30 minutes ago, ToastJenkins said:

it's a trap to fall into the "The Process is the Product" mindset. That's six sigma manufacturing garbage.

if all that matters is process, I don't need a lawyer....or an investment banker....or a scientist. When dealing with people, the only marginal value comes from expertise. Which is where you have to trust the scouts and coaches.

The whole point of following the right process is that you will win in the long-term, even if you suffer losses in the short-term.

The problem is that people are impatient and want to get off when they suffer losses and pivot.

30 minutes ago, NCiggles said:

Stalin was the coolest of the bolsheviks? 

My point exactly was just to call Howie Rasputin.  Making  @austinfan a rightist and you a communist was just a bonus.  Also, probably influenced by listening to a podcast on the Russian revolution. 

I probably wouldn't try to elaborate any further on whatever analogy you're trying to justify here while you still can. 

Just now, Wentz_Era said:

I probably wouldn't try to elaborate any further on whatever analogy you're trying to justify here while you still can. 

I figured the politics of the Russian Revolution were completely safe territory.  

1 minute ago, NCiggles said:

I figured the politics of the Russian Revolution were completely safe territory.  

To the Finland Station is a great book.

12 minutes ago, TEW said:

Totally disagree. They executed this on Wentz and they got 1 year of what they were hoping for, which is about right by the numbers.

Most QBs fail to live up to their draft status. Lance is riskier than most QBs. For example, if on a 1-100 scale Lance has a chance to develop into a 95, but the chances of him doing this are 30%, then your expected value would be 28.5. Compare that with what is average at the draft slot, say 55% of getting an average player skill of 85, or an EV of 46.7. In this case, taking Lance doesn’t make sense. You’ve lowered your EV.

If, on the other hand, you trade back for an extra first, you would have increased your EV over both of those scenarios because of the extra first. You might respond that if you draft purely on EV then you could increase your EV further by selecting a non QB, and you would be right. That’s because QBs have such a low conversion rate at the same draft slot relative to other positions.

The catch here is that you have a very low probability of winning without a great QB, but finding a great QB is very difficult. Your EV is always going to be lower taking a QB relative to other positions, but when you hit on a QB, it changes your franchise for a decade. Missing on drafting a QB high in the first round is catastrophic because of the lost value. Teams that do this are set back 5 years. So hedging is the optimal strategy. Take the high risk/reward guys outside of the top 3 with a trade back is a much better bet than the "sure thing” in the first few picks and is a wildly better bet than trading multiple firsts to move up for one.

Again, think in probabilistic terms and not binary terms. 

So if I win the lottery I should roll all my winnings into more lottery tickets because of the non English you spouted here?  

12 minutes ago, RLC said:

The whole point of following the right process is that you will win in the long-term, even if you suffer losses in the short-term.

The problem is that people are impatient and want to get off when they suffer losses and pivot.

staying locked into a process that is producing declining results? insanity defined.

have to stay agile. players are not fungible widgets. especially QBs

and I have little hope for Hurts to be anything better than mediocre. and i still wouldnt touch a qb this year

Go before 12 please

Put together your top 3 players you think might be available at picks 12, 37, 70, and 84.  Be realistic

Pick 12 - Parsons, Horn, Surtain

Pick 37 -  Marshall, Freiermuth, Newsome

Pick 70 -  Ronnie Perkins, Payton Turner, Jamin Davis

Pick 84 - Adebo, Trey Smith, St- Juste

7 minutes ago, ToastJenkins said:

staying locked into a process that is producing declining results? insanity defined.

If your process is good, then you should double-down. Whether the process is good is up for debate.

16 minutes ago, NCiggles said:

I figured the politics of the Russian Revolution were completely safe territory.  

i appreciated it.

Thoughts on this kid?

https://thelibertyline.com/2021/04/15/eagles-showing-interest-in-louisiana-tech-rb-israel-tucker/?fbclid=IwAR2GQ6RNwc9fYwXiwoV9wgG4x7Ii_G4VofoCXK7DvtfHQWG-gWhapghtSW8

 

1 hour ago, RLC said:

If your process is good, then you should double-down. Whether the process is good is up for debate.

Clearly the process hasn’t been good because it hasn’t yielded good results in three years. No reason to stick to it. 

27 minutes ago, 4for4EaglesNest said:

Nah.  Pretty sure if I threw those names out it would be met with triggered vitriol.  

The guy killed more people than Hitler so yeah.

30 minutes ago, justrelax said:

Some things I both agree and disagree with here. First off, I think that a QB who is a serious threat to run puts tremendous strain on a defense. I'm not talking about the Baltimore style where running is central and integral to the offense. Rather, I'm talking about a defense that is forced to spy the QB, which distorts everything behind it. Also, there is little that dispirits a defense like playing perfect defense, covering everybody, and the QB gets the first down with his legs. That said, I would keep the read-option in but use it sparingly, just enough to make the defense close on the LOS. Getting back to the Baltimore offense for the moment, I think people tend to dismiss it out of hand. However, it was seventh in scoring, and only five points total behind KC, whom everybody loves offensively. Their problem is, IMHO, that Lamar Jackson is run first and second and passing a distant third. They have situational issues; their WRs are no better than ours, and Jackson has a very limited passing  game. He can flick it but his range is really 0-20 yards.

Second, I think and have said before that people here are underselling Hurts. He's a much better passer than Jackson and, while he doesn't have Wentz's gun he can  make all the throws. It would help if Doug hadn't called all those deep throws with a swiss cheese OL and crappy receivers. I recall a TD throw to Alshon where Hurts got crushed but stood in and threw a seed to Alshon in the front corner of the end zone. Thirty yards in the air on a rope. Give Hurts a legit offense and some OL and WRs and I expect his completion percentage to be well into the 60s, as it was at Oklahoma, where it was a tick under 70%. One thing that was really noticeable to me and that none of his detractors have commented on - well you have and here I disagree strongly - is his pocket presence, There he was light years better than Wentz. Carson was always backing out of the pocket; Hurts slides and moves up. Going backwards makes the OT's job impossible, since he can't ride the DE around the back of the pocket; Carson backed into trouble time and again. It was a big part of his regression. Hurts slides and moves up. Yes, he may take off too soon and his reads need much improvement but the instinct and feel are there. And I don't want to hear about his completion percentage. How good was Mahomes' in the SB? Lousy, because he was running for his life. Are we going to say Mahomes stinks? I hope not, but in similar circumstance he was no better than Hurts and he had infinitely better receivers.

Feel free to mock me, but I stand by this.

Alas, time will tell.

36 minutes ago, 4for4EaglesNest said:

Nah.  Pretty sure if I threw those names out it would be met with triggered vitriol.  

Just to make it clear if it wasn’t I was purely joking cause he called you Stalin. 

11 minutes ago, garingovt2000 said:

Thoughts on this kid?

https://thelibertyline.com/2021/04/15/eagles-showing-interest-in-louisiana-tech-rb-israel-tucker/?fbclid=IwAR2GQ6RNwc9fYwXiwoV9wgG4x7Ii_G4VofoCXK7DvtfHQWG-gWhapghtSW8

Never heard of him, looks to be an angry runner 

He has this running motion like his whole body is wobbling back and forth but it seems to work.

Doesn't have a ton of production or carries in college so at least he should be fresh.

I'm guessing he's a day 3 UDFA prospect?

27 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

Go before 12 please

Christian Baramore has all the measurables athletic ability and talent scouts and GMs love, his problem is actual production and motor but coaches are all ego maniacs and think they can bring the best out of players.

If a dude doesn't have a high motor in college what makes one think giving him millions of dollars will all the sudden change that?

I hope he's gone by 12 cuz Howie is definitely the type of idiot GM to draft Baramore

31 minutes ago, justrelax said:

To the Finland Station is a great book.

Once upon a time, I may have read that in a political philosophy course.  I might appreciate it more now.  

1 minute ago, Utebird said:

Christian Baramore has all the measurables athletic ability and talent scouts and GMs love, his problem is actual production and motor but coaches are all ego maniacs and think they can bring the best out of players.

If a dude doesn't have a high motor in college what makes one think giving him millions of dollars will all the sudden change that?

I hope he's gone by 12 cuz Howie is definitely the type of idiot GM to draft Baramore

Save us Dave Gettleman 

16 minutes ago, garingovt2000 said:

Thoughts on this kid?

https://thelibertyline.com/2021/04/15/eagles-showing-interest-in-louisiana-tech-rb-israel-tucker/?fbclid=IwAR2GQ6RNwc9fYwXiwoV9wgG4x7Ii_G4VofoCXK7DvtfHQWG-gWhapghtSW8

Not impressed really. if hes a 7th rounder....sure. Anything before that, no thank you. 

14 minutes ago, Utebird said:

The guy killed more people than Hitler so yeah.

You know pre-revolution Stalin was totally chill though besides some bank robbery.  

1 minute ago, DeathByEagle said:

Not impressed really. if hes a 7th rounder....sure. Anything before that, no thank you. 

It seems like he would be a UDFA but who knows. Howie will probably grab him with a 4th.  

2 minutes ago, Utebird said:

Christian Baramore has all the measurables athletic ability and talent scouts and GMs love, his problem is actual production and motor but coaches are all ego maniacs and think they can bring the best out of players.

If a dude doesn't have a high motor in college what makes one think giving him millions of dollars will all the sudden change that?

I hope he's gone by 12 cuz Howie is definitely the type of idiot GM to draft Baramore

2 years in college. 2 sacks in 2019, 8 sacks in 2020 during a season with a *. Not enough there to get me to buy in the first round, esp top 12. Im not buying it. 

1 minute ago, NCiggles said:

You know pre-revolution Stalin was totally chill though besides some bank robbery.  

Well ya know before Hitler killed all those jews he was just a failed artist😉

7 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

Save us Dave Gettleman