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EMB Blog: 2024 Regular Season (Part 2) ... and Playoffs

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Eagles receiver A.J. Brown is out for wild-card game vs. Bucs with a knee injury. PHILADELPHIA (AP) — Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown will miss Monday night's playoff game against Tampa Bay with a knee injury.Jan 13, 2024

 

Seems like nobody remembers AJ going out with a knee in the last game on their way to getting bounced in the 1st round against the bucs last year. Rest up boys, and win it all.

 

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It's a 40 year old record and some are acting like it's going to be easily achieved next year :rolleyes:

Of course it’s possible that both could happen, but in big boy business adults have to make adult decisions including mitigating risk.

No matter what your feelings as a fan are, bottom line is the snaps that would be taken Sunday would be highly risky with respect to the goal of achieving the Super Bowl.

And the Super Bowl is clearly the ORGANIZATIONS highest priority. As it should be.

2 minutes ago, MR-CYN said:

Eagles receiver A.J. Brown is out for wild-card game vs. Bucs with a knee injury. PHILADELPHIA (AP) — Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown will miss Monday night's playoff game against Tampa Bay with a knee injury.Jan 13, 2024

 

Seems like nobody remembers AJ going out with a knee in the last game on their way to getting bounced in the 1st round against the bucs last year. Rest up boys, and win it all.

 

Wasn't that on the Giants **** field? This would be at home

1 minute ago, Mike030270 said:

It's weird how people are acting like that's not an option. That he either gets the record or we get the SB. Just one of the weird counters I've seen today

I don't think anyone is saying both CAN'T happen. I think people are weighing the risk. If he were to get injured in a game chasing an individual record in an otherwise meaningless game and got hurt (perhaps Giants taking cheap shots?), then their chances of winning the SB are likely gone. So in that sense, fans who favor resting the starters are just saying the risk of injury and not winning the SB outweighs the chance at the individual record.

IF that scenario happened, then there would anger and frustration at chasing the record and it resulted in not winning the SB. 

Of course the other argument is injuries can happen anytime you play there's always risk. That's why even former NFL coaches and players have differing opinions on it. 

1 minute ago, Mike030270 said:

It's a 40 year old record and some are acting like it's going to be easily achieved next year :rolleyes:

Has anyone said that? I haven't seen anyone say he will just get that record next year, I may have missed catching up with the thread. 

 

3 minutes ago, MR-CYN said:

Eagles receiver A.J. Brown is out for wild-card game vs. Bucs with a knee injury. PHILADELPHIA (AP) — Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown will miss Monday night's playoff game against Tampa Bay with a knee injury.Jan 13, 2024

 

Seems like nobody remembers AJ going out with a knee in the last game on their way to getting bounced in the 1st round against the bucs last year. Rest up boys, and win it all.

 

I remember that.   I also remember Cunningham going down in the first game of the season.  Injuries happen.  No guarantees they win it all even all rested up.  

4 minutes ago, Mike030270 said:

It's a 40 year old record and some are acting like it's going to be easily achieved next year :rolleyes:

No, most of us dont give one F about the record compared to having the best possible chance to win another ring.

16 minutes ago, Mike030270 said:

Why not both

If there’s even a 1% chance playing people week 18 negatively impacts our SB odds, would it have been worth it?

The goal is winning the SB. Make every decision possible to increase those odds, however slightly. Everything else is fluff

13 minutes ago, Saltpeter said:

What kinda nonsense is this? Are you even a fan of the team?

Yeah I'm sure Lions fans would prefer having Sanders and Calvin Johnson to not sucking balls for 50 years. My goodness...

In exchange for being Super Bowl champions? Of course

3 hours ago, Ace Nova said:

It’s anything but a meaningless game.  I’m done talking about it beside Sirianni made his decision. 

What I can guarantee you is that he likely pissed at least half the team off.  

So yes, anything less than (at least) a Super Bowl appearance and he will be second guessed - not just by fans, media, etc but by the players themselves and justifiably so. 

 

Jalen Hurts has a concussion and gets hit a lot.

Saquon Barkley has 378 touches and a game that relies on explosiveness - yet has a history of lower body injuries.

AJ Brown had a hamstring injury early and has shown up on the injury report multiple times. Devonta Smith just came off the injured list. Goedert is injured.

Lane Johnson's ankle/foot is hanging by a thread. Dickerson is perpetually dealing with injuries. Becton and Mailata have been hurt at various points this year.

Jalen Carter has played a ridiculous number of snaps. This is Nolan Smith's first healthy season in years. Dean is currently injured. Josh Sweat has had to maintain his knee since high school. CJGJ has been injured this year. Slay is 34. Zack Baun is completely irreplaceable, as are Mitchell and DeJean.

And yet, all these guys will likely be healthy for the first playoff game.

There's not being scared and there's playing with fire. You're seeing it the wrong way.

14 minutes ago, Next_Up said:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/chiefs-make-decision-on-resting-players-for-week-18-showdown-vs-broncos/

"It wasn't a hard decision," Reid said. "I've been through it before. ... It gives the other guys an opportunity to grow."

Impossible. That team is weak and none of them will ever win a ring

11 minutes ago, Mike030270 said:

Why not both

Why risk it, bearing in mind that you would have to play the entire first unit? Otherwise he would not be getting the blocking he would need, putting him and them further at risk. You would seriously risk a SB for an asterisk-laden record?

Just now, Aerolithe_Lion said:

If there’s even a 1% chance playing people week 18 negatively impacts our SB odds, would it have been worth it?

The goal is winning the SB. Make every decision possible to increase those odds, however slightly. Everything else is fluff

There was a chance he got injured every game

I couldn't find any good sites with stats on how teams fared in the playoffs after resting starters the final regular season game. So I asked ChatGPT. TL;DR version is it's been mixed, and there are (obviously) other factors that contribute to a team winning the SB besides rest. There are teams that have won with rest, teams that lost. There have been lower seed teams winning it all. It's just one factor.

ChatGPT:

The historical performance of NFL teams that rest their starters in the final regular season game is mixed and often debated among analysts and fans. While there’s no definitive answer, some trends and notable examples provide insights:

Positive Outcomes

  1. 2009 New Orleans Saints:

    • Rested starters in the final weeks of the season.
    • Went on to win the Super Bowl.
  2. 2005 Indianapolis Colts:

    • Frequently rested starters under coach Tony Dungy in playoff-bound seasons.
    • Had playoff success in 2006, culminating in a Super Bowl win.
  3. 1996 Green Bay Packers:

    • Rested key players in the final game of the season.
    • Won the Super Bowl.

Negative Outcomes

  1. 2007 Indianapolis Colts:

    • Rested starters after clinching the top seed but lost in the divisional round.
    • Often criticized for losing momentum in such seasons.
  2. 2011 Green Bay Packers:

    • Entered the playoffs with a 15-1 record after resting starters in Week 17.
    • Lost their first playoff game in the divisional round.

Trends and Considerations

  • Momentum vs. Rest: Teams resting starters risk losing competitive rhythm, which could lead to poor playoff performance. However, avoiding injuries to key players often outweighs this concern.
  • Injury Prevention: For teams with injury-prone players, resting starters can be crucial to ensuring they are at full strength for the playoffs.
  • Seed Impact: Teams with a first-round bye (who already get an extra week of rest) face additional scrutiny when resting starters, as this can result in up to three weeks without significant competition.

Conclusion

The decision to rest starters is a strategic one, and success in the playoffs depends on many factors beyond just rest. Teams like the 2009 Saints and 2005 Colts show that rest can pay off, while the 2011 Packers and 2007 Colts demonstrate the risks of losing momentum. Each situation must be evaluated in context, considering team health, matchup dynamics, and coaching philosophy.

1 minute ago, Mike030270 said:

There was a chance he got injured every game

Which is the whole point! Why add the risk now? You are making an argument against yourself.

1 minute ago, NOTW said:

I don't think anyone is saying both CAN'T happen. I think people are weighing the risk. If he were to get injured in a game chasing an individual record in an otherwise meaningless game and got hurt (perhaps Giants taking cheap shots?), then their chances of winning the SB are likely gone. So in that sense, fans who favor resting the starters are just saying the risk of injury and not winning the SB outweighs the chance at the individual record.

IF that scenario happened, then there would anger and frustration at chasing the record and it resulted in not winning the SB. 

Of course the other argument is injuries can happen anytime you play there's always risk. That's why even former NFL coaches and players have differing opinions on it. 

I think you’ve already seen differing opinions from the team. 

in post conference interview after Cowboys game:

Mailata said he wants to play & help Saquon get the record, that he’d use his status as captain to speak up about wanting to play. 
 

Lane on other hand said he wants the rest & is satisfied with getting Barkley to 2k

Both sides make sense. Mailata is younger, and would probably love to add helping Saquon break the record to his career achievements. To whereas Lane is 34, and has already achieved a great deal in the league & prefers the time off. 
 

I imagine Nick talked to the offensive starters about this

Just now, just relax said:

Why risk it, bearing in mind that you would have to play the entire first unit? Otherwise he would not be getting the blocking he would need, putting him and them further at risk. You would seriously risk a SB for an asterisk-laden record?

Why would it be an asterisk? Because it was in 16 weeks? What about OJ getting 2003yds in 14 weeks? Should Dickersons record have an asterisk?

What about the year Pats were caught spying. There wasn't an asterisk on their record or achievement

1 minute ago, just relax said:

Which is the whole point! Why add the risk now? You are making an argument against yourself.

I'm not superstitious and scared that he'll get injured 🤷‍♂️

1 minute ago, Mike030270 said:

There was a chance he got injured every game

Put aside risk of injury for a moment. It's also a bye week for the starters that will get rest. Teams play for the #1 seed and one of the benefits is a bye week, which is seen as an advantage to get rest. Plenty of teams have rested starters in the final regular season game to heal from injury, rest, and prepare for playoffs. It is what it is.

4 minutes ago, just relax said:

Why risk it, bearing in mind that you would have to play the entire first unit? Otherwise he would not be getting the blocking he would need, putting him and them further at risk. You would seriously risk a SB for an asterisk-laden record?

The bolded is the part where we differ.   No asterisk.  Dickerson's doesn't have an asterisk, does it?  Nope.  So, no asterisk if Barkley had gotten it.   All academic now.

Rams resting their starters now makes the Bucs the most likely 2nd round matchup as the Bucs will take the 3rd seed and Rams drop to 4th.  Not great.

Just now, RememberTheKoy said:

Rams resting their starters now makes the Bucs the most likely 2nd round matchup.  Not great.

The Rams are scared and losers! 

:lol:

1 minute ago, NOTW said:

The Rams are scared and losers! 

:lol:

 

Definitely aren't smart.  Setting themselves up for a 1st round matchup against Lions/Vikings instead of Redskins.

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