Just now, Alphagrand said:

Can you give a list of dangerous punt returners from 2022?

The skycam wire

KERN!!!!

 

53 minutes ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

I was thinking about this last night after I turned off the computer and went to bed. There is a statistical metric involving expected points based on where you are on the field. Where you start the drive. The closer you are to your own goal line when you gain possession, the fewer points you are expected to gain. In fact, inside about your own nine yard line, the expected value is negative, which makes sense because the other team can score on a turnover. Like what happened in the closing seconds of last year's Buffalo-Minnesota game. And obviously the closer to the other team's goal line, your expected points would be higher.

I tried getting the data involved but without a deep dive, the best I could get is a graph showing what the "Expected Points" would be for all of the starting positions on the field. Basically if you get the ball at midfield to start a drive, you're expected to score 2.5 points. If you get the ball at your own forty, it's about 2.4 points. At the twenty, it's about 0.8 points. It works like that. Roughly.

So assuming the other team punts from an average of about their own 35 yard line, which is roughly the league average for punts, and hits it about 45 yards, which is around the league average, the ball will be fielded at the twenty yard line. Assuming you field (and return) four such punts in a game. Is your offense better served by having your returner make one big return to midfield and then do nothing on the other three, or with a guy who gets it to the 28 each and every time? Yes, of course it doesn't work EXACTLY like that in the real world, but isn't that what analytics in sports does? That is the purpose of its existence. It's what teams look at. It's what teams have used to change the way the game is played.

From a purely mathematical perspective, it's pretty close. It looks like a team that gets one to the fifty and doesn't return the others for more than a couple yards (30 yards plus 2 equals 8.0 yards per average) would be expected to score about 4.9 points on their four drives. Or "net" 4.9 points when you consider defensive scores against you. You'd get the 2.5 point advantage for the drive that begins at midfield and about 2.4 (0.8 times three) that get you next to nothing.

On the other hand, if you get eight yards each and every time and start at the 28 yard line, it's about 5.0 points. The 28 yard line is right at about 1.25 points on the graph. So four times 1.25 equals 5.0. So it seems to me that a team is actually better off with a returner who can consistently gain an average return compared to one who breaks big ones but also only "averages" the league average.

It's this last point that I think is tripping up most people. When they imagine a guy who's a big threat, they're assuming his other returns are average too -- and while that is certainly possible, it's not what we're talking about. OF COURSE we want that. Who the F wouldn't? That's maybe DeSean Jackson in his first few seasons. Or Devin Hester when he was tearing up the league. But a guy like that is by definition better than average. And we're not comparing a "better than average" returner to an "average" returner. We're trying to differentiate between "average" returners with different skill sets. It's not the same thing!!

Incidentally, the math pretty much works out the same if we're doing a starting spot of the 30 or the 40. Instead of 5.0 vs 4.9, it's 7.2 vs 7.1 when you start at thirty, and 9.6 vs 9.5 when you start at the forty.

My point? You're probably better off with a consistently average returner than one who is erratic but dangerous. Assuming ball security and decision making (NOT Greg Ward who routinely lets punts hit the ground and then roll for another ten yards) are the same in both cases.

Awesome post.

9 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

Can you give a list of dangerous punt returners from 2022?

Marcus Jones is very, very good.

I would put Turpin, Duvernay and Berrios in the dangerous category.

12 hours ago, schuy7 said:

The Heat just don't go away, man. Everyone starts talking about how Jokic is killing them and how Tatum was killing them in the ECF. But before you know it, the Heat are only down 5. Then they're down just a couple. Then they're up by 5. They just stick around... super resilient, consistent team.

Spoelstra is a great coach. Made a good adjustment putting love into the starting lineup. Allowed butler to matchup on murray. Jokic is gonna do what he does cause he’s a top player in the nba. Trying to gameplan to slow him down is a losing method. But if you make murray inefficient or have to work hard to get his and it forces jokic to become more of a scorer then you have a chance. That’s what spoelstra did.  when jokic scores 40 this postseason they are 0-4. I think Miami prefers he has to score rather than setting everyone else up cause then it makes Denver damn near undefendable. The difference between nuggets this year and last two years where suns swept them in the second round and the warriors beating them 4-1 in the first round has been Murray’s resurgence to what he was in the bubble. He lakers had no answer. Suns and twovles didn’t for most of the series. Spoelstra is gonna try. Still think nuggets win this in six but it’s not gonna be easy like pundits thought  

15 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

Can you give a list of dangerous punt returners from 2022?

1. Deon Sanders

2. Darren Sproles

3. DJax

4. Billie "White Shoes" Johnson

5. Dante Hall

6. Desmond Howard. 

16 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

One reason is that we have two roster spots dedicated to ST returners.  Would be better to have only one roster spot dedicated to that, and more importantly, just one spot dressing on gameday.

Boston Scott was dressing on game day in 2022 regardless 

 

With that said there is no guarantee Scott is on the 2023 roster.

21 minutes ago, RLC said:

Marcus Jones is very, very good.

I would put Turpin, Duvernay and Berrios in the dangerous category.

And how many of them are available?

 

21 minutes ago, RLC said:

Marcus Jones is very, very good.

I would put Turpin, Duvernay and Berrios in the dangerous category.

You're mining pretty deep there.

Marcus Jones and Turpin have each only played one year in the NFL.  Turpin is a much better KR than PR, and Jones had one PR TD that went for 84 yards; other than that he was 28 returns for 278 yards -- 9.9 ypr and not much better than Covey.  

Braxton Berrios doesn't affect any NFL punter, one way or another.

3 minutes ago, mattwill said:

And how many of them are available?

Fair.

1 minute ago, Alphagrand said:

You're mining pretty deep there.

Marcus Jones and Turpin have each only played one year in the NFL.  Turpin is a much better KR than PR, and Jones had one PR TD that went for 84 yards; other than that he was 28 returns for 278 yards -- 9.9 ypr and not much better than Covey.  

Just watch Marcus Jones play. He's clearly dangerous.

11 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

 

 

Does this take them out of running on Hopkins?

55 minutes ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

I was thinking about this last night after I turned off the computer and went to bed. There is a statistical metric involving expected points based on where you are on the field. Where you start the drive. The closer you are to your own goal line when you gain possession, the fewer points you are expected to gain. In fact, inside about your own nine yard line, the expected value is negative, which makes sense because the other team can score on a turnover. Like what happened in the closing seconds of last year's Buffalo-Minnesota game. And obviously the closer to the other team's goal line, your expected points would be higher.

I tried getting the data involved but without a deep dive, the best I could get is a graph showing what the "Expected Points" would be for all of the starting positions on the field. Basically if you get the ball at midfield to start a drive, you're expected to score 2.5 points. If you get the ball at your own forty, it's about 2.4 points. At the twenty, it's about 0.8 points. It works like that. Roughly.

So assuming the other team punts from an average of about their own 35 yard line, which is roughly the league average for punts, and hits it about 45 yards, which is around the league average, the ball will be fielded at the twenty yard line. Assuming you field (and return) four such punts in a game. Is your offense better served by having your returner make one big return to midfield and then do nothing on the other three, or with a guy who gets it to the 28 each and every time? Yes, of course it doesn't work EXACTLY like that in the real world, but isn't that what analytics in sports does? That is the purpose of its existence. It's what teams look at. It's what teams have used to change the way the game is played.

From a purely mathematical perspective, it's pretty close. It looks like a team that gets one to the fifty and doesn't return the others for more than a couple yards (30 yards plus 2 equals 8.0 yards per average) would be expected to score about 4.9 points on their four drives. Or "net" 4.9 points when you consider defensive scores against you. You'd get the 2.5 point advantage for the drive that begins at midfield and about 2.4 (0.8 times three) that get you next to nothing.

On the other hand, if you get eight yards each and every time and start at the 28 yard line, it's about 5.0 points. The 28 yard line is right at about 1.25 points on the graph. So four times 1.25 equals 5.0. So it seems to me that a team is actually better off with a returner who can consistently gain an average return compared to one who breaks big ones but also only "averages" the league average.

It's this last point that I think is tripping up most people. When they imagine a guy who's a big threat, they're assuming his other returns are average too -- and while that is certainly possible, it's not what we're talking about. OF COURSE we want that. Who the F wouldn't? That's maybe DeSean Jackson in his first few seasons. Or Devin Hester when he was tearing up the league. But a guy like that is by definition better than average. And we're not comparing a "better than average" returner to an "average" returner. We're trying to differentiate between "average" returners with different skill sets. It's not the same thing!!

Incidentally, the math pretty much works out the same if we're doing a starting spot of the 30 or the 40. Instead of 5.0 vs 4.9, it's 7.2 vs 7.1 when you start at thirty, and 9.6 vs 9.5 when you start at the forty.

My point? You're probably better off with a consistently average returner than one who is erratic but dangerous. Assuming ball security and decision making (NOT Greg Ward who routinely lets punts hit the ground and then roll for another ten yards) are the same in both cases.

Interesting.  But as a model, Expected points alone is pretty one dimensional.   There are so variables that aren’t factored in. Fair catch percentage, fumbles and most importantly, how that impacts the other team’s expected points when the Eagles don’t make a first down. 

Basically, in a truly predictive model, how poorly or inconsistently Sisposs or Kern were punting would factor into the model as to what works best.  I am willing to bet they look at elements like bobbles and fumbles on the receivers and even evaluate when it is best to fair catch.

 I do wonder if all the analytics that the Eagles do confound Clay a bit and wonder if Pannunzio embraces the analytics as he has been coaching a long time. (As a retired boomer that embraced predictive analytics probably around 20 years ago, I don’t want that to be interpreted as a reflection on his age but rather his level of experience with the methodology as adapted to coaching.) STs are probably influenced and affected as much or more by injuries, promotions and active players than either the offense or defense on a week by week basis. 
 

 

11 minutes ago, garingovt2000 said:

 

Does this take them out of running on Hopkins?

Might have not really been all in to begin with 

 

6 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

My point? You're probably better off with a consistently average returner than one who is erratic but dangerous. Assuming ball security and decision making (NOT Greg Ward who routinely lets punts hit the ground and then roll for another ten yards) are the same in both cases.

The difference you mention with the thought experiment is negligible given all the variables that go into that.  The 'dangerous' returner likely changes the metrics because the 'average' punt to the dangerous returner likely isn't the same as the 'average' punt to the mediocre consistent punter.   Your numbers also doesn't include the fair catches that would likely happen for both on a regular basis and has no impact on the game, other than the distance kicked by the punter.

For elaboration purposes, there are primarily two ways to combat the dangerous returner:  

1 - Directional punting

2 - Hang time.

 

1 - Directional punting requires the punter to be much more concerned with keeping the ball near the sidelines than with the actual distance of the punt, likely resulting in an average punt that would be significantly shorter than the 45 yard average you are using.  Would that make up the difference on the 0.1 expected score discrepancy?  More than likely.   And that's without even considering the potential for the punter to mis-hit a punt along the way and knock it out of bounds even shorter than that.

2 - Increased hang time comes at a cost of distance.  And when you ask your punter to change their approach for a specific returner, again, you run a much greater risk of shanked kicks.  That decreased distance and the chance for a shank, again, negates any discrepancy in the scenario you laid out without considering the reaction of a team to the dangerous returner.

 

And finally, we have the issue of not just the return to mid-field, but the return to the house.  That never was featured into the equation you used.  As I pointed out, Reno vs. Desean... their career averages were almost identical... 9.0 y/r versus 9.4 y/r, with the major outlier being that Reno had 0 TDs and Desean had 4 TDs.  

In the 5 seasons that Reno was the Eagles' primary returner, he had longs each season of: 17, 25, 44, 23 and 32.
Desean also had 5 seasons as the Eagles' primary returner, he had longs each season of: 68, 85, 65, 51, and 32. 

This breakdown also doesn't include the 'end of game' situations where a big play punt return can literally change the complexion of the game.  We saw that with the Brian Westbrook return against the Giants in 2003, which I call Miracle of the Meadowlands part 2.  (But could be part 3 if you count the Clyde Simmons TD on the blocked FG, part 2), and of course, the only 'walk off' punt return in NFL history where Desean took it to the house to complete an epic comeback in 2010.  The Eagles, I have no doubt, lose the game in 2003 without that punt return by Westbrook.  The offense was putrid that day.  And the Giants were punting from the EAGLES side of the field...  Stupidly, they decided to leave the ball in bounds and the rest is history... but a punt through the end zone likely wins that game for the Giants.  Instead they tried to get cute and it back fired... on a 30 yard punt, that BOUNCED before it reached Westbrook.

 

Collinsworth asks the question... why kick it in play?  Coffin corner ends that game... a touchback ends that game.  Does a Brittain Covey make that play?  Most assuredly not.  Give me the HOPE of the big play over the analytics.  Analytics only helps so much.  At the end of the day, the game is won and lost by which team makes the most plays.  Players win games, not math formulas.

1 hour ago, we_gotta_believe said:

You basically just described Barry Sanders, one of the best to ever play the position.

True... and he had to do it that way, because their OL was a hot mess of garbage.  

59 minutes ago, NCiggles said:

1. Deon Sanders

2. Darren Sproles

3. DJax

4. Billie "White Shoes" Johnson

5. Dante Hall

6. Desmond Howard. 

How did Devin Hester not make this list? 

47 minutes ago, mattwill said:

Boston Scott was dressing on game day in 2022 regardless 

 

With that said there is no guarantee Scott is on the 2023 roster.

Are we discussing 2022?  Pretty sure we've moved into 2023.

33 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Might have not really been all in to begin with 

 

Hopkins says we wants to play for a contender; not sure I believe him.  The logical landing spots among contenders (KC, BUF) have very little cap room to play with so, unless he wants a one-year low salary offer to chase a ring, I suspect he'll sign a longer term deal with a bottom team that has money to spend.

CHI, CAR, and IND are all top 4 in available cap space and have young QBs needing to be surrounded by weapons.  If it's money and security he wants I suspect he'll land with one of those teams.  I also heard Jacksonville as an option over the weekend, which might make some sense.

5 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

Hopkins says we wants to play for a contender; not sure I believe him.  The logical landing spots among contenders (KC, BUF) have very little cap room to play with so, unless he wants a one-year low salary offer to chase a ring, I suspect he'll sign a longer term deal with a bottom team that has money to spend.

CHI, CAR, and IND are all top 4 in available cap space and have young QBs needing to be surrounded by weapons.  If it's money and security he wants I suspect he'll land with one of those teams.  I also heard Jacksonville as an option over the weekend, which might make some sense.

Jax has Zay Jones who had 82 catches last year along with Christian Kirk who had 84 catches.  They also have Calvin Ridley coming in.  Anything is possible but that seems unlikely

 

11 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

Hopkins says we wants to play for a contender; not sure I believe him.  The logical landing spots among contenders (KC, BUF) have very little cap room to play with so, unless he wants a one-year low salary offer to chase a ring, I suspect he'll sign a longer term deal with a bottom team that has money to spend.

CHI, CAR, and IND are all top 4 in available cap space and have young QBs needing to be surrounded by weapons.  If it's money and security he wants I suspect he'll land with one of those teams.  I also heard Jacksonville as an option over the weekend, which might make some sense.

KC and Buffalo both have a lot of money they can open up. KC can restructure Thuney, Kelce and Justin Reid to get close to $20M, than have another $24M they could have if they want to mess with Mahomes. More money too if they extended Chris Jones.

Bills a little less, but more than enough. Dawkins, White and Hyde restructures open up $16M and then there's some other guys too that could get them over $20M in space. There was some report that Bills and Chiefs were the only two active teams in his trade market, so I expect one of them to end up signing him.

7 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

8 yards on a punt return means almost nothing on a possession, however, a player that can 'make a play' is extremely valuable.  It forces the opposition punter to directional kick, maybe punt out of bounds on a shank, maybe gets that big return that changes the entire game.

To put names to the two players in your hypothetical... Reno Mahe or DeSean Jackson?  Give me Desean.  DeSean averaged 9.4 y/r but had 4 TDs.  Mahe averaged 9.0 y/r and scored zero TDs.

Ideally, the goal is to have a Brian Mitchell, Devin Hester or even Brian Westbrook.  But if I have to choose between the consistently mediocre or the highlight reel player, who gets nothing on his other chances... give me the highlight reel.  The highlight reel makes the other team sweat.

Understood, but I don’t value sweat as much as you do.  Give me Mahe.

1 hour ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Are we discussing 2022?  Pretty sure we've moved into 2023.

Mostly the discussion has focused on the player rather than the year.  You have been the exception.

2 hours ago, NCiggles said:

1. Deon Sanders

2. Darren Sproles

3. DJax

4. Billie "White Shoes" Johnson

5. Dante Hall

6. Desmond Howard. 

Billie White Shoes Johnson with the crazy leg dance.  Epic. 

What's odd about White Shoes Johnson is that he played in an era when "white shoes" were rare...and kinda weird. I believe Joe Namath wore white shoes and was seen as a kind of a renegade for doing so. The rest of the league wore black shoes. When you look at footage from the time, the black shoes seem out of place. It's funny how times change.

Incidentally the Eagles as a team started wearing black shoes in 1989, perhaps after the death of offensive coordinator Doug Scovil. That was the same time they put a black piece of tape across the Eagles wing on their helmets. You can still sometimes see that in highlights. In case you're wondering WTF that is, that was it.