EMB Blog: 2021 Regular and Post Season

[Iggles_Phan]

2 minutes ago, NCiggles said:

Weidl drafted Hurts that wasn't on Howie either. 

Hey Howie...

[LeanMeanGM]

1 minute ago, SB52 said:

Using the Vegas ML as the probability, the Colts have an approximately 30% chance to lose to NYJ, JAX, or both. If that happens the first rounder will be gone.

Had they won yesterday this discussion would be over.

It's been over when Reich has Wentz in a blowout win handing off for an entire quarter. They aren't thinking or caring about snaps. 

[Guest]

 

[e-a-g-l-e-s eagles!]

3 minutes ago, NCiggles said:

Weidl drafted Hurts that wasn't on Howie either. 

Wait it’s on weidl now? I thought it was on doug cause he smiled in the draft room.

[315Eagles]

So are Lurie and Roseman super pissed today because they didn't throw the ball a ton yesterday? 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, 4for4EaglesNest said:

WOW

 

I actually agree with him.  I bet they had the conversation before the season started, and all agreed on that plan.

[Connecticut Eagle]

12 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

2016 - Seumalo alone remains 5 years after that draft.   Fair to say, this wasn't just a poor draft, but a BAD one.

Beg to differ on that one.  

Carson was a very good QB and was signed to a second deal HERE.  The crap that occurred after that shouldn't be pinned on the draft process.

Seumalo is a solid starter in the third round - WIN

Big V started at LT on a SB winning team.  Signed a big deal elsewhere.  WIN for a fifth round pick.

Mills is still in the league.  By definition, that is a WIN for a seventh round pick.

 

2017 - 2020 were a mess.

[SB52]

4 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

It's been over when Reich has Wentz in a blowout win handing off for an entire quarter. They aren't thinking or caring about snaps. 

We’re a long way from the second half of Week 12.

FWIW, I calculated the win probability incorrectly. It’s closer to 26%.

[Connecticut Eagle]

1 minute ago, downundermike said:

I actually agree with him.  I bet they had the conversation before the season started, and all agreed on that plan.

Nah.  

That type of provision is protection for an injury.

IMO, it would be bad faith (and make further deals difficult) if the Colts sat a healthy Wentz to protect a pick.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

Nah.  

That type of provision is protection for an injury.

IMO, it would be bad faith (and make further deals difficult) if the Colts sat a healthy Wentz to protect a pick.

He has had enough injuries, that it could flare up and require surgery

[greend]

2 minutes ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

Nah.  

That type of provision is protection for an injury.

IMO, it would be bad faith (and make further deals difficult) if the Colts sat a healthy Wentz to protect a pick.

Exactly

[austinfan]

7 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Let's go with this then... how many years does the player need to be a starter for the pick to be considered a 'solid' starter?   And let's ignore the 'they are starting elsewhere' defense.  That's irrelevant, they are either contributing here or it was a bad pick.

2016 - Seumalo alone remains 5 years after that draft.   Fair to say, this wasn't just a poor draft, but a BAD one.
2017 - Barnett alone remains 4 years after the draft.  Again, fair to say, this wasn't just a poor draft, but yet another BAD one.   Does Barnett even count as a starter, or is he just a rotational DE and is now getting more snaps due to the injury to Graham?  
2018 - Goedert is now a starter, but had been in that solid backup camp until now.  Maddox, mostly a backup. Sweat has been a backup, only becoming a starting this year, but mostly a rotational guy, and could be argued he .  Mailata - mostly a backup.  Pryor only a backup here, and brutal last year.   At best, this is a FAIR draft.  But, in terms of 'starts'... there are very few cumulative starts on this team from this group.  It may turn out better as we move to 2022, but unless Goedert resigns here, he really doesn't get to count as 'solid starter', because his previous seasons he's only been a backup/contributor, not a starter.
2019 - Dillard has been primarily a backup, or injured.  Sanders is the starter, and has been for 3 years.  JJAW has been BRUTAL and doesn't even qualify as a 'solid' backup.  4 catches over the last year and a half... only 14 receptions total in 2.5 seasons.  That bust territory for a 2nd round pick.  The rest are long gone.

2020 is in the too soon category.  But Smith is starting.  Dickerson is starting due to injury, does he be more than solid backup or starter?  Of course, if he's the starter, then Seumalo is not.  Can't double dip at LG.  Only one is the 'starter'. 

Moving the goal posts much? First, I talked about the last four years, 2018 was the only decent draft under Douglas. Howie depends on his personnel guys, his strength is draft day maneuvering, not player evaluation.

2018-2019 were limited due to only 10 draft picks, (1) 1st, (3) 2nds, (0) 3rds, combined that's a good first day draft.

Goedert is a starter, whether he re-signs or not (we're judging drafts, not subsequent moves). Mailata is a starter, some players are drafted knowing they'll take time to develop.  Maddox is a top NCB. Sweat is a rotational pass rusher but so are most sackmeisters, how many play more than 50-60% of snaps? Pryor was a top backup here and is starting.

Dillard was behind Peters, tore his bicep, behind Mailata, but showed he can start, and will start once he's traded. Being stuck behind two top OTs doesn't mean you can't play.

Reagor I think will turn out like Agholor but the mirror image, they tried to make Agholor a slot WR, he's better as a deep threat, I think Reagor is better as an underneath WR where the focus should be on YAC. Obviously, they should have taken Jefferson, I'm curious about who was lobbying for Reagor? Taylor, Driscoll, Watkins at worst are top backups. Taylor was a project when drafted - unless you want a lot of JAGS you have to gamble on these guys after pick 100.

Hurts is good value at #53.  Hurts may be struggling to learn how to pass out of the pocket, but so is every young QB not named Mac Jones, Mayfield after 4 years still can't figure it out. Why should Fields, Lawrence and Wilson get a mulligan? Aren't the Eagles a bad team like the Jets, Bears and Jags?  What excuse does Darnold or D Jones have in their 4th and 5th seasons? Point is Hurts is about as good/bad as you'd expect from a young QB with 12 starts in his fourth different offensive scheme in four years.

 

 

[Iggles_Phan]

1 minute ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

Beg to differ on that one.  

Carson was a very good QB and was signed to a second deal HERE.  The crap that occurred after that shouldn't be pinned on the draft process.

Seumalo is a solid starter in the third round - WIN

Big V started at LT on a SB winning team.  Signed a big deal elsewhere.  WIN for a fifth round pick.

Mills is still in the league.  By definition, that is a WIN for a seventh round pick.

 

2017 - 2020 were a mess.

Sure.  The final outcome is where we are though.   2016 wasn't that long ago and they have one player left on the roster to show for it.  Maybe they could have found a way to keep Vaitai around... and if they had, maybe they don't need to burn a 2nd round pick on Dickerson.  Or a first on Dillard... but they didn't.  He was never in the long term plans.  He was good depth for 4 years and that's it.  Carson was really good here, but the entire mess that the franchise went through falls at the feet of the GM, in my book, so the fact that the assets they sunk into Wentz fall on him, because he failed to 'make it work' with his chosen franchise QB.   

None of these moves exist in isolation.  They all form a tapestry of ineptitude by Howie, which is kind of the point.

[e-a-g-l-e-s eagles!]

Just now, Connecticut Eagle said:

Nah.  

That type of provision is protection for an injury.

IMO, it would be bad faith (and make further deals difficult) if the Colts sat a healthy Wentz to protect a pick.

Even though the Colts lose the tiebreaker to the Titans, they will be in competition for that division because of the loss of Derrick Henry. Derrick Henry is the cog that makes that offense go. I still think the titans win the division but would it surprise anyone of us if there’s a dramatic drop off on offense with Henry out? I like tannehill but I’m curious to see how well he functions when teams don’t have to focus on Henry. he has to be the one who steps up in his absence. Gonna see what tannehill is really made of over the next 9 games 

[WentzFan11]

3 minutes ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

Nah.  

That type of provision is protection for an injury.

IMO, it would be bad faith (and make further deals difficult) if the Colts sat a healthy Wentz to protect a pick.

Every week it needs to be explained how stupid it would be for the Colts as an organization to bench a healthy Wentz. 
 

 

[Guest justrelax]

1 minute ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

Nah.  

That type of provision is protection for an injury.

IMO, it would be bad faith (and make further deals difficult) if the Colts sat a healthy Wentz to protect a pick.

If they reach a point where they're no longer in the playoff hunt it would be stupid of them not to protect the pick. We sat Hurts last year and played Sudfield in the last game. The Giants howled, at least I think it was the Giants. Too bad. Do what's best for your team. It's the difference between, say, pick 13 and pick 45.

[SB52]

6 minutes ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

Nah.  

That type of provision is protection for an injury.

IMO, it would be bad faith (and make further deals difficult) if the Colts sat a healthy Wentz to protect a pick.

The Eagles are 10 months away from having tanked an actual game for draft position. You think anyone in the league office would cry for them if someone did something similar?

Plus, we’re burying the lead. His 4th quarter meltdown cost them a chance at the division. They’re now 3.5 games back of the Titans.

[Connecticut Eagle]

1 minute ago, justrelax said:

If they reach a point where they're no longer in the playoff hunt it would be stupid of them not to protect the pick. We sat Hurts last year and played Sudfield in the last game. The Giants howled, at least I think it was the Giants. Too bad. Do what's best for your team. It's the difference between, say, pick 13 and pick 45.

We benched a backup for another backup for a half.  The pick impact was maybe a slot or two, not an entire round.  This would be different.

[austinfan]

8 minutes ago, downundermike said:

 

One reason you're not going to see a lot to the left out of the pocket is the lack of a traditional, big possession "X" WR.

Given Sirianni's history in Indy, I think that will be an offseason priority, though it'll be interesting to see how they use Jackson once he's healthy.

Stoll is establishing himself as the #2 TE, especially with his improved blocking, Jackson might get some looks as a big WR/H-back hybrid.

JJAW must really suck not to get looks in that role, Sirianni has worked with a number of big WRs in SD and Indy, from Allen to Pascal to Pittman. He likes them.

[Alphagrand]

Teams like CIN and the Chargers losing keeps IND in the wildcard hunt.  Both wildcard teams in the AFC already have 3 losses, and are likely to have at least 5 losses by the time Week 13 and 14 come around.  As long as Wentz is healthy he's playing.  Put it to bed.  

[Guest justrelax]

Just now, Connecticut Eagle said:

We benched a backup for another backup for a half.  The pick impact was maybe a slot or two, not an entire round.  This would be different.

All the more reason to do it.

[austinfan]

Just now, Connecticut Eagle said:

We benched a backup for another backup for a half.  The pick impact was maybe a slot or two, not an entire round.  This would be different.

And it wasn't done to tank, Pederson had promised Sudfeld some PT to showcase his talent (or lack of such) before he entered free agency.

[e-a-g-l-e-s eagles!]

Just now, justrelax said:

If they reach a point where they're no longer in the playoff hunt it would be stupid of them not to protect the pick. We sat Hurts last year and played Sudfield in the last game. The Giants howled, at least I think it was the Giants. Too bad. Do what's best for your team. It's the difference between, say, pick 13 and pick 45.

To be honest I don’t even think they would just bench them. I think they would use the ankle injuries as an excuse that he’s not right this late in the season and we don’t want him to further injure it for next year. That’s probably the reasoning that they’re going to come up with if they were to do it. That said I expect them to be in competition for the wildcard up until week 15. They are 3-5 and the current 6 and 7 seed are 4-3. The colts have 5 tough games left at Buffalo, at Bucs, vs. New England, at Arizona and vs. raiders. I wouldn’t be shocked if they go 3-2 or 1-4 in those games. They’ve shown they can play with teams like the ravens and titans. So i don’t think it’s a stretch if they upset the cardinals and beat the patriots and raiders at home. 

[LeanMeanGM]

2 minutes ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

We benched a backup for another backup for a half.  The pick impact was maybe a slot or two, not an entire round.  This would be different.

*Quarter. Hurts played all of Q3. Big difference between 1 quarter of a game and 1 quarter of a season.

[Connecticut Eagle]

Just now, austinfan said:

And it wasn't done to tank, Pederson had promised Sudfeld some PT to showcase his talent (or lack of such) before he entered free agency.

I thought I had a real chance to win this argument.

 

 

 

 

Then austinfan took my side.