2 hours ago, Blazehound said:

I’m starting to get concerned about Nola long term. His fastball is down, his walk rate is up and his ERA with men on base is something like 9+. He is going to need to adjust his pitching style to his physical limitations, which I am not confident he can do, let alone in the middle of a season.

Not sure he’s even adjusted greatly to the pitch clock. The pitch clock has also screwed with him. That’s when his troubles kind of began. He managed in 2024 to do a good job with it but in 2023 he was not great either.

Now he has a slower velocity (which really he couldn’t afford to lose), K rate is down, WHIP is the highest of his career, his K/walk ratio is worst of his career, giving up 10.4 hits per 9 (highest of his career), HRs per 9 is the highest of his career and walk rate per 9 is tied for highest of his career. Last year he had 17 starts gave up 63 ERs in 94.1 innings. He’s on pace in his first 17 starts this year to go 86 innings giving up 57.

Id have less concerned if he was in his 20s or just turned 30. But he’s about to be 33 with a ton of innings from early in his career. But 2.5 of the last 3.5 years he hasn’t been very good. This is what a pitcher tends looks like when they get the 33 and breaking down. This is why I said it is rare that Wheeler is throwing the way he is at 36 years old. Why wheeler if he continues this should keep pitching. Don’t get an infinite amount of time so if you are still at that high of a level go til the wheels fall off. It’s what verlander did. Now verlander should retire but he was still good late 30s

I’m a big analytics person, they do not suggest nola is going to find that consistency. With luzardo his stuff is still elite. He’s had a lot of unfortunate defense behind him and 1 implosion inning every couple of starts. So analytics favor him getting better over time. That’s not the case with Nola so far this year

44 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Money is a factor.

3 hours ago, DrPhilly said:

We shall see. In any case, while the money is always a factor it isn’t like there is a hard cap. There is also a pretty high upside possibility if he could find just a bit of his previous form.

You were always going to have to take some form and level of risk with #5. I’m good with the mix Nola brings for the moment. If he continues to totally suck for another month then they can take a risk on someone else. The money is already sunk in any case at this point so nothing can be done about that.

Yep, just as I wrote right in the beginning of my post.

45 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Can say that’s a sunk cost, but you are also dealing with the sunk cost fallacy. Where you don’t want accept the sunk cost and move on as you want to believe its value is coming back or something that is not anymore.

This situation isn't the same as the typical "sunk cost" situation. We aren't talking about throwing new good money in now. We also can't "sell" and cut our losses financially as no team is going to take on that contract. The best option at this point is to ride Nola as the 5ht starter for another month or so and hope he can improve. As I said before, he's already an ok 5th starter albeit a VERY expensive one and the money is already spent. If we get another cheap option that we like then we can put Nola in the long relief/emergency category and let him rot away for the next couple of years.

7 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

Yep, just as I wrote right in the beginning of my post.

1 minute ago, DrPhilly said:

This situation isn't the same as the typical "sunk cost" situation. We aren't talking about throwing new good money in now. We also can't "sell" and cut our losses financially as no team is going to take on that contract. The best option at this point is to ride Nola as the 5ht starter for another month or so and hope he can improve. As I said before, he's already an ok 5th starter albeit a VERY expensive one and the money is already spent. If we get another cheap option that we like then we can put Nola in the long relief/emergency category and let him rot away for the next couple of years.

So you know they’re not gonna stick with Aaron nola all the way through the season even at 24.6 million if he’s not even gonna give you five innings. That’s not even a 5th starter. Which is basically the point that we’ve gotten to over the last month. So they’re gonna invest new money because they’re gonna have to trade assets to get themselves a 5th starter or go with wood who they’re gonna move up faster than they probably wanted or anticipated.

also, nola is not better than 90% of the fifth starters. He is actually roughly worse than 50% by analytics and yet making 12-15 times as much. And some that is because he’s had more starts than any of those fifth starters because when they’re usually this bad they get pulled from the rotation. Hence their phantom IL last year mid way through the year.

this is the definition of sunk cost fallacy… to a tee this is what you are and the Phillies are doing

sunk cost fallacy is a behavioral phenomenon where individuals continue investing in a decision or project based on the amount of resources already committed, rather than evaluating the current situation and future prospects. This often leads to further losses, as people feel compelled to justify their past investments instead of cutting their losses and moving on.

This is 100% what this is. If Aaron Nola hadn’t done what he did prior to this contract and they didn’t have $24.6 million invested in him, they have already moved on with how bad he’s been for the part two years. This is identical To Taijuan walker sunk cost that Dave didn’t want to accept and just kept trotting him out there due to sunk cost fallacy and ego

5 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

So you know they’re not gonna stick with Aaron nola all the way through the season even at 24.6 million if he’s not even gonna give you five innings. That’s not even a 5th starter.

Do you even read my posts?

12 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

Do you even read my posts?

Did you read mine? Because sunk cost fallacy definition i gave you is addressing exactly your 3rd and 4th sentences. Just because nobody’s going to trade for him or take on that contract, does not mean you can’t just move on and just let him keep getting more starts with no other solution. Nobody was taking Castellanos or walker and eventually they just moved on. Which for Walker should’ve happened way earlier but sunk cost fallacy to a tee is why he was here year 4.

You can say give him more time, but they’ve given them an entire year worth of the starts and a phantom IL trip last year to get him right. he’s actually getting worse as the season progress and this isn’t a young pitcher learning. his stuff is getting worse over starts outside of that marlins start (marlins been bad since middle of april; even then his stuff wasn’t great in that start)

Also, you saying he’s an OK 5th starter isn’t true. Analytics don’t support he’s ok. Analytics support he’s one of the worst pitchers in baseball with at least 7 starts this year. So that’s considered Ok? There’s some free agents on the market I would bring in and at least work out at this point. I’d also consider piggy backing nola with Rangel as well. At least get 1 time thru or (2-3 innings) Nola then give Rangel (2-3 innings). Or make a trade.

There are solutions to this problem besides well we are stuck with the contract so might as well just let him keep pitching cause he’s an OK 5th starter.

30 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

Do you even read my posts?

21 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Did you read mine? Because sunk cost fallacy definition i gave you is addressing exactly your 3rd and 4th sentences .

First of all, you seem to be agreeing with me that they won't allow Nola to continue on as the 5th starter all year YET you reply as if you disagree with me.  Which is it?

As for sunk cost, if you are talking about from the perspective of the day they signed the new contract then I agree with you.  However, I'm talking about from the perspective of today, May 19th.  There is nothing to be gained financially at this point at all no matter what they decide to do and moving to a new 5th starter means abandoning the Nola project and quite possibly adding more financial cost on a "new and also risky project".  The sunk cost fallacy from this date would be to add even more money to the Nola project OR not cutting financial losses on the Nola project if that were possible (it isn't).

My summary: Ride him another month or so and hope.  If he doesn't pan out then stuff him deep in the pen.  What's your suggestion today on May 19th?  i.e. Don't say "they shouldn't have signed the new contract" as that is obvious and already water under the bridge.

1 minute ago, DrPhilly said:

First of all, you seem to be agreeing with me that they won't allow Nola to continue on as the 5th starter all year YET you reply as if you disagree with me.  Which is it?

As for sunk cost, if you are talking about from the perspective of the day they signed the new contract then I agree with you.  However, I'm talking about from the perspective of today, May 19th.  There is nothing to be gained financially at this point at all no matter what they decide to do and moving to a new 5th starter means abandoning the Nola project and quite possibly adding more financial cost on a "new and also risky project".  The sunk cost fallacy from this date would be to add even more money to the Nola project OR not cutting financial losses on the Nola project if that were possible (it isn't).

My summary: Ride him another month or so and hope.  If he doesn't pan out then stuff him deep in the pen.  What's your suggestion today on May 19th?  i.e. Don't say "they shouldn't have signed the new contract" as that is obvious and already water under the bridge.

I am disagreeing with you on the fact that they should just keep running him out there as though it’s their only option. If he was showing some improvement and progress, then I would be 100% with you. But he’s not. The analytics and the stuff+ shows that he is actually getting worse with each start. Unlike luzardo, whose stuff is very good but implosion inning or the defense has let him down in quite a few of his games, that’s not happening with Nola. He’s walking a ton of guys, he’s giving up a lot of contact, he’s missing spots, his velocity is down and he’s giving up home runs at a higher rate than any other point in his career. So running him out there for another month every fifth day isn’t a great solution either at this point.

The sunk cost fallacy on May 19 forward is there. if his name wasn’t Nola and his background he is probably not be on an MLB roster right now. Like I said with starters with 7+ starts this year, he analytically is not good and in multiple different ways

Secondly, the financials shouldn’t matter at this point because it’s a sunk cost regardless for what he has become. You’re gonna have to pay it whether he’s on the team now or he’s not on the team now. Add on likely have to invest more cause you are competing for a playoff spot and have to replace Nola with something. Whether you wait to do it a month from now or you do it now, you’re gonna have to financially put more into it because of what nola became. But his financials and ramifications of his contract shouldn’t hold the Phillies hostage from making decisions now if there was a move to be made.

There is no great solution, the solution should’ve been in the off-season to have more depth in their starting rotation knowing that Nola could just be what he is. (As well as painter was an unknown with how he looked in triple A and walker’s inconsistency issues). Banking on nola to bounce back and walker being consistent were bad gambles. But then again sunk cost fallacy that they had already tied up 24.6 and $18.5 so didn’t want to spend more to cover themselves I think that’s why their plan was move wood up to AA. See how he does after couple weeks/month then replace nola if nola still stinks.

If you’re asking me what I would do, there are guys in free agency still that you could sign work out and see if Cotham (such as montas and cortes… not great but at least gives you an option to see if they can be a better 5th than Nola and would be relatively cheap) thinks he can work with him. also I would try to gauge the trade market now rather than wait. There are less teams willing to trade now, but there are some teams like an angels. Maybe Boston that would consider it to unload payroll with that front office. I’d look directly at the angles asking about detmers. He is actually better than a normal fifth starter (more of a low end 3 and 4). And he’s cheap contract (multiple years left) and the angels you have worked deals with them. Rumors with the angels willing to deal him in the past. He gives you a short and long term replacement and depth in your rotation. As well as some security future if painter or wood aren’t it (only 26 going on 27).

I probably also be talking to Boston about Sonny Gray. Has a mutual option for 2027 so it’s essentially a 1 year deal and he’s not making an enormous amount. Now that’s gonna cost you more prospects, but if Nola‘s gonna be bad, you’re gonna have to lose prospects anyways and invest more. We are already at the point of likely accepting we have to invest more because of the lousiness of Walker and nola. the Phillies also need a right fielder that can hit as Garcia has reverted back to his Rangers days from last two year form and the odds are they’re probably not gonna be able to trade for that at the deadline. However less likely Boston deals right now cause last wild card is a mess. Angels more likely as further out and been bad for a while now.

Another solution instead of just letting Nola start, use Rangel 1 time thru then Nola 1 time thru. Hope you get 5 innings from them. I’d use Rangel to start as opposed to Nola and let Nola come in relief which may help as batters have to adjust to the new pitcher. Tbh I’d actually put Nola on 15 day IL let Rangel get 3 starts. He probably gives you the same as Nola has so might as well see and give Nola a mental break.

Frankly, there’s no good solution outside of making a trade or hoping a guy in FA market bounces back with cotham because the Phillies don’t have the depth in the minors after dealing it away prospects/poor development

Tbh I think the Phillies want to be in a six man rotation down the stretch of seasons to try and not tax their arms. They just can’t do it cause they don’t have the depth with Nola and Walker being bad.

I actually don’t even hate Nola. Hope he proves me wrong and sticks it to me. I’d like nothing more than to see that. But they given him a year worth of starts, a trip to the IL and working with Cotham but it hasn’t fixed him. I’m just at the point of I already accept the fact that it’s gonna cost us 24.6 million to not pitch here and that we should go look for another solution rather than just hope.

33 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

I am disagreeing with you on the fact that they should just keep running him out there as though it’s their only option. If he was showing some improvement and progress, then I would be 100% with you. But he’s not. The analytics and the stuff+ shows that he is actually getting worse with each start. Unlike luzardo, whose stuff is very good but implosion inning or the defense has let him down in quite a few of his games, that’s not happening with Nola. He’s walking a ton of guys, he’s giving up a lot of contact, he’s missing spots, his velocity is down and he’s giving up home runs at a higher rate than any other point in his career. So running him out there for another month every fifth day isn’t a great solution either at this point.

We're six weeks in and the weather is just heating up. I agree the plug will need to be pulled but I don't agree it is now. You've made some suggestions of others but they are all big risks and add even more cost above budget. For now, my choice would be to give him thru June unless he totally falls apart of course. He's been far better than Walker in any case.

Note: When I say sunk cost I'm speaking from a financial perspective. There is no upside financially to benching him or releasing him, none. Overall costs just go up further. I do agree with you that they shouldn't be afraid to make a move though. All I'm saying is "not yet". The timing is where we disagree. The reduced velocity is my biggest concern but plenty of other pitchers have learned how to deal with that and remain some level of effectiveness for a years at the end of their careers.

1 minute ago, DrPhilly said:

We're six weeks in and the weather is just heating up. I agree the plug will need to be pulled but I don't agree it is now. You've made some suggestions of others but they are all big risks and add even more cost above budget. For now, my choice would be to give him thru June unless he totally falls apart of course. He's been far better than Walker in any case.

Note: When I say sunk cost I'm speaking from a financial perspective. There is no upside financially to benching him or releasing him, none. Overall costs just go up further. I do agree with you that they shouldn't be afraid to make a move though. All I'm saying is "not yet". The timing is where we disagree. The reduced velocity is my biggest concern but plenty of other pitchers have learned how to deal with that and remain some level of effectiveness for a years at the end of their careers.

I don’t view those others as big risk. The free agents I mentioned are gonna be vet minimums so financially not burdensome. That’s why they’re still out there. The difference would be cotham has gotten multiple years with Nola and has not been able to get him back on track. Whereas with these guys, maybe he could work as magic with them who were good a year or two ago. can IL. Nola and if they stink see how Nola looks after the IL stint (likely not good). Low risk potential reward

As for the trade, I think it’s also not big risk. Gray has been good as a no. 3 with occasionally no 2 the last 4 years and he’s had ties to the Phillies. Detmer the risk is kind of minimal because you’re expecting him just to be a 5th starter (also he’s been a reliever before so if he fails can make him a BP arm or in the postseason use him out of the pen). Since 2022 he’s basically been that outside of 2024 and what he cost to pay him and the prospect is not gonna be a lot.

Walker was atrocious. Nola is slightly better at bad. Neither one of them are good options currently. imo if those two weren’t making the $ and have their background they’d both likely not get the chances they have. Nola has gotten 26 starts where’s he’s been like this.

Again, the financial perspective you are using is a sunk cost fallacy. because you don’t wanna move/bench him as financially it doesn’t benefit you and not just moving on accepting it as a loss. So you are still tied into the money he’s making as part of the reason you don’t want to move on cause his last 26 starts has proven he’s not very good for a prolong period of time. In a sunk cost it never financially benefits you when you do it. It’s always loss. Mostly in sports when you accept it as a sunk cost (Castellanos), usually have to invest more to fix the mistake and take a chance. Hence what they did with Castellanos and signing Garcia. unless nola miraculously turns it around, that next investment is coming and taking his money as a loss

I don’t have any insight info on this, but I kind of think he wanted to leave in free agency. I think the only thing that brought him back was at the Phillies massively overpaid (years) what everybody else was gonna pay him. It wouldn’t surprise me if mentally he’s at a stage like Tobias Harris kind of got to at the end of his Sixers tenure. where he’s just over the fan base and over the media.

They don't have any more money, that is why this origination is doomed for a long time, why harry the K's was renamed, why more ads all over the walls, unless middleton sells it is going to be bleak. They are stuck with Nola , he is not going anywhere

6 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

I don’t view those others as big risk. The free agents I mentioned are gonna be vet minimums so financially not burdensome.

I'm talking about risk in performance. There is a clear risk in performance with any of the options you present.

It simply isn't a sunk cost fallacy. I'm not suggesting adding any more resources and I'm not suggesting keeping him going just because he's already been paid. What I am saying is that it costs nothing more to give him another six weeks to work things out AND any other option also incurs a significant performance risk with more cost to boot. If he can't turn it around in six more weeks then bench him or if you want just cut him outright and take the luxury tax hit. Also, no other team is going to take on his contract. The Phillies are stuck with that. That simply is not an example of a sunk cost fallacy.

10 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

I'm talking about risk in performance. There is a clear risk in performance with any of the options you present.

It simply isn't a sunk cost fallacy. I'm not suggesting adding any more resources and I'm not suggesting keeping him going just because he's already been paid. What I am saying is that it costs nothing more to give him another six weeks to work things out AND any other option also incurs a significant performance risk with more cost to boot. If he can't turn it around in six more weeks then bench him or if you want just cut him outright and take the luxury tax hit. Also, no other team is going to take on his contract. The Phillies are stuck with that. That simply is not an example of a sunk cost fallacy.

The risk is minimal with FA signings. If it doesn’t work out then you are in the same spot down veteran minimum for the signings. The other guys via trade track records have been better than nola this year and in gray’s case even last year so that’s the upside along with taking a potential risk. FYI risk performance in any signing or move you make. It’s almost no risk signing those guys in FA and if they suck, you could just release them. Yeah they could suck. Currently Nola does suck. So if Nola gets out on IL and they are as bad as Nola then what did you really lose? Not much as Nola had been the same. you’re not spending all that much money on them and you didn’t invest all that much into them. if you trade for someone like Sonny Gray the odds are he’s gonna be better than Nola because he has been in 3 of the last 4 years. Detmer more risky but he’s always been roughly a 4-5 starter so there’s also upside with him working with cotham at 26. I’m sure they’ve begun looking at other names

Also risk using Nola and he gets worse. And hurts your bullpen long term And hurts your postseason chances. That’s also risk. There’s also the risk that let’s say one of the FA pitchers signs somewhere, and he’s actually decent this year (4/5 starter). So you risked missing that FA for 6 more weeks of nola with the knowledge of what Nola has been for the better part of the 2025 and 2026 season. So that’s also a risk. If we’re gonna use risk dynamic, everything‘s a risk.

This isn’t a 6 week issue. This goes back to the start of 2025. This has been 26 starts over a two year period of time that you’re ignoring. you can keep saying give him another 6 weeks but he had an entire off-season to fix these problems. He had an entire half a season on the IL last year to fix these problems. This started at the beginning of 2025 so no this is not just six weeks is likely fixing this problem. This is 26 starts over the course of two consecutive seasons. So it has been a persistent problem for a prolong period of time

I’m gonna make this simple, if you removed Aaron Nola‘s name and it was just blank, didn’t tell you what he was making and I gave you his last 26 starts over this season and last season, his age and deeper analytics about him declining what would you say? With just that knowledge you would have, you should be questioning why he’s still in the rotation. Yeah been bad. Again why i very much disagree with your he’s OK for a 5th starter. most 5th starters with his consistent issues over 26 starts is not getting more time unless he SP is a prospect they are working with or dumpster fire team that isn’t trying to win or have a multiyear big money investment in a player. His background with the Phillies and $ allows him too and emotionally attachment to him/investment in him is.

Also, you said it’s starting to get hot outside and we give him six more weeks to see what we can do and he’s an OK 5th starter so keep moving forward with him. A person like me who’s reach this as a full sunk cost doesn’t care it’s getting hot and looking at it through just 6 more weeks to see what he can do. flat out are moving on. A person who’s reached full acceptance knows the financial situation is a loss regardless as it’s already been and getting paid, willing to walk away from the investment now and go in another direction even if risk elsewhere as this investment has failed and it’s over to potentially find a better outcome for the future. Breaking off any emotional attachment (in Nola’s past or financial), not making justifications for prolonging it and not resistant to change for the future/potential betterment of multiple parts of the roster. your expectations of the Nola investment have changed but still holding hope that the investment can be somewhat salvageable by being a competent 5th starter and giving him a couple more weeks.

That said the Phillies are gonna take your point of view of giving him six more weeks. I think first domino in Nola being IL’d or removed from the rotation was moving wood to AA. But i think their reasoning for letting nola get 6 more weeks is about $25 mil invest/ attachment to what he was and partially Rangel being the guy who’d have to step in.

1 hour ago, Joe Shades 73 said:

They don't have any more money, that is why this origination is doomed for a long time, why harry the K's was renamed, why more ads all over the walls, unless middleton sells it is going to be bleak. They are stuck with Nola , he is not going anywhere

Oh, I don’t disagree he’s going to be here whether I’m ready to completely severe ties. They are capped at the moment due to multiple bad contracts such as Nola, Walker, Castellanos and so on and their tv deal isn’t set up like the dodgers or in LA. He’s gonna be here because the Phillies are never gonna eat $24.7 million per season over next 4 years and get nothing out of it. Even if he continues down this road like we’ve seen they’ll likely IL him and then try to bring him back up later again. Dave like with Walker won’t admit to the bad contract (until the very last year of the contract), they have way too much invested to just walk away from it and the emotional attachment to Nola’s background with the Phillies.

part of me also thinks the Phillies if they did release him, they would be scared that he goes somewhere else signs for the minimum and becomes good again. They don’t ant that either as it’s a black eye. It is a risk but at the same time there’s a chance he never finds it here again as mentally his beaten down here and over playing here due to the scrutiny whereas somewhere else it’s a fresh start and finds himself again with new coaching and new atmosphere.

$50 bucks says he pitches well next start because i said he was cooked. Lol

You guys talk too much

4 minutes ago, Bwestbrook36 said:

You guys talk too much

Simple solution to Nola problem is just letting Elmo pitch 

7 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Simple solution to Nola problem is just letting Elmo pitch 

See now didn't that take a lot less time and make more sense? Lol

1 hour ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

he risk is minimal with FA signings. If it doesn’t work out then you are in the same spot down veteran minimum for the signings. The other guys via trade track records have been better than nola this year and in gray’s case even last year so that’s the upside along with taking a potential risk. FYI risk performance in any signing or move you make. It’s almost no risk signing those guys in FA and if they suck, you could just release them. Yeah they could suck. Currently Nola does suck. So if Nola gets out on IL and they are as bad as Nola then what did you really lose? Not much as Nola had been the same. you’re not spending all that much money on them and you didn’t invest all that much into them. if you trade for someone like Sonny Gray the odds are he’s gonna be better than Nola because he has been in 3 of the last 4 years. Detmer more risky but he’s always been roughly a 4-5 starter so there’s also upside with him working with cotham at 26. I’m sure they’ve begun looking at other names

Let me know when another team agrees to take on Nola's contract. Not happening. The FA guys are absolutely as much of a performance risk as Nola and very likely a greater risk.

51 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Simple solution to Nola problem is just letting Elmo pitch 

You sold me with this one, lfmao

1 hour ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

This isn’t a 6 week issue. This goes back to the start of 2025. This has been 26 starts over a two year period of time that you’re ignoring. you can keep saying give him another 6 weeks but he had an entire off-season to fix these problems. He had an entire half a season on the IL last year to fix these problems. This started at the beginning of 2025 so no this is not just six weeks is likely fixing this problem. This is 26 starts over the course of two consecutive seasons. So it has been a persistent problem for a prolong period of time

I'm not ignoring it. I agree he hasn't been good (note: he had some decent starts last September to be fair in any case). I just think it is too early this year. Simply put, we disagree on timing. Also, I can't see any possibility of a trade at this point.

4 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

Let me know when another team agrees to take on Nola's contract. Not happening. The FA guys are absolutely as much of a performance risk as Nola and very likely a greater risk.

no one is. But I don’t give a crap. I’ve already accepted the fact I’m gonna have to pay him whether he’s here or not. I don’t have to keep running him out there and him imploding and then my bullpen gets taxed because of it. I can take the steps to try to find another solution other than nola

2 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

no one is. But I don’t give a crap. I’ve already accepted the fact I’m gonna have to pay him whether he’s here or not. I don’t have to keep running him out there and him imploding and then my bullpen gets taxed because of it. I can take the steps to try to find another solution other than nola

I think we know where you stand in regard to Nola by now 🙂

2 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

I'm not ignoring it. I agree he hasn't been good (note: he had some decent starts last September to be fair in any case). I just think it is too early this year. Simply put, we disagree on timing. Also, I can't see any possibility of a trade at this point.

They’re never gonna be able to trade. I have never said they’re gonna be able to trade him (i said last year maybe if he came back and was good again (he wasn’t)). They’re gonna have to outright release him. Kind of like they did with Castellanos. Kind of like they did with Taijuan Walker. That’s how this is gonna end.

Also, he came back from IL and his last 8 starts he had a 5.84 ERA. In September, he had slightly lower at 5.05. And 3 of his 5 starts in September he gave up 4 or more earned runs. His September was 6 Er, 0 ER, 6 ER, 4 ER and 1. And I would argue in September he was at least getting you to the 6 inning. He’s not even doing that anymore. That’s why I said he’s actually getting worse this year and the analytics prove he is actually worse this year than he was last year.

1 minute ago, DrPhilly said:

I think we know where you stand in regard to Nola by now 🙂

Yeah except you keep bringing up show me a team that will trade for him? I’ve yet to say that in this discussion cause that’s never happening. If he’s gone it’s simply washing your hands like they did Castellanos and Walker. Only difference is he has multiple years left