8 hours ago, paco said:

I think as a society we can agree we are over Will Ferrell, right?

I wasn't sure until last night lol but yes

First step is that Sanchez needs to return to form. I'm not talking about the May form but rather just his normal excellent level. From there, it will be about hitting and whatever comes in the trade deadline. The playoffs are far far from certain at this point but at least they are in position to take a solid shot.

19 hours ago, paco said:

I think as a society we can agree we are over Will Ferrell, right?

I've honestly never understood the appeal.

Not ideal we have to start nola for the series opener as well as Rangel for the finale. That said curious to see if marsh continues his all star trend. He’s still hitting RHP extremely well but his numbers against LHP have decreased each month over the last 3 months (albeit july is only half over). May was on fire, June was still very good slugging (not realistic he was going to hit .350 off LHP nor an ops of .941) and OPS. This month has been bad. His overall numbers in July haven’t been great LHP or RHP. His slashes for the month are .179/.273/.256/.529. He’s had 1 extra bases hit and 12 Ks in 39 ABs (31%)

On the season his slashes vs. LHP: .245/.276/.404/.680

In May: .350/.391/.550/.941

In June: .256/.273/.512/.784

In July: .100/.100/.100/.200

I wonder if the game gets postponed due to the wild fires. It’s a mess in Philadelphia right now.

Keller has UCL tear. Out for the year and probably next year as well. Another great signing DD.

2 minutes ago, vsptroops said:

Keller has UCL tear. Out for the year and probably next year as well. Another great signing DD.

No, I would say you can’t blame him for injuries, but the dude stunk before he even got hurt. So it didn’t make a difference if he was injured or not. This is about like the fourth or fifth reliever. We’ve paid a lot of money to that Dave just completely missed on. I feel like strahm was about the only one he got right when he signed them in FA. I’d say Hoffman, but he was signed for dirt cheap and it was because Bryce Harper wanted him

JFC, Turner with another error. Mark my words, he is going to cost the Phillies a playoff game, or worse, a series, with his terrible defense.

So this team can’t hit and their bullpen stinks

Credit to Nola, I actually thought he pitched a good game. They really shouldn’t have brought him back out there for the seventh. If you can get six innings out of him and get one earned run, you should leave it at that. I know the bullpen stinks, but you’re flirting with disaster when he has to go through the lineup a third time.

4 hours ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Credit to Nola, I actually thought he pitched a good game. They really shouldn’t have brought him back out there for the seventh. If you can get six innings out of him and get one earned run, you should leave it at that. I know the bullpen stinks, but you’re flirting with disaster when he has to go through the lineup a third time.

Thats the 3rd decent Nola outing in a row that was wasted. They aren’t making the playoffs missing out on chances like that.

The way this offense goes ice cold for stretches at a time they could easily evaporate that 10 above 500 record in no time. Especially with the Dodgers, Yankees, and Marlins coming up. Marlins are actually decent this year and right on the Phils asses still.

SSDD with this frustrating offense.

7 hours ago, DrPhilly said:

Thats the 3rd decent Nola outing in a row that was wasted. They aren’t making the playoffs missing out on chances like that.

Their schedule coming up is brutal. Might be their toughest stretch of the second half. Dodgers, Yankees and then marlins. They very easily with how the bullpen looks and how the offense has been feast or complete famine past 2 weeks go 2-7 or 3-6.

They got so many problems with their offense right now. Bohm has regress back to what he was early in the season. Brandon marsh is hitting below 170 for this month. If marsh is have a big drop off ala second half Alec Bohm in 2024 you’re pretty much screwed. You’re not making up for Jt, Bohm, rincones, marsh and the streaks of the other guys in the lineup.

I still think their bullpen is the biggest problem. If you take out Wheeler, luzardo and Sanchez their staff ERA is 5.14. Their bullpen has been bottom third this year ranked 21st. it’s been even worse since that brewers series in the middle of June. They also lost Keller who frankly they needed to be good coming back from his injury

Just now, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Their schedule coming up is brutal. Might be their toughest stretch of the second half. Dodgers, Yankees and then marlins. They very easily with how the bullpen looks and how the offense has been feast or complete famine past 2 weeks go 2-7 or 3-6.

They got so many problems with their offense right now. Bohm has regress back to what he was early in the season. Brandon marsh is hitting below 170 for this month. If marsh is have a big drop off ala second half Alec Bohm in 2024 you’re pretty much screwed. You’re not making up for Jt, Bohm, rincones, marsh and the streaks of the other guys in the lineup.

I still think their bullpen is the biggest problem. If you take out Wheeler, luzardo and Sanchez their staff ERA is 5.14. Their bullpen has been bottom third this year ranked 21st. it’s been even worse since that brewers series in the middle of June.

They will rely on Sanchez, Wheeler, and Luzardo to keep them in the hunt and hope the bats return in a few weeks.

Just now, DrPhilly said:

They will rely on Sanchez, Wheeler, and Luzardo to keep them in the hunt and hope the bats return in a few weeks.

The issue with that is it means you basically have to be perfect with those guys. You kind of saw Sanchez isn’t always going to be that. Luzardo also has his blow ups. Add on they can ride them. However getting to Duran if they only go 6 is an issue. It’s probably why Mattingly let Nola go into the 7th when probably should’ve been happy with 6ip and 1 ER. If we had a bullpen that was better tend to think Mattingly is going to the pen

40 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

The issue with that is it means you basically have to be perfect with those guys. You kind of saw Sanchez isn’t always going to be that. Luzardo also has his blow ups. Add on they can ride them. However getting to Duran if they only go 6 is an issue. It’s probably why Mattingly let Nola go into the 7th when probably should’ve been happy with 6ip and 1 ER. If we had a bullpen that was better tend to think Mattingly is going to the pen

If you win 5 of their 6 starts and get 1 of the other 4 you end up with 6 out of 10. You can drop a few more and still play approx .550 ball the rest of the way and that should get them in with 90 wins.

11 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

If you win 5 of their 6 starts and get 1 of the other 4 you end up with 6 out of 10. You can drop a few more and still play approx .550 ball the rest of the way and that should get them in with 90 wins.

I think it is easy to say just winning 5 of 6 starts. That’s not consistently easy over 162 games. It is asking a lot. Essentially you are asking those 3 the deeper it gets into a season with wear and tear of the season to just win their starts at a .833 clip. On the season they are only winning at a .725 clip (37-14) when they start. It’s more realistic winning 4 of their 6 and then finding a way to upgrade from Rangel and hope Nola can keep you in games. I’d add their schedule is also much tougher down the stretch then what it has been for the past month.

we saw with Sanchez over his last 6, eventually guys are going to hit rough patches. It happens every year. Heck wheeler had an up and down 4 game stretch last year. Luzardo this year had a stretch where he was up and down. Heck we’ve seen times where those 3 pitch great and we still lose.

1 minute ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

I think it is easy to say just winning 5 of 6 starts. That’s not consistently easy over 162 games. It is asking a lot. Essentially you are asking those 3 the deeper it gets into a season with wear and tear of the season to just win their starts at a .833 clip. On the season they are only winning at a .725 clip (37-14) when they start. It’s more realistic winning 4 of their 6 and then finding a way to upgrade from Rangel and hope Nola can keep you in games. I’d add their schedule is also much tougher down the stretch then what it has been for the past month.

we saw with Sanchez over his last 6, eventually guys are going to hit rough patches. It happens every year. Heck wheeler had an up and down 4 game stretch last year. Luzardo this year had a stretch where he was up and down. Heck we’ve seen times where those 3 pitch great and we still lose.

Of for sure it isn't easy but that is the current formula

Just now, DrPhilly said:

Of for sure it isn't easy but that is the current formula

The current formula of winning their starts at a .833 clip I don’t think a sustainable for an entire 162 season. We should be thrilled it’s .725 right now.

I look at it this way they play the Dodgers next week. Sanchez and Wheeler are going to start. Wheeler got hit in LA and Sanchez has been struggling. So they could lose both of those starts. And if they do that means the next five starts they have to win every single one. Possible? Yes. Likely? Probably not considering the schedule.

Then again this all goes back to every move Dave made this off-season has not worked out. Keller didn’t work out. Painter didn’t work out. Garcia didn’t work out. Alvarado and picking up his option didn’t work out.

10 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

The current formula of winning their starts at a .833 clip I don’t think a sustainable for an entire 162 season. We should be thrilled it’s .725 right now.

I look at it this way they play the Dodgers next week. Sanchez and Wheeler are going to start. Wheeler got hit in LA and Sanchez has been struggling. So they could lose both of those starts. And if they do that means the next five starts they have to win every single one. Possible? Yes. Likely? Probably not considering the schedule.

Then again this all goes back to every move Dave made this off-season has not worked out. Keller didn’t work out. Painter didn’t work out. Garcia didn’t work out. Alvarado and picking up his option didn’t work out.

Well, I didn't include the additional losses in the numbers that end up at .550. It isn't 5 out of 6. Maybe it is 4.5 or even closer to 4. Let's say 4.2 and then 1.3 out of the other four. I'm not trying to find the exact numbers but rather the base formula that still gets them to about 90 wins and a WC spot.

58 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

Well, I didn't include the additional losses in the numbers that end up at .550. It isn't 5 out of 6. Maybe it is 4.5 or even closer to 4. Let's say 4.2 and then 1.3 out of the other four. I'm not trying to find the exact numbers but rather the base formula that still gets them to about 90 wins and a WC spot.

If they are going to get to 90 they are going to have to likely going to have to really play well in August. Their September is very hard. Start the month in Az. They are usually bad out in Az (over .500). 7 games against Atlanta (4 home and 3 aways) who’s owned us this year (albeit not playing as well lately… also getting some guys back). 3 against Milwaukee and Tampa bay who are leading their divisions. Have 3 vs. Houston, 2 at Nats. Also a 4 game road trip to Mets where they usually don’t play well. And there’s a 9 Game road trip in that month. That September schedule is hard. I think going 12-12 would be a solid month with that schedule. Hope for more but really likely going to be around .500.

Frankly their August isn’t easy either. But that’s really the month they need to gain ground in the WC and getting to 90. It’s not September but they are playing a lot of teams at or above .500 besides angels, Toronto and Baltimore (2). It’s why losing games like last night hurts. Can’t afford to give away games to bad teams like the Mets. IMO this stretch against dodgers, Yankees and marlins is pretty big. I don’t think they can afford to go 2-7 or 3-6. ideally want 4-5 at worse. really need to win next two against the Mets. If they can get through the rest of the month going 7-5. It means only have to go 6 over .500 in August and .500 in September to get to 90.

46 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Alright reverse jinx

Why did they take Lazardo out? 90 pitches but he could have gone one more inning or at least a couple more batters.

28 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

Why did they take Lazardo out? 90 pitches but he could have gone one more inning or at least a couple more batters.

I think because the previous half inning went really long where the Phillies scored two. at 90 pitches after he threw on Tuesday, they probably didn’t want to try to overextend him.