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EMB Blog: 2021 Offseason

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10 minutes ago, EaglesRocker97 said:


I like the initial tradeback in theory. This comment was in reference to trading back further. Basically, the further you trade back, the smarter you have to be with the pick. So, from a purely mathematical standpoint, trading back further sounds great, but when you think about the X-factor, it gives you hesitancy.

To me #12 is a really good spot to be in, by the mathematics.  11 picks in front of you — 5 QB, Sewell, Chase, Pitts covers 8 picks.  That leaves only 3 of the following who will be off the board when the Eagles pick:

Waddle, Parsons, Surtain, Horn, Smith — the Eagles would have their choice among at least 2 of these guys left, and there is usually a surprise in the top 10-11 picks people don’t see coming which results in higher-rated guys sliding down the board.  Perhaps only 4 QBs go, and Lance is still sitting there at #12 which would leave Howie with an interesting choice to make.

I’m not sure who else would be viable #12 targets without being a reach.  Some would say Slater.  The Eagles could trade back again, but then the talent pool starts to dwindle a bit IMO.

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13 hours ago, TEW said:

Keynes has absolutely not been proven right by history. He’s been proven wrong by history. The government couldn’t let off the stimulus during the 30’s and WW2 because it didn’t create escape velocity. We still can’t stop the stimulus from 2008 because we haven’t achieved escape velocity.

Stimulus is life support, not a cure. You need some other event to get away from the government spending, and we just haven’t had it.

WWII got the economy to full production, the post-war created conditions for an export boom, but exports have been a minor factor in American economic growth, even in the post-war period. Our economy is primarily driven by domestic consumption. The real problem was the lack of international competition allowed American oligopolies to raise prices and then split that producer surplus with their unionized work force - as capital intensive industries they preferred to buy off labor. This easy living which produced a white worker middle class and sloppy management (see autos, steel) came to an end in the 1970s and 1980s as first the Europeans, then the Japanese, Koreans and finally the Chinese became more competitive.

The problem with the 2008 stimulus is the Republican Congress wouldn't allow the big stimulus that economists and the Obama administration asked for, delaying full recovery by 3-4 years. The Republic Congress preferred to screw the country rather than allow Obama to get credit for turning the economy around (they had no problem raising spending under a Trump administration and running record deficits). Biden has done an end run around McConnell, getting a big enough stimulus to jump start the economy and get income into the hands of those hurt most by the COVID recession (the white collar workers and top 10% have done just fine, thank you) - who are also those most likely to spend that stimulus immediately, accelerating the impact on the economy. Borrowing at the federal level to give money to state and local governments is good economics during a recession b/c the requirement of balanced budgets forces these governments to cut spending just when the opposite is what is needed. Between the stimulus and the vaccinations, the economy should be booming the second half of the year into 2022 - but it'll take a couple years of high growth to get employment back to pre-COVID levels.

If the Democrats win big in 2022, they should raise taxes in 2023 to reduce the deficit (repealing the Trump income tax cuts and double the staff of the IRS so that the top 10% are audited on a regular basis would bring in trillions). This would keep the economy from overheating and slow the growth of the national debt.

I’m just tired of Howie trying to get cute and outsmart everybody with his mid round picks. It seems like once we get to round three, it’s never a pick thats just normal. It’s always some guy no ones ever heard of that fits some sort of athletic profile that they try to get to switch positions or get cute with. I’m tired of athletic profiles. Meaningless measurables. Can we draft some football players, please? Some guys who had some success in college who we’d like to stay at their natural position. Someone everyone has heard of and just seems like a decent pick. I don’t believe in judging picks as soon as they happen, but it seems like more often than not recently, these left field picks piss off the fanbase, and just end up sucking. So the fans seem justified. If Howie hit on even a couple, That’d be fine. But it’s getting offensive. Stop getting cute. Stop trying to outsmart everybody. Just pick somebody people agree is a good pick NOW and if they turn out to suck, fine. At least the pick made sense. But stop trying to sell me on these "questionable value picks” that keep sucking. Pick somebody that, even if they suck, it didn’t seem like a bad pick at the time. But if you keep trying to sell me on these picks that no one thinks are good, and they end up correct, I’m gonna lose my mind. 

8 hours ago, Saltpeter said:

Driscoll and Herbig were absolutely fine. Driscoll likely would've slid inside if not for Lane's injury. Don't know why you're expecting an OL that's 10 starters deep.

No, they were not. Herbig is ponderous and Driscoll was not strong enough.

12 hours ago, ToastJenkins said:

I said early on that 12 was as far as i was willing to go. I dont want to move down further

I have to agree. 12 is a really sweet spot. No need to get cute and add risk just to pop out another mid round lottery ticket. 
 

The trade back was a great move. Let’s hope Howie doesn’t undo the good of the move. There should be at least 3-5 really good picks that you make with no hesitation sitting there

1 minute ago, purplefiggy said:

I have to agree. 12 is a really sweet spot. No need to get cute and add risk just to pop out another mid round lottery ticket. 
 

The trade back was a great move. Let’s hope Howie doesn’t undo the good of the move. There should be at least 3-5 really good picks that you make with no hesitation sitting there

I just don’t want him to have to pick between any two players at the same position. If we choose CB, I hope one of the top guys is gone. If it’s WR, I hope two are gone. Because whoever Howie passes on will instantly become a star

3 minutes ago, purplefiggy said:

I have to agree. 12 is a really sweet spot. No need to get cute and add risk just to pop out another mid round lottery ticket. 
 

The trade back was a great move. Let’s hope Howie doesn’t undo the good of the move. There should be at least 3-5 really good picks that you make with no hesitation sitting there

Who is your target at 12 ? And how much better are they , than someone you can get a few picks later at same position 

If Howie trades down into the 20’s for a 4th and a 7th and takes some edge rusher with a mid second round grade, I don’t know if I can emotionally afford to remain invested in this team. I’m so sick of talking myself into these bad decisions and justifying it. 

2 minutes ago, Original Sin said:

Who is your target at 12 ? And how much better are they , than someone you can get a few picks later at same position 

How do you know? How do you know that someone you like isn’t gonna get snatched up? Just so you can gain a pick with a 30% success rate? Or less. Just pick your guy and quit trying to maximize value. An extra 4th round pick isn’t worth the Marcus Smith or Brandin Cooks scenario all over again. 

49 minutes ago, 4for4EaglesNest said:

JFC!!!!!  Are you dense?   Don’t answer that.   
 

TAKE IT TO CVON!!!!   

I’m trying not to jump in and tried to redirect, but the Afan insufferability index is getting rough again.  

4 minutes ago, blindside said:

How do you know? How do you know that someone you like isn’t gonna get snatched up? Just so you can gain a pick with a 30% success rate? Or less. Just pick your guy and quit trying to maximize value. An extra 4th round pick isn’t worth the Marcus Smith or Brandin Cooks scenario all over again. 

That’s their job to know , hence draft day trades up or down every year .

they have so many needs , that they can go best available player at any position, it’s not like if they miss on  one guy by trading back ,that their draft is over 

10 minutes ago, Original Sin said:

Who is your target at 12 ? And how much better are they , than someone you can get a few picks later at same position 

My personal positional preference is CB, followed by WR. But really I want the CB and assuming one of those guys is still sitting there, I don’t want to risk losing them. 

I guess I’d have to ask what’s the expected return to drop 2-3 spots?  Because I absolutely wouldn’t go past there. And is that worth likely losing my CB?  I say no. 


Had we not already played that "trade down game” and won, I might be more willing. 
 

now, if howie isn’t grabbing one of those 5 we talk about sitting there, then by all means, trade back again...but I hope he sees the obvious value at 12 and that’s why he was willing to move there in the first place. 

You would hope any team worth a damn , would have a handful of guys they like at a certain pick , let’s say it’s 6 and 4 are left , you trade back 3 spots , a team with many needs should have plenty of players they like at their slot 

1 minute ago, Original Sin said:

You would hope any team worth a damn , would have a handful of guys they like at a certain pick , let’s say it’s 6 and 4 are left , you trade back 3 spots , a team with many needs should have plenty of players they like at their slot 

Well, I do assume they have a list of 6 or so they would like at 12, but I also assume at least a few from that list will already be gone, leaving them with about another 3-4 left before the next drop off. 

51 minutes ago, blindside said:

I’m just tired of Howie trying to get cute and outsmart everybody with his mid round picks. It seems like once we get to round three, it’s never a pick thats just normal. It’s always some guy no ones ever heard of that fits some sort of athletic profile that they try to get to switch positions or get cute with. I’m tired of athletic profiles. Meaningless measurables. Can we draft some football players, please? Some guys who had some success in college who we’d like to stay at their natural position. Someone everyone has heard of and just seems like a decent pick. I don’t believe in judging picks as soon as they happen, but it seems like more often than not recently, these left field picks piss off the fanbase, and just end up sucking. So the fans seem justified. If Howie hit on even a couple, That’d be fine. But it’s getting offensive. Stop getting cute. Stop trying to outsmart everybody. Just pick somebody people agree is a good pick NOW and if they turn out to suck, fine. At least the pick made sense. But stop trying to sell me on these "questionable value picks” that keep sucking. Pick somebody that, even if they suck, it didn’t seem like a bad pick at the time. But if you keep trying to sell me on these picks that no one thinks are good, and they end up correct, I’m gonna lose my mind. 

This x100.  The 2nd-4th rounds are where you need to be finding your solid core starters and it seems Howie would rather take giant risks or try to outsmart everyone continually wasting the early middle round picks.

With the amount of talent in the NCAA, there are 1st round values in the 2nd, 2nd in the 3rd and so on....Howie seems to pick guys who were slated to go in round 5 in round 3.  It makes no sense and of course the owner doesn't hold him accountable at all.

58 minutes ago, justrelax said:

No, they were not. Herbig is ponderous and Driscoll was not strong enough.

IMO, Driscoll showed more than Dillard did during his rookie year.  Driscoll battled through some serious injuries too.  If we are putting our money on Dillard to get stronger, there is no reason that we can't assume Driscoll won't get stronger as well.

If Herbig can shed his baby fat he could be a very solid starting guard in the NFL.

I think Driscoll and Herbig, while they struggled at times are going to be core pieces to the line for years to come.  They are part of the reason I'm not as worried about the O-Line.

19 minutes ago, Original Sin said:

That’s their job to know , hence draft day trades up or down every year .

they have so many needs , that they can go best available player at any position, it’s not like if they miss on  one guy by trading back ,that their draft is over 

Yes, it's their job to know.   Do we have faith that Howie knows this though?

We apparently traded down to 12 because Howie knows that both Chase and Pitts are gone by 6. 

What happens if both are sitting there at 6?  That would tell me that Howie knows nothing.  Would anything happen to Howie?  Nope.

I don’t think both Pitts and chase are gone by 6 , so hopefully that wasn’t Howie’s thinking

i think he was thinking , many holes to fill , odds are better throwing more darts than less .

3 minutes ago, Original Sin said:

I don’t think both Pitts and chase are gone by 6 , so hopefully that wasn’t Howie’s thinking

i think he was thinking , many holes to fill , odds are better throwing more darts than less .

At the very least, it isn’t so likely that you trade down 6 spots weeks before the draft. 
 

7 minutes ago, Original Sin said:

I don’t think both Pitts and chase are gone by 6 , so hopefully that wasn’t Howie’s thinking

I’m sure whoever Howie takes at 12 is the guy they wanted @6😎👌.

Just now, Waiting4Someday said:

I’m sure whomever Howie takes at 12 is the guy they wanted 6😎👌.

No, remember, the good players they like are drafted by teams ahead of them but hey, they still liked these guys.  They just can't help that teams take them.  Unless you trade down and the guy you want is then drafted between 6 and 12.

8 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

No, remember, the good players they like are drafted by teams ahead of them but hey, they still liked these guys.  They just can't help that teams take them.  Unless you trade down and the guy you want is then drafted between 6 and 12.

Yeah, it’s going to be tough to push the usual narrative next year with anyone paying attention - but they might deflect any criticism with the MIA pick (i.e, pump the brakes folks, the trade isn’t done yet).

On 4/9/2021 at 1:24 PM, RememberTheKoy said:

 

We were winning the trade the war with them, something no one thought would be possible of a country stood up to China.  No surprise that soon after the first part of the trade agreement was signed that a covid virus that they had been working with in a Wuhan lab had suddenly started to spread in Wuhan and then the rest of the world and now we have a president in office who is beholden to China.  

It's a shame we didn't get a second term so that we could continue to stand up to the CCP. 

"Winning"

I'm assuming the referee in this war was Trump or Fox News.  

Seriously, how exactly would you, RememberTheKoy, know if the US really were winning a trade war?  I am dead serious here.

39 minutes ago, Original Sin said:

I don’t think both Pitts and chase are gone by 6 , so hopefully that wasn’t Howie’s thinking

i think he was thinking , many holes to fill , odds are better throwing more darts than less .

I’m not going to die on a hill saying that neither Pitts nor Chase can be truly great, but I don’t like their chances enough at #6.  
 

Id probably rank them ahead of all other options and ahead of whatever we’ll get at 12, but I’d rather take the extra pick.

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