about running QB.  As in, read option, and the QB runs for yards, and you do that a lot, and your team has the #1 rushing offense in the NFL,  your QB sets QB rushing records,  you go to the playoffs every year,  you have a regular season record of 30-7 with that QB.   Like the Ravens and Lamar Jackson.

Scrambling is not something you typically do on RUN plays.  And you have a lot of run plays for your running QB,  not just read option,  but a number of different running plays involving the running QB.

Yeah, I'm not talking "scrambling" QB or "mobile" QB.  I'm talking about having a QB back there who is big and fast like a running back, and using him like a running back.  But, there would be some passes too.

 

Thats still a Scrambling QB in NFL terms. 

[UK_EaglesFan89]

30 minutes ago, Random Reglar said:

Like the Ravens and Lamar Jackson.

How many AFCCG games has he appeared in?

[eagle45]

3 minutes ago, DeathByEagle said:

Thats still a Scrambling QB in NFL terms. 

I just think of it as a bad idea in NFL terms.

[Random Reglar]

1 hour ago, eagle45 said:

Yea let's not do that.

I would say,  Yeah, do that!!!

Like the Ravens.  30-7 in the regular season.

Obviously it would be difficult to reach what the Ravens achieved,  because Jalen Hurts is at 1-3, and the Eagles would have to go 29-4,  and that seems impossible.

But the Eagles could, in theory at least,  do as well as the Ravens, going 30-7 over that span of games.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

How many AFCCG games has he appeared in?

Not less than Wentz, in fewer years.

[Random Reglar]

1 hour ago, DeathByEagle said:

Thats still a Scrambling QB in NFL terms. 

You don't understand the difference between a run play and a pass play?

I just got here, and I can tell already that you do know the difference between a scramble off a pass play and a normal QB run.

 

OT a bit.   Of QBs drafted since 2009,  there have been 37 QBs drafted in the 1st round.   1 of those QBs has won a Super Bowl. Mahomes.  3 of those QBs have gotten there.  Mahomes, Newton, Goff.

There have been 9 running QBs who have been given at least 16 starts who ran for at least 500 yards in a season at least once.  1 of those QBs has won a Super Bowl,  Wilson, 3 of those QBs have gotten there.  Wilson, Newton, Kaepernick.

So,  a running QB drafted since 2009 is 4 times more likely than a first round  draft pick drafted since 2009 to make the Super Bowl and to win the Super Bowl. z

Running QBs, drafted since 2009, have a 33% chance of making the Super Bowl.  First Round draft pick QBs since 2009 have a less than 10% chance of making the Super Bowl.

Jalen Hurts, although he hasn't yet run for 500 yards in a season, is likely to hit 500 yards rushing in a season, putting him in the category of QBs that get to the Super Bowl at least once 33%.

The Eagles have a long tradition of running QBs,  running for over 500 yards in a season at least once.  Randall Cunninham's top rushing yards season was 942,  Donovan McNabb's top rushing yards season was 629.  Michael Vick's top was 1039 for the Falcons and 676 with the Eagles.  It seems to me that Hurts can fall into this tradition.

 

[DeathByEagle]

3 hours ago, Random Reglar said:

You don't understand the difference between a run play and a pass play?

I just got here, and I can tell already that you do know the difference between a scramble off a pass play and a normal QB run.

 

OT a bit.   Of QBs drafted since 2009,  there have been 37 QBs drafted in the 1st round.   1 of those QBs has won a Super Bowl. Mahomes.  3 of those QBs have gotten there.  Mahomes, Newton, Goff.

There have been 9 running QBs who have been given at least 16 starts who ran for at least 500 yards in a season at least once.  1 of those QBs has won a Super Bowl,  Wilson, 3 of those QBs have gotten there.  Wilson, Newton, Kaepernick.

So,  a running QB drafted since 2009 is 4 times more likely than a first round  draft pick drafted since 2009 to make the Super Bowl and to win the Super Bowl. z

Running QBs, drafted since 2009, have a 33% chance of making the Super Bowl.  First Round draft pick QBs since 2009 have a less than 10% chance of making the Super Bowl.

Jalen Hurts, although he hasn't yet run for 500 yards in a season, is likely to hit 500 yards rushing in a season, putting him in the category of QBs that get to the Super Bowl at least once 33%.

The Eagles have a long tradition of running QBs,  running for over 500 yards in a season at least once.  Randall Cunninham's top rushing yards season was 942,  Donovan McNabb's top rushing yards season was 629.  Michael Vick's top was 1039 for the Falcons and 676 with the Eagles.  It seems to me that Hurts can fall into this tradition.

 

I started in a Div 1 school and played shortly in the NFL, What you are describing is a Scrambling style QB, also known as a Duel Threat QB. 99% of the world categorizes a running QB as a Scrambler/Duel Threat QB if you are giving them a title. Like a "Mobile QB" or "Gunslinger" style QB. So yes Qbs that run the ball by play design are still titled Scrambling QBs. Google Scrambling Qbs, then Running QBs. You will get the exact same articles. 

You mentioned Cunningham? Randall even wrote a book calling "Im still Scrambling"

Maybe your too young to remember the hat as well 

https://www.amazon.com/Still-Scrambling-Randall-Cunningham-1993-09-01/dp/B01FJ01TAU

[DeathByEagle]

5 hours ago, eagle45 said:

I just think of it as a bad idea in NFL terms.

The QB is not a bad idea, its the coaches scheme thats a bad idea. 

[NOTW]

On 2/23/2021 at 7:33 PM, jsdarkstar said:

Ertz should garner at least a 3rd round pick. 

that's kinda where I'm at.  I don't get the 5th round pick talk.  He's been one of the top TEs in the league.  He had a down year this year but was injured and the team stunk and had drama.  So another team will be thinking a fresh start will get him back to his level before this season.

[NOTW]

A playoff team that wants to add a weapon to their offense should want to give a 3rd, maybe even a 2nd.  You never know what GM will get desperate to add talent.

[UK_EaglesFan89]

8 hours ago, Random Reglar said:

Not less than Wentz, in fewer years.

Your point being?

[Bloodtype_Green]

7 hours ago, NOTW said:

A playoff team that wants to add a weapon to their offense should want to give a 3rd, maybe even a 2nd.  You never know what GM will get desperate to add talent.

That would be great, but I doubt it.  The NFL isn't lacking in TE talent so I don't see teams trading cheap young talent for an expensive declining veteran.  My guess is a 5th.