OFFICIAL 2023 1st Rd Draft Pick Tracker Thread

[bitbased]

Shaping up to potentially be a good week for us. Bears, Browns, Bucs, and Pitt all have a good shot at winning. Rams winning would be nice but obviously a long shot vs Seattle.

[time2rock]

We got help from the 9ers, Steelers, Browns, Jaguars, and Raiders this week.  Their wins bumped that pick from NO back up to 6.  Post #1 updated.  

Next weekend, we need the Bucs to hand the Saints another L on MNF.  

Also, root for:

• Broncos to beat the Ravens
• Rams to beat the Seahawks
• Bears to beat the Packers

The Panthers have their bye, so a NO loss would automatically push them ahead of Carolina based on overall record (Panthers would remain 4-8, NO would be 4-9).

If we are lucky enough to hit on all 4 of those, the pick will move up to 2. 

 

[Dwide Schrude]

23 hours ago, time2rock said:

We got help from the 9ers, Steelers, Browns, Jaguars, and Raiders this week.  Their wins bumped that pick from NO back up to 6.  Post #1 updated.  

Next weekend, we need the Bucs to hand the Saints another L on MNF.  

Also, root for:

• Broncos to beat the Ravens
• Rams to beat the Seahawks
• Bears to beat the Packers

The Panthers have their bye, so a NO loss would automatically push them ahead of Carolina based on overall record (Panthers would remain 4-8, NO would be 4-9).

If we are lucky enough to hit on all 4 of those, the pick will move up to 2. 

 

holding either Young/Stroud over so many QB needy teams heads would lead to an enormous trade package…

[Connecticut Eagle]

On 11/29/2022 at 7:23 AM, time2rock said:

We got help from the 9ers, Steelers, Browns, Jaguars, and Raiders this week.  Their wins bumped that pick from NO back up to 6.  Post #1 updated.  

Next weekend, we need the Bucs to hand the Saints another L on MNF.  

Also, root for:

• Broncos to beat the Ravens
• Rams to beat the Seahawks
• Bears to beat the Packers

The Panthers have their bye, so a NO loss would automatically push them ahead of Carolina based on overall record (Panthers would remain 4-8, NO would be 4-9).

If we are lucky enough to hit on all 4 of those, the pick will move up to 2. 

 

NO ending up below any of the current bottom-four teams would be a miracle.

 

[time2rock]

2 minutes ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

NO ending up below any of the current bottom-four teams would be a miracle.

 

Agreed.  As stated previously, I only post possibilities.  I don't expect to end up top 3-4.  Gut says we end up picking somewhere 6-10 (hopefully closer to 6).

[Dwide Schrude]

8 hours ago, time2rock said:

Agreed.  As stated previously, I only post possibilities.  I don't expect to end up top 3-4.  Gut says we end up picking somewhere 6-10 (hopefully closer to 6).

Yea I think it’ll be in the 8-12 range

[Peacekeeper]

Top 5 pick 100%

[MidMoFo]

2 hours ago, Dwide Schrude said:

Yea I think it’ll be in the 8-12 range

Beginning of the season I would have said picking at 8-12 was a gift. Saints defense is good, the oline and QB play has killed them. 
 

The fact they are still in the running for the NFC south sucks too… If we end up picking 8-12, I’ll be happy.

[Dwide Schrude]

8 minutes ago, MidMoFo said:

Beginning of the season I would have said picking at 8-12 was a gift. Saints defense is good, the oline and QB play has killed them. 
 

The fact they are still in the running for the NFC south sucks too… If we end up picking 8-12, I’ll be happy.

Oh yeah I’ll definitely be good with a top 15 pick.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

There's still a chance that our own pick will be higher than the Saints. We could go 14-3, finish in second place as the 5th seed and then have to face the 7-10 Saints, winners of the terrible NFC South in the wild card round. If we lose that, our pick would end up before theirs.

It sounds disgusting -- and it is -- but it's uncomfortably plausible.

[Dwide Schrude]

8 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

There's still a chance that our own pick will be higher than the Saints. We could go 14-3, finish in second place as the 5th seed and then have to face the 7-10 Saints, winners of the terrible NFC South in the wild card round. If we lose that, our pick would end up before theirs.

It sounds disgusting -- and it is -- but it's uncomfortably plausible.

Gross.

Saints are eliminated from playoffs with a loss to TB this week though right?

[time2rock]

1 hour ago, Dwide Schrude said:

Gross.

Saints are eliminated from playoffs with a loss to TB this week though right?

I don't see anything about that - this is all that is included relating to NFC teams:

https://nflplayoffscenarios.com/#nfc-1

[Connecticut Eagle]

2 hours ago, Dwide Schrude said:

Gross.

Saints are eliminated from playoffs with a loss to TB this week though right?

If they lose, the Saints would be three losses plus the H2H tiebreaker behind the Bucs.   The magic number would be two.

[bitbased]

2 hours ago, Dwide Schrude said:

Gross.

Saints are eliminated from playoffs with a loss to TB this week though right?

If TB wins this week, they need two more wins, 1 win/1 Saints loss, or two Saints losses to ensure the Saints can't win the division. Really hope TB wins because the Saints only have two likely losses on their schedule right now with the Eagles and Browns. The other two games are the Falcons and Panthers.

[time2rock]

1 hour ago, bitbased said:

If TB wins this week, they need two more wins, 1 win/1 Saints loss, or two Saints losses to ensure the Saints can't win the division. Really hope TB wins because the Saints only have two likely losses on their schedule right now with the Eagles and Browns. The other two games are the Falcons and Panthers.

TB is at home, prime time, and coming off an embarrassing loss to Cleveland (where they blew a 7th point lead in the final minute and lost ... where Brady was 218-0 in his career).  If they lose this game I'll be shocked.  

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

19 minutes ago, time2rock said:

TB is at home, prime time, and coming off an embarrassing loss to Cleveland (where they blew a 7th point lead and lost in the final minute ... where Brady was 218-0 in his career).  If they lose this game I'll be shocked.  

I won’t be shocked if the Bucs lose. They’re not as good as everyone seems to think, and the Saints aren’t as bad as everyone seems to think.

[time2rock]

14 minutes ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

I won’t be shocked if the Bucs lose. They’re not as good as everyone seems to think, and the Saints aren’t as bad as everyone seems to think.

I honestly can't say I disagree with either of those points (so perhaps "shocked" is a bit of an exaggeration).  

[Connecticut Eagle]

2 hours ago, Bacarty2 said:

You're gonna need 8 wins to get to the 10 to 12 range. 

I dont see 4 wins left on the saints schedule so thats basically a lock to be top 10

crap, i dont see 2 wins remaining on the saints schedule. 

Not this year.  Slots 5 thru 14 all have four wins.  Which of them will get 4 more wins with 5 or 6 games left?

[time2rock]

24 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

Well you can tell right off the bat that a lot of them play each other. I looked back a bunch of years and I'd say 7 wins was 10-14 pick a lot

We use the playoff predictor for just that, but you can see where the saints end up using it too

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

I got the saints tied for 6th with 5 wins 

Also didnt realize I was doing it but got 3 NFC East teams in, Eagles went 15-2. 

If the season ended today, the entire NFCE would be in the playoffs, so not too surprising.

Crazy considering how bad the division was for such a long stretch.  NFC least has once again become NFC beast!

[NOTW]

On 11/14/2022 at 3:22 PM, ManchesterEagle said:

I've seen two drafts now mocking a wide receiver to us in the first, even though we have Smith and Brown locked up through 2024 and another year of Watkins.

 

On 11/14/2022 at 4:28 PM, time2rock said:

I swear the people that do mocks pay zero attention to current needs, drafting history (e.g. continually mocking LBs or safeties to us in the 1st round), etc.  

Do you ever see mocks every year?  they are always listing positions the Eagles don't need at all.

[time2rock]

1 minute ago, NOTW said:

 

Do you ever see mocks every year?  they are always listing positions the Eagles don't need at all.

Exactly.  My comment wasn't just about recent mocks - it's an observation I've made over many, many years.  It's why I pay zero attention to them.  They're about as useful as "POWER RANKINGS" (oooh aaah lol)!!  

[NJWolverEagle11]

3 hours ago, NOTW said:

 

Do you ever see mocks every year?  they are always listing positions the Eagles don't need at all.

 

3 hours ago, time2rock said:

Exactly.  My comment wasn't just about recent mocks - it's an observation I've made over many, many years.  It's why I pay zero attention to them.  They're about as useful as "POWER RANKINGS" (oooh aaah lol)!!  

Mocks are usually laughable past the top 3 super obvious picks. Past that it's a collection of 32 crap shoots reacting w one another to make one giant crap shoot

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Damn Broncos, they should have had this one

[astrofed]

17 minutes ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

Damn Broncos, they should have had this one

the only thing you can count on the Broncos doing each week, and completely sucking.  I am resigned to the fact the Broncos will not have better record than the Saints.

[time2rock]

1 hour ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

Damn Broncos, they should have had this one

Bears too.  Well the most important game (other than the Eagles) is tomorrow night - absolutely need the Bucs to hand the Saints another L.  2nd most important is tonight … go Colts!!