19 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

It’s just the success rate of A ball guys that are 20.  Nothing is special or different about the 2024 edition of the top prospects.  

You are using a 20 year window where the Phillies prior to Dombrowski did a poor job scouting and developing from like 2010-2018. They’ve been much better since Dombrowski has taken over. O’hoppe was borderline all star, Stott was great last year. Bohm has developed into an all star. Suarez is an all star. Sanchez has developed into a nice pitcher. Alvarado has become a nice BP was a buy low trade and they developed him into what he’s become. If you want to play the 20 year game then go 25 cause it includes Hamels, utley, Howard, Rollins, werth, victorino (they got them rule 5 draft and developed them into all star players) and even Ruiz. convenient to stopped it at 20 years or not say last 5 years where it looks much better 

they sucked for like a decade with developing and farm system. You act like their farm system isn’t light years better now then it was from like 2010-2018. when was the last time the Phillies had 3 top 40 prospects in all of baseball in their farm system prior to Dombrowski? It might have been prior to making trades for Lee and halladay. Also Phillies investing more money now into their international scouting then they have in the past. Their farm system isn’t great but it’s much better than it had been at any point in time under klentak. 

14 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

You are using a 20 year window where the Phillies prior to Dombrowski did a poor job scouting and developing from like 2010-2018. They’ve been much better since Dombrowski has taken over. O’hoppe was borderline all star, Stott was great last year. Bohm has developed into an all star. Suarez is an all star. Sanchez has developed into a nice pitcher. Alvarado has become a nice BP was a buy low trade and they developed him into what he’s become. If you want to play the 20 year game then go 25 cause it includes Hamels, utley, Howard, Rollins, werth, victorino (they got them rule 5 draft and developed them into all star players) and even Ruiz. convenient it was stopped at 20 years. 

they sucked for like a decade with developing and farm system. You act like their farm system isn’t light years better now then it was from like 2010-2018. when was the last time the Phillies had 3 top 40 prospects in all of baseball in their farm system prior to Dombrowski? It might have been prior to making trades for Lee and halladay. Also Phillies investing more money now into their international scouting then they have in the past. Their farm system isn’t great but it’s much better than it had been at any point in time under klentak. 

They have 2 right now, 19 and 27.  This farm isn’t isn’t special.  It’s not even better by the numbers than it has been in the past.  

36 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

They have 2 right now, 19 and 27.  This farm isn’t isn’t special.  It’s not even better by the numbers than it has been in the past.  

Painter, miller and Crawford are all top 40 by baseball America. And they have 4 in the top 50 according to baseball America . 

MLB pipeline has 5 guys in the top 100 

Please show me the last time the Phillies had 4 prospects in the top 50 by baseball America and 5 in the top 100 prior to Dombrowski being here… I’ll wait cause it’s likely hasn’t since they traded Hamels to the rangers. But sure they clearly aren’t better at developing talent only O’hoppe, Stott, Bohm, Suarez developed into good mlb players in the time Dombrowski has come on here. Meanwhile prior that from 2010-18 they had what Rhys and Nola? And they had to fix Rhys cause kapler and klentak screwed with him.

Should the farm system be better? Yes. But baseball America came out with a prospects list in 2019 before the season (5 years ago with klentak), the Phillies had 1 top 40 (heck 60) prospect and 3 top 100. Before klentak was fired after 2020 they had 2 in top 50. Right now they currently have 5 top 100 and baseball America has 4 in their top 50. They haven’t had 4 top 50 prospects in a while. Closest was pipeline had 3 in 2018 and 6 top 100 in 2018 but the last 3 were fringe guys because they drafted them highly and not what they actually did in the minors. They had more top 100 prospects at start of 2016 cause they made the trade with the rangers with Hamels and it made up half of them and they all were 55-100 besides jp Crawford. And none of those guys they got in that rangers trade remotely worked out due to poor development and scouting. 

42 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Painter, miller and Crawford are all top 40 by baseball America. And they have 4 in the top 50 according to baseball America . 

MLB pipeline has 5 guys in the top 100 

Please show me the last time the Phillies had 4 prospects in the top 50 by baseball America and 5 in the top 100 prior to Dombrowski being here… I’ll wait cause it’s likely hasn’t is during the klentak era. But sure they clearly aren’t better at developing talent only O’hoppe, Stott, Bohm, Suarez developed into good mlb players in the time Dombrowski has come on here. Meanwhile prior that from 2010-18 they had what Rhys and Nola? And they had to fix Rhys cause kapler and klentak screwed with him.

Should the farm system be better? Yes. But baseball America came out with a prospects list in 2019 before the season, the Phillies had 1 top 40 (or 60) prospect and 3 top 100. Right now they currently have 5 top 100 and baseball America has 4 in their top 50. They need to get better but they are clearly better than they were towards the end of the klentak era. 

In 2018, they had Sixto, Kingery, and JP Crawford in the top 40 of MLB.com.  Sixto would eventually peak at 15.  Crawford peaked at 5.  All flops.  Well, Sixto wasn't...because he got us something great.

Just last year, Painter, Abel, and McGarry were the "big 3."  Painter at #6 was the top pitching prospect period.  Abel was 48, but still a big time prospect.  Mcgarry didn't crack top 100, but was still considered a prized prospect.  1 year later, Painter's value has slipped (he's also #19), he's no closer to the majors, and Abel/Mcgarry are now value-less seeds that will just be left in the soil for years.

Point is, until proven otherwise, this year's crop of top prospects is only different because they haven't had a chance to fall short of their unrealistic hype and expectations yet.

You hold prospects, obviously, when you are rebuilding.  These guys are nothing right now and likely never will be.  Using names like Mike Schmidt, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins is just silly for these guys.  I'll settle for Sixto Sanchez...a future bust that gets us a veteran upgrade.  You do what you can for incremental improvements when the team is crescendoing to a peak we see once every 15 years.

By the time Miller even projects to being a good MLB player, we'll be on the death end of the Harper/Turner deals and will be shipping Miller out for younger prospects.

 

 

 

 

27 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

In 2018, they had Sixto, Kingery, and JP Crawford in the top 40 of MLB.com.  Sixto would eventually peak at 15.  Crawford peaked at 5.  All flops.  Well, Sixto wasn't...because he got us something great.

Just last year, Painter, Abel, and McGarry were the "big 3."  Painter at #6 was the top pitching prospect period.  Abel was 48, but still a big time prospect.  Mcgarry didn't crack top 100, but was still considered a prized prospect.  1 year later, Painter's value has slipped (he's also #19), he's no closer to the majors, and Abel/Mcgarry are now value-less seeds that will just be left in the soil for years.

Point is, until proven otherwise, this year's crop of top prospects is only different because they haven't had a chance to fall short of their unrealistic hype and expectations yet.

You hold prospects, obviously, when you are rebuilding.  These guys are nothing right now and likely never will be.  You do what you can for incremental improvements when the team is crescendoing to a peak we see once every 15 years.

 

Crawford is still a starting caliber SS for the mariners. I’d hardly call that a flop. The Phillies moved him cause "he was bad” after 72 games. And yet he is still a mainstay for the mariners, won a gold glove and has been solid since. He was dealt for Jean segura (all star caliber player). Someone like Adam Haseley and Nicky moniak were flops. But frankly moniak shouldn’t have gone 1. That was a huge convo and people thought klentak made a mistake 

Again fine dealing prospects like sixto and Crawford if you get all star caliber players like realmuto and segura ( was in 2018). Not guys who aren’t that and are just incremental upgrades. I’m Cody Bellinger no  1 fan and i think he’s having a less than stellar year and no way shape or form worth your top 2 prospects 

painter wouldn’t even be on that list if he didn’t tear his elbow. He’d be pitching for the Phillies. And he might be a stud or he might have bust. But if he hit we likely aren’t having this convo. The only reason he’s dropped is due to that injury otherwise he’s contributing to the Phillies or near the top of that list still as he was definitely the best pitching prospect in mlb before the injury.

McGarry was always thought to be the least talented of the 3. It’s why it was thought he was destined to be in the bullpen and he wasn’t top 100. Only Abel and painter were. And Abel has regressed but still top 100 by pipeline. Add on you made up for it with Caba, miller and Crawford. So again they are still developing at a higher rate then at the end of the klentak regime which wasn’t great. 

in the last decade worth of farm system and prospects the Phillies NEVER had 4 top 50 prospects by baseball America until now. Thats  fact that you can try to tip toe around and shooting it down but it’s the first time in over a decade. So yes I’d consider that way better than what they have been particularly the last 2 years under klentak (2019 and 2020) 

you can trade prospects for incremental upgrades and you’ll eventually run it into the ground. And if we don’t win a World Series cause they weren’t big enough upgrades and deplete yourself with incremental upgrades it’ll be another long ass rebuild in the twilight of Turner and Harper’s careers. They could’ve dealt Stott and Bohm to help realmuto, Harper and schwarber. There were times they could’ve and was talked about.  Harper went to management (stories about it) along with Phillies management squashed it cause you can’t just continuously unload your best prospect for incremental upgrades. It’s why the only top rated prospect we’ve dealt recently with Dombrowski was O’hoppe and it was in the hopes marsh lived up to his highly touted rankings (he didn’t but guess who has? O’hoppe)   

The fact that Crawford was traded for a proven vet upgrade further proves the point.  He ended up surprising as a legit starter despite flopping with us and it was still a good trade.  

16 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

The fact that Crawford was traded for a proven vet upgrade further proves the point.  He ended up surprising as a legit starter despite flopping with us and it was still a good trade.  

He wasn’t traded for an incremental upgrade like you are talking about. Segura was an ALL STAR the year he was traded. Phillies traded Crawford at the end of 2018 and segura was coming off an all star year. That’s different than two guys who aren’t right now. If we had this discussion when Bellinger was insane last year it’s a different story as his second half was nuts and would’ve put them over the top. But the Phillies bet he’d regress back closer to his mean in the offseason and he kind of did so why is he worth more now when he’s lost power and regressed? He’s not. Chisholm made it to an ASG in 2022 cause he got voted in but then got hurt and then missed a bulk of time the following season in 2023. He also missed a quarter of the year in 2021. And this year his numbers are ok not great  

you want to make the case for Robert i could see it. He’s a five tool player. He has that type of talent. However he’s perpetually missing time so there’s a chance you trade that and he’s unavailable when you need him. And has a list of other issues and they want a padres for Soto type package which is ridiculous as he’s not Soto 

38 minutes ago, iladelphxx said:

 

 

 

 

Rooker is solid pickup. Issue is he’s a bad defensive player. I’d still do it for what it’ll cost. it’s essentially like having a slightly better fielding schwarber in LF. That said i tend to believe they want a CF like Bowden said. Rojas isn’t it or not ready yet. And if they get a 4th outfielder (was a report a month ago they also wanted) they can platoon marsh in LF where he’s better suited defensively. 

Let’s talk numbers so we can really nail this down.  Here’s the categories:

1. franchise cornerstone perennial all star
2. Quality starter
3. Replacement level starter.
4. Part time player.  
5. Back and forth between MLB, AAA, back end of multiple teams’ rosters.

Adding up to 100, what % chance would you put in each category for Painter, Miller, and Crawford?

I’ll go:

Painter
1: 2.5
2: 40
3: 50
4: 5
5: 2.5

Miller
1: 2.5
2: 10
3: 40
4: 30
5: 17.5

Crawford:
1: 1
2: 20
3: 50
4: 20
5: 9

 

With these obviously subjective and speculative numbers (but let’s just say ball park accurate)…I’m giving a roughly 6% chance any one of the big 3 is a perennial all star and a roughly 60% chance at least one of them is a quality starter (or better).  

The prospect of getting someone who IS a quality starter RIGHT NOW…that’s arguably more valuable than all 3 combined.

Again, I’m not debating the vets on the receiving end.  Maybe they suck.  I’m just arguing these prospects aren’t nearly as valuable as we think.

38 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

Let’s talk numbers so we can really nail this down.  Here’s the categories:

1. franchise cornerstone perennial all star
2. Quality starter
3. Replacement level starter.
4. Part time player.  
5. Back and forth between MLB, AAA, back end of multiple teams’ rosters.

Adding up to 100, what % chance would you put in each category for Painter, Miller, and Crawford?

I really don’t care to play your game. I’m not dealing two of my best prospects for "incremental” upgrades. They better be significant upgrades cause i can make trades for guys like Tyler Ward who’s an incremental upgrade as a platoon with marsh for far less. Add two guys who don’t stay healthy (Chisholm and Robert) and have chemistry issues and in Robert case lazy tendencies.  Add on Bellinger a guy who was given up on prior to 2023 for lackluster performance in 2022. Was on a similar pace 2021 as he was 2022 but had injuries that year shut him down. he’s on pace to similar production (RBI, HR) as he was in 2022 and what he was on pace for in 2021. You seem to be willing to sell the top talent if the guy is just a solid player on a regression year. Good for you if you want to do that. That to me is a ridiculous notion. Especially when the Phillies could’ve signed him for nothing but money and thought he wasn’t worth it. I don’t sell top prospects for "incremental upgrades” cause o can do that trading other prospects going about it another way  

if this was a guarantee we get 2023 bellinger or 2017-2019 bellinger I’m all in. But that’s a way to big of a risk for him and a guy who can opt out (likely Boras client) at the end of the year as he walks away and you are down multiple top prospects and you might not even get that bellinger. Add on if he opts cause he wasn’t great for you then you’ll be paying him 27.5 mil for a guy not close to worthy of that. 

20 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

I really don’t care to play your game. I’m not dealing two of my best prospects for "incremental” upgrades. They better be significant upgrades cause i can make trades for guys like Tyler Ward who’s an incremental upgrade as a platoon with marsh for far less. Add two guys who don’t stay healthy (Chisholm and Robert) and have chemistry issues and in Robert case lazy tendencies.  Add on Bellinger a guy who was given up on prior to 2023 for lackluster performance in 2022. Was on a similar pace 2021 as he was 2022 but had injuries that year shut him down. he’s on pace to similar production (RBI, HR) as he was in 2022 and what he was on pace for in 2021. You seem to be willing to sell the top talent if the guy is just a solid player on a regression year. Good for you if you want to do that. That to me is a ridiculous notion. Especially when the Phillies could’ve signed him for nothing but money and thought he wasn’t worth it. I don’t sell top prospects for "incremental upgrades”. 

if this was a guarantee we get 2023 bellinger or 2017-2019 bellinger I’m all in. But that’s a way to big of a risk for him and a guy who can opt out (likely Boras client) at the end of the year as he walks away and you are down multiple top prospects and you might not even get that bellinger. 

It’s an important game to play.  It’s all about the odds.  What % chance of a prospect becoming a quality starter (bolstered by what kind of upside) is too high to trade for someone who already is a quality starter?  And are our guys at that point?  That IS the game of wheeling and dealing prospects.

14 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

It’s an important game to play.  It’s all about the odds.  What % chance of a prospect becoming a quality starter (bolstered by what kind of upside) is too high to trade for someone who already is a quality starter?  And are our guys at that point?  That IS the game of wheeling and dealing prospects.

No, it’s not. Because you don’t have enough information to make your argument. Have you scouted these kids? Watched them every year religiously? I haven’t and I’m guessing you haven’t. So I much rather ask a Scout or scouts or people who’s actually watch these kids play and actually put significant time into it then you and i who haven’t. No offense i take what baseball America or scouts have said over what you want to believe and their projections. Are they always right? No but they have put in the time you and I haven't.

Also you are basing your numbers on what? You’re going based off what happened in the Phillies organization 20 years? I couldn’t give a crap less what happened 10 or 20 years ago. What you and I should care about is how guys have scouted and developed players since Dombrowski has taken over in 2021. Because that who is in charge right now. All i know since Dombrowski has taken over guys like Sanchez, Suarez, Bohm, Stott, Logan O’hoppe, Orion kerkering have been developed to be good contributors or even all star players at the MLB level. Heck even Bailey falter has found a way to be a 5th starter. Thats only in 3 years. What happened with klentak and amaro means nothing cause they aren’t here anymore, neither is a majority of that scouting department and Dombrowski is and has shown a better ability to evaluate and make trades and develop players (here and over his career). Add on the Phillies have invest more resources into their international system and into their farm system in the past couple years. 

9 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

No, it’s not. Because you don’t have enough information to make your argument. I much rather ask a Scout who’s actually watch these kids play and actually put significant time into it then you and i who haven’t. No offense i take what baseball America or scouts have said over what you want to believe.

Also you are basing your numbers on what? You’re going based off what happened in the Phillies organization 20 years? I couldn’t give a crap less what happened 10 or 20 years ago. What you and I should care about is how guys have scouted and developed players since Dombrowski has taken over in 2021. Because that who is in charge right now. All i know since Dombrowski has taken over guys like Sanchez, Suarez, Bohm, Stott, Logan O’hoppe, Orion kerkering have been developed to be good contributors or even all star players at the MLB level. Heck even Bailey falter has found a way to be a 5th starter. Thats only in 3 years. What happened with klentak and amaro means nothing cause they aren’t here anymore, neither is a majority of that scouting department and Dombrowski is and has shown a better ability to evaluate and make trades and develop players (here and over his career). Add on the Phillies have invest more resources into their international system and into their farm system in the past couple years. 

It would be wise for a scout or GM to know the hit rate of top 5, 10, 20, 40 prospects over the years.  And that certainly includes our guys who have been on the list before.  Just as nfl draft picks #15-25 have a hit rate, so too do top prospects 15-25.  Seems silly to discount it.
 

Those who do not understand history…

So what is the argument here? Give up a guy who has a potential to be the next Bryce Harper, for a guy who is just solid right now? Since he has a low chance of ever even becoming that solid player you are trading for? 

5 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

It would be wise for a scout or GM to know the hit rate of top 5, 10, 20, 40 prospects over the years.  And that certainly includes our guys who have been on the list before.  Those who do not understand history…

It’d be wise to know what their rate is with a particular GM in charge now and what HE has done over the years. not ones like klentak and amaro who no longer are in the system and bad GMs at scouting and developing. Those who like to prop up their finds with using data from incompetent GMs like klentak tend to have faulty data. Cause I’m betting Dombrowski’s data and track record over his career is far more vital then klentak and amaro right now. Hence why he is a hall of fame type GM and the others weren’t 

3 minutes ago, Bwestbrook36 said:

So what is the argument here? Give up a guy who has a potential to be the next Bryce Harper, for a guy who is just solid right now? Since he has a low chance of ever even becoming that solid player you are trading for? 

Yes.  Mostly because he also doesn’t have the potential to be the next Bryce Harper.

If Vegas could set odds on it…I could guarantee you they’d say there is a higher chance that Luis Robert Jr….as he sits right now in Chicago…has a higher chance of hitting a HR in a World Series for the Phillies at some point in the future than Aiden Miller.

19 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

If Vegas could set odds on it…I could guarantee you they’d say there is a higher chance that Luis Robert Jr….as he sits right now in Chicago…has a higher chance of hitting a HR in a World Series for the Phillies at some point in the future than Aiden Miller.

There’s also a solid chance he gets injured and not available when you need him cause that’s been his entire career. he has been in mlb for 5 years now. He’s played 100 games once in 4 years and his year he’d have to play every game the rest of the year just Make it to 100. And I’m guessing if you push him like that without having off days he’s likely coming down with an injury 

add on Robert is the only one of the 3 you can make the case he’s worth top prospect and he’s not worth a Juan Soto package they are asking for. HE’S NOT JUAN SOTO. (Bellinger and Chisholm aren’t remotely close as neither is in his class talent wise and I’m guessing no team is giving up two top prospects for Bellinger and Chisholm). And yet he’s injury prone, reportedly has chemistry issues with the locker room and has lazy tendencies (see Indians game last week). Those things also exist 

12 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

Yes.  Mostly because he also doesn’t have the potential to be the next Bryce Harper.

I can see both sides of this and if you are going strictly off of odds then what you are saying is the safer route to go... With that being said unfortunately I'd personally go@e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! route.

I completely get where you are coming from but, I'm not giving up potential great players for an already solid player that isn't getting any better and also may not even be enough to get you over the hump.

I'd rather play those odds that I develop a super star that can help for a decade than trade that guy for a player that is just solid that may not even end up helping you win anything anyways. 

7 minutes ago, Bwestbrook36 said:

I can see both sides of this and if you are going strictly off of odds then what you are saying is the safer route to go... With that being said unfortunately I'd personally go@e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! route.

I completely get where you are coming from but, I'm not giving up potential great players for an already solid player that isn't getting any better and also may not even be enough to get you over the hump.

I'd rather play those odds that I develop a super star that can help for a decade than trade that guy for a player that is just solid that may not even end up helping you win anything anyways. 

I said before I don’t think anybody’s untouchable if the right player is out there. Sixto wasn’t untouchable when jt realmuto became available. He was the right player and a consistent all star level player to do it.  Arguably best player at his position. And even he only cost you sixto, Alfaro who proved to be a mediocre mlb catcher with the Phillies and a third tier prospect 

If there was a Juan Soto or a Kyle Tucker out there I’m 100% for doing that trade. Those guys are who you unload the farm for. However, there is not that guy out there. I’m not giving up Juan Soto package like the Padres gave up (what the white Sox are asking for) to get Luis Robert Jr., who doesn’t stay healthy and has a whole bunch of other issues. And no GM is giving up their top prospect for Bellinger with his regression this year and ability to opt out (boras client) and screw you or if he continues his regression and you are tied into 27.5 mil (also screwing you) and prevents you from likely going after Juan Soto in FA in 2025 offseason. 

5 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

I said before I don’t think anybody’s untouchable if the right player is out there. Sixto wasn’t untouchable when jt realmuto became available. He was the right player and a consistent all star level player to do it.  Arguably best player at his position. And even he only cost you sixto, Alfaro who proved to be a mediocre mlb catcher with the Phillies and a third tier prospect 

If there was a Juan Soto or a Kyle Tucker out there I’m 100% for doing that trade. Those guys are who you unload the farm for. However, there is not that guy out there. I’m not giving up Juan Soto package like the Padres gave up (what the white Sox are asking for) to get Luis Robert Jr., who doesn’t stay healthy and has a whole bunch of other issues. And no GM is giving up their top prospect for Bellinger with his regression this year and ability to opt out (boras client) and screw you or if he continues his regression and you are tied into 27.5 mil (also screwing you) and prevents you from likely going after Juan Soto in FA in 2025 offseason. 

I don't think anyone is untouchable either, I just need more than Luis Robert or bellinger too. You don't build your farm up for guys like that. 

10 minutes ago, Bwestbrook36 said:

I don't think anyone is untouchable either, I just need more than Luis Robert or bellinger too. You don't build your farm up for guys like that. 

I’d be more in on Robert if he wasn’t injury prone. But he already missed 55 games this year. Only year he didn’t was 2023. Otherwise he’s not durable. Add on he does  odubel Herrera type of stuff at times. Like not even attempting to run up to catch the ball and throw the guy out at home (winning run) during the Indians game. Even if the guy is gonna score you have to do it and maybe something crazy happens.

Add on there’s been some rumors in that white Sox clubhouse with chemistry and involving him. So with a team like the Phillies where locker room chemistry is big not sure you want to bring him into it. So not only are you giving up major prospects but dealing with durability concerns, laziness at times and potential locker room disruption 

8 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

I’d be more in on Robert if he wasn’t injury prone. But he already missed 55 games this year. Only year he didn’t was 2023. Otherwise he’s not durable. Add on he does  odubel Herrera type of stuff at times. Like not even attempting to run up to catch the ball and throw the guy out at home (winning run) during the Indians game. Even if the guy is gonna score you have to do it and maybe something crazy happens.

Add on there’s been some rumors in that white Sox clubhouse with chemistry and involving him. So with a team like the Phillies where locker room chemistry is big not sure you want to bring him into it. So not only are you giving up major prospects but dealing with durability concerns, laziness at times and potential locker room disruption 

That's the main reason I don't want Robert. The team chemistry is a real thing an important thing and this current roster has it in a good way. Don't want to F that up with any player they bring in.