30 minutes ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

Looking back, ending up anywhere in the top-ten was a long shot.

Going into the season the Texans, Jags, Seahawks, Jets, Giants, Commanders, Colts, Steelers, Lions, Bears, Panthers, Falcons, and Browns (13 teams) were all potentially worse than the Saints. 

Given the dreck in the NFL now, top-ten would be a nice result.

I'm guessing that's what Howie was hoping for as well, a top ten pick with some good value to drop back in the teens and pick up some more draft capital.

I say we beat the Saints by at least 10 pts. I believe the pick will  be in the top 10. 

I'd like to draft a  guy like Joey Porter, Jr. CB. Penn State. Height: 6-2 | Weight: 196  or Kelee Ringo out of Georgia. 

 

I said some time ago that gut feeling is we end up picking somewhere 6-10 hoping closer to 6 but now appears will be closer to 10.  Looking at the upcoming schedule for the final 2 weeks for those teams that are currently picking ahead of NO, it doesn't seem likely the ball will bounce in such a way that the pick, as currently slotted, will improve much if at all.  Guessing we end up picking 9 or more likely 10.  F the Browns.  

14 hours ago, time2rock said:

I said some time ago that gut feeling is we end up picking somewhere 6-10 hoping closer to 6 but now looking like closer to 10.  Looking at the upcoming schedule for the final 2 weeks for those teams that are currently picking ahead of NO, it doesn't seem likely the ball will bounce in such a way that the pick, as currently slotted, will improve much if at all.  Guessing we end up picking 9 or more likely 10.  F the Browns.  

Yep. Deshaun Watson coming back ruined it. They were better with Brissett. Those two Atlanta games hurt too. Still the #9 or #10 pick is better than I expected when the Eagles made the trade. And there's an additional 2nd round pick next year. Definitely a win. 

 

 

Upcoming schedule for those teams picking ahead of the Saints (6-9) where there is still a chance to jump ahead of them in the draft order:

Raiders (6-9, currently picking 9): 49ers, Chiefs

Panthers (6-9, currently picking 8): @Buccaneers, @Saints

Rams (5-10, currently picking 7): @Chargers, @Seahawks

Falcons (5-10, currently picking 6):  Cardinals, Buccaneers

Colts (4-10-1, currently picking 5):  @Giants, Texans

Cardinals (4-11, currently picking 5):  @Falcons, @49ers)

_____________________________________________________________________

• If the Saints lose 1 more game than the Raiders and/or Rams, they will move ahead of them.  Highly doubt that happens for the Raiders (they likely aren't going to win either game, even if KC rests its starters but doubtful they will do so as they are still fighting with the Bills and Bengals for the highest playoff seed possible - the latter have the head-to-head tiebreaker).
• If the Panthers win out (possible) they'd win the NFCS which would move the NO pick up.  
• The Rams aren't likely to win either of their final 2 games (I know ... "any given Sunday") but they'd have to win 1 with Saints losing out or win both if the Saints add another win in order to impact order.
• The Falcons would have to win out and the Saints lose out in order for Atlanta to move below NO (due to SOS).  
• The Colts would also have to win out with NO losing out to impact draft order.
• The Cardinals would also have to win out (again, not likely) with NO losing out to impact draft order.

 

I'd be shocked if we picked any better than 8 at this point. Still not bad, just disappointing. Still thankful for the Bucs coming back for the 17-16 win or else we'd be in a bad spot.

On 12/28/2022 at 8:47 AM, bitbased said:

I'd be shocked if we picked any better than 8 at this point. Still not bad, just disappointing. Still thankful for the Bucs coming back for the 17-16 win or else we'd be in a bad spot.

Even though we’re short on picks this year, Howie may see value in moving up a couple spots. Very plausible Jalen Carter is still there at 6. Shouldnt take much more than next year’s NO 2nd to jump from 8 or 9

Although not very realistic, it is possible for that pick to move up as high as 5. 

The path to 5:

• Saints lose out
• Panthers win out (beat Bucs this week, Saints next week) to win NFCS
• Falcons win out (beat Cardinals this week, Bucs next week)
• The 3 above leaves Panthers 8-9, Bucs 7-10, Falcons 7-10, Saints 6-11 (which moves the Saints pick above the Falcons and Panthers)
• Rams win 1 of remaining 2 (@ Chargers, @ Seahawks) (end 6-11) – would draft after Saints based on SOS.
• Raiders win 1 of remaining 2 (49ers, Chiefs) (end 7-10)
• Colts win out (@ Giants, Texans) (end 6-10-1)

The fact that Tampa came back and won that game a few weeks ago makes whatever the pick ends up being pretty damn good. If New Orleans holds on there they are probably the NFC south champ and in the playoffs. I will gladly take a pick in the 8-12 range.

With the SEA win, oddly enough the pick only dropped 1 spot. So hey.

As far as i can tell, if the Saints lose, we pick 10th no matter what. 

If they win, the pick will be no worse than 16th, if the sos info on tankathon is correct. 

One of jax-tenn moves ahead of them. If the steelers lose tonight, either they or the browns move ahead. We would be cheering for the jets, since a loss pushes them ahead of the saints, but a miami loss doesn't. The pats are irrevelevant. 

Need seattle and commander wins. The gb and detroit game is irrelevant. 

So the worst case scenario seems to be five teams moving up, assuming there are no ties. 

 

A Steelers win helps, as they can't move past the Saints with a loss. So go Browns. 

Post 1 updated yada yada yada.

Strangely, even though NO won, their pick slot did not change (it is still 10).

Even more strangely, had they lost, their pick slot would still have been 10.  

That pick from NO can't improve from 10.  The only possible impact on that pick would be if they win their 4th straight this weekend ... if the Titans, Browns, Jets, or Commanders lose, they'll drop below them (so worst case would be picking 14th).  Let's just hope the Saints lose to the Panthers so that pick locks in at 10.  

13 minutes ago, time2rock said:

That pick from NO can't improve from 10.  The only possible impact on that pick would be if they win their 4th straight this weekend ... if the Titans, Browns, Jets, or Commanders lose, they'll drop below them (so worst case would be picking 14th).  Let's just hope the Saints lose to the Panthers so that pick locks in at 10.  

Seattle also has to win or else they will pick ahead of the Saints. 

14 minutes ago, jsb235 said:

Seattle also has to win or else they will pick ahead of the Saints. 

Ah yes, you are correct (but only if NO wins).  Looks like Jacksonville is in the same boat (i.e. they need to win to continue picking after NO should the Saints win as well unless the Patriots, Dolphins, and Steelers all lose which would then give Jacksonville the 3rd WC spot with a loss).

Well feels more likely Howie trades back and tries this again with another team. 😂

On 1/5/2023 at 8:18 PM, EazyEaglez said:

Well feels more likely Howie trades back and tries this again with another team. 😂

Even though it won't end up being top 5 like many were hopeful for, Howie still made out like a bandit with this trade.  Basically, he traded down 2 spots in 2022 (16 to 18 ... the difference in value being 100 points on the draft trade chart, if you use that for a reference) and threw in a 6th rd pick (negligible value). 

The return on that 100 points was this year's first round pick that we have been tracking, a 2024 2nd, plus 3rd and 7th rd picks in 2022.  Rule of thumb is, you lose a round in value by moving it forward a year.  100 points is the equivalent value of an early 4th rd pick (or late 3rd once you factor in comp picks), so an early 3rd rd would even things up. 

To get a top 15 pick and a 2nd next year (plus the 2022 3rd ... the 7th also being negligible value) is excellent return on those 100 points.  I just hope Carolina takes care of business and beats NO tomorrow to make sure that pick sticks at 10 (it can't get any higher at this point).  

I was fooling around with the numbers last night to see what the worst possible pick would be. And I got 16th. I think the Bills-Bengals cancelled game came into play because their SOS compared to the Patriots was just a half game in that scenario.

A LOT of things would have to go wrong for it to fall that far.

On 1/5/2023 at 8:18 PM, EazyEaglez said:

Well feels more likely Howie trades back and tries this again with another team. 😂

It’s going to be hard without moving down into the 20’s.

I wonder if we could do something like this:

2023 #10 (1300 points)

2024 2nd (276 points)

1576 total

for

2023 #16 (1000 points)

2023 3rd (195 points)

2024 1st (430 points)

1625 total

A lot will depend on how the QBs fall. If there’s a QB at our pick we can probably get a great deal.

2 minutes ago, TEW said:

A lot will depend on how the QBs fall. If there’s a QB at our pick we can probably get a great deal.

There are a lot of teams who need a qb who pick in front of us - Panthers, Falcons, Houston, Colts, Raiders - so I think anyone worth trading up for will be gone. 

3 minutes ago, jsb235 said:

There are a lot of teams who need a qb who pick in front of us - Panthers, Falcons, Houston, Colts, Raiders - so I think anyone worth trading up for will be gone. 

Certainly possible.

2 minutes ago, TEW said:

Certainly possible.

I do think someone may trade up for a wr since there are not a lot of great options at that position.

12 minutes ago, jsb235 said:

I do think someone may trade up for a wr since there are not a lot of great options at that position.

Yeah, the TCU kid seems like he’s the only real prototypical #1.