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Anyone got a bad feeling the Eagles will draft a QB in the first round?


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36 minutes ago, T-1000 said:

Describing an early first round QB prospect in the NFL draft as a ''ham and egger'' leads me to believe that expression doesn't mean what you think it means.

Pretty much, 2019 was a weak QB class, after Murray at 1, Jones went 6th to the Giants, and Haskins only went 15th because of the WFT’s idiotic owner knowing Haskins when he grew up, no one else on their coaching staff wanted him at 15,  Locke went in the 2nd round. 

 2016 after Goff and Wentz go 1-2, Lynch goes to Denver, late in the first at 26. Weak QB class, and so was 2019.

 2022 - Howell, Rattler, Nix,(makes Vick look accurate) and Slovis, more will be added

 2021 Lawrence, Fields, Wilson, Lance, Jones, Trask, Newman.
  
 Fields isn’t Haskins, he’s much closer to RG3 talent wise, accuracy and mobility, but even Fields didn’t run like RG3, who btw, was pretty good in his rookie year until the WFT ruined him, WFT coaches didn’t want him either.

 I’m not a fan of running QB’s, they rely on it too much and they get wrecked eventually, but a mobile that can move around the pocket, absolutely, like a young Carson Wentz, or Aaron Rodgers and if Fields can be coached that way, he’ll have a good NFL career.  Lance is an athlete playing QB with a great arm and upper body mechanics like Vick, but he needs coaching, same as Wilson.  
 Either one of those guys going to a coach like Andy Reid who sits his high draft QB’s (Mahomes and McNabb) for most of their rookie years, turn out to be good QB’s. 

Jamie Newman is the wild card in all of this, played pretty well at Wake Forest in 2019, transferred to GA for 2020, then he sat out. He might be a really good pick in 4th round as a b/u to Hurts, especially if Suds is leaving and they don’t draft a QB with the 6th pick. 


 

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11 hours ago, T-1000 said:

Describing an early first round QB prospect in the NFL draft as a ''ham and egger'' leads me to believe that expression doesn't mean what you think it means.

QBs are always overvalued in drafts. Guys like Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Jamarcus Russel, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Brady Quinn, Josh Rosen all first round picks...all ham and eggers in the context of NFL players. 

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 here's an absurd but actually reasonable idea....since Lurie is (still) enamored with Andy Reid.....and IF they DO plan to take a QB at #6...why not ask Andy which QB HE would take?

let's face it..aside from Kevin Kolb...Andy tends to know QBs..

McNabb,

Mahommes,

AJ Feeley(Well...at least Andy was able to get some good play out of him),

Michael Vick's (brief) ressurection ,

Foles,

Alex Smith(same as Feeley)...

and as the story goes...he was salivating over Russell Wilson....

hey, why not right?

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, flyerdog said:

 here's an absurd but actually reasonable idea....since Lurie is (still) enamored with Andy Reid.....and IF they DO plan to take a QB at #6...why not ask Andy which QB HE would take?

let's face it..aside from Kevin Kolb...Andy tends to know QBs..

McNabb,

Mahommes,

AJ Feeley(Well...at least Andy was able to get some good play out of him),

Michael Vick's (brief) ressurection ,

Foles,

Alex Smith(same as Feeley)...

and as the story goes...he was salivating over Russell Wilson....

hey, why not right?

 

 

 

I seriously would ask him. he KNOWS QB's better than Lowie ever will.

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15 hours ago, The Blackfish said:

 

Jamie Newman is the wild card in all of this, played pretty well at Wake Forest in 2019, transferred to GA for 2020, then he sat out. He might be a really good pick in 4th round as a b/u to Hurts, especially if Suds is leaving and they don’t draft a QB with the 6th pick. 


 

Yeah I would not hate Newman in the 4th (not a long term solution though)

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6 hours ago, Gannan said:

QBs are always overvalued in drafts. Guys like Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Jamarcus Russel, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Brady Quinn, Josh Rosen all first round picks...all ham and eggers in the context of NFL players. 

And Mcnabb

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1 hour ago, Bwestbrook36 said:

And Mcnabb

:fishing:

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4 hours ago, flyerdog said:

 here's an absurd but actually reasonable idea....since Lurie is (still) enamored with Andy Reid.....and IF they DO plan to take a QB at #6...why not ask Andy which QB HE would take?

let's face it..aside from Kevin Kolb...Andy tends to know QBs..

McNabb,

Mahommes,

AJ Feeley(Well...at least Andy was able to get some good play out of him),

Michael Vick's (brief) ressurection ,

Foles,

Alex Smith(same as Feeley)...

and as the story goes...he was salivating over Russell Wilson....

hey, why not right?

 

 

 

Even Kevin Kolb outlasted the 1st round QBs picked ahead of him in 2007: JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn

That says something about Reid still being able to find the best in a less than ideal situation. We missed out on Russell Wilson in 2012 because we were overconfident in him falling to pick 88 (thanks to Howie), but still landed Nick Foles.

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14 hours ago, flyerdog said:

 here's an absurd but actually reasonable idea....since Lurie is (still) enamored with Andy Reid.....and IF they DO plan to take a QB at #6...why not ask Andy which QB HE would take?

let's face it..aside from Kevin Kolb...Andy tends to know QBs..

McNabb,

Mahommes,

AJ Feeley(Well...at least Andy was able to get some good play out of him),

Michael Vick's (brief) ressurection ,

Foles,

Alex Smith(same as Feeley)...

and as the story goes...he was salivating over Russell Wilson....

hey, why not right?

 

 

 

Even Kolb he managed to get a decent trade for,  Kolb might have turned out a decent QB but he just got his bell seriously rung early on in all his shots at starting gigs, for a man prone to concussions that 2012 Cardinal's O Line was like playing Russian Roulette but with only one empty chamber.

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18 hours ago, Talonblood said:

I seriously would ask him. he KNOWS QB's better than Lowie ever will.

especially when you look at the 1999 draft, which was compared to the infamous 1983 draft in terms of talent: Elway, Marino, Tony Eason, Jim Kelly, Ken O'Brien, to name a few

Reid had said repeatedly that McNabb was his guy, not Tim Couch, who was the consensus #1 pick..had the Eagles drafted #1 in 1999, he would have taken McNabb...and then you look at the other names in that draft: 

Tim Couch
Akili Smith
Cade McKown
Dante Culpepper

aside from Culpepper who had a modest career..the rest were bust with a Capital 'B"...which makes it even more impressive...AR somehow KNEW which guy was the best of the bunch....same with Mahomes..everyone thought AR had lost his mind when he drafted him...well.......

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On 3/2/2021 at 10:07 AM, Gannan said:

QBs are always overvalued in drafts. Guys like Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Jamarcus Russel, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Brady Quinn, Josh Rosen all first round picks...all ham and eggers in the context of NFL players. 

Couldn't agree more. 

Fun fact:  The trades of Carson WentzJared Goff and Matthew Stafford means that all 22 first-round quarterbacks drafted from 2009 to 2016 have moved on from their original teams (lifted from The Athletic). 

But it's been almost a year since the Eagles spent a high pick on a quarterback.  Howie must be getting itchy. 

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

 

Fun fact:  The trades of Carson WentzJared Goff and Matthew Stafford means that all 22 first-round quarterbacks drafted from 2009 to 2016 have moved on from their original teams (lifted from The Athletic). 

That’s a crazy stat!  

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40 minutes ago, time2rock said:

That’s a crazy stat!  

Right?  And a cautionary tale about investing  first round picks in quarterbacks.  The data says it almost always ends in failure.

Here's another one:  Sam Bradford (one of those 22 1st round QBs) made $130 million in his NFL career.  Dang.

 

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12 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Right?  And a cautionary tale about investing  first round picks in quarterbacks.  The data says it almost always ends in failure.

Here's another one:  Sam Bradford (one of those 22 1st round QBs) made $130 million in his NFL career.  Dang.

 

he's a free agent....sorry couldn't resist!!!!

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55 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Right?  And a cautionary tale about investing  first round picks in quarterbacks.  The data says it almost always ends in failure.

Here's another one:  Sam Bradford (one of those 22 1st round QBs) made $130 million in his NFL career.  Dang.

 

Other than the QBs that were picked in the 1st rd in recent years (KC, Baltimore, Cleveland, Buffalo, SD, etc.), there are very few examples of QBs picked in the 1st still with their original team (GB, Atlanta, Pittsburgh I believe are the only 3).  I don't think it should prevent a team from taking a QB in the 1st ... but you had better be damn sure he is your man for the foreseeable future before giving him a market contract before his rookie deal is up.  

Having said that, I don't want us to pick a QB early ... day 3 sure, but the day 1, 2 picks should be to add talent elsewhere.  After all, we very well may have a QB in Hurts ... only one way to find out ... play him.    

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22 minutes ago, time2rock said:

Other than the QBs that were picked in the 1st rd in recent years (KC, Baltimore, Cleveland, Buffalo, SD, etc.), there are very few examples of QBs picked in the 1st still with their original team (GB, Atlanta, Pittsburgh I believe are the only 3).  I don't think it should prevent a team from taking a QB in the 1st ... but you had better be damn sure he is your man for the foreseeable future before giving him a market contract before his rookie deal is up.  

Having said that, I don't want us to pick a QB early ... day 3 sure, but the day 1, 2 picks should be to add talent elsewhere.  After all, we very well may have a QB in Hurts ... only one way to find out ... play him.    

The real value for the Eagles is to trade back. Depending on how things break, there could be several quarterbacks still on the board and teams will be looking to move up a few spots.  I just think the odds of finally finding "the guy" are much lower than the odds of finding the next Jake Locker...

And yes. Let's see what Hurts can do with a real offseason program and a real training camp. 

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37 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The real value for the Eagles is to trade back. Depending on how things break, there could be several quarterbacks still on the board and teams will be looking to move up a few spots.  I just think the odds of finally finding "the guy" are much lower than the odds of finding the next Jake Locker...

And yes. Let's see what Hurts can do with a real offseason program and a real training camp. 

The way the QB market keeps skyrocketing (and pretty much teams are hamstrung as a result as it is much more difficult to field a competitive team around them when paying them $35-40M/year), I wouldn't doubt if QB eventually goes the route of RB where teams will find it is best to draft one, play them for the life of their rookie contract, then move on to the next guy.  Perhaps that would settle the market a bit on what these guys are being paid - it is ridiculous IMO.

Anyway, back on topic ... my ideal scenario is that 3 QBs go before pick 6 (whether that involves teams trading up or not) and that the other 2 selections before us are Smith and Sewell.  That leaves both Chase and Pitts available.  And then Carolina offers us a "can't refuse deal" to move up to get their QB - we trade back 2 spots, pick up extra picks, and would still be able to pick one of either of those players (Chase, Pitts) even if one is taken by Detroit (picking 7th).  

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28 minutes ago, time2rock said:

The way the QB market keeps skyrocketing (and pretty much teams are hamstrung as a result as it is much more difficult to field a competitive team around them when paying them $35-40M/year), I wouldn't doubt if QB eventually goes the route of RB where teams will find it is best to draft one, play them for the life of their rookie contract, then move on to the next guy.  Perhaps that would settle the market a bit on what these guys are being paid - it is ridiculous IMO.

Anyway, back on topic ... my ideal scenario is that 3 QBs go before pick 6 (whether that involves teams trading up or not) and that the other 2 selections before us are Smith and Sewell.  That leaves both Chase and Pitts available.  And then Carolina offers us a "can't refuse deal" to move up to get their QB - we trade back 2 spots, pick up extra picks, and would still be able to pick one of either of those players (Chase, Pitts) even if one is taken by Detroit (picking 7th).  

That sounds like the way I see it.
 
1) I like running QBs - like Hurts,  also like Ward Tate and Jackson - for that reason.   Yeah, I think I'd spend the full amount for Tom Brady, but otherwise,  you're stuck,  or, at best,  you're killing your cap for a year to get away from your too expensive QB.   So, yeah,  treat the QB like a running back.   Those running QBs are generally good right away.  Hurts won his first start.   Running QB like a running back.  Have them run a lot.  Running backs come in and out the game, and no one really calls that a running back controversy.  A bunch of running QBs who can run very well,  coming on and off the field,  even able to play other positions.   Philly special was what?  QB Foles catches a pass,  TE Burton throws a pass.  Like that,  but so frequent that it becomes normal.  And the Eagles have those players right now and can get more, and just do that.   People often complain that they think a QB is a one read and run QB,  what's wrong with that.  It seems quite difficult to stand in a pocket,  assess 3, 4 or 5 receiving targets in 2-3 seconds.  Oh, someone can't do that well, get rid of that guy and keep replacing him until you find someone who can, and then pay him $30 Million and then you find out that he can't do that all that well, especially when $30 Million is missing from the rest of the team.  Why don't you just not do that any more?  You don't have to make the QBs job extremely hard in order to win games.   You can find a lot of fast one read and run QBs who have some accuracy with some throws,  enough to put them out there.     I'm not an expert on pass game schemes, but it seems like run and shoot principles might work well for those running QBs playing QB, RB, WR, TE, FB,  whatever the case may be.

2) To me, that seems almost right, and perfectly acceptable.   It seems that maybe the Eagles might want to trade back a little bit more, and maybe might want defense.  At 10-15 maybe the QBs are gone,  Chase and Pitts are gone, but Parsons and Paye are there or one of the CBs.   But, again, that's pretty similar to your suggestion and I'm in agreement with no QB at 6.   It seems like Carolina is a team that should be taking a QB and might want to trade up to get him.  If there are 2 QBs left at 6,  there will be more teams in the mix to trade up to get them.  Maybe the Eagles trade down once 6 to 8 and then down again 8 to 10-15. 

I also like the idea, maybe not for the Eagles, maybe not this year,  of slowly trading down your top pick, turning it into a number of small picks in the future.  It's like if the 6 pick was just a bust.  But you get a future first to go from 6 to 13,  and, generally the way the JJ draft chart works is that top 2 = mid 2 + mid 3,   Mid 2 = bottom 2/top 3 + bottom 3/top 4.  Basically  you can get 2 picks a round.

6 = 13 + 2022 first
13 = 22 + 54
22 = 37 + 69
37 = 55 + 87

etc.   You get a lot of picks that way.  Not saying the Eagles should do it, and maybe not this year, but it helps with cap if you have no vets you can fill your roster with draft picks derived from one pick.   The Eagles sorta helped the Browns do something like this.  They're still in good cap shape because they were so bad, with so few high priced veterans for 2 years,  they were carrying over $50 M in cap for a few years there.  Still carrying over cap,  still over the cap.

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Yup I have been saying this for a few weeks now.  I really am fearful that they will draft a quarterback when they already screwed up and drafted one last year.  They need to go with a playmaker in the first couple of rounds and give Hurts the opportunity to prove he can be a playmaker and franchise quarterback.  Otherwise what was the point of drafting him in the second round last year?

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If they do, I'm good with the kid from BYU. I like accuracy in a QB and he has it. 

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17 hours ago, Random Reglar said:

That sounds like the way I see it.
 
1) I like running QBs - like Hurts,  also like Ward Tate and Jackson - for that reason.   Yeah, I think I'd spend the full amount for Tom Brady, but otherwise,  you're stuck,  or, at best,  you're killing your cap for a year to get away from your too expensive QB.   So, yeah,  treat the QB like a running back.   Those running QBs are generally good right away.  Hurts won his first start.   Running QB like a running back.  Have them run a lot.  Running backs come in and out the game, and no one really calls that a running back controversy.  A bunch of running QBs who can run very well,  coming on and off the field,  even able to play other positions.   Philly special was what?  QB Foles catches a pass,  TE Burton throws a pass.  Like that,  but so frequent that it becomes normal.  And the Eagles have those players right now and can get more, and just do that.   People often complain that they think a QB is a one read and run QB,  what's wrong with that.  It seems quite difficult to stand in a pocket,  assess 3, 4 or 5 receiving targets in 2-3 seconds.  Oh, someone can't do that well, get rid of that guy and keep replacing him until you find someone who can, and then pay him $30 Million and then you find out that he can't do that all that well, especially when $30 Million is missing from the rest of the team.  Why don't you just not do that any more?  You don't have to make the QBs job extremely hard in order to win games.   You can find a lot of fast one read and run QBs who have some accuracy with some throws,  enough to put them out there.     I'm not an expert on pass game schemes, but it seems like run and shoot principles might work well for those running QBs playing QB, RB, WR, TE, FB,  whatever the case may be.

2) To me, that seems almost right, and perfectly acceptable.   It seems that maybe the Eagles might want to trade back a little bit more, and maybe might want defense.  At 10-15 maybe the QBs are gone,  Chase and Pitts are gone, but Parsons and Paye are there or one of the CBs.   But, again, that's pretty similar to your suggestion and I'm in agreement with no QB at 6.   It seems like Carolina is a team that should be taking a QB and might want to trade up to get him.  If there are 2 QBs left at 6,  there will be more teams in the mix to trade up to get them.  Maybe the Eagles trade down once 6 to 8 and then down again 8 to 10-15. 

I also like the idea, maybe not for the Eagles, maybe not this year,  of slowly trading down your top pick, turning it into a number of small picks in the future.  It's like if the 6 pick was just a bust.  But you get a future first to go from 6 to 13,  and, generally the way the JJ draft chart works is that top 2 = mid 2 + mid 3,   Mid 2 = bottom 2/top 3 + bottom 3/top 4.  Basically  you can get 2 picks a round.

6 = 13 + 2022 first
13 = 22 + 54
22 = 37 + 69
37 = 55 + 87

etc.   You get a lot of picks that way.  Not saying the Eagles should do it, and maybe not this year, but it helps with cap if you have no vets you can fill your roster with draft picks derived from one pick.   The Eagles sorta helped the Browns do something like this.  They're still in good cap shape because they were so bad, with so few high priced veterans for 2 years,  they were carrying over $50 M in cap for a few years there.  Still carrying over cap,  still over the cap.

Why would Carolina trade up from 8? The only teams ahead of them are us and Detroit, neither of us are likely to draft a QB.  I could see San Fran  or New England trying to get ahead of Carolina but we'd be the trade for that. That said I'm not at all convinced there are 3 QB's in this draft that are worth top ten picks never mind 4 so it may be if the top 3 are gone that the QB needy teams stand pat or even look to trade back themselves, there are QB's like Jameis, Brissett, Fitzpatrick and Trubisky on the free agent market that would fill a spot until you can either draft your guy next year, draft a project guy later in the draft to sit or in Winston and Trubisky's case try and work a reclamation miracle.

If the 1st 3 QB's are gone, the only way we can trade back is if we trade the chance to draft a blue chip talent for the chance to draft 2 good but not great players. For once I want to see the Eagles to make a first round pick that makes me go wow rather than WTF?  To swing for the fences with a genuine top end talent rather than trade back and draft a guy where all the scouting reports tell me he was expected to go early day 2 or read the words 'raw athletic prospect' because 99 times out of a hundred 'raw athletic prospect' means guy who put up a few highlight reel plays in a mediocre season, but is a combine warrior.

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7 hours ago, Damanick10 said:

Chase, Pitts, or Smith. Don't F this up Howie please!!

more and more..it sounds like Pitts has the potential to be a nightmare for defenses...and we know that Sirianni likes to use TEs a lot...so If they took Pitts at 6 and maybe grab a WR in the second, CB in the 3rd (fairly deep draft at CB)...imo this would be a great start to this draft

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I mean, the recent draft capital expended on QBs with Wentz, Hurts and 1st round pick this year would be simply unbelievable.  I doubt even Howie would do that.  

However, I could absolutely see him taking another QB in the 2nd or 3rd.  

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