EMB Blog: 2021 Offseason

[ManuManu]

18 minutes ago, BigEFly said:

I am not sure rookie scale is how to look at it.  Let’s say he top two rounds of 2019, 2020 and 2021 all warrant second contracts commiserate with draft ranking.   That’s a starting LT, RB, QB, 2 WRs before even factoring in four picks next year.  That’s a lot of cap hit.   That’s not a bad position to be in talent wise but cap wise it can be difficult. So the idea of spreading a bit of next year’s draft capital forward into 2023 makes sense.  

That’s a problem for 5 years from now, and that’s assuming all of those picks end up worthy of a big second contract. It really makes no sense to push a first round pick into the future unless you get a great deal or hate the quality of player when you’re on the clock. And this wouldn’t be the first time a team made three first round picks.

Like I said, there’s no reason to do mental gymnastics over making three first round picks. 

[RLC]

1 minute ago, ManuManu said:

That’s a problem for 5 years from now, and that’s assuming all of those picks end up worthy of a big second contract. It really makes no sense to push a first round pick into the future unless you get a great deal or hate the quality of player when you’re on the clock. And this wouldn’t be the first time a team made three first round picks.

Like I said, there’s no reason to do mental gymnastics over making three first round picks. 

Conceptually, I don't love the idea of using 3 1st round picks in the same year. There's more value of trading out of RD1, then getting more assets (Ex: 2023 1st + 2022nd 3rd + 2022 5) and constantly rolling that over. There's also the benefit of never having to give out mega-extensions at the same time if you hit.

Of course, if you're on the board and there's value there, take the best player and avoid trading down.

The beauty of multiple picks is optionality. Don't get locked into one strategy. 

[ManuManu]

10 minutes ago, RLC said:

Conceptually, I don't love the idea of using 3 1st round picks in the same year. There's more value of trading out of RD1, then getting more assets (Ex: 2023 1st + 2022nd 3rd + 2022 5) and constantly rolling that over. There's also the benefit of never having to give out mega-extensions at the same time if you hit.

Of course, if you're on the board and there's value there, take the best player and avoid trading down.

The beauty of multiple picks is optionality. Don't get locked into one strategy. 

This. 

We saw the Dolphins make three first round picks last year and then use a high first round pick this year to turn into two first round picks (three if they didn’t move from 12 to six). 

The "two mega contracts” argument doesn’t hold any water to me. We aren’t cash poor, and good teams have very expensive players.We can make it work easily. 

[bpac55]

Can anyone watch this and honestly say he was worth a 3rd round pick?  There may have been 3 good plays where he actually reads, reacts and explodes to the ball.  Otherwise his highlights are just him showing off his speed chasing guys downfield.  No surprise, his big "highlight" his rookie year was he chased down Lamar Jackson.  If you're a Davion Taylor fan, can you tell me what you see in him that makes you think he's anything but a ST player?

 

[Guest justrelax]

1 hour ago, BigEFly said:

Are assistants really mostly former players or are assistants mostly assistants that worked their way up through the ranks, whether starting as graduate assistant coaches in college, high school coaches or assistant quality control coaches? Some happen to be former NFL players, some never played professionally.   It tends to be a process and some never progress very far.  Some shine right away.  And a good teacher of fundamentals isn’t necessarily a good play designer or a good play caller.   

Unless I am mistaken- always a possibility - only Mike Ditka won a SB as HC and was a starter as a player. I’m sure there are a bunch who were backups, starting with Doug Peterson. Tony Dungy too.

[RLC]

26 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

The "two mega contracts” argument doesn’t hold any water to me. We aren’t cash poor, and good teams have very expensive players.We can make it work easily. 

If you have to extend 3 1st round caliber players at the same time, of course you can make that work. It also makes it way harder to sign any other players (free agents or the rest of the draft class). 

Of course, this implies you hit on all your first rounders...a good problem to have.

[LeanMeanGM]

11 hours ago, Swoop said:

It's a lot of things:

- The fact that he, throughout college and so far in the pros, is a one read QB.

- The fact that he completed 52% of his passes 

- The fact that when defenses were not playing prevent/actually made adjustments he was absolutely putrid.

- The fact that he was near the top of the league (I believe) in fumbles despite only playing 3 full games.

- The fact that he got increasingly worse with each start. He beat the Saints and had a good first half. He only had a good quarter against the Cardinals. He only had a few good drives against Dallas. Washington was a crap show.

There are a lot of concerns.

Don't misunderstand, as some people do. I truly hope the kid shuts me up. I hope he's the greatest player to ever wear an Eagles jersey. I commend him for being a (seemingly) good dude and working hard. 

But I have serious reservations about him going forward.

To add to the list:

48% completion percentage for non play action plays 

60% throws were on target 

Average time to throw was 3.39 seconds 

There’s reason to be concerned. I don’t have a problem if anyone is optimistic and I too hope to be proven wrong, but I will remain realistic with my expectations until proven wrong. 

[Texas Eagle]

5 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

Can anyone watch this and honestly say he was worth a 3rd round pick?  There may have been 3 good plays where he actually reads, reacts and explodes to the ball.  Otherwise his highlights are just him showing off his speed chasing guys downfield.  No surprise, his big "highlight" his rookie year was he chased down Lamar Jackson.  If you're a Davion Taylor fan, can you tell me what you see in him that makes you think he's anything but a ST player?

 

There’s nothing there but speed. Can’t teach speed though so he can probably make it as a STer if coached properly.

[Swoop]

23 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

To add to the list:

48% completion percentage for non play action plays 

60% throws were on target 

Average time to throw was 3.39 seconds 

There’s reason to be concerned. I don’t have a problem if anyone is optimistic and I too hope to be proven wrong, but I will remain realistic with my expectations until proven wrong. 

For your first stat, I have seen people defend him saying he threw the ball away when the play wasn't there. That's true, but the context is usually ignored.

Knowing when to put the ball in the dirt/out of bounds when a play is dead is great. Wentz couldve and shouldve done it more. Having said that, I'm not patting Hurts on the back for rolling out to the right, seeing his one read covered and then throwing it out of bounds several times in a game.

[Guest]

29 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

To add to the list:

48% completion percentage for non play action plays 

60% throws were on target 

Average time to throw was 3.39 seconds 

There’s reason to be concerned. I don’t have a problem if anyone is optimistic and I too hope to be proven wrong, but I will remain realistic with my expectations until proven wrong. 

And add 46.9 completion percentage in the second half shows how easily DC’s adjusted to him.  That is not gonna get better the more film they have on him.

[ManuManu]

4 minutes ago, downundermike said:

And add 46.9 completion percentage in the second half shows how easily DC’s adjusted to him.  That is not gonna get better the more film they have on him.

This type of argument presumes that Hurts can’t make improvements or adjustments. 

Coaching matters. 

Surrounding cast matters. 

Hurts’ own improvement matters. 

Quoting his second half stats from last year does not ensure future performance. 

[Swoop]

5 minutes ago, downundermike said:

And add 46.9 completion percentage in the second half shows how easily DC’s adjusted to him.  That is not gonna get better the more film they have on him.

You wouldn't think so, no. We already saw this last season as he went from a solid first start to dog**** against Washington. As we saw, the adjustments came sooner and sooner when teams faced us.

[jsb235]

4 minutes ago, downundermike said:

And add 46.9 completion percentage in the second half shows how easily DC’s adjusted to him. 

 He had more yards in the second half of the Cardinals game than in the first.

He had 180 yards of offense in the second half of the Cowboys game. As a comparison, Daniel Jones had 246 yards of offense against the Cowboys in the entire game.

But yes, DC's adjusted to him and shut him down.

[ManuManu]

41 minutes ago, RLC said:

If you have to extend 3 1st round caliber players at the same time, of course you can make that work. It also makes it way harder to sign any other players (free agents or the rest of the draft class). 

Of course, this implies you hit on all your first rounders...a good problem to have.

And the thing is, hitting on those picks leaves fewer holes to fill, and signing those guys to extensions tend to be much cheaper than getting a similar player in FA. It’s a win no matter how you slice it. 

[LeanMeanGM]

10 minutes ago, Swoop said:

For your first stat, I have seen people defend him saying he threw the ball away when the play wasn't there. That's true, but the context is usually ignored.

Knowing when to put the ball in the dirt/out of bounds when a play is dead is great. Wentz couldve and shouldve done it more. Having said that, I'm not patting Hurts on the back for rolling out to the right, seeing his one read covered and then throwing it out of bounds several times in a game.

Throw aways aside, the point of the first stat was he was bad in non play action. When they ran play action plays his completion percentage was much higher at 66% which would put him around 16th in the league. He was a limited QB who needed the benefit of play action to reach that. They aren’t going to spam play action passes every play or situation so he needs to improve in non PA. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, jsb235 said:

 He had more yards in the second half of the Cardinals game than in the first.

He had 180 yards of offense in the second half of the Cowboys game. As a comparison, Daniel Jones had 246 yards of offense against the Cowboys in the entire game.

But yes, DC's adjusted to him and shut him down.

He led the team to points on 2 of 22 second half drives.

[ManuManu]

 

[Swoop]

2 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

This type of argument presumes that Hurts can’t make improvements or adjustments. 

Coaching matters. 

Surrounding cast matters. 

Hurts’ own improvement matters. 

Quoting his second half stats from last year does not ensure future performance. 

To be fair, I don't think he literally means it will never get beyond that number. I think the point is that teams will get more familiar with how to shut him down, sooner.

 

2 minutes ago, jsb235 said:

 He had more yards in the second half of the Cardinals game than in the first.

He had 180 yards of offense in the second half of the Cowboys game. As a comparison, Daniel Jones had 246 yards of offense against the Cowboys in the entire game.

But yes, DC's adjusted to him and shut him down.

From the first half to the second:

His completion percentage dropped from 59% to 46%. His QB rating was essentially cut in half. His Y/A decreased. His turnovers increased. He took more sacks.

So yes, they did adjust and shut him down.

[RememberTheKoy]

Ahh so back to one of the weakest arguments of the second half.

 

The pathetic Hurts haters stuck in the same loop. 

[ManuManu]

1 minute ago, Swoop said:

To be fair, I don't think he literally means it will never get beyond that number. I think the point is that teams will get more familiar with how to shut him down, sooner.

 

From the first half to the second:

His completion percentage dropped from 59% to 46%. His QB rating was essentially cut in half. His Y/A decreased. His turnovers increased. He took more sacks.

So yes, they did adjust and shut him down.

And my point is that he can make improvements based on various circumstances that make it more difficult for teams to adjust. 

I don’t have much hope for Hurts as a legit starting QB, but I’m not holding last year’s train wreck against him either. 

[LeanMeanGM]

40% completion percentage on 3rd down.

 

Big oof. 

[Swoop]

Jalen Hurts trailing with under 2 minutes to go:

31.5% for 0 TDs, 2 INT, 3.9 YPA and a whopping QB rating of 5.3

Yikes.

 

[jsb235]

3 minutes ago, Swoop said:

From the first half to the second:

His completion percentage dropped from 59% to 46%. His QB rating was essentially cut in half. His Y/A decreased. His turnovers increased. He took more sacks.

So yes, they did adjust and shut him down.

Except for the whole gaining yards stats. Which kind of matters. 

[RememberTheKoy]

It's as if gaining experience and coaching adjustments on the offensive side have no value whatsoever to these people desperately clinging to the arbitrary second half stat. 

[LeanMeanGM]

Just now, Swoop said:

Jalen Hurts trailing with under 2 minutes to go:

31.5% for 0 TDs, 2 INT, 3.9 YPA and a whopping QB rating of 5.3

Yikes.

 

This is actually good because he was throwing the ball away with less than 2 minutes. Or something.