The Heat just don't go away, man. Everyone starts talking about how Jokic is killing them and how Tatum was killing them in the ECF. But before you know it, the Heat are only down 5. Then they're down just a couple. Then they're up by 5. They just stick around... super resilient, consistent team.

2 minutes ago, schuy7 said:

The Heat just don't go away, man. Everyone starts talking about how Jokic is killing them and how Tatum was killing them in the ECF. But before you know it, the Heat are only down 5. Then they're down just a couple. Then they're up by 5. They just stick around... super resilient, consistent team.

I hate how some in the media were saying the series is over, Miami has no shot, Jokic is a top 5 center of all time, Denver can win the next 3 championships.....

 

If I cared at all about basketball I’d be livid over getting rid of Butler. Stupid move then and in hindsight. 

4 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

I would agree with that.  The 'average' is just the mean.   Reno Mahe always had a nice 'average' too.  He would consistently get 6-9 yards, and then fall down. It was a truly rare event for him to go beyond that level...

 

Maybe I will spend some time digging into that this week.  It is an interesting question, and one worth addressing.

I'm curious. Would you in theory prefer someone who returns exactly eight yards ever return, or a guy who gets a thirty yarder, and then follows it up with three consecutive returns that result in two yards total, even though he might have had clear running room on those three punts but preferred dancing around, running backwards, and then barely making it back to where he originally caught the ball?

5 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

I'm curious. Would you in theory prefer someone who returns exactly eight yards ever return, or a guy who gets a thirty yarder, and then follows it up with three consecutive returns that result in two yards total, even though he might have had clear running room on those three punts but preferred dancing around, running backwards, and then barely making it back to where he originally caught the ball?

8 yards on a punt return means almost nothing on a possession, however, a player that can 'make a play' is extremely valuable.  It forces the opposition punter to directional kick, maybe punt out of bounds on a shank, maybe gets that big return that changes the entire game.

 

To put names to the two players in your hypothetical... Reno Mahe or DeSean Jackson?  Give me Desean.  DeSean averaged 9.4 y/r but had 4 TDs.  Mahe averaged 9.0 y/r and scored zero TDs.

Ideally, the goal is to have a Brian Mitchell, Devin Hester or even Brian Westbrook.  But if I have to choose between the consistently mediocre or the highlight reel player, who gets nothing on his other chances... give me the highlight reel.  The highlight reel makes the other team sweat.

7 hours ago, 315Eagles said:

I hate how some in the media were saying the series is over, Miami has no shot, Jokic is a top 5 center of all time, Denver can win the next 3 championships.....

 

Its all clickbait to fill space

same in football

5 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

I'm curious. Would you in theory prefer someone who returns exactly eight yards ever return, or a guy who gets a thirty yarder, and then follows it up with three consecutive returns that result in two yards total, even though he might have had clear running room on those three punts but preferred dancing around, running backwards, and then barely making it back to where he originally caught the ball?

The 30 yarder. Splash plays matter

net/net the 2 and 6-8 yard returns are no different

18 hours ago, mattwill said:

Name a few 

Still waiting on that myself.

More concerning to me, by far, is the lack of blocking on PRs.

18 hours ago, mattwill said:

Yes, but who?

On the current roster?  They don't really have anyone else, because its not something that they seem to be interested in prioritizing.  (or they did, with the likes of additions like Reagor, Hightower, Watkins and signing the likes of Covey, Allen, etc. But they are just currently REALLY bad at identifying what translates to the NFL.) 

 

Around the NFL?  There are a few.  Marcus Jones (NE), Jamal Agnew (Jax), Kavontae Turpin (Dal), Nyheim Hines (Ind-Buf), Ray-Ray McCloud (SF)... even a guy like Donovan People-Jones who is only returning punts for Cleveland, but should be able to add KR duties to his repertoire.  Of the two, returning kickoffs is easier than punts, and any 'runner' should be able to do an adequate job.

15 minutes ago, just relax said:

Still waiting on that myself.

More concerning to me, by far, is the lack of blocking on PRs.

ST, as a whole, has taken a huge step back organizationally in recent years.  And when that happens, you have to start by looking at the coach.  Seems that the coach just isn't that good at ST.

7 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

I'm curious. Would you in theory prefer someone who returns exactly eight yards ever return, or a guy who gets a thirty yarder, and then follows it up with three consecutive returns that result in two yards total, even though he might have had clear running room on those three punts but preferred dancing around, running backwards, and then barely making it back to where he originally caught the ball?

Since reality doesn't work like that, it's moot. Just give me the guy that takes what is there every time. It won't be long before that type of return man breaks  a long return. Imagine if the same question was asked about RBs. "That RB gets tackled at the LOS  on almost every run, but makes up for it by taking 2 or 3 to the house each season!!!"

7 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

I'm curious. Would you in theory prefer someone who returns exactly eight yards ever return, or a guy who gets a thirty yarder, and then follows it up with three consecutive returns that result in two yards total, even though he might have had clear running room on those three punts but preferred dancing around, running backwards, and then barely making it back to where he originally caught the ball?

I prefer a PR that is viewed as a threat by the other team.  A PR that can return a bad punt just like Toney did in the Super Bowl.  I haven’t given up on Covey entirely as a PR, although breaking a tackle would be nice.  What really bothered me was his route running.  No snap in his turns.  No separation and can’t block hurts WR depth.  I am not expecting an All Pro as a #5 WR but some skill there would be nice.  Given he was a good WR in college, I really hope to compete that he improves there.  I would like to see Allen or Rambo create some competition there this year.  Maybe at least Greg Ward level ability as a WR would be better than what we got last year from Covey.  

1 minute ago, brkmsn said:

Since reality doesn't work like that, it's moot. Just give me the guy that takes what is there every time. It won't be long before that type of return man breaks  a long return. Imagine if the same question was asked about RBs. "That RB gets tackled at the LOS  on almost every run, but makes up for it by taking 2 or 3 to the house each season!!!"

2021 Sanders?

7 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

I'm curious. Would you in theory prefer someone who returns exactly eight yards ever return, or a guy who gets a thirty yarder, and then follows it up with three consecutive returns that result in two yards total, even though he might have had clear running room on those three punts but preferred dancing around, running backwards, and then barely making it back to where he originally caught the ball?

Thinking on your point.  Does it depend on what the punt hang time, length etc is?  Where does the optimal returner lay across the different types of punts.

Perhaps a better metric for returners is return YAC vs overall yardage.

13 minutes ago, brkmsn said:

Since reality doesn't work like that, it's moot. Just give me the guy that takes what is there every time. It won't be long before that type of return man breaks  a long return. Imagine if the same question was asked about RBs. "That RB gets tackled at the LOS  on almost every run, but makes up for it by taking 2 or 3 to the house each season!!!"

False equivalence.

Any kelly green news yet? 

3 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

8 yards on a punt return means almost nothing on a possession, however, a player that can 'make a play' is extremely valuable.  It forces the opposition punter to directional kick, maybe punt out of bounds on a shank, maybe gets that big return that changes the entire game.

 

To put names to the two players in your hypothetical... Reno Mahe or DeSean Jackson?  Give me Desean.  DeSean averaged 9.4 y/r but had 4 TDs.  Mahe averaged 9.0 y/r and scored zero TDs.

Ideally, the goal is to have a Brian Mitchell, Devin Hester or even Brian Westbrook.  But if I have to choose between the consistently mediocre or the highlight reel player, who gets nothing on his other chances... give me the highlight reel.  The highlight reel makes the other team sweat.

Agreed. As long as the difference in ball security between the two is negligible, I want the one who can possibly break one. 

8 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

I'm curious. Would you in theory prefer someone who returns exactly eight yards ever return, or a guy who gets a thirty yarder, and then follows it up with three consecutive returns that result in two yards total, even though he might have had clear running room on those three punts but preferred dancing around, running backwards, and then barely making it back to where he originally caught the ball?

There were about 2,190 punts across the entire league last season.  Three punt return TDs.  (3)

The days of putting someone back there who is a "weapon, threat, scare the other team into directional punting" ..... those days are pretty much gone.  Give me a guy who doesn't screw up, gets the ball forward and takes what is there.      

47 minutes ago, QuinnWR4 said:

Any kelly green news yet? 

They gave up trying to match the color. Nike is now asking fans to turn in their old kelly green jerseys so they can recycle them for the new jerseys.  

I was thinking about this last night after I turned off the computer and went to bed. There is a statistical metric involving expected points based on where you are on the field. Where you start the drive. The closer you are to your own goal line when you gain possession, the fewer points you are expected to gain. In fact, inside about your own nine yard line, the expected value is negative, which makes sense because the other team can score on a turnover. Like what happened in the closing seconds of last year's Buffalo-Minnesota game. And obviously the closer to the other team's goal line, your expected points would be higher.

I tried getting the data involved but without a deep dive, the best I could get is a graph showing what the "Expected Points" would be for all of the starting positions on the field. Basically if you get the ball at midfield to start a drive, you're expected to score 2.5 points. If you get the ball at your own forty, it's about 2.4 points. At the twenty, it's about 0.8 points. It works like that. Roughly.

So assuming the other team punts from an average of about their own 35 yard line, which is roughly the league average for punts, and hits it about 45 yards, which is around the league average, the ball will be fielded at the twenty yard line. Assuming you field (and return) four such punts in a game. Is your offense better served by having your returner make one big return to midfield and then do nothing on the other three, or with a guy who gets it to the 28 each and every time? Yes, of course it doesn't work EXACTLY like that in the real world, but isn't that what analytics in sports does? That is the purpose of its existence. It's what teams look at. It's what teams have used to change the way the game is played.

From a purely mathematical perspective, it's pretty close. It looks like a team that gets one to the fifty and doesn't return the others for more than a couple yards (30 yards plus 2 equals 8.0 yards per average) would be expected to score about 4.9 points on their four drives. Or "net" 4.9 points when you consider defensive scores against you. You'd get the 2.5 point advantage for the drive that begins at midfield and about 2.4 (0.8 times three) that get you next to nothing.

On the other hand, if you get eight yards each and every time and start at the 28 yard line, it's about 5.0 points. The 28 yard line is right at about 1.25 points on the graph. So four times 1.25 equals 5.0. So it seems to me that a team is actually better off with a returner who can consistently gain an average return compared to one who breaks big ones but also only "averages" the league average.

It's this last point that I think is tripping up most people. When they imagine a guy who's a big threat, they're assuming his other returns are average too -- and while that is certainly possible, it's not what we're talking about. OF COURSE we want that. Who the F wouldn't? That's maybe DeSean Jackson in his first few seasons. Or Devin Hester when he was tearing up the league. But a guy like that is by definition better than average. And we're not comparing a "better than average" returner to an "average" returner. We're trying to differentiate between "average" returners with different skill sets. It's not the same thing!!

Incidentally, the math pretty much works out the same if we're doing a starting spot of the 30 or the 40. Instead of 5.0 vs 4.9, it's 7.2 vs 7.1 when you start at thirty, and 9.6 vs 9.5 when you start at the forty.

My point? You're probably better off with a consistently average returner than one who is erratic but dangerous. Assuming ball security and decision making (NOT Greg Ward who routinely lets punts hit the ground and then roll for another ten yards) are the same in both cases.

I think the question was asked yesterday about 20+ yard punt returns across the entire league last season.  Here's what I found:

20+ yard punt returns -- 70 during the season.  That sounds like a lot, but it's just over 2 per team.  The Eagles had 3 of those.  NE and CIN led with 5 

40+ yard punt returns -- 10 during the season.  Only 8 teams had a PR over 40 yards.  The Eagles were not one of them.  Lions and Ravens led with 2 each.

 

I think some of you guys might be looking for a punt returner who doesn't exist in today's game anymore.

I don't have any public data to support this, but a dangerous returner does impact the opposing punter. They will focus more on hang time than distance for fair catches, providing hidden yards. With Covey as the returner, there's no reason for opposing punters not to boom punts.

Is it still only the Jets that have worked out Araiza?

2 hours ago, brkmsn said:

 Imagine if the same question was asked about RBs. "That RB gets tackled at the LOS  on almost every run, but makes up for it by taking 12 or 13 to the house each season!!!"

You basically just described Barry Sanders, one of the best to ever play the position.

18 minutes ago, RLC said:

I don't have any public data to support this, but a dangerous returner does impact the opposing punter. They will focus more on hang time than distance for fair catches, providing hidden yards. With Covey as the returner, there's no reason for opposing punters not to boom punts.

Can you give a list of dangerous punt returners from 2022?