EMB Blog: 2022 OTAs thru Pre-Season

[greend]

On 5/28/2022 at 3:24 PM, austinfan said:

In a young QB it is. Means he's trying to make plays instead of just dumping it off at the first sign of pressure. Nor did he throw a lot of interceptions, so he's either pulling it down and running or throwing the ball away. His int % was the same as Ryan and better than Carr, Herbert, Allen and Burrow.

Because he runs instead of checking down. Cmon man

[Infam]

28 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

The biggest trouble with the new one... a pilot the age of Cruise's character would have been retired from flying about 30 years ago.  "Pappy" Boyington back in 1942 got the nickname "Gramps" (later changed to Pappy) due to his advanced age.   He was 31.  That's unheard of for a fighter pilot.  Fighter pilots age out faster than NFL running backs.

Haven‘t watched it yet but I think he‘s an instructor now, so I guess he can be older doing that.

[bpac55]

1 hour ago, Iggles_Phan said:

The biggest trouble with the new one... a pilot the age of Cruise's character would have been retired from flying about 30 years ago.  "Pappy" Boyington back in 1942 got the nickname "Gramps" (later changed to Pappy) due to his advanced age.   He was 31.  That's unheard of for a fighter pilot.  Fighter pilots age out faster than NFL running backs.

To an extent.  He wasn't an active combat pilot, he was a test pilot.  Think of him as Chuck Yeager in the film.  Yes, for him to fly an active mission is a bit far-fetched but just a minor thing in an otherwise terrific movie. 

Or if you look at Jimmy Doolittle, who was 44 I believe when the raid took place.  Yes, silly to compare Tom Cruise to two absolute legends and heroes but just giving some context. 

[Swoop]

On 5/28/2022 at 3:24 PM, austinfan said:

In a young QB it is. Means he's trying to make plays instead of just dumping it off at the first sign of pressure. Nor did he throw a lot of interceptions, so he's either pulling it down and running or throwing the ball away. His int % was the same as Ryan and better than Carr, Herbert, Allen and Burrow.

I'm going to use specifically Carr (though roughly the same can be said for all of them). The difference in INT% between the two is literally .1 in favor of Hurts. What you're conveniently failing to mention is that Carr had almost the same number of completions that Hurts did total passing attempts. 

Them being that close in percentage isn't a positive for Hurts the way you're spinning it. It isn't a positive when someone can throw the ball 194 more times and have virtually the same percentage.

I'll save you from the obvious response, if you're even capable of giving one. I understand what you're saying and how the percentages are calculated. What I'm saying is you're wrong if you believe Hurts would've maintained that percentage if they didn't consistently take the ball out of his hands.

[greendestiny27]

Listening to ITB. The rumors about that damn Halaby having more say is coming to fruition. The analytical guys will now have even more authority in the draft and scouting process. Dawk said there was a lot of in fighting, now this is adding up more with all these people fleeing. Analytical department seemed to have won the war and will now have major pull in the draft. Julian also will have an official position, though I guess that was inevitable. I'm guessing Halaby is being groomed to eventually be Julian's GM. 

[eagle45]

I realize an NFL FO crunches an enormous amount of data…but all of that data leads to infinitesimally small increments of improvement in the draft…all of which is immediately washed out the back door if the coach and GM aren’t on the same page between system/needs/fit for the picks.

So I really do not worry about losing FO personnel when the same guy is in charge.  Howie has had ups and downs…but all the deck chair shuffling around him will still be small measure to that success or failure.

I’m more concerned about the extreme nepotism in this FO (although that is hardly unprecedented around the NFL).  

[RLC]

17 minutes ago, greendestiny27 said:

Listening to ITB. The rumors about that damn Halaby having more say is coming to fruition. The analytical guys will now have even more authority in the draft and scouting process. Dawk said there was a lot of in fighting, now this is adding up more with all these people fleeing. Analytical department seemed to have won the war and will now have major pull in the draft. Julian also will have an official position, though I guess that was inevitable. I'm guessing Halaby is being groomed to eventually be Julian's GM. 

Good. Analytics should win.

[hputenis]

11 hours ago, Arthur Jackson said:

you guys all suck at talking about the eagles

Why don't you take your biscuits, tea, and bad teeth somewhere else you scullywag?  

[eagle45]

8 minutes ago, RLC said:

Good. Analytics should win.

While I tend to agree, I don’t think analytics are as well-defined in the NFL as they are in MLB.  Players are more interdependent, assignments are more ambiguous.  Baseball players are on an island with an obvious assignment.

For instance, PFF’s stats basically have "first and last” granularity…if you are #1 on their list, you are probably pretty good.  If you are dead last, you are probably pretty bad.  Everything else is a bunch of noise.

[RLC]

1 minute ago, eagle45 said:

While I tend to agree, I don’t think analytics are as well-defined in the NFL as they are in MLB.  Players are more interdependent, assignments are more ambiguous.  Baseball players are on an island with an obvious assignment.

You like athletes and analytics prioritizes athletes. Analytics also allows for more context-based production, ie 500 yards in the SEC could be better than 900 yards in the Big 12. The biggest fallacy about analytics is that they don't like production. Analytics loves production, it's just in context.

Scouting obviously still matters, but it should no longer be the priority.

[hputenis]

8 hours ago, jamiller said:

Absolutely not.  Time to go on the offensive.😁

You create banal (vanilla, non sexual, non-wtf you know what I mean) interaction with her and over simple things (drop some food or something pleasant or deliver something) but when you speak you start nice and say, I am here, happy to do more, if you need this or that or need to make out with me or need me to pick up yada yada yada.  You MUST (100% MUST) always put your self in the good Fxxx zone and not the Friend Zone.

Trust me. I am a professional and I am licensed.*  

*I am not a professional and I am not licensed. And I am an idiot.  But still, my points are valid.

 

 

There's no "b" in this word my friend.  

[LeanMeanGM]

1 hour ago, Iggles_Phan said:

He will be a very interesting player to keep an eye on.  Which is a little weird to say about a nose tackle. 

If Davis is what his potential allows him to be, it could be huge for this defense.  We'll see if he can live up to his potential.  No other defensive player in this draft, including Hutchinson, has the ceiling of Davis.

Yea, I think he’ll end up being a fine player. Just not so sure he’ll be the dominant force his rookie year. 

[pgcd3]

2 minutes ago, RLC said:

You like athletes and analytics prioritizes athletes. Analytics also allows for more context-based production, ie 500 yards in the SEC could be better than 900 yards in the Big 12. The biggest fallacy about analytics is that they don't like production. Analytics loves production, it's just in context.

Scouting obviously still matters, but it should no longer be the priority.

Analytics for college football are really difficult as they relate to forecasting nfl careers.  How often does a potential first day pick go against another potential first day pick and even then were both guys fully healthy for that game? And as was said there are so many interdependent assignments.  Then beyond all that the sample size for the stats is really much too small to be predictive. 

[greendestiny27]

15 minutes ago, RLC said:

Good. Analytics should win.

Agree to disagree on that one. I'll take the guy that produces twice as much on the field but ran .87 seconds slower in the 40 

[RLC]

2 minutes ago, greendestiny27 said:

Agree to disagree on that one. I'll take the guy that produces twice as much on the field but ran .87 seconds slower in the 40 

So you want a roster of JJAWs and TJ Edwards?

3 minutes ago, pgcd3 said:

Analytics for college football are really difficult as they relate to forecasting nfl careers.  How often does a potential first day pick go against another potential first day pick and even then were both guys fully healthy for that game? And as was said there are so many interdependent assignments.  Then beyond all that the sample size for the stats is really much too small to be predictive. 

Analytics can tell you that though. You can sort through data to determine how players played against other highly-graded talent. 

[HazletonEagle]

5 minutes ago, RLC said:

So you want a roster of JJAWs and TJ Edwards?

Analytics can tell you that though. You can sort through data to determine how players played against other highly-graded talent. 

JJAW was an analytical darling actually. PFF had a ton of impressive stats of his effectiveness on 3rd downs, contested catches, etc. And then he somehow ran a 4.4 with good size. They loved him.

[greendestiny27]

21 minutes ago, RLC said:

So you want a roster of JJAWs and TJ Edwards?

Analytics can tell you that though. You can sort through data to determine how players played against other highly-graded talent. 

No no. I'm not saying draft all high stat college guys, definitely not. Analytics are an important tool in the whole process. I just don't think Halaby should be this high ranking over the football minded guys. I was a huge fan of Travon Walker, long before he was even considered a 1st rounder even. He is a analytical style drafted player whom went 1 overall. 
But to me there is a gray area with guys, from projecting and do they have the "it" factor, that sometimes isn't obvious on the stat sheet or in analytical data. I want the decision makers to be able to spot that. I think someone with a keen scouting eye watching tape would have a better success rate and I would trust that guy over an analytical one to make the tough calls on who gets drafted and not when you're on the clock and have to make that decision. 

[eagle45]

8 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

JJAW was an analytical darling actually. PFF had a ton of impressive stats of his effectiveness on 3rd downs, contested catches, etc. And then he somehow ran a 4.4 with good size. They loved him.

Well, he ran a 4.49 at his pro day when the rub on his tape was that he was slow.

Now, he moves like a 4.6 guy, but a pro day 4.49 is nothing to be proud of for a WR.

[Iggles_Phan]

2 hours ago, bpac55 said:

To an extent.  He wasn't an active combat pilot, he was a test pilot.  Think of him as Chuck Yeager in the film.  Yes, for him to fly an active mission is a bit far-fetched but just a minor thing in an otherwise terrific movie. 

Or if you look at Jimmy Doolittle, who was 44 I believe when the raid took place.  Yes, silly to compare Tom Cruise to two absolute legends and heroes but just giving some context. 

Very big difference compared to Doolittle.  One - Doolittle's flight was a bomber run, not a fighter... and two - Doolittle had to do that himself.  It was his plan.  He couldn't ask men to complete what was considered by many to be a suicide mission that he wasn't willing to do himself.  Not to mention, quite a few people believed it couldn't be done to take a medium range bomber and have it successfully take off from an aircraft carrier.

[HazletonEagle]

1 minute ago, eagle45 said:

Well, he ran a 4.49 at his pro day when the rub on his tape was that he was slow.

Now, he moves like a 4.6 guy, but a pro day 4.49 is nothing to be proud of for a WR.

for him it was. He was a bigger, possession guy. To show 4.4 speed was big for him. 

Checking out his RAS he was 225lbs, and they put him at 4.5 even though Im sure he broke the 4.4 mark. Even at 4.5 they had his speed graded as Good.  They also show that he hit 22mph on  his 40. Which is elite. 

Ill say I think the RAS is mostly complete trash. But since analytics were brought up, and someone mentioned how speed factors in, the RAS weighs heavily on height/weight/speed and that 40 time was a huge help to JJAW. 

[eagle45]

2 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

for him it was. He was a bigger, possession guy. To show 4.4 speed was big for him. 

And that’s part of why he sucks.

[RLC]

There were legitimate red-flags in JJaw's analytical profile

- Below average burst
- 11th percentile agility
- Below average catch radius/wingspan...a major issue for someone who wins in contested catches
- Lack of separation, which is trackable in GPS Data.

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jj-arcega-whiteside/ 

Honestly, the best thing about JJAW's analytical profile was that he was good at a young age.

[HazletonEagle]

4 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

And that’s part of why he sucks.

I agree that he sucks.

I dont agree that analytics is more important than scouting. Nor that scouting is more important than analytics.

My only argument is JJAW isnt here as a result of scouting. He is here as a result of analytics. Sometimes analytics gets it wrong too. 

2 minutes ago, RLC said:

There were legitimate red-flags in JJaw's analytical profile

- Below average burst
- 11th percentile agility
- Below average catch radius/wingspan...a major issue for someone who wins in contested catches
- Lack of separation, which is trackable in GPS Data.

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jj-arcega-whiteside/ 

Honestly, the best thing about JJAW's analytical profile was that he was good at a young age.

your link is showing his NFL stats.

I remember very well what PFF was showing during the draft process and I posted those articles here numerous times to show why I thought he had a chance. 

[eagle45]

Just now, RLC said:

There were legitimate red-flags in JJaw's analytical profile

- Below average burst
- 11th percentile agility
- Below average catch radius/wingspan...a major issue for someone who wins in contested catches
- Lack of separation, which is trackable in GPS Data.

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jj-arcega-whiteside/ 

Honestly, the best thing about JJAW's analytical profile was that he was good at a young age.

I guess we are talking semantics here, but I think of that as scouting as much as it is analytics.

I think of analytics as correlating calf circumference to the rate of knee injuries and adjusting your draft board accordingly.  Or having a multiplier for production in each conference and plugging that into a formula that includes RAS to grade the prospects.

Below average burst, 11%tile for agility, below average catch radius…poor separation on the field, be it based on tape or GPS…I think of that as scouting.

Again, semantics.

[HazletonEagle]

Just now, eagle45 said:

I guess we are talking semantics here, but I think of that as scouting as much as it is analytics.

I think of analytics as correlating calf circumference to the rate of knee injuries and adjusting your draft board accordingly.  Or having a multiplier for production in each conference and plugging that into a formula that includes RAS to grade the prospects.

Below average burst, 11%tile for agility, below average catch radius…poor separation on the field, be it based on tape or GPS…I think of that as scouting.

Again, semantics.

yeah most people here thing analytics is just combine numbers....

PFF had performance related analytics as well that really showed JJAW to be a beast.