EMB Blog: 2022 OTAs thru Pre-Season

[devpool]

3 hours ago, eglz1 said:

I was thinking of Mailata. It's early to crown Dickerson but yeah, Stoutland. I have a lot of hope for DeVonta but he needs better QB play to show what he can do IMO.

Mailata, vaitai, seumalo, Driscoll, herbig. He's made a lot of guys look better than originally anticipated.

I think smith will be fine development wise but he may never get the stats or recognition until there's a QB that can take advantage of his skillset. 

[matchew88]

2 hours ago, TorontoEagle said:

Do you know what an export is?

Didn't look at the name of the poster. Nice of you to try to fit in with the Americans.

[GroundAttack]

35 minutes ago, devpool said:

Mailata, vaitai, seumalo, Driscoll, herbig. He's made a lot of guys look better than originally anticipated.

I think smith will be fine development wise but he may never get the stats or recognition until there's a QB that can take advantage of his skillset. 

Agree. Smith will be fine. He did set the rookie record for receiving yards so take that for what it’s worth. Having AJ here is huge for Smith also. Another guy to pick his brain from. 

[BigEFly]

5 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

The season finale against the Turds was an utter crapfest, but there was one bright spot. And that was Jason Huntley’s performance as a kick returner. I would suggest that he is easily the best option they have there. It’ll be interesting to see if he can actually make the 53 though. I’m not sure he will so they’ll probably try to make do with someone like Kenneth Gainwell.

 Andre Chachere was the only coverage guy that impressed me last year. I’m guess TJ Edwards was okay as a LB/bigger type.

Punt return game still stinks of course. Greg Ward has good enough hands, but his judgment is poor and he has very little ability to make the first man miss. It’s hard to justify Reagor after that playoff game, and I’m not even convinced he’s going to make the team. I’m not sure they really have any good options. And I wouldn’t count on any rookie free agent to do the job.

 

Covey may at least offer some entertainment in PS.  Whoever make it as back up DBs will need to show value on STs. Also a factor for back up LBs and TEs.  Suspect Pascal will play STs too.  Would like to see competition at P. 

[TorontoEagle]

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2022/7/5/23192098/nfl-wide-receiver-bubble-terry-mclaurin-commanders-defenses

I thought this piece was interesting, in relation to Gannon's strategy last year:

As The Ringer’s Ben Solak observed last season, NFL teams have increasingly shied away from blitzing the league’s best quarterbacks. Instead, defenses have opted to send fewer rushers and flood the field with coverage players to create a numbers advantage. Since 2015, the NFL’s blitz rate on third down has dropped from 10.1 percent to 7.0 percent, per Sports Info Solutions. Today’s quarterbacks are just too good to challenge with more aggressive coverages, so defenses have decided to gang up on the receivers instead.

[Aerolithe_Lion]

29 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

Tight End is starting to become the Running back position. 

These "kids" are so bleeping big and so athletic they're becoming a dime a dozen. 

10-12 years ago you had 100 year old Jason Witten, Gates and Vernon Davis leading the league.

Now you have 12-15 Tight Ends that are just monsters, and another 5-8 that are showing huge upside. 

12 years ago Jason Witten was 28, Gates was 30, and Vernon Davis was 26. that’s old to you? 
 

I would argue exactly the opposite. TE is nothing like the RB position, running backs are becoming incredibly devalued due to committees and team success without feature backs, especially with how it’s become a passing league. Conversely, TE stock has never been higher. They’re not a dime a dozen, they’re worth their weight in gold.

[TorontoEagle]

6 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

First, I'm glad you went 12 years, instead of the 10 years that makes them 30,32,28. Which is old when you consider  25.2 and the average NFL retirement age is 27.7

Also, That was the last year Witten had more than 75 catches, last year good year for Gates, essentially was the best in the league at the end of their prime. 

Finally, my comparison to Running Backs was they're a dime a dozen.  When I looked last year, the average "drafted position running back was like the 5th round and I'd bet Tight Ends #1's will be similar 

Which is also why I was out on Kyle Pitts. The difference between Pitts and say Freiermuth isnt as large of a talent gap as you'd get in a lot of other positions. 

 

It makes no sense to sink money/resources into a 2nd TE when you have player of Goedert's caliber on the roster. Without looking it up, who is the 2nd TE behind Kelce? Or Pitts? Or any other top end TE? Using resources on 2 TEs forces you to use both more than you ought to, as we saw with the Ertz/Goedert experiment. We still have too many other needs before worrying about TE2. 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

18 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

First, I'm glad you went 12 years, instead of the 10 years that makes them 30,32,28. Which is old when you consider  25.2 and the average NFL retirement age is 27.7

Also, That was the last year Witten had more than 75 catches, last year good year for Gates, essentially was the best in the league at the end of their prime. 

 

Witten had 77 catches in 2015, what were you looking at to pull that stat out?

[Aerolithe_Lion]

2 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

he led the league in catches 10 years, ago. after that he never had a year over 75. 

But again, you're totally missing the point. ignoring the other 7-10 things I've mentioned and at this point, I'm unsure of what point your trying to argue?

That we should draft a new tight end every year? we should always draft a tight end in the first round? I know theyre an important part of todays game, what wasnt my point. 

My point was tight ends, large, athletic, fast, tight ends are a dime a dozen in todays game. 

Jason Witten has never led the league in catches, and had 77 catches as recently as 2015. Are we talking about 2 different players?

I thought you meant the guy who played for the cowboys
 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

21 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

I never said he led the league in catches.

That is not correct.

24 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

he led the league in catches 10 years, ago.

That is not correct.

24 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

after that he never had a year over 75. 

 

That is not correct. At this point you’re just making crap up to sound smart, hoping no one calls you out on it

1 hour ago, Bacarty2 said:

 

10-12 years ago you had 100 year old Jason Witten, Gates and Vernon Davis leading the league.

That is not correct, all ages for all players in all time frames ranged from 26 to a maximum of 32. "100 year olds”. Also, they weren’t even the best TEs in the NFL 10 years ago (because you seemed to take offense to me picking another timeframe that you yourself noted). Both Antonio Gates and Vernon Davis had fewer yards, catches, and TDs than 26 year old Jimmy Graham, 23 year old Kyle Rudolph, and 23 year old Rob Gronkowski. It did not look a whole lot different than today’s circumstance at the top of the league.

1 hour ago, Bacarty2 said:

Tight End is starting to become the Running back position. 

These "kids" are so bleeping big and so athletic they're becoming a dime a dozen. 

10-12 years ago you had 100 year old Jason Witten, Gates and Vernon Davis leading the league.

Now you have 12-15 Tight Ends that are just monsters, and another 5-8 that are showing huge upside. 

The whole reason the RB position is becoming devalued is because you can have similar success with a committee as you can with a top 5 running back both in team rushing as well as team success. That is very different from the TE position where players like Travis Kelce, like George Kittle, like Darren Waller can have a dramatic impact on your team’s ability to win. However you define a "monster”, the guys you have at the 12th ranking, or at your 15th ranking aren’t even in the ball park with these top TE’s, unlike RB’s where their running mates or Oline almost completely negates the difference.

16 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

Let's try this again.... @Aerolithe_Lion

This isnt your grandpapie's NFL where Talented, pass catching, route running Tight Ends are scarce.

This is 2022 where theres a 3-4 game changing Tight Ends in the draft each year. 

QBs are now bigger and stronger and seemingly have 3-4 potential "game changers” coming out of the draft every year, so are they the new RB too? No, because making a comparison like that while removing all context is stupid as hell and no one would ever do that

[LeanMeanGM]

 

[Alphagrand]

That’s kind of an odd TE discussion to have.  3-4 "game changers” in every draft?  There weren’t any TE drafted in April until #55 overall, and likely none of them will be "game changers”.  Also, the difference in talent from Pitts to Freiermuth is pretty substantial.  Freiermuth caught 60 passes for 497 yards; Pitts caught 68 for 1,026 yards 

[TorontoEagle]

7 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

That’s kind of an odd TE discussion to have.  3-4 "game changers” in every draft?  There weren’t any TE drafted in April until #55 overall, and likely none of them will be "game changers”.  Also, the difference in talent from Pitts to Freiermuth is pretty substantial.  Freiermuth caught 60 passes for 497 yards; Pitts caught 68 for 1,026 yards 

Don't mind Bacarty's hyperbole....there's a nugget of an argument he's trying to make but he flies off the handle too easily. 

[BDawk_ASamuel]

3 hours ago, Bacarty2 said:

Rex Ryan said this about 2-3 years ago and I didnt really see/hear other coaches talk about it until the Chiefs went through that slump in the beginning of the year. 

Two ways to look at it...

1) Having a star QB make 7-9 completions, running 15 plays  per drive leaves more room for error, more room for other players to make mistakes, and harder to do rather then 1-2 BIG plays to score. 

2) As we saw last year, death by a 1000 paper cuts. 

 

That was basically the 2019/2020 Eagles. They had no playmakers at the skill positions so defenses were totally content on making them try to score on 15 play drives instead of giving up a play over the top. The great offenses in this league have the capability to score on 4-5 play drives. All it takes is one play for a loss or one penalty and that kills a drive if you don’t have the firepower to score on anything other than slogging down the field in 15+ plays. 

[eagle45]

3 hours ago, Bacarty2 said:

Rex Ryan said this about 2-3 years ago and I didnt really see/hear other coaches talk about it until the Chiefs went through that slump in the beginning of the year. 

Two ways to look at it...

1) Having a star QB make 7-9 completions, running 15 plays  per drive leaves more room for error, more room for other players to make mistakes, and harder to do rather then 1-2 BIG plays to score. 

2) As we saw last year, death by a 1000 paper cuts. 

 

The big play is a double edged sword.  For the last 2-3 years, our offense has only scored TDs via 15 play drives.  That's not going to fly when you face a deficit or an expiring clock.  As you said, it also increases the opportunities to stall a drive when you require 15 plays and three 3rd down conversions per score.

The quick strike offense erases deficits...but relying on 50 yard strikes to score points is also an issue, as that is a lower percentage play.  You also need to be able to reliably gain smaller chunks and move the sticks.

From a defensive standpoint, the mirror image applies, still that double edged sword.  If you go bend but don't break without blitzing much...you can keep the scoring more respectable by pushing more and more 3rd downs...and eventually the offense should sputter.  But you'll end up with a defense that just can't get you the ball back when you really need it.  Even if your unstoppable offense scores every time they get the ball, you somehow end up losing games 24-21 because the time of possession is so lopsided.

[LeanMeanGM]

I'm not getting the TE to RB comparison. Here's a list of TE's drafted recently that should be in their prime

2019	1	1	8	8	T.J. Hockenson	Lions	Iowa
	2	1	20	20	Noah Fant	Broncos	Iowa
	3	2	18	50	Irv Smith	Vikings	Alabama
	4	2	20	52	Drew Sample	Bengals	Washington
	5	3	5	69	Josh Oliver	Jaguars	San Jose State
	6	3	11	75	Jace Sternberger	Packers	Texas A&M
	7	3	22	86	Kahale Warring	Texans	San Diego State
	8	3	32	96	Dawson Knox	Bills	Mississippi
	9	4	19	121	Trevon Wesco	Jets	West Virginia
	10	4	35	137	Foster Moreau	Raiders	Louisiana State
	11	5	3	141	Zach Gentry	Steelers	Michigan
	12	6	3	176	Kaden Smith	49ers	Stanford
	13	7	10	224	Isaac Nauta	Lions	Georgia
	14	7	14	228	Tommy Sweeney	Bills	Boston College
	15	7	17	231	Alize Mack	Saints	Notre Dame
	16	7	40	254	Caleb Wilson	Cardinals	UCLA
2018	1	1	25	25	Hayden Hurst	Ravens	South Carolina
	2	2	10	42	Mike Gesicki	Dolphins	Penn State
	3	2	17	49	Dallas Goedert	Eagles	South Dakota State
	4	3	22	86	Mark Andrews	Ravens	Oklahoma
	5	3	34	98	Jordan Akins	Texans	Central Florida
	6	4	1	101	Ian Thomas	Panthers	Indiana
	7	4	7	107	Chris Herndon	Jets	Miami (FL)
	8	4	20	120	Will Dissly	Seahawks	Washington
	9	4	23	123	Durham Smythe	Dolphins	Notre Dame
	10	4	37	137	Dalton Schultz	Cowboys	Stanford
	11	5	19	156	Troy Fumagalli	Broncos	Wisconsin
	12	5	20	157	Tyler Conklin	Vikings	Central Michigan
	13	5	28	165	Jaylen Samuels	Steelers	North Carolina State
	14	6	37	211	Jordan Thomas	Texans	Mississippi State
	15	7	32	250	Ryan Izzo	Patriots	Florida State
2017	1	1	19	19	O.J. Howard	Buccaneers	Alabama
	2	1	23	23	Evan Engram	Giants	Mississippi
	3	1	29	29	David Njoku	Browns	Miami (FL)
	4	2	12	44	Gerald Everett	Rams	South Alabama
	5	2	13	45	Adam Shaheen	Bears	Ashland
	6	3	36	100	Jonnu Smith	Titans	Florida International
	7	4	21	127	Michael Roberts	Lions	Toledo
	8	5	1	145	Jake Butt	Broncos	Michigan
	9	5	2	146	George Kittle	49ers	Iowa
	10	5	6	150	Jordan Leggett	Jets	Clemson
	11	5	10	154	Jeremy Sprinkle	Redskins	Arkansas
	12	5	31	174	Eric Saubert	Falcons	Drake
	13	6	17	201	Bucky Hodges	Vikings	Virginia Tech
	14	7	33	251	Mason Schreck	Bengals	Buffalo

 

Best in there are the guys that were taken generally high (Day 1 or Day 2 picks). Hockenson, Gesicki, Goedert, Andrews. Only two guys in Rounds 4 or later are considered good to great, Kittle and Shultz. Other busts or OK guys are sprinkled in but are generally higher picks. Late round 2-3 looks like it's the sweet spot, generally speaking. 

[KDUB1510]

This thread was fun. NFL QB's are ridiculous 

[LeanMeanGM]

Bored so I looked up the projected TE starters across the league. Anyone undrafted was given a 8th round 263 pick grade.

Average round drafted: 3.3

Average pick #: 94.8

Division with Highest Investments: AFC North with average round 1.75 and average pick 48.75

Division with Lowest Investments: AFC South with average round 4.25 and average pick 128.5

Day 2 is the sweet spot. Too many busts IMO in the 1st round vs difference makers, I wouldn't bother with a TE there.

[KDUB1510]

18 minutes ago, 4for4EaglesNest said:

@KDUB1510   You think those were "big time” throws?  

I thought the two throws to Ertz vs KC between 3:05-3:15 and the Quez drop vs DEN could be considered "big time" throws but for the most part no. There are some questionable "big time" throws for all the QB's in the thread. Still a fun thread overall if you like watching QB's make incredible passes. 

[KDUB1510]

Just now, 4for4EaglesNest said:

I wouldn’t put Hurts in that discussion.  

Neither would i but whoever created the thread made clips for every starting QB. 

Hurts clip is longer than Mahomes and Herbert but the quality of throws is night & day. I dont really understand what they consider a "big time" throw but i still thought it was cool to watch. Im starving for some football man.

[LeanMeanGM]

6 minutes ago, KDUB1510 said:

Neither would i but whoever created the thread made clips for every starting QB. 

Hurts clip is longer than Mahomes and Herbert but the quality of throws is night & day. I dont really understand what they consider a "big time" throw but i still thought it was cool to watch. Im starving for some football man.

It's basically a made up stat that's dependent on the graders interpretation of the throw.

[KDUB1510]

7 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

It's basically a made up stat that's dependent on the graders interpretation of the throw.

Well they're way off on some of those interpretations. Hurts clip shouldnt have been longer than a minute. The rookies in the thread made more "big time" worthy throws IMO but it is what it is. Hopefully he lets it rip this year. 

[LeanMeanGM]

2 minutes ago, KDUB1510 said:

Well they're way off on some of those interpretations. Hurts clip shouldnt have been longer than a minute. The rookies in the thread made more "big time" worthy throws IMO but it is what it is. Hopefully he lets it rip this year. 

Yea. Even that first one on the clip is an ok throw considering how he was hit at the release point but I'd rather see the all 22 on that one. WR looked so open that should have been an easy TD. 

[KDUB1510]

12 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

Just for local reference, the Eagles play 7 teams all year who finished over 500.

Sounds like 10-7 at best to me. Alot of fans are assuming since we won 9 games last year, there's no way we win anything less this year but i wonder what our record would've been if you replaced Siemian, Gilbert, Heinicke & Glennon with Wentz, Jones & Winston. We got essentially 4 freebies that i dont think we'll get when we play WAS, NYG & NO this year. In reality we were probably a 7-10 team last year. 

[BigEFly]

If Mailata and Dickerson continue to improve, Seumalo stays healthy and is his old and Johnson and Kelce play at their high level, the thought of the Eagles in 11 personnel is intriguing.  LB on Sanders or Gainwell and a S on Goedert means the high S has to make a tough decision.  Brown or Smith and how many CBs not named Slay can run with Quez.  Lot of single coverage on Smith or Brown and probably often for Quez.  That is going to stress a lot of defenses. Hurts just needs to demonstrate he can use the complete field.