February 21, 20251 yr Quote Baseball America staff on Andrew Painter: ‘There are few pitchers who could be this good’ February 21, 2025 • By Bailey Digh If you aren’t a seasoned scout or veteran prospect analyst, it may be hard to truly fathom how good of a prospect Andrew Painter is. Sure, you can watch clips of him mowing down lineups from 2022. You can research his stats from that year and notice his 1.56 ERA across 103 2/3 minor-league innings. But you still may not realize why the noise that surrounds Painter is so loud. Step in J.J. Cooper, Editor-in-Chief, and Josh Norris, Senior Editor, of Baseball America for some perspective. On Thursday, Cooper and Norris did a deep dive podcast on the Phillies farm system. The two started their talk with Painter. And what they had to say was more than ear-opening. “[Painter’s] probably the best pitcher I’ve seen in my 12 years at Baseball America,” said Norris. "And maybe the third-best I’ve seen in my career behind José Fernández and Gerrit Cole… that’s the kind of arm we’re talking about here.” Before his tragic passing at 24, Fernández quickly became one of baseball’s best starters. He entered 2013 as a highly-ranked prospect and thrived from the moment he stepped on a big-league mound. Fernández made 76 starts in his major-league career, posting a 2.58 ERA with 589 strikeouts in 471 1/3 innings. As for Cole, he was also a highly-touted prospect. He’s turned into a potential future Hall of Famer. Cole won the AL Cy Young in 2023. He’s finished in the top-10 of Cy Young Award voting seven times, finishing inside the top-five six times. In 12 seasons, Cole has a 3.18 ERA in 317 starts. But Painter is coming off major elbow surgery. How can he still be that good? The right-hander returned to game action last fall, pitching a limited number of innings in the Arizona Fall League. Painter was the league’s pitcher of the year. According to Norris, his stuff didn’t change. "What I saw in the (Arizona) Fall League — an ace,” Norris said. "The same thing I saw two years ago in his final start before he went up to Double-A.” Norris later added: "It looked like he had just, like, woke up from a nap for two years and boom the stuff was intact. There’s no surgery involved, nothing had happened, just boom here he is. It’s the same guy I saw two years ago.” What makes Painter so good? Norris says he has the size, throws strikes, has the stuff and is savvy on the mound. "It’s the volume and quality of the strikes that really just stand out,” Norris said. "And the relative ease of delivery from a guy that size.” Norris also mentioned how nasty Painter’s reconfigured slider is, saying the right-hander can throw it when and where he wants. Hitters won’t be able to hit it. Cooper also raved about Painter. "There are very few Andrew Painters in the world,” said Cooper. "There are very few pitchers who could be this good.” Painter’s Phillies debut will come at some point this summer. The Phillies have a plan in place for him. And, according to Cooper, the perfect scenario for the Phillies this year is Painter having enough innings left to contribute in October. "The perfect scenario for the Phillies,” said Cooper, "Come next postseason, you’re looking around and saying, ‘How do we not start this guy?’… This guy can just blow hitters away.” Even though he’s yet to throw a pitch in a big-league uniform, it’s clear big things are expected from Painter. As a soon-to-be 22-year-old, he has the makings of an ace. And maybe the makings of more than that. "If this guy stays healthy,” Norris said. "I think he’s a Hall of Famer.”
March 1, 20251 yr Christopher Sanchez added 3mph to his fastball and was touching 98. If he can maintain his control, he could have a monster year
March 1, 20251 yr Painter plan Stephen Strasburg wasn't happy when the Washington Nationals shut him down in early September 2012 to manage his innings in his first full year following Tommy John surgery. Strasburg was the most talented pitcher on what would be a 98-win team and wasn't available in the postseason when the Nationals lost in the division series. Many second-guessed Washington's decision to shut him down. Innings caps are a reality of the game today. But perhaps it's time to think differently about managing those limited innings from young star pitchers. The Philadelphia Phillies face a similar dilemma this season with prospect Andrew Painter, who's entering his first full year after Tommy John surgery. Painter told theScore he has a cap of about 100 innings. But rather than burn through the frames in the first half of the season, Painter, who's throwing two bullpens a week now, isn't expected to debut until "July-ish" at the MLB level, club president Dave Dombrowski said. That means Philadelphia will have Painter's rare combination of velocity, command, and feel for spin available when the games matter most. "There were three options: start on time and hit the limit, and you're done like Strasburg," Painter said, "or start on time and midway through the year … have (a break). But I feel like once you get going, you just want to keep going. "Or once you are off the leash, you get to go compete." Everyone agreed on Plan C. Painter was likely to start late regardless because he pitched in the Arizona Fall League, where he was dominant and hit 100 mph but averaged 94 to 98 mph with his fastball. Phillies pitching coach Caleb Cotham said Painter will slowly ramp from the seven-day throwing plan he's on now to a six-day and then a typical five-day routine. Painter will be assigned to a minor-league affiliate after time in extended spring training. Cotham said the club will consider Painter's overall workload, not just his frames pitched, which could affect the final range of his innings this year. If the plan works, it could be a new model for how contenders handle innings caps. https://thescore.com/mlb/news/3227803
March 2, 20251 yr I'm going to be nihilistic with the Phillies farm system until proven otherwise. Be it prospects that have carried through to completion as Phillies or been traded for other (better and more successful talent)...the hit rate on even the most intensely hyped prospects has been abysmal. Nola, Bohm, and Stott are the 3 most successful Phillies farm system graduates since the Rollins/Utley/Howard debut's over 20 years ago. And Nola graduated from this farm system 10 years ago himself, while Bohm and Stott are still controversial themselves. I'm not holding my breath on anything from Painter, Crawford, Miller, or anyone else. From Dom Brown to Sixto Sanchez to Spencer Howard to (more recently) Abel and Mcgarry...this franchise only wins because they are willing to spend money (for which I am grateful). Identifying prospects and seeing them through into successful MLB players is not something they do. I'll believe it when I see it on Painter, Crawford, and Miller. I'd probably value any stud veteran deadline upgrade over any one of them.
March 2, 20251 yr 21 minutes ago, iladelphxx said: Gabriel Rincones has been killing it. Hit another HR today Honestly if we weren’t World Series title or bust I’d much rather see Crawford and rincones patrolling CF and RF. I know it’s spring training but marsh and Turner have looked miserable (schwarber too). I’m over Rojas and marsh. Neither are capable of being everyday outfielders. They are platoon guys. Tend to think Crawford is an everyday CF and riccones might be at Rf.
March 3, 20251 yr 6 hours ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said: Honestly if we weren’t World Series title or bust I’d much rather see Crawford and rincones patrolling CF and RF. I know it’s spring training but marsh and Turner have looked miserable (schwarber too). I’m over Rojas and marsh. Neither are capable of being everyday outfielders. They are platoon guys. Tend to think Crawford is an everyday CF and riccones might be at Rf. Marsh is a monster in March/April. Once he settles in to regress to his mean…if Rincones is crushing the ball in Lehigh Valley, then there is no reason to hesitate to make a change. But they might as well let Marsh win them some games early.
March 4, 20251 yr Actually like 1-4 if Bohm hits consistently at .270-280. If regular season I’d have Castellanos 5th and Kepler 6th. Then go realmuto, stott, marsh.
March 5, 20251 yr 8 hours ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said: He's using Boras now so he is definitely going to free agency. It'll be interesting to see what kind of year he has. Obviously the better year he has the better it is for the Phillies. I wonder if the Phillies attach a qualifying offer to him this winter, especially if he has a good year.
March 5, 20251 yr 2 hours ago, vsptroops said: He's using Boras now so he is definitely going to free agency. It'll be interesting to see what kind of year he has. Obviously the better year he has the better it is for the Phillies. I wonder if the Phillies attach a qualifying offer to him this winter, especially if he has a good year. I kind of said this during the off-season, I don’t think painter is pitching until the end of June so Suarez will be a starter til then. Usually he needs a month off during the season cause he gets hurt or tired. I think when that happens, they are going to move Suarez back to the bullpen and he’s going to be their left-handed reliever with Alvarado in the BP. So it’s going to strengthen their bullpen. And in the postseason, you really don’t need Suarez to be the starter if you’re going with Wheeler, Nola, Sanchez and luzardo. So Ranger can be used in a ton of different ways in the postseason.
March 5, 20251 yr So vlad? Meanwhile could’ve given Hoskins a 1 year prove it deal with a year 2 option if this were true
March 5, 20251 yr 3 hours ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said: I kind of said this during the off-season, I don’t think painter is pitching until the end of June so Suarez will be a starter til then. Usually he needs a month off during the season cause he gets hurt or tired. I think when that happens, they are going to move Suarez back to the bullpen and he’s going to be their left-handed reliever with Alvarado in the BP. So it’s going to strengthen their bullpen. And in the postseason, you really don’t need Suarez to be the starter if you’re going with Wheeler, Nola, Sanchez and luzardo. So Ranger can be used in a ton of different ways in the postseason. If Suarez tires out again mid-season, he's gonna cost himself a lot of money. Supposedly he's in better shape this year but apparently his fastball only topped out at 89mph in his last start. Granted it's only spring training but might be something to monitor.
March 5, 20251 yr 7 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said: So vlad? Meanwhile could’ve given Hoskins a 1 year prove it deal with a year 2 option if this were true Yeah could he have not stated this prior to last season? I know Rhys didn't have a great season with the Brewers last year but on the Phillies, he could have provided that RH power bat they desperately needed.
March 5, 20251 yr 2 hours ago, vsptroops said: If Suarez tires out again mid-season, he's gonna cost himself a lot of money. Supposedly he's in better shape this year but apparently his fastball only topped out at 89mph in his last start. Granted it's only spring training but might be something to monitor. Not great either
March 5, 20251 yr 2 hours ago, vsptroops said: Yeah could he have not stated this prior to last season? I know Rhys didn't have a great season with the Brewers last year but on the Phillies, he could have provided that RH power bat they desperately needed. Honestly the most irritating part of this is everyone who argued Harper can’t go back to outfield due to wear and tear. It was a BS argument. If he was gonna significantly breakdown having 1-3 more years in LF/RF then we have much bigger issues coming. IMO the window is now not 5-6 years from now when he’s likely not great and we aren’t competing. The best hitting version of the Phillies offensively was still Harper in LF/RF and Hoskins at 1b on the contract he got from The brewers. Heck could’ve given Hoskins some DH games and out Harper at first and used schwarber in OF like they occasionally have
March 6, 20251 yr 17 hours ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said: Honestly the most irritating part of this is everyone who argued Harper can’t go back to outfield due to wear and tear. It was a BS argument. If he was gonna significantly breakdown having 1-3 more years in LF/RF then we have much bigger issues coming. IMO the window is now not 5-6 years from now when he’s likely not great and we aren’t competing. The best hitting version of the Phillies offensively was still Harper in LF/RF and Hoskins at 1b on the contract he got from The brewers. Heck could’ve given Hoskins some DH games and out Harper at first and used schwarber in OF like they occasionally have phillies organization and sixers organization:
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