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Campaign 2024

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FWIW, Asians and Latinos in CA moved right this election

https://www.sfchronicle.com/election/article/trump-election-sf-california-19894648.php
 

Quote

 

The Chronicle ran a precinct-level regression analysis to measure which demographics best correlated with the shift toward Trump. We found that the best predictor of whether a precinct swung toward Trump wasn’t income, poverty rates, or the foreign-born share. Rather, ethnicity best predicted vote shifts: the most Asian areas were likeliest to move toward Trump, and the whitest areas the least.

Latino voters in California, predominantly of Mexican and Central American origin, remained more steadfastly in the Democratic camp in 2020. But this cycle, that seems to have changed: preliminary data suggests some of the strongest shifts toward Trump in California occurred not in wealthier, whiter coastal counties, but in more Latino and working-class Central Valley and Inland Empire communities.

 

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/latino-areas-of-san-diego-county-shifted-toward-trump/3671841/

Quote

In Chula Vista, where 53.5% of registered voters are Latino, Trump earned 41.7% of the vote compared to 33.5% four years prior. In National City, which is 61.9% Latino, his support rose from 31% in 2020 to 39.9% this cycle. And in San Diego City Council District 8, where 69.4% of registered voters are Latino, Trump earned 40.2% of the vote as compared to 27.5% in 2020 – a nearly 13-point swing.

If this continues, the Democrats are done.

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9 minutes ago, paco said:

Never, but that sounds hilarious!

Someone should make a .gif of it!

1 hour ago, vikas83 said:

The most serious problem for Democrats remains the insane progressive wing of the party. I was in PA for 5 days right before the election, and Trump was running the "Kamala is for they/them" ad non-stop because it works. As Bill Maher has said -- if your policy sounds like an Onion headline, maybe find a better policy. Democrats won't stand up to their lunatic fringe (trans activists, terrorist supporters, etc.). While the GOP won't do it either, the GOP fringe isn't nearly as repugnant to the average voter -- crying fascism doesn't have the same impact as telling people their daughter is going to get beat up by a boy at her lacrosse game.

If the left wants to win, they need to start calling out the crazy in their party instead of focusing on the crazy in the GOP. 

Apparently the Harris campaign tried to run a response ad to the "They/Them" ad and it didn't poll well with focus groups so they didn't run it. I can't imagine how anything could be worse than not addressing it all, but it must have been  a horrible response. 

1 hour ago, TEW said:

:roll: 

No, and this "we are just TOO SMART” world view is why you keep getting your back blown out by a 70 year old game show host.

Ever see that South Park episode with the San Francisco dip sh**s huffing their own farts? Yeah — that’s you.

The problem isn’t your propaganda, the problem is you.

Most of them are so smart they don't even know what gender they are.

One of the other things to note on this CA discussion -- we are pretty involved in Oakland politics because of an investment we have up there. What you find consistently is that the white voters are the ones that go super progressive, while black/Latino/Asian voters tend to be more moderate. Black and Latino voters roundly rejected the defund the police nonsense and want crime punished -- they led the recall of the DA and Mayor. Asian voters in SF reacted harshly when the school board tried to cut gifted classes (they banned teaching Algebra in 8th grade FFS). 

White progressives vote for terrible policies that they never feel the impacts from. Those who are impacted by them reject those policies.

2 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

The election system has a way of balancing out.

I remember when the GOP was talking about a permanent majority after Reagan. An economic issue here, a war there, things rebalance.

If these trends of minorities moving to the right continues, the GOP will have a window of 8 years or so where they seem invincible, then they will make a mistake, the world will come up with some issue, and things will swing the other way.

Whats most exciting is that the electoral battle lines which have existed for my entire life seem to be getting dislodged. Could we see a new alignment both in voter allegiance and/or party policy?

The GOP has made some massive shifts since the 2000’s. The neocons are persona non grata and they seem to have learned from the Iraq war. Socially they are pretty darn moderate, despite the Christian fundamentalist vote. Gay marriage isn’t a contested issue, Roe is an issue, but they seem content to punt to the states. The war on drugs shifted and focused to the opioid crisis, with no one caring about marijuana, which seems quite rational.

The Dems took the post Bush era as a sign to "go for it” on all fronts, but that seems to have backfired. It doesn’t look like they will moderate in the next few years, so maybe they do need to get their arses kicked one or two more times to force them to regroup and come to the center socially.

The Dems seem to almost be the foreign policy hawks now. Does a moderately hawkish, socially leftist, progressive economic platform have a future?

How does it fair against a more isolationist, socially moderate, protectionist economic platform?

Fascinating times in any case.

5 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

One of the other things to note on this CA discussion -- we are pretty involved in Oakland politics because of an investment we have up there. What you find consistently is that the white voters are the ones that go super progressive, while black/Latino/Asian voters tend to be more moderate. Black and Latino voters roundly rejected the defund the police nonsense and want crime punished -- they led the recall of the DA and Mayor. Asian voters in SF reacted harshly when the school board tried to cut gifted classes (they banned teaching Algebra in 8th grade FFS). 

White progressives vote for terrible policies that they never feel the impacts from. Those who are impacted by them reject those policies.

Yeah, but they are morally right.

16 minutes ago, Gannan said:

Apparently the Harris campaign tried to run a response ad to the "They/Them" ad and it didn't poll well with focus groups so they didn't run it. I can't imagine how anything could be worse than not addressing it all, but it must have been  a horrible response. 

Did you see their other ads?

It was the single worst ad campaign in the history of politics. It was so bad I almost made a thread on it before the election.

It was like if you had the most flamboyant gay man in the Democratic Party meet with the most finger wagging nag of a feminist in the Democratic Party, gave them an unlimited budget, and told them to reach out to straight men.

so, i guess there won't be a bunch of meandering tourists visiting the capitol this jan? 

1 minute ago, Alpha_TATEr said:

so, i guess there won't be a bunch of meandering tourists visiting the capitol this jan? 

where have all the patriots gone?  :nonono:  

So my boy is in 6th grade and here we have a 6th grade center so it's just his grade district-wide.  Well apparently there are two classmates that are transgender therians (formerly girls now identify as boys/cats) that have been granted permission to use the boy's room.  They're not full furries because of the dress code violations.  Personally I would have made them use a litter box, but that's just me.  I can't help but laugh as my son tells me this crap.

54 minutes ago, Procus said:

Alpha posting videos of himself online again

 

Poor fugly dude never got any puss, so he went and bought one of his own and now can't get anyone else desperate enough to play with it. Sad.

10 minutes ago, rambo said:

So my boy is in 6th grade and here we have a 6th grade center so it's just his grade district-wide.  Well apparently there are two classmates that are transgender therians (formerly girls now identify as boys/cats) that have been granted permission to use the boy's room.  They're not full furries because of the dress code violations.  Personally I would have made them use a litter box, but that's just me.  I can't help but laugh as my son tells me this crap.

I'm sorry - cats?

As if the musical wasn't bad enough...

14 minutes ago, rambo said:

So my boy is in 6th grade and here we have a 6th grade center so it's just his grade district-wide.  Well apparently there are two classmates that are transgender therians (formerly girls now identify as boys/cats) that have been granted permission to use the boy's room.  They're not full furries because of the dress code violations.  Personally I would have made them use a litter box, but that's just me.  I can't help but laugh as my son tells me this crap.

my next-door neighbor's granddaughter dresses like a cat.

quite the turnaround for a former jehovah witness family. 

3 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

I'm sorry - cats?

As if the musical wasn't bad enough...

Yeah, apparently this is a somewhat widespread thing.

My cousin’s daughter is in a class where there are multiple children with this issue — 2nd grade I believe. Its like pathological permissiveness from the supposed adults, and because the kids start getting attention for it the idea spreads to other children.

They pulled her from public school and put her in Catholic school. 

2 minutes ago, TEW said:

Yeah, apparently this is a somewhat widespread thing.

My cousin’s daughter is in a class where there are multiple children with this issue — 2nd grade I believe. Its like pathological permissiveness from the supposed adults, and because the kids start getting attention for it the idea spreads to other children.

They pulled her from public school and put her in Catholic school. 

I keep hearing this is a "thing" but have yet to hear about it in our school district (either from my daughter or other parents).

8 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

I'm sorry - cats?

As if the musical wasn't bad enough...

Yes, cats.  Not only cats but transgender cats!  Amazing stuff.  I really have a hard time wrapping my brain around it.  All my boy and I can do is just laugh.

32 minutes ago, TEW said:

The Dems took the post Bush era as a sign to "go for it” on all fronts, but that seems to have backfired. It doesn’t look like they will moderate in the next few years, so maybe they do need to get their arses kicked one or two more times to force them to regroup and come to the center socially.

It is really funny to hear the right-wing harp on the Harris campaign for being too far left. That is what the Trump campaign told you. In reality, Harris was courting moderate Republicans, she did not run on trans-issues (not a single trans-speaker at the DNC)...

In reality, the ultra-left is skewering Harris for courting right-wing votes, for not supporting Palestine. For not taking up the issues they care about. 

1 hour ago, TEW said:

They’ll tell you no and they’ll be right because your premise is false. :roll: 

We weren’t even in a recession, genius. The Democrats used Covid as an opportunity. The COVID recession ended in April of 2020. 

The unwashed masses are LITERALLY smarter and more informed than you, and you keep huffing farts.

https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/federal-spending-was-responsible-2022-spike-inflation-research-shows

Just a quick question…

 

How much stimulus went out before January of 21 and how much went out after it?

Just now, toolg said:

It is really funny to hear the right-wing harp on the Harris campaign for being too far left. That is what the Trump campaign told you. In reality, Harris was courting moderate Republicans, she did not run on trans-issues (not a single trans-speaker at the DNC)...

In reality, the ultra-left is skewering Harris for courting right-wing votes, for not supporting Palestine. For not taking up the issues they care about. 

It doesn’t matter what she said. She’s a Democrat and everyone rightly identifies the Democrat Party with social insanity.

Yes of course every POTUS candidate distances themselves from their party’s vanguard, just like Trump said he wasn’t interested in project 2025, and the left still tried to beat him over the head with it.

12 minutes ago, Alpha_TATEr said:

my next-door neighbor's granddaughter dresses like a cat.

quite the turnaround for a former jehovah witness family. 

 

10 minutes ago, TEW said:

Yeah, apparently this is a somewhat widespread thing.

My cousin’s daughter is in a class where there are multiple children with this issue — 2nd grade I believe. Its like pathological permissiveness from the supposed adults, and because the kids start getting attention for it the idea spreads to other children.

They pulled her from public school and put her in Catholic school. 

 

6 minutes ago, rambo said:

Yes, cats.  Not only cats but transgender cats!  Amazing stuff.  I really have a hard time wrapping my brain around it.  All my boy and I can do is just laugh.

Do parents just no longer exist? Who the hell lets a kid pretend to be a cat all day long? 

I am sooooooooooo happy I didn't have kids.

Just now, TEW said:

It doesn’t matter what she said. She’s a Democrat and everyone rightly identifies the Democrat Party with social insanity.

Yes of course every POTUS candidate distances themselves from their party’s vanguard, just like Trump said he wasn’t interested in project 2025, and the left still tried to beat him over the head with it.

So in other words: Harris owns all the loony left stuff she did not support. But Trump does not own Project 2025. Did I get that right?

1 minute ago, vikas83 said:

 

 

Do parents just no longer exist? Who the hell lets a kid pretend to be a cat all day long? 

I am sooooooooooo happy I didn't have kids.

It’s like you were talking about in San Francisco. The white parents encourage it.

4 minutes ago, toolg said:

It is really funny to hear the right-wing harp on the Harris campaign for being too far left. That is what the Trump campaign told you. In reality, Harris was courting moderate Republicans, she did not run on trans-issues (not a single trans-speaker at the DNC)...

In reality, the ultra-left is skewering Harris for courting right-wing votes, for not supporting Palestine. For not taking up the issues they care about. 

If she had listened to this Limey, she would have lost by an even bigger margin.

John Oliver is funny, but he suffers from the same issue as most super progressives -- he drastically overestimates the number of people who embrace his ideology.

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