2 hours ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Expecting painter to be skenes in his first year in in majors isn’t realistic. Or realistic at all. He still has upside. The fact is Abel had a 5+ era with the Phillies and then an 8+ with the twins last year. He’s been good his last two starts but still has a 3.98 with 10 walks in 20 IP. Unless you are a kid like skenes the odds you come out looking like an ace in year one is relatively low. In 2021 Sanchez had a 4.97 era and in 2022 he had a 5.63 ERA. Imo need to give painter at least a year and a half to see if he makes improvements and see what he is. I think more realistic he is a 2-3 which is fine with Sanchez and if you get luzardo back on track.

Miller has a back issue currently. Hard to know what his development is until he actually plays. He was actually peaking late in the season and trending the right direction. His last two months his slashes were .356/.457/1.100. Those are ridiculous numbers once he figured things out and got fully healthy. Imo i think there’s also some being cautious but also avoiding losing a year of arbitration with all this.

They aren’t great at scouting however most prospects aren’t just great off the bat in the majors. Usually a learning curve. Or if they are great they then tend to struggle for a picks as teams adjust. Paul skenes and guys like that are like the rare 5-10%.

That said issue is have Dave making trades with guys if they unload. The current FO who we are claiming stinks at identifying talent, overrates prospects and is subpar at developing them are making deals for those guys. So if you are unhappy with what they’ve done to date in that department then probably don’t want them picking prospects in these trades

I'm not trying to argue that Painter and Miller are going to be busts (although the Phillies track record with prospects HEAVILY suggests they will be)...just that their chances of significant success with this franchise are sufficiently low that their net present value isn't all that much.

Painter frankly hasn't been effective on the mound beyond AA. Lehigh Valley was a struggle for him. The only reason his era is as low as it is right now (and it's not that low) is because he gets yanked early in every start.

As individuals, there's plenty of time and patience to preach for Painter and Miller.

As a franchise/system, it's abysmal that they represent the only help on the way.

Painter hasn't really impressed me all that much. He has some nice movement on his pitches but I was thinking he was gonna be a bigger strikeout guy than he is. I based this on the projections I was reading about him. Yeah, him struggling at Triple AAA last year should have been a clue to lower my expectations. Right now he is a 4-5 inning pitcher and where he was drafted and all the hype that came with it, very underwhelming. Could he eventually turn into a #1 or even a #2? Sure, but only time will tell.

In regards to Aidan Miller, I'm lowering my expectations by a lot. A 21 year old with a balky back? Really? He's still not swinging a bat. I would bet money this dude doesn't play any games without restrictions until July at the earliest which means he isn't getting called up to the big club anytime soon.

1 hour ago, eagle45 said:

I'm not trying to argue that Painter and Miller are going to be busts (although the Phillies track record with prospects HEAVILY suggests they will be)...just that their chances of significant success with this franchise are sufficiently low that their net present value isn't all that much.

Painter frankly hasn't been effective on the mound beyond AA. Lehigh Valley was a struggle for him. The only reason his era is as low as it is right now (and it's not that low) is because he gets yanked early in every start.

As individuals, there's plenty of time and patience to preach for Painter and Miller.

As a franchise/system, it's abysmal that they represent the only help on the way.

Painter only had 1 season in triple A coming off a major injury. He was on an inning restriction and building back up. The issue is with you’re expecting painter in his first season to just be great. It is very rare prospects come up and they’re great right from the start in every league unless they are truly elite prospects. He was a great prospect before his injury. At this point, you gotta give him time to get himself back to where he was cause he hasn’t pitched all that much last year as inning restriction and a year removed from not pitching in nearly 1.5 years. He legitimately missed 2023 and 2024 with TJ surgery. Two years is a lot then asking him in just 100IP to be what he was again. asking a lot if you expect him to be Zach Wheeler and his first year after TJ and first year in the mlb. Heck Wheeler didn’t become wheeler until down the road. Ditto with Sanchez. Ditto with Ranger.

As for miller he hit .357/.457/.1.110 for two months when he finally got healthy last year and adjusted to what he was seeing. He is not Bryce Harper or skenes or strasburg type prospect. But he’s shown improvement in each league and gotten better over time. Those are traits you want to see

The other issue is, why are you gonna trade away prospects for a team whose window is shut. Even last year what they’d have gotten doesn’t necessarily put them over the top of LA and then you gave up the hope for the future as well as didn’t win a title. Imo what they could’ve gotten at last years deadline wasn’t beating the dodgers. That bat they needed didn’t exist. 2 years ago they could’ve done it but at that point miller wasn’t in the realm of prospect he is now and painter was going to be Ranger and wheeler replacement before TJ. Even if you dealt them for a bat in 2023, that market wasn’t exactly great. If I’m dealing two top 50 prospects i want a legit star which may have gotten but also pay the price as he leaves in FA the following offseason

Bigger issue to me is if you think every prospect we have is going to be a bust due to who’s in charge then you don’t want Dave or FO making these deals at the deadline this year cause they identify prospects poorly and you’ll lose every deal. Which is fine but at that point need to clean house and not doing that midseason

49 minutes ago, vsptroops said:

Painter hasn't really impressed me all that much. He has some nice movement on his pitches but I was thinking he was gonna be a bigger strikeout guy than he is. I based this on the projections I was reading about him. Yeah, him struggling at Triple AAA last year should have been a clue to lower my expectations. Right now he is a 4-5 inning pitcher and where he was drafted and all the hype that came with it, very underwhelming. Could he eventually turn into a #1 or even a #2? Sure, but only time will tell.

In regards to Aidan Miller, I'm lowering my expectations by a lot. A 21 year old with a balky back? Really? He's still not swinging a bat. I would bet money this dude doesn't play any games without restrictions until July at the earliest which means he isn't getting called up to the big club anytime soon.

Miller arrival date was always expected to be either after all star break in 2026 or 2027. Imo miller has the back issue. I also think the Phillies don’t want to waste a year of arbitration with him. So it’s easier to bring him along slower knowing you aren’t using him until that date and frankly if they are really bad i doubt they even bring him up until September if then as why risk it. I think he is being brought back from the back more slowly due to the injury but also the Phillies know they can take their time as they are avoiding the whole arbitration years issue with him.

With painter, he didn’t pitch for 1.5-2 years. Then last year he was inning restriction and didn’t exactly pitch a ton. The Phillies not doing TJ sooner screwed him cause he’s further behind where he probably should be if they just did the TJ when it happened. I don’t think he’ll be an Ace like wheeler but i still think with more time and development he can be better than luzardo (last year) and somewhat like ranger but with better stuff

41 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Miller arrival date was always expected to be either after all star break in 2026 or 2027. Imo miller has the back issue. I also think the Phillies don’t want to waste a year of arbitration with him. So it’s easier to bring him along slower knowing you aren’t using him until that date and frankly if they are really bad i doubt they even bring him up until September if then as why risk it. I think he is being brought back from the back more slowly due to the injury but also the Phillies know they can take their time as they are avoiding the whole arbitration years issue with him.

With painter, he didn’t pitch for 1.5-2 years. Then last year he was inning restriction and didn’t exactly pitch a ton. The Phillies not doing TJ sooner screwed him cause he’s further behind where he probably should be if they just did the TJ when it happened. I don’t think he’ll be an Ace like wheeler but i still think with more time and development he can be better than luzardo (last year) and somewhat like ranger but with better stuff

I looked up service time requirement for MLB prospects. After 16 days, a team can bring up a prospect and not have that count against their arbitration time line so we are well past that point. They need to reach 172 days for that year to count. His back is concerning because they have been on record stating they dont know how he injured it. He didnt play Winter ball and as soon as spring training gets here, it hurts again? Yeah they may be bringing him along slowly, but its not because of service time. When DD was asked if he had any injections, he refused to answer, using HIPAA as an out. What does that mean to me? Yeah, he had some injections which again, is concerning being as he is only 21.

8 minutes ago, vsptroops said:

I looked up service time requirement for MLB prospects. After 16 days, a team can bring up a prospect and not have that count against their arbitration time line so we are well past that point. They need to reach 172 days for that year to count. His back is concerning because they have been on record stating they dont know how he injured it. He didnt play Winter ball and as soon as spring training gets here, it hurts again? Yeah they may be bringing him along slowly, but its not because of service time. When DD was asked if he had any injections, he refused to answer, using HIPAA as an out. What does that mean to me? Yeah, he had some injections which again, is concerning being as he is only 21.

He wasn’t going to answer that question whether he did or he didn’t. Regardless of HIPPA or not. They give minimal details for anyone not on the major league club. Heck they gave minimal updates with painter prior to his TJ surgery. They gave generic updates every few weeks or month. They won’t give you full details unless he requires major surgery or not. Heck Crawford got hurt last year and they gave minimal details about it. I don’t read anything into injections or not. Dombrowski did that with Boston and tigers as well. He will on mlb guys and sometimes Dave even with mlb rostered guys he lies about things

Add on the service time theres 187 total days from opening day to end of season. So keeping him out two full weeks was always happening to avoid that. So he was never making the opening day roster and his projection time was always post all star break 2026 or 2027. I really don’t think miller was in their plans for 2026 kind of like they did with Crawford. Where even if he was great he’s there all year. Add on he’s supposedly swinging this week. I find it very coincidental that 15 days past and now rumors he’s swinging this week.

1 hour ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Painter only had 1 season in triple A coming off a major injury. He was on an inning restriction and building back up. The issue is with you’re expecting painter in his first season to just be great. It is very rare prospects come up and they’re great right from the start in every league unless they are truly elite prospects. He was a great prospect before his injury. At this point, you gotta give him time to get himself back to where he was cause he hasn’t pitched all that much last year as inning restriction and a year removed from not pitching in nearly 1.5 years. He legitimately missed 2023 and 2024 with TJ surgery. Two years is a lot then asking him in just 100IP to be what he was again. asking a lot if you expect him to be Zach Wheeler and his first year after TJ and first year in the mlb. Heck Wheeler didn’t become wheeler until down the road. Ditto with Sanchez. Ditto with Ranger.

As for miller he hit .357/.457/.1.110 for two months when he finally got healthy last year and adjusted to what he was seeing. He is not Bryce Harper or skenes or strasburg type prospect. But he’s shown improvement in each league and gotten better over time. Those are traits you want to see

The other issue is, why are you gonna trade away prospects for a team whose window is shut. Even last year what they’d have gotten doesn’t necessarily put them over the top of LA and then you gave up the hope for the future as well as didn’t win a title. Imo what they could’ve gotten at last years deadline wasn’t beating the dodgers. That bat they needed didn’t exist. 2 years ago they could’ve done it but at that point miller wasn’t in the realm of prospect he is now and painter was going to be Ranger and wheeler replacement before TJ. Even if you dealt them for a bat in 2023, that market wasn’t exactly great. If I’m dealing two top 50 prospects i want a legit star which may have gotten but also pay the price as he leaves in FA the following offseason

Bigger issue to me is if you think every prospect we have is going to be a bust due to who’s in charge then you don’t want Dave or FO making these deals at the deadline this year cause they identify prospects poorly and you’ll lose every deal. Which is fine but at that point need to clean house and not doing that midseason

At this point it’s all about prospects. I’d sell at the deadline and have someone other than DD make the decisions.

But I would have considered trading them off 2 years ago for an incrementally higher chance of getting over the top. Probably wouldn’t have worked out, but the other side of the coin is they probably won’t work out either. We wouldn’t be much worse off than we are now.

@e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! the real point in this…the Phillies system hasn’t produced a single outstanding player since Rollins/Utley/Cole/Howard. We are talking decades ago.

Painter and Miller may or may not end up being very good. But they really are going to have to buy a new middle of the order. They simply aren’t going to scout one. Their system will produce some Bohms and Stotts and Hoskins and Francos, but until proven otherwise, it’s only going to be complementary players. They’ll have to buy the blue chippers.

48 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

At this point it’s all about prospects. I’d sell at the deadline and have someone other than DD make the decisions.

But I would have considered trading them off 2 years ago for an incrementally higher chance of getting over the top. Probably wouldn’t have worked out, but the other side of the coin is they probably won’t work out either. We wouldn’t be much worse off than we are now.

Disagree they wouldnt be that much worse off cause you’d have no prospect in the system besides Crawford and gage. Add in if you were making a deadline deal it was miller and painter so you’d be down to basically nothing in your farm system at that time. That’s significantly worse off. Neither painter or miller may turn out to be good but you literally have nothing in the pipeline besides gage and Crawford (he might have also been included) and at the time really nothing. Can’t have a farm system with no Hope or prospects. Might not think those guys are going much but they still have more potential than having basically just 1 guy or nothing. You’d basically have sold out for 2023 and if it failed be significantly worse off imo. Can’t just say they won’t be good anyway so trade them. They weren’t exactly churning out studs besides Rolen before they got to Ruiz, Hamels, Howard, utley and Rollins. Heck they nearly dealt Howard in what would’ve been a disastrous deal and there were people who said the same thing you were at that time.

24 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

@e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! the real point in this…the Phillies system hasn’t produced a single outstanding player since Rollins/Utley/Cole/Howard. We are talking decades ago.

Painter and Miller may or may not end up being very good. But they really are going to have to buy a new middle of the order. They simply aren’t going to scout one. Their system will produce some Bohms and Stotts and Hoskins and Francos, but until proven otherwise, it’s only going to be complementary players. They’ll have to buy the blue chippers.

Buying guys is always going to be included. They are a big market team. However can’t have an entire roster of just buying everything. Even the 2022 Phillies you had guys like Ranger, Nola, Hoskins, Bohm, Dominguez and even eflin (basically traded in the minors and developed here) were guys that contributed to that roster.

I’d also argue Ranger Suarez and even Nola were good development players. Issue is we shouldn’t have given Nola his extension. Prior to that he was a good hit for them. Their development of position players is awful. However can’t just not have a farm system and trade everyone away and pay everyone. It’s why they haven’t added guys we badly needed since Turner signed because in the FA market you’re gonna overpay for guys who are probably 2-3 years til the end of their prime (some because of how baseball contracts work) and Phillies don’t have dodger or Mets type of money to go to $350 or $400+ mil.

the Phillies don’t have dodger money or even Mets money, so the limited to a certain amount. They hit their cap of how much they can spend. It’s why their offseasons have been what they have been since the Turner signing. It’s why you can’t just build a baseball team paying everybody via FA and just trade away prospect assuming they’ll fail anyway. Jayson stark has said this multiple times they are overspending what they ideally want to right now (by a good amount) and really don’t have that type of money long term to keep doing it. They need to develop guys not just continue to trade away everyone.

Issue is they need to clean house and hire people who’ve done development elsewhere and achieved success. The issue at this point is find different FO that can identify and develop talent better. Not just keep trading prospects to help now and worry about farm system later. Eventually that erodes and get stuck with bigger contracts that prevents you for extra years when need to build the next core

They tried to build a winner through trades and free agency and fill in with their players ,which is the opposite if how it needs to be done and they are paying the price for that now and for many years to come

12 minutes ago, Joe Shades 73 said:

They tried to build a winner through trades and free agency and fill in with their players ,which is the opposite if how it needs to be done and they are paying the price for that now and for many years to come

The reason it’s hard to maintain is you have to have ownership willing to just outright spend or maneuver ways like the dodgers. But also most FA in mlb are around 28-29 years old or older as they reach FA. Harper is an exception not the norm when he made it at 26. So if you want a big fish then probably giving a 8-10 year deal. Probably could get 4 maybe 5 good years then gonna have a bunch of time where not worth it and overpaying. Which hurts your next era/team building.

This team is somehow currently more unwatchable than the pre Harper era

The MLB team is toast until 2030+ when they get all the old guys off the books. They should put every last dollar they have into the international prospect pool to stack up on guys like Renteria with 2030+ eta’s. Start the process now.

Weird that was Crawford’s first RBI of the whole season.

1 hour ago, BirdsFanBill said:

This team is somehow currently more unwatchable than the pre Harper era

I don't see how Robby T doesn't get fired considering how he got the job

The question of when they fire Topper, which they will, is just shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic.

The two interesting time points…

1. Trade deadline. DD will probably want the trade deadline to come and go uneventfully. He isn’t going to want the humiliation of selling (plus they have limited assets to sell for difference-making prospects…only Wheeler if he makes it back). But I highly doubt Middleton would allow DD to give up prospects for rentals for this team as a buyer. So I’d imagine they’d to their best sit on their hands.

2. Offseason. This is where it gets really interesting. There’s only so much they can do to "pull the plug” with all the salary they have on the books. All they can really do is wait and not spend more money right now. And both the fans and Harper are going to revolt if they don’t touch the roster in the offseason.

Still one game ahead of the Mets. Who btw have lost 11 in a row.

52 minutes ago, Diehardfan said:

I don't see how Robby T doesn't get fired considering how he got the job

Yep

12 hours ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Looking at the roster with guys I think they’d trade or get calls on 

Marsh

Stott— i think a team will look at his defense and believe they can get more out of his bat than Kevin long has 

Garcia— see a team wanting a bench bat and defensive replacement in late games 

Sosa

Duran

Keller 

Banks 

Kerkering — believe someone would give up a middle tier prospect thinking they could make him better 

Wheeler— depends on how he looks when he comes back and if he’d want to be dealt

Potentially Alvarado if he can figure crap out which doesn’t seem likely. 

I’d also say nola if he’s decent but he has a No trade due to his service time and they’d have to eat significant money on his contract 

Almost all of these guys would yield low level prospects that would never see the light of day. From DD’s vantage point, none of these prospects they’d get for these guys would be enough to accept the stigma of being a seller.

Stott’s glove may get him consideration…but most teams trading for a light hitting glove are doing so at short, not 2b. And Stott probably can play short pretty well still, but teams aren’t going to give up a prospect for him just to field just to switch to the other side of the infield either.

Duran might get them something. At this point I wish we could get back what we traded for him in prospects. And he won’t get them that much. So that depends on DD being willing to take yet another L.

Wheeler is the big fish. IF he can impress on his return, of course.

2 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

Almost all of these guys would yield low level prospects that would never see the light of day. From DD’s vantage point, none of these prospects they’d get for these guys would be enough to accept the stigma of being a seller.

Stott’s glove may get him consideration…but most teams trading for a light hitting glove are doing so at short, not 2b. And Stott probably can play short pretty well still, but teams aren’t going to give up a prospect for him just to field just to switch to the other side of the infield either.

Duran might get them something. At this point I wish we could get back what we traded for him in prospects. And he won’t get them that much. So that depends on DD being willing to take yet another L.

Wheeler is the big fish. IF he can impress on his return, of course.

Disagree on low yield prospect for Duran and Keller. Duran gonna return sooner rather than later. If he’s lights out like he has been in his career, some team who’s in the playoff race will give you a good prospect. You’re just not gonna get multiple good prospects. Heck the dodgers with Diaz down might just say F it give you a good prospect and a middle/low prospect. Also think if Keller picks it up like he did last year as the season went on, he is going to command a nice prospects. Because bullpen arms at the deadline get over paid for.

Wheeler could catch you a nice couple prospects if he’s still good. Gives another team 1.5 years of control and a huge boost to try to win a WS. Tbh need to ask him if he’s ok being dealt to a contender.

Stott is never going to get a top tier prospect. Probably gets you a middle to low end prospect. He also has hit better lately. He has a 7 game hit streak (and his defense is top one of the best at his position). So he might have just been awful to start as he’s picking it up. I’ve said this numerous times, id bet a lot of money he is going to go somewhere after Philly with a better hitting coach and he’ll be better there than here. Not utley or anything but I’d bet he becomes much more consistent.

I think marsh will get a middle level prospect. A team that needs a good LH bat that hits RH pitching well will give up that type of prospect. It’s not killing their farm system to give up a middle range prospect for a chance at an WS and a solid platoon option. Add on around mlb OF help is always a need.

The rest id deal to just get out of some contract. Like if i could just dump nola, realmuto, Garcia and Bohm

Phillies are 0 for last 22 with RISP and havent had a hit with RISP since last Tuesday.

Phillies rank 27th in SP era at 5.28

It’s not still "early.” If this team had showed signs of being a great baseball team over the last few years that just came up short, it would still be early. This team has not been able to hit in the clutch nor can they hit with runners in scoring position. Now you can add the pitching stinks and so does base-running/basic fundamentals. Put a fork in them. The Sixers are closer to a champion than the Phillies and the Sixers are far away.

The only glimmer of hope I see is that advanced metrics think our starting pitchers have been much better than the ERA would suggest - our defense has done a terrible job of helping them out. That doesn't solve the hitting issues that have been present for the past 3 years that DD seemed to think would just magically get better when he decided to run it back for another year.

I don't even watch Baseball.

But, booooo. Booooooo. Boooooo.

Overpaid Bums!!