27 minutes ago, Ipiggles said:

 

 

Im predicting more of the same -         "WTH are they doing???"  picks. nothing has changed in the front office,  so I'm not crazy enough to think that the results will change.

 

LOL

 

 

Depends if they have truly embraced a rebuild

i am hopeful they have

I still say Mills , Mond and Franks , if I was set at QB for next year or two , I would draft one of these 3 and let them sit , hopefully behind a quality starter

6 minutes ago, UK Eagle said:

For players like Davion Taylor (regardless of draft position), the only way for him to get better over time is in OTAs, etc where he can work face to face with coaches outside of the pressure of TC.  Working out a local high school or doing system installs via  Zoom will do little for him.  Equally, having appropriate team supervision while working is out what any young player should want.  It builds relationships and gets your face seem by the right people.

The NFLPA are trying to do away with the bits they don't like, but as you say, aren't thinking collectively.  Frank,y,  JJ Watt (and the like) are the NFL exception, and not the rule.

I posted something similar yesterday. The jump from year 1 to year 2 is so important for young players.  Davion Taylor is the prime example as you noted.  Let's not forget the most important example...The Eagles have a Jalen Hurts (4 games) and Joe Flacco, never wore an Eagles uniform at quarterback and that's it.  These guys NEED REPS.  Every rep they can get is so important.

Then you look at Reagor, Hightower, Watkins and Fulgham.  They all need to develop their games, work on routes, gain chemistry with the QBs.  

Sorry but not sorry, Covid is now being used as an excuse for guys who don't want to participate.  If you can play a full 16-game season, traveling all over the country, then you can manage to stay in Philly for a week at a time surrounded by teammates in a controlled environment. Every other league is playing and traveling.  FCS football is playing a condensed spring season.  

Honestly, they have no reason not to have an in-person offseason.

I’m shocked at all the attention Darius Stills is getting ,undersized no length , yet over half the league has made contact with him

11 hours ago, austinfan said:

The reason you stress process over results, good process usually leads to good results, but good results by themselves may simply be a fluke.

It is starting to look more and more that the Eagles' SB win falls into the later category.

9 minutes ago, Original Sin said:

I’m shocked at all the attention Darius Stills is getting ,undersized no length , yet over half the league has made contact with him

Meh, it's a copy cat league and every one is looking for the next Aaron Donald,

I'm not sure the testing numbers compared to Aaron Donald but he has similar size not as much production

5 minutes ago, Utebird said:

Meh, it's a copy cat league and every one is looking for the next Aaron Donald,

I'm not sure the testing numbers compared to Aaron Donald but he has similar size not as much production

I think that’s exactly it 

12 minutes ago, Utebird said:

Meh, it's a copy cat league and every one is looking for the next Aaron Donald,

I'm not sure the testing numbers compared to Aaron Donald but he has similar size not as much production

speaking of Aaron Donald, surprised this hasn't be mentioned yet:

NFL Star Aaron Donald Accused Of Assault

Attorney Todd Hollis provided a picture to KDKA's Andy Sheehan of a man who appeared to have a swollen eye and cuts on his face

11 hours ago, ManuManu said:

Lowie harped on process over results in obvious run-first situations yet have led a process that ended with the owner making a second round pick (and passing on a higher ranked player at the same position) during a lively discussion while on the clock and the GM deciding to overrule his scouting department to take a backup QB over higher ranked players on their board. 

Yep, the ultimate process over results franchise. 

This is my issue. Either you're process-based or you're not. You don't get to cherry-pick.

26 minutes ago, Original Sin said:

I still say Mills , Mond and Franks , if I was set at QB for next year or two , I would draft one of these 3 and let them sit , hopefully behind a quality starter

But don't they have pencil necks?

2 hours ago, greend said:

Sure, but it wasn't like Doug was Mr. "Run the Ball" all the time so it was sustainable. Just asinine to critique him on that win and smells of a "big wig" always trying to prove how much smarter he is than you.

Well, in the future games he moved away from the QB running the ball... and they lost those games.   So, was it actually sustainable?

I am no defender of Lurie or Howie, but I agree with them questioning that move.  Making your QB a major part of the running game is NOT how you develop a QB in the NFL.  And that is not about them trying to prove they are smarter than anyone else.  Where has that ever been successful in the NFL over the long run?   And to be clear, I am not talking about an athletic QB breaking the pocket to pick up yardage on a broken play or on a play where they can't find a receiver, I am limiting this criticism to making the QB designed runs a major part of the game plan.

 

IF the organization as a whole (including Doug) saw Hurts as a long term solution at QB, then having him run the ball on designed QB runs was not going to help him improve in the areas that he needs the greatest work... pocket presence, going through reads, and making accurate throws from the pocket.  It was a case of a coach going into 'job security mode'.  And when a coach is in job security mode, he loses all sense of 'sustainability' beyond sustaining his own job.

3 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

speaking of Aaron Donald, surprised this hasn't be mentioned yet:

NFL Star Aaron Donald Accused Of Assault

Attorney Todd Hollis provided a picture to KDKA's Andy Sheehan of a man who appeared to have a swollen eye and cuts on his face

 

1 minute ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

 

8 hours ago, TEW said:

Exactly this!

Taking Lance at #6 or trading into the top 3 for him is totally different than leveraging an extra first round pick out of #6 and still getting a guy who you think can become a franchise QB.

Exactly not this

if you think Lance has that upside its a horrible risk to move back and decrease your chances of getting him. You cant hedge a franchise qb bet. Have to go all in. If he is your guy he is worth whatever you have to pay. They correctly executed this on Wentz doing the opposite of your process.

maholmes...even busts like trubisky. The process for qb is not to hedge. Thats how they ruined things with Hurts

9 hours ago, austinfan said:

You can only control process, results tend to be stochastic. The ball bounces funny.

Give me a coaching staff that teaches solid fundamentals, proper technique, demands players work hard to improve strength and conditioning, and focuses on field awareness.

Everyone in the stadium knew what Lombardi was going to run, and they couldn't stop it b/c his players executed his scheme perfectly.

The best teams don't have the best players, they have the players who play the best.

Processes need to be evaluated on the results they produce. We are at a point of consistently bad outcomes when judged by the outcomes of the rest of the League.  I think there's a good argument that there is no current "process" with respect to draft picks and it tends to go the way of whatever the whims of the owner are based on the voices in the room.  I think there is probably a bigger problem in that Howie is more Rasputin than Stolypin to Czar Lurie.  In this analogy, you are a rightist,   I'm a Constitutional Democrat. The majority of the blog are bolsheviks and  @ToastJenkins is Lenin and @4for4EaglesNest is Stalin.   

3 minutes ago, NCiggles said:

Processes need to be evaluated on the results they produce. We are at a point of consistently bad outcomes when judged by the outcomes of the rest of the League.  I think there's a good argument that there is no current "process" with respect to draft picks and it tends to go the way of whatever the whims of the owner are based on the voices in the room.  I think there is probably a bigger problem in that Howie is more Rasputin than Stolypin to Czar Lurie.  In this analogy, you are a rightist,   I'm a Constitutional Democrat. The majority of the blog are bolsheviks and  @ToastJenkins is Lenin and @4for4EaglesNest is Stalin.   

I am unclear if i should be proud or offended...

Just now, 4for4EaglesNest said:

  Give me one example as to why you would make this crazy claim.  

Can you change your name to 4for4stalinnest? 

Just now, 4for4EaglesNest said:

  Give me one example as to why you would make this crazy claim.  

Stalin was the coolest of the bolsheviks? 

3 minutes ago, ToastJenkins said:

I am unclear if i should be proud or offended...

My point exactly was just to call Howie Rasputin.  Making  @austinfan a rightist and you a communist was just a bonus.  Also, probably influenced by listening to a podcast on the Russian revolution. 

it's a trap to fall into the "The Process is the Product" mindset. That's six sigma manufacturing garbage.

if all that matters is process, I don't need a lawyer....or an investment banker....or a scientist. When dealing with people, the only marginal value comes from expertise. Which is where you have to trust the scouts and coaches.

38 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

speaking of Aaron Donald, surprised this hasn't be mentioned yet:

NFL Star Aaron Donald Accused Of Assault

Attorney Todd Hollis provided a picture to KDKA's Andy Sheehan of a man who appeared to have a swollen eye and cuts on his face

That's no bueno, could lead to a game or two suspension.

25 minutes ago, NCiggles said:

Processes need to be evaluated on the results they produce. We are at a point of consistently bad outcomes when judged by the outcomes of the rest of the League.  I think there's a good argument that there is no current "process" with respect to draft picks and it tends to go the way of whatever the whims of the owner are based on the voices in the room.  I think there is probably a bigger problem in that Howie is more Rasputin than Stolypin to Czar Lurie.  In this analogy, you are a rightist,   I'm a Constitutional Democrat. The majority of the blog are bolsheviks and  @ToastJenkins is Lenin and @4for4EaglesNest is Stalin.   

🤔Bolsheviks for Life🤘

2 minutes ago, NCiggles said:

Stalin was the coolest of the bolsheviks? 

My point exactly was just to call Howie Rasputin.  Making  @austinfan a rightist and you a communist was just a bonus.  Also, probably influenced by listening to a podcast on the Russian revolution. 

pretty sure you are the first to ever equate me to Lenin...lol

41 minutes ago, ToastJenkins said:

Exactly not this

if you think Lance has that upside its a horrible risk to move back and decrease your chances of getting him. You cant hedge a franchise qb bet. Have to go all in. If he is your guy he is worth whatever you have to pay. They correctly executed this on Wentz doing the opposite of your process.

maholmes...even busts like trubisky. The process for qb is not to hedge. Thats how they ruined things with Hurts

What if they have evaluated all 5 first round graded QBs to be better than what they have?

I agree — they did not move down from #6 to 12 with the plan to select a QB.  I think they believe it’s the proper value equation to get one of the CB prospects, or the last of the big name WR prospects that will still be there, and add a first round pick in the process.

It all depends how the board plays out on draft night, though.  Do you think DAL planned on sitting at #17 and having Lamb on the board for them?  You adjust to the circumstances.  They decided Lamb was BPA so they took him.  The same holds true if there is a QB at #12 they believe in.  If they think Lance (or Mac Jones) is BPA instead of Surtain or Horn, they will draft the QB.  It doesn’t point to poor process; it points to adjusting to the circumstances.

40 minutes ago, ToastJenkins said:

Exactly not this

if you think Lance has that upside its a horrible risk to move back and decrease your chances of getting him. You cant hedge a franchise qb bet. Have to go all in. If he is your guy he is worth whatever you have to pay. They correctly executed this on Wentz doing the opposite of your process.

maholmes...even busts like trubisky. The process for qb is not to hedge. Thats how they ruined things with Hurts

Totally disagree. They executed this on Wentz and they got 1 year of what they were hoping for, which is about right by the numbers.

Most QBs fail to live up to their draft status. Lance is riskier than most QBs. For example, if on a 1-100 scale Lance has a chance to develop into a 95, but the chances of him doing this are 30%, then your expected value would be 28.5. Compare that with what is average at the draft slot, say 55% of getting an average player skill of 85, or an EV of 46.7. In this case, taking Lance doesn’t make sense. You’ve lowered your EV.

If, on the other hand, you trade back for an extra first, you would have increased your EV over both of those scenarios because of the extra first. You might respond that if you draft purely on EV then you could increase your EV further by selecting a non QB, and you would be right. That’s because QBs have such a low conversion rate at the same draft slot relative to other positions.

The catch here is that you have a very low probability of winning without a great QB, but finding a great QB is very difficult. Your EV is always going to be lower taking a QB relative to other positions, but when you hit on a QB, it changes your franchise for a decade. Missing on drafting a QB high in the first round is catastrophic because of the lost value. Teams that do this are set back 5 years. So hedging is the optimal strategy. Take the high risk/reward guys outside of the top 3 with a trade back is a much better bet than the "sure thing” in the first few picks and is a wildly better bet than trading multiple firsts to move up for one.

Again, think in probabilistic terms and not binary terms. 

1 hour ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Well, in the future games he moved away from the QB running the ball... and they lost those games.   So, was it actually sustainable?

I am no defender of Lurie or Howie, but I agree with them questioning that move.  Making your QB a major part of the running game is NOT how you develop a QB in the NFL.  And that is not about them trying to prove they are smarter than anyone else.  Where has that ever been successful in the NFL over the long run?   And to be clear, I am not talking about an athletic QB breaking the pocket to pick up yardage on a broken play or on a play where they can't find a receiver, I am limiting this criticism to making the QB designed runs a major part of the game plan.

 

IF the organization as a whole (including Doug) saw Hurts as a long term solution at QB, then having him run the ball on designed QB runs was not going to help him improve in the areas that he needs the greatest work... pocket presence, going through reads, and making accurate throws from the pocket.  It was a case of a coach going into 'job security mode'.  And when a coach is in job security mode, he loses all sense of 'sustainability' beyond sustaining his own job.

Some things I both agree and disagree with here. First off, I think that a QB who is a serious threat to run puts tremendous strain on a defense. I'm not talking about the Baltimore style where running is central and integral to the offense. Rather, I'm talking about a defense that is forced to spy the QB, which distorts everything behind it. Also, there is little that dispirits a defense like playing perfect defense, covering everybody, and the QB gets the first down with his legs. That said, I would keep the read-option in but use it sparingly, just enough to make the defense close on the LOS. Getting back to the Baltimore offense for the moment, I think people tend to dismiss it out of hand. However, it was seventh in scoring, and only five points total behind KC, whom everybody loves offensively. Their problem is, IMHO, that Lamar Jackson is run first and second and passing a distant third. They have situational issues; their WRs are no better than ours, and Jackson has a very limited passing  game. He can flick it but his range is really 0-20 yards.

Second, I think and have said before that people here are underselling Hurts. He's a much better passer than Jackson and, while he doesn't have Wentz's gun he can  make all the throws. It would help if Doug hadn't called all those deep throws with a swiss cheese OL and crappy receivers. I recall a TD throw to Alshon where Hurts got crushed but stood in and threw a seed to Alshon in the front corner of the end zone. Thirty yards in the air on a rope. Give Hurts a legit offense and some OL and WRs and I expect his completion percentage to be well into the 60s, as it was at Oklahoma, where it was a tick under 70%. One thing that was really noticeable to me and that none of his detractors have commented on - well you have and here I disagree strongly - is his pocket presence, There he was light years better than Wentz. Carson was always backing out of the pocket; Hurts slides and moves up. Going backwards makes the OT's job impossible, since he can't ride the DE around the back of the pocket; Carson backed into trouble time and again. It was a big part of his regression. Hurts slides and moves up. Yes, he may take off too soon and his reads need much improvement but the instinct and feel are there. And I don't want to hear about his completion percentage. How good was Mahomes' in the SB? Lousy, because he was running for his life. Are we going to say Mahomes stinks? I hope not, but in similar circumstance he was no better than Hurts and he had infinitely better receivers.

Feel free to mock me, but I stand by this.