EMB Blog: 2021 Offseason

[bpac55]

1 minute ago, Iggles_Phan said:

3-4 OLB possibly as well.

3-4 OLB all day long.  The Ravens and Steelers are in prime range to take him at the end of the 1st.

[austinfan]

8 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

Nightmares of Levon Kirkland chasing the Buccaneers are replaying in my head.  270 sounds massive for a linebacker but honestly, look at his frame and it looks like he could carry 11 extra pounds easily.  

Kirkland was 6-1 268.  Collins is 6-4 and looked really lean for 255 at his Pro Day.  Some of these guys just have incredible lean muscle mass. 

Kirkland was at the end of his career when he came here, he carried that weight much better as a younger man.

[Original Sin]

Collins is highest graded coverage backer in draft 

[bpac55]

1 minute ago, austinfan said:

Kirkland was at the end of his career when he came here, he carried that weight much better as a younger man.

I know, just seeing that weight reminds me of him.  Kirkland was also 6-1.  Collins is 6-4  big difference in body composition as I noted in my post.

[RememberTheKoy]

21 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

As good as the SEC is and I love watching SEC football, the NFL is a different beast.  With Smith, there's no room to grow on his frame.  He's 166 and that's that.  He doesn't have the elite speed of DJack, who was 2" shorter and 10 lbs heavier so even he is more compact and built than Smith.

Smith seems like a good guy, I've got nothing against him.  He went out and put up an incredible 2020 season and a very good Alabama career.  That size just scares me away.  Todd Pinkston had 15 pounds on him and he was a stick!  Now the argument there is Pinkston never got hurt but he also only played 5 years in the NFL.  Also not comparing their skillset, just the weight.

There isn't another player in the NFL that you can compare his build to.  He's just a rail.

The Saints had a guy, TommyLee Lewis, who was a return specialist.  He was 5-7, 168.  That 5" difference again makes him much more compact than a guy 6' 166

Same with Taylor Gabriel who just retired.  He was 5-8 167. Again a significant height/compact body difference.   

Marquise Brown is 5-8 181.  4" and 15 pound difference and he blazed a 4.32 40.

I hope he succeeds.  I just don't like that size one bit.

 

Todd Pinkston also had 3 inches on him.  Outside of the Super Bowl I don't ever recall injuries being an issue for Pinkston with his frame and he played during a far more physical era. 

I think you're putting too much value in size and weight for a position that is among the least physical in the game.  He is a superior route runner with excellent body control.  He knows how to create space with his footwork and disguising his routes. 

I feel pretty strongly that he will end up being the best War from this draft class when it is all said and done. 

[Alphagrand]

7 hours ago, austinfan said:

You mean Dillard?

Nope.  They traded up for Dillard and gave up additional picks.  I haven’t formed an opinion of that pick yet, unlike most other posters.  I want to see him win a starting job in training camp and assess him as a starting OT.

If he can’t win the starting job for this season then obviously he would be a bust for where he was drafted 

[RememberTheKoy]

9 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

We'll disagree there.  I'm avoiding him.

I do think the arguments from others that you mentioned are silly.  Complaining that a guy wins because he's a great route runner is like saying an offensive lineman wins his trench battles because he has great technique.  

I think you need more than great route running to win in the NFL  I don't see this guy ever hitting 170.  Again, I hope he's successful (as long as NYG don't grab him).  I just don't want the Eagles anywhere near him. 

I posted all of the tier 2/3 guys a few posts up who I think will be just as good in the NFL as Smith.   I'd much rather have Rashod Bateman, Elijah Moore or Terrace Marshall in the 2nd.

 

 

He has more than great route running.  He has great hands, great ball tracking, great body control that makes him dangerous after the catch and difficult for defenders to get good angles on him. 

[austinfan]

7 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

Nope.  They traded up for Dillard and gave up additional picks.  I haven’t formed an opinion of that pick yet, unlike most other posters.  I want to see him win a starting job in training camp and assess him as a starting OT.

If he can’t win the starting job for this season then obviously he would be a bust for where he was drafted 

Not necessarily. If Lane is healthy, not beating out Lane and Mailata may simply mean we have the best trio of OTs in the NFL by a wide margin.

[EricAllenPick6]

57 minutes ago, RememberTheKoy said:

I don't understand this thought process. His size was never an issue in college when he was playing in the bear conference going into the college playoffs playing the best teams going up against future NFL talent. Never was his size an issue.  High volume receiver and it was never an issue or even a hint of an issue. 

Why is it suddenly going to be an issue in the NFL? 

It may not be, but would you spend a top-10 or even top-20 pick on a guy that small?  Lots of NFL WRs have him by 30+ pounds, and that's not fat, that's muscle.  They are every bit as fast as he is, but stronger. 

 

[mattmcginley7]

22 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

We'll disagree there.  I'm avoiding him.

I do think the arguments from others that you mentioned are silly.  Complaining that a guy wins because he's a great route runner is like saying an offensive lineman wins his trench battles because he has great technique.  

I think you need more than great route running to win in the NFL  I don't see this guy ever hitting 170.  Again, I hope he's successful (as long as NYG don't grab him).  I just don't want the Eagles anywhere near him. 

I posted all of the tier 2/3 guys a few posts up who I think will be just as good in the NFL as Smith.   I'd much rather have Rashod Bateman, Elijah Moore or Terrace Marshall in the 2nd.

Anyone doubting Smith to me is absolutely clueless. What did Smith due to Jaycee Horn, the best ras corner of all time? He beat his ass

What did Smith do to literally every single corner he went up against?

If we pass on him because he's skinny I will have 0 hope for this team 

I'm the analytics and athletic guy, and even I can see for DeVonta Smith it's totally irrelevant 

[Alphagrand]

9 minutes ago, austinfan said:

Not necessarily. If Lane is healthy, not beating out Lane and Mailata may simply mean we have the best trio of OTs in the NFL by a wide margin.

Agree with that, and that has value — but you don’t trade up in the first round with the idea of getting a super-sub.

[RememberTheKoy]

5 minutes ago, EricAllenPick6 said:

It may not be, but would you spend a top-10 or even top-20 pick on a guy that small?  Lots of NFL WRs have him by 30+ pounds, and that's not fat, that's muscle.  They are every bit as fast as he is, but stronger. 

 

 

I wouldn't spend a top 10 pick on hardly any WRs.  But Eagles are picking at 12 and I would for sure spend 12 on him although I prefer Horn because it addresses a bigger need. We are drafting him to play WR, not RB, not offensive or defensive line, not tight end, not LB and not DB.  He is exceptionally skilled at the skills you need to be a great WR in the NFL.  He has proved it at a high volume in the toughest conference in college over the course of multiple years. 

I have no doubts that he is going to be fully capable of being a high volume consistently productive and play making WR at the pro level. 

[austinfan]

Just now, Alphagrand said:

Agree with that, and that has value — but you don’t trade up in the first round with the idea of getting a super-sub.

Well, two years ago NO ONE projected Mialata as a potential starter, much less a potential Pro Bowl player.

He was a fun pick, but the longest of long shots.

Dillard didn't fall b/c of character concerns, he fell b/c he played in an offense that did little run blocking, so while everyone knew he'd be a top pass blocker at LT, there were concerns about his transition to the NFL game. Stoutland lobbied for him, so he saw enough on film to think he could "fix" him.

[Alphagrand]

5 minutes ago, mattmcginley7 said:

Anyone doubting Smith to me is absolutely clueless. What did Smith due to Jaycee Horn, the best ras corner of all time? He beat his ass

What did Smith do to literally every single corner he went up against?

If we pass on him because he's skinny I will have 0 hope for this team 

I'm the analytics and athletic guy, and even I can see for DeVonta Smith it's totally irrelevant 

 

[Alphagrand]

1 hour ago, ManuManu said:

 

If the Eagles are on the clock at #12 and the choices of BPA come down to Parsons, Lance, and Smith — Smith would be my 3rd choice.  

[RememberTheKoy]

5 minutes ago, austinfan said:

Well, two years ago NO ONE projected Mialata as a potential starter, much less a potential Pro Bowl player.

He was a fun pick, but the longest of long shots.

Dillard didn't fall b/c of character concerns, he fell b/c he played in an offense that did little run blocking, so while everyone knew he'd be a top pass blocker at LT, there were concerns about his transition to the NFL game. Stoutland lobbied for him, so he saw enough on film to think he could "fix" him.

 

No there are character concerns with Dillard.  That he doesn't have the mentality to play offensive line at this level. 

And a lot of people projected Mailata to be a future high level starter.   He had all the physical talent in the world it was just a question if someone could learn to play the game this late into life and starting out at the pro level.  It was a long shot for sure but there was definitely the projection of what he could be. 

[Iggles_Phan]

1 minute ago, austinfan said:

Well, two years ago NO ONE projected Mialata as a potential starter, much less a potential Pro Bowl player.

He was a fun pick, but the longest of long shots.

Dillard didn't fall b/c of character concerns, he fell b/c he played in an offense that did little run blocking, so while everyone knew he'd be a top pass blocker at LT, there were concerns about his transition to the NFL game. Stoutland lobbied for him, so he saw enough on film to think he could "fix" him.

Perhaps Dillard fell because the other teams had questions about his commitment to the game.  Perhaps he fell because he wasn't deemed mentally strong enough to handle the slings and arrows of scrutiny in the NFL.  Yes, Stoutland liked the tape.  But, did Stoutland ever talk to him before the draft?  Did any of the scouts?  Any of the other coaches?   Did they talk to his coaches about his character, personality, etc.?  

 

You don't know why he fell, so please don't present it as fact.  That's 100% opinion, unless you can present quotes from the teams that passed on him that say that.  There is always concern about the transition to the NFL game... which is why prospects need to be vetted by scouts and coaches ahead of time, they need to get into their head to find out about their work ethic, their discipline, their psyche... because that's a big determinator in terms of who can and who cannot transition.

[Desertbirds]

1 minute ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Perhaps Dillard fell because the other teams had questions about his commitment to the game.  Perhaps he fell because he wasn't deemed mentally strong enough to handle the slings and arrows of scrutiny in the NFL.  Yes, Stoutland liked the tape.  But, did Stoutland ever talk to him before the draft?  Did any of the scouts?  Any of the other coaches?   Did they talk to his coaches about his character, personality, etc.?  

 

You don't know why he fell, so please don't present it as fact.  That's 100% opinion, unless you can present quotes from the teams that passed on him that say that.  There is always concern about the transition to the NFL game... which is why prospects need to be vetted by scouts and coaches ahead of time, they need to get into their head to find out about their work ethic, their discipline, their psyche... because that's a big determinator in terms of who can and who cannot transition.

Apparently, there was a relatively short phone conversation between Stoutland and Dillard just before the draft.

There was no face-to-face interview. The Eagles were negligent in the vetting process. 

Dillard cannot be consider a good pick as it now stands.

[Iggles_Phan]

1 minute ago, Desertbirds said:

Apparently, there was a relatively short phone conversation between Stoutland and Dillard just before the draft.

There was no face-to-face interview. The Eagles were negligent in the vetting process. 

Dillard cannot be consider a good pick as it now stands.

That's not talking... that's just procedural.  You can't get into the nitty and the gritty at that point, and if its right before the draft takes place, the strategy for the draft should already have been in place.  There's not much that he could say pro or con that would move the needle one way or the other in that type of situation.  That's not vetting a pick.  That's being friendly.

[Desertbirds]

1 minute ago, Iggles_Phan said:

That's not talking... that's just procedural.  You can't get into the nitty and the gritty at that point, and if its right before the draft takes place, the strategy for the draft should already have been in place.  There's not much that he could say pro or con that would move the needle one way or the other in that type of situation.  That's not vetting a pick.  That's being friendly.

Agreed. The Eagles were caught with their pants down.

[Iggles_Phan]

Just now, Desertbirds said:

Agreed. The Eagles were caught with their pants down.

I will add... I was a fan of the pick at the time, because of his tape.  He has great feet.  BUT... I am not able to interview him, talk to him, get into his head and his habits.   That's the responsibility of the team.   And, regardless of whether or not the pick turns out to be a good one and if he rights the ship or not... the process behind the selection was extremely flawed.  And as we've seen over the last few years, those flaws in process have led to bad results in selections.   That's how it generally goes.  Good processes lead to good outcomes more often than not.   Equally, bad processes lead to bad outcomes more often than not.

[RLC]

Devonta Smith at 12 is fair value. The greatest WR season. High-end character.  A true outlier. You're also terrified to draft him. I'm really, really hoping he goes in the top 11 so we don't have to make that decision.

[austinfan]

12 minutes ago, RememberTheKoy said:

 

No there are character concerns with Dillard.  That he doesn't have the mentality to play offensive line at this level. 

And a lot of people projected Mailata to be a future high level starter.   He had all the physical talent in the world it was just a question if someone could learn to play the game this late into life and starting out at the pro level.  It was a long shot for sure but there was definitely the projection of what he could be. 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/andre-dillard/32004449-4c18-6167-8a82-fd2a79031894

https://www.phillyvoice.com/grading-eagles-selection-andre-dillard/

https://sny.tv/articles/scouting-report-for-nfl-draft-prospect-andre-dillard-is-he-jets-best-tackle-option

The "character issues" only arose after he struggled as a rookie, especially when asked to play on the right side, where he had almost zero experience. Wouldn't be the first player to get depressed when the transition to the pro game was tougher than expected. There were no reports anywhere of character issues pre-draft.

[garingovt2000]

32 minutes ago, mattmcginley7 said:

Anyone doubting Smith to me is absolutely clueless. What did Smith due to Jaycee Horn, the best ras corner of all time? He beat his ass

What did Smith do to literally every single corner he went up against?

If we pass on him because he's skinny I will have 0 hope for this team 

I'm the analytics and athletic guy, and even I can see for DeVonta Smith it's totally irrelevant 

 

 

PFF

 

@PFF

Only WR to ever record 50+ yards in a game against Jaycee Horn DeVonta Smith (60)

 

 

 

Not sure that is beating his a$$

[eglz1]

11 hours ago, TEW said:

Well, I’m in disagreement.

Picking up a first rounder when everyone around where we were picking is now looking to trade down seems to suggest the FO had a pretty good idea of what they were doing.

Even if we trade back up, if we net a future first by moving back a couple spots and giving up a third, that’s a huge win.

The FO is actually really, really good at moving around in the draft to grind value. And as much as you all may whine about the draft results, we’ve consistently been one of top teams in the NFL for two decades now with very few, and very short lived, rebuilding periods.

I don't know that Howie and Jeffrey have been as full of themselves as they have been since 2017. If they draft against their scouts advice as they are said to have done with pick 2 last year well, we'll see.