15 minutes ago, Ace Nova said:

No, they're actually not.

I'll do first season in which they started games, so Tebow has one less game, regardless...

Tebow:

1-2/49%/651 yards/4 TDs/3 INT/77.8 Rating/8.04 Yards per Attempt 

 

Hurts: 

1-3/51%/919 yards/5 TDs/3 INT/77.2 Rating/6.91 Yards per Attempt

Now we know Tebow fell off of a cliff and I don't believe Hurts will, to that extent, but yeah, they're more similar than you seem to realize.

Forgot to add, though in the context of QB it doesn't matter:

Tebow had 199 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs and 1 fumble.

Hurts had 272 rushing yards, also 3 rushing TDs, but 6 fumbles.

2 hours ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

You honestly believe the Jets with a rookie QB and rookie HC are winning a super bowl? I believe the Jets would be lucky to win 6-7 games next year let alone a SB. This isn’t the 2017 eagles. They added talent and still massively devoid of talent with rookie QB and rookie HC 

Maybe I didn't explain this clearly enough...

Obviously I do not believe the Jets are the favorites to win the super bowl. But that's not how to look at this. You have to think in terms of expected value. If you get paid out $750K on 5K, you're making $150 for every dollar at risk. If you think there is a 1% chance that the Jets win the Super Bowl, then this is a good bet even though you don't expect the Jets to actually win. You have a positive expected value at a 1% chance to win. 

Now, that's only the base layer of the bet. Bettors can do a lot of different things to make money off of this without the Jets actually winning the Super Bowl. First, arbitrage. Because of discrepancies in book maker odds, you could take both sides of the bet simultaneously (Jets to win AND Jets not to win) and exploit pricing differences from different betting sites for guaranteed profit. It wouldn't matter if they won or lost. You would make money, guaranteed. The second option is to take the bet because while you don't think the Jets will actually win the Super Bowl, you do think they will outperform expectations. If they start the season 3-1, 6-3, etc, the odds will move and you can again take the other side of the bet and guarantee yourself profit.

In summary, the simple act of taking the bet doesn't tell you anything about the bettor. They might be smart calculated professionals running sophisticated betting models. They might be arbitraging price inefficiencies and gabbing a quick buck. Or it could be some homer. The bet itself tells you nothing. You'd have to look at their strategy and position.

1 minute ago, Swoop said:

I'll do first season in which they started games, so Tebow has one less game, regardless...

Tebow:

1-2/49%/651 yards/4 TDs/3 INT/77.8 Rating/8.04 Yards per Attempt 

 

Hurts: 

1-3/51%/919 yards/5 TDs/3 INT/77.2 Rating/6.91 Yards per Attempt

Now we know Tebow fell off of a cliff and I don't believe Hurts will, to that extent, but yeah, they're more similar than you seem to realize.

So we move Hurts to TE to replace Ertz

5 minutes ago, eaglesflyers#1 said:

So we move Hurts to TE to replace Ertz

Wasn’t there a TD run last season where Hurts ran over somebody?  I’d crap my pants if Ertz managed that 

3 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

Wasn’t there a TD run last season where Hurts ran over somebody?  I’d crap my pants if Ertz managed that 

So would he

2 hours ago, TEW said:

Maybe I didn't explain this clearly enough...

Obviously I do not believe the Jets are the favorites to win the super bowl. But that's not how to look at this. You have to think in terms of expected value. If you get paid out $750K on 5K, you're making $150 for every dollar at risk. If you think there is a 1% chance that the Jets win the Super Bowl, then this is a good bet even though you don't expect the Jets to actually win. You have a positive expected value at a 1% chance to win. 

Now, that's only the base layer of the bet. Bettors can do a lot of different things to make money off of this without the Jets actually winning the Super Bowl. First, arbitrage. Because of discrepancies in book maker odds, you could take both sides of the bet simultaneously (Jets to win AND Jets not to win) and exploit pricing differences from different betting sites for guaranteed profit. It wouldn't matter if they won or lost. You would make money, guaranteed. The second option is to take the bet because while you don't think the Jets will actually win the Super Bowl, you do think they will outperform expectations. If they start the season 3-1, 6-3, etc, the odds will move and you can again take the other side of the bet and guarantee yourself profit.

In summary, the simple act of taking the bet doesn't tell you anything about the bettor. They might be smart calculated professionals running sophisticated betting models. They might be arbitraging price inefficiencies and gabbing a quick buck. Or it could be some homer. The bet itself tells you nothing. You'd have to look at their strategy and position.

I get what you are saying in how you can tip the scales in your favor doing it and play both sides of the fence  

I don’t think there’s a 1% chance the Jets win the super bowl. The odds they win SB 56 is actually 0.66%.  Maybe that person does think they have a 1% chance but with the bet made in February i have a hard time seeing them believe that with a rookie head coach, rookie OC, rookie QB/darnold and a bad roster especially when the sport book was telling you it was actually less than 1%. 

Also IDK but i havent seen a sports book offer bets for the Jets (really any team) not winning the super bowl to take the opposite side of the bet either online or when I’ve gone to Vegas (on the site the bet was made on williamhillUS doesn’t have bets for not winning the super bowl). I’m not saying that bet doesn’t exist i just have yet to see that offered. If there is I’m all for it and show me cause I’d be betting on a bunch of teams i don’t see winning it and trying to make some money even if it were minuscule.  if they do I’m guessing odds would be something super minuscule for the Jets that you’d have to bet something insane to just get the 5k back on your bet for them to win the super bowl. Or hope they exceed expectations (like you said) during the year to increase the not win the super bowl odds somewhat in your favor which seems like a pretty bad risk/gamble considering the Jets roster, new head coach and talent compared to the rest of the division they are in 

what you said makes a ton of sense. I get what you are saying. I find it far more likely it was just a Homer bet. If i remember the story correctly the details on Sirius when this happened back in February was that it was just a Jets fan in New Jersey throwing down 5k cause he was excited about the hiring of saleh and lefleur 

5 minutes ago, Swoop said:

I'll do first season in which they started games, so Tebow has one less game, regardless...

Tebow:

1-2/49%/651 yards/4 TDs/3 INT/77.8 Rating/8.04 Yards per Attempt 

 

Hurts: 

1-3/51%/919 yards/5 TDs/3 INT/77.2 Rating/6.91 Yards per Attempt

Now we know Tebow fell off of a cliff and I don't believe Hurts will, to that extent, but yeah, they're more similar than you seem to realize.

You're taking Tebow's entire rookie year stats and only using Hurts' 4 starts.

Hurts passed for 1061 yards vs Tebow's 651 yards.  And he rushed for another 354.  (Vs Tebow 's 227 Yards)

Total yards:

Hurts: 1415

Tebow: 878

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, Ace Nova said:

You're taking Tebow's entire rookie year stats and only using Hurts' 4 starts.

Hurts passed for 1061 yards vs Tebow's 651 yards.  And he rushed for another 354.  (Vs Tebow 's 227 Yards)

Total yards:

Hurts: 1415

Tebow: 878

 

 

 

No, I'm not. I am using the three games that Tebow started in and the 4 games Hurts started in. 

6 minutes ago, Ace Nova said:

You're taking Tebow's entire rookie year stats and only using Hurts' 4 starts.

Hurts passed for 1061 yards vs Tebow's 651 yards.  And he rushed for another 354.  (Vs Tebow 's 227 Yards)

Total yards:

Hurts: 1415

Tebow: 878

 

 

 

The fact that the comparison needs to be made shows how poor of a prospect he is.

Hurts has the lowest ratio of passing yards to rushing yards of any qb in the last 20 years besides Tebow.

3 minutes ago, Swoop said:

No, I'm not. I am using the three games that Tebow started in and the 4 games Hurts started in. 

The Tebow comparisons are ridiculous.  Hurts had nearly double the amount of yards as Tebow their rookie years.  And Hurts did it with more than half the offensive starters out. 

2 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

The fact that the comparison needs to be made shows how poor of a prospect he is.

Hurts has the lowest ratio of passing yards to rushing yards of any qb in the last 20 years besides Tebow.

The ridiculous comparisons should come to and end soon enough. 

21 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

Wasn’t there a TD run last season where Hurts ran over somebody?  I’d crap my pants if Ertz managed that 

From what I remember there was but it was called back because he stepped out of bounds 

23 minutes ago, Ace Nova said:

The Tebow comparisons are ridiculous.  Hurts had nearly double the amount of yards as Tebow their rookie years.  And Hurts did it with more than half the offensive starters out. 

They aren't. Hurts had more yards because he had another start, played an entire half against GB and appeared with some regularity the entire season. Tim Tebow did nothing the entire year outside of his three starts.

The fact remains, no matter how you want to twist it, that one of the worst QBs to ever start in the NFL had similar numbers as a starter in his rookie year as Hurts did.

Anyone still questioning why people are concerned with Hurts have their head in the sand.

If the Eagles found a way to land ARod that would be insane (not necessarily in a good way). Obv not happening but I just wonder what would happen if they did. Would have to rapidly fix the secondary somehow to even compete while finding cap space for Rodgers.

35 minutes ago, eaglesflyers#1 said:

If the Eagles found a way to land ARod that would be insane (not necessarily in a good way). Obv not happening but I just wonder what would happen if they did. Would have to rapidly fix the secondary somehow to even compete while finding cap space for Rodgers.

The Rodgers whining all boils down to his contract.  He’s $40M against the Packers cap in 2022, but just over $17M in dead cap to walk away from.  GB already has Jordan Love, who will be entering his 3rd season in 2022 so Rodgers has deduced the Packers will make their move at QB after this season — especially when Rodgers doesn’t get it done in the playoffs and blames everyone but himself (again)

He’s been after the Packers brass to renegotiate his contract with an extension and more guaranteed money, and he has the media crying his tears for him that the organization has been neglecting him.  Pure bunk — but it’s working so far 

1 hour ago, schuy7 said:

Reagor has a lot of work ahead of him if he's to reach Agholor status. And I'm not an Agholor fan.

Meh. Reagor showed in college way more than Agholor did. His injury kinda messed up his rookie season, but you could see more explosiveness toward the end of the year. I want to see more of the high point ability he showed in college. I loved the Reagor pick at the time and while I admit his first season was underwhelming as heck, I think he has the talent to be dynamic. It’s all about his attitude. That was my only concern with him coming out of college, and it’s still an issue. If he can mature as a person, I think he can be a great player and complement to Smith. But I don’t blame people for being down on him. 
 

The only thing I take issue with is comparing him to Jefferson, who also wouldn’t have been effective in our crap offense last year

In some ways Reagor - Jefferson is similar to Waddle - Smith.

The more explosive WR v the more reliable and NFL ready WR.

5 hours ago, WentzFan11 said:

Please stop the Hurts and Tebow comparisons

 

2 hours ago, Ace Nova said:

The ridiculous comparisons should come to and end soon enough. 

Yes they ran the ball nearly identical in their Senior years and both are competitive as hell but Hurts can actually throw a football

  Tebow under center looked like a monkey humping a football, he should of been drafted in the 4th round and McDaniels should of drafted nothing but linemen with the rest of the picks, then put Tebow on the practice squad for his rookie season so someone could teach him how to throw and in his 2nd season, designed an option/spread offense similar to Meyers.   That was the only way Tebow was going to be successful in the NFL.

 He would of been drafted in the 4th round this year since finally GM’s are for the most part listening to their scouts when it comes to QB’s.    Competition and who you play for doesn’t matter as much as how you play, arm strength, throwing mechanics, how you handle a blitz and decision making matter.  

 Josh Allen’s stats in college pretty much suck, 55% on completions, that’s way under Tebow and Hurts, but Allen has a cannon with poor throwing, he threw with his arm and only his arm.  Now he’s learned to use everything with much better footwork and his accuracy went with it. Just like with Wentz except the exact opposite, Wentz need to be rolled out almost every play because his pocket throwing was awful.  

 Hurts has a lot more passing talent than Tebow, although that’s not saying much, his motion is a bit long but it’s obviously smoother than Tebow’s.  How he reads NFL defenses, his overall decision making and accuracy are what’s going to decide what kind of career he has in the NFL.  I think Tebow’s mom had dysentery when she was pregnant with him in the Philippines and fell into a coma, which might explain his slight delay in processing info.  
 
Fans always want to just use stats to compare players and that’s fine but remember the Russian Pollock who is now Allen’s back up, by that way of thinking he is probably better than Hurts, and much better than Daniel Jones, which sucks because the Giants are likely to go after a QB next offseason, they know it and it’s the biggest reason they made that draft-day trade. Hopefully the Eagles don’t. 
 

8 minutes ago, The Blackfish said:

 

Fans always want to just use stats to compare players and that’s fine but remember the Russian Pollock who is now Allen’s back up, by that way of thinking he is probably better than Hurts, and much better than Daniel Jones, which sucks because the Giants are likely to go after a QB next offseason, they know it and it’s the biggest reason they made that draft-day trade. Hopefully the Eagles don’t. 
 

I don’t know if the giants believe they are going after a QB this offseason yet but i think this is the make or break year for jones. The eagles trade up could ultimately work in the giants favor because if jones is bad again then they likely are picking in the top 10. There’s also a chance Chicago is picking top 10 and very likely in the top 15. That gives them the ammo to move up to get the QB they want or trade for a veteran like Wilson, rodgers or watson (assuming he is eligible to play). I don’t doubt they also factored possibly needing a QB next year into their equation when making that trade with the bears. 

 

1 minute ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

I don’t know if the giants believe they are going after a QB this offseason yet but i think this is the make or break year for jones. The eagles trade up could ultimately work in the giants favor because if jones is bad again then they likely are picking in the top 10. There’s also a chance Chicago is picking top 10 and very likely in the top 15. That gives them the ammo to move up to get the QB they want or trade for a veteran like Wilson, rodgers or watson (assuming he is eligible to play). I don’t doubt they also factored possibly needing a QB next year into their equation when making that trade with the bears. 

 

Agreed. Almost the worst case scenario for the Eagles now is that Jones isn't the answer because NY will then go after a QB next year. That may be through the draft or it may be via a trade. Either way I think they have a talented roster and a legit QB could really take them forwards. 

1 hour ago, blindside said:

Meh. Reagor showed in college way more than Agholor did. His injury kinda messed up his rookie season, but you could see more explosiveness toward the end of the year. I want to see more of the high point ability he showed in college. I loved the Reagor pick at the time and while I admit his first season was underwhelming as heck, I think he has the talent to be dynamic. It’s all about his attitude. That was my only concern with him coming out of college, and it’s still an issue. If he can mature as a person, I think he can be a great player and complement to Smith. But I don’t blame people for being down on him. 
 

The only thing I take issue with is comparing him to Jefferson, who also wouldn’t have been effective in our crap offense last year

In what way?

4 minutes ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Agreed. Almost the worst case scenario for the Eagles now is that Jones isn't the answer because NY will then go after a QB next year. That may be through the draft or it may be via a trade. Either way I think they have a talented roster and a legit QB could really take them forwards. 

I wouldn’t be shocked if they are in the wilson, watson and rodgers market next year if jones falls flat again. I could see gettleman actually wanting a proven veteran QB rather than going after another unproven rookie QB especially if he is on the hot seat after next year. 

25 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

I wouldn’t be shocked if they are in the wilson, watson and rodgers market next year if jones falls flat again. I could see gettleman actually wanting a proven veteran QB rather than going after another unproven rookie QB especially if he is on the hot seat after next year. 

Absolutely and I guess that's what worries me. Next year's draft class doesn't look great for QBs (though a lot can change in a year) so I could absolutely see them trading for one of those more proven guys. Now of course we have more ammo than them so we could outbid them of course but 1) there is more than one option and 2) we have a lot of holes that need filling on our roster so we need those picks.

9 minutes ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Absolutely and I guess that's what worries me. Next year's draft class doesn't look great for QBs (though a lot can change in a year) so I could absolutely see them trading for one of those more proven guys. Now of course we have more ammo than them so we could outbid them of course but 1) there is more than one option and 2) we have a lot of holes that need filling on our roster so we need those picks.

And that’s why we all have to hope and 🙏 Hurts proves to be the guy this year.

The things we could do with potentially 3 first round picks. A top CB, edge...

1 minute ago, Ray75 said:

And that’s why we all have to hope and 🙏 Hurts proves to be the guy this year.

The things we could do with potentially 3 first round picks. A top CB, edge...

If Hurts proves to be a good QB, if he looks like a QB you can win with (not even necessarily win because of) then that's huge for this team. That means they can use their first round picks next year on really building this roster. Then a little further down the line they can decide whether they continue with Hurts or they go after a top QB. A little like SF did this year.