Hurts in 2022

[eglz1]

22 hours ago, Cochis_Calhoun said:

 

Hurts proved at Oklahoma that in the right system he can sling it accurately and maintain his rushing numbers, the Eagles are hoping he takes the step at NFL level, a large section of the TATE Brains Trust says he absolutely cannot and will not, couple of months we're gonna find out.

The Big 12 is not exactly known for their stingy defenses.

[brkmsn]

1 hour ago, Swoop said:

 Wouldn't you say that Hurts threw the ball less than 10 yards for the majority of his completions? I would. Most of us watching, would.

I haven't really looked into that statistically and it wouldn't surprise me if there's a site that tracks such a stat. My question is, how is that any different than any other QB? Wouldn't the same exact thing be true for virtually every QB that throws a qualifying amount of passes? Joe Burrow led the NFL in yards per attempt passing (8.9). Hurts was tied at 14th at 7.3 yards per attempt. Since most QBs complete more than 50% of their passes and the highest yards per attempt passer averaged more than a yard under 10 yards, it's pretty obvious to conclude that a majority of all QBs' completions were less than 10 yards. Basic math is still basic. 

I understand in a disagreement we want to get that argument out there regardless of verification and often context as well. But asking me a question where a certain answer is expected, where the same answer would be expected in the case of every player out there, doesn't really drive home a point. In 2021, Hurts had accuracy issues at times. While he showed improvement overall (over his previous season) which can be verified statistically, he still needs to get better. Many factors contributed to his accuracy and completion percentages, including mechanics, timing, and decision making. 

So, to answer your question --- Yes. I would say that like 100% of qualifying QBs in the NFL, Hurts did indeed throw the ball less than 10 Yards on a majority of his completions. Isn't agreeing fun?

[MidMoFo]

4 hours ago, Shalodeep said:

I feel defenses have less of a mountain to climb than Jalen is why I lean away from Jalen's camp in this equation. Jalen has multiple fronts to fix before he can be considered a top guy...and all a defense has to do is make him win within the pocket and don't let him roll right

Hurts doesn’t have multiple fronts to fix. Our offense is going to face a lot of zone coverage, until Hurts proves he can beat it. 
Two reasons why we are going to see a lot of zone coverage: 1. I don’t think many teams want to go man vs Brown, Smith, Goedert, Watkins and Sanders/Gainwell. 2. Man coverage leaves you vulnerable against a QB that can tuck it and run.

Hurts needs to make pre-snap reads to see what zone coverage is coming and know which receiver is going to be in the weak spot. Easier said than done, but improvement in that area will fix every other concern his haters have about him.

[Swoop]

2 hours ago, brkmsn said:

I haven't really looked into that statistically and it wouldn't surprise me if there's a site that tracks such a stat. My question is, how is that any different than any other QB? Wouldn't the same exact thing be true for virtually every QB that throws a qualifying amount of passes? Joe Burrow led the NFL in yards per attempt passing (8.9). Hurts was tied at 14th at 7.3 yards per attempt. Since most QBs complete more than 50% of their passes and the highest yards per attempt passer averaged more than a yard under 10 yards, it's pretty obvious to conclude that a majority of all QBs' completions were less than 10 yards. Basic math is still basic. 

I understand in a disagreement we want to get that argument out there regardless of verification and often context as well. But asking me a question where a certain answer is expected, where the same answer would be expected in the case of every player out there, doesn't really drive home a point. In 2021, Hurts had accuracy issues at times. While he showed improvement overall (over his previous season) which can be verified statistically, he still needs to get better. Many factors contributed to his accuracy and completion percentages, including mechanics, timing, and decision making. 

So, to answer your question --- Yes. I would say that like 100% of qualifying QBs in the NFL, Hurts did indeed throw the ball less than 10 Yards on a majority of his completions. Isn't agreeing fun?

Okay, now we're slowly getting there. Now how many of those passes were at or behind the line of scrimmage? I'd bet more than most QBs.

[brkmsn]

22 minutes ago, Swoop said:

Okay, now we're slowly getting there. Now how many of those passes were at or behind the line of scrimmage? I'd bet more than most QBs.

If you were betting, you might be losing money then. 

The graphic won't let me sort by category at this time, but look at IAY/PA (Intended air yards per pass attempt - Average depth of target whether completed or not): 

Advanced Passing

 

Air Yards

Accuracy

Pressure

Play Type

					Games		Passing
Rk	Player	Tm	Age	Pos	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	IAY	IAY/PA	CAY	CAY/Cmp	CAY/PA	YAC	YAC/Cmp
1	Tom Brady*	TAM	44	QB	17	17	485	719	5316	5791	8.1	2762	5.7	3.8	2554	5.3
2	Justin Herbert*	LAC	23	QB	17	17	443	672	5014	5076	7.6	2627	5.9	3.9	2387	5.4
3	Matthew Stafford	LAR	33	QB	17	17	404	601	4886	5092	8.5	2760	6.8	4.6	2126	5.3
4	Patrick Mahomes*	KAN	26	QB	17	17	436	658	4839	4829	7.3	2140	4.9	3.3	2699	6.2
5	Derek Carr	LVR	30	QB	17	17	428	626	4804	5087	8.1	2525	5.9	4.0	2279	5.3
6	Joe Burrow	CIN	25	QB	16	16	366	520	4611	4192	8.1	2332	6.4	4.5	2279	6.2
7	Dak Prescott	DAL	28	QB	16	16	410	596	4449	4592	7.7	2425	5.9	4.1	2024	4.9
8	Josh Allen	BUF	25	QB	17	17	409	646	4407	5304	8.2	2664	6.5	4.1	1743	4.3
9	Kirk Cousins*	MIN	33	QB	16	16	372	561	4221	4576	8.2	2415	6.5	4.3	1806	4.9
10	Aaron Rodgers*+	GNB	38	QB	16	16	366	531	4115	4099	7.7	1947	5.3	3.7	2168	5.9
11	Matt Ryan	ATL	36	QB	17	17	375	560	3968	3986	7.1	2244	6.0	4.0	1724	4.6
12	Jimmy Garoppolo	SFO	30	QB	15	15	301	441	3810	3304	7.5	1844	6.1	4.2	1966	6.5
13	Mac Jones*	NWE	23	QB	17	17	352	521	3801	4161	8.0	2027	5.8	3.9	1774	5.0
14	Kyler Murray*	ARI	24	QB	14	14	333	481	3787	3847	8.0	1986	6.0	4.1	1801	5.4
15	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	39		16	16	390	605	3740	4052	6.7	1808	4.6	3.0	1932	5.0
16	Ryan Tannehill	TEN	33	QB	17	17	357	531	3734	3959	7.5	1958	5.5	3.7	1776	5.0
17	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	22	QB	17	17	359	602	3641	4745	7.9	2004	5.6	3.3	1637	4.6
18	Carson Wentz	IND	29	QB	17	17	322	516	3563	3941	7.6	1913	5.9	3.7	1650	5.1
19	Taylor Heinicke	WAS	28	QB	16	15	321	494	3419	3762	7.6	1655	5.2	3.4	1764	5.5
20	Jared Goff	DET	27	QB	14	14	332	494	3245	3150	6.4	1490	4.5	3.0	1755	5.3
21	Jalen Hurts	PHI	23	QB	15	15	265	432	3144	3867	9.0	1681	6.3	3.9	1463	5.5
22	Russell Wilson*	SEA	33	QB	14	14	259	400	3113	3956	9.9	1730	6.7	4.3	1383	5.3
23	Teddy Bridgewater	DEN	29	QB	14	14	285	426	3052	3417	8.0	1658	5.8	3.9	1394	4.9
24	Baker Mayfield	CLE	26	QB	14	14	253	418	3010	3610	8.6	1632	6.5	3.9	1378	5.4
25	Lamar Jackson*	BAL	24	QB	12	12	246	382	2882	3543	9.3	1734	7.0	4.5	1148	4.7
26	Davis Mills	HOU	23	QB	13	11	263	394	2664	2852	7.2	1419	5.4	3.6	1245	4.7
27	Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	23	QB	13	12	263	388	2653	2734	7.0	1436	5.5	3.7	1217	4.6
28	Sam Darnold	CAR	24	QB	12	11	243	406	2527	2947	7.3	1151	4.7	2.8	1376	5.7
29	Daniel Jones	NYG	24	QB	11	11	232	361	2428	2616	7.2	1334	5.8	3.7	1094	4.7
30	Zach Wilson	NYJ	22	QB	13	13	213	383	2334	2900	7.6	1245	5.8	3.3	1089	5.1
31	Justin Fields	CHI	22	qb	12	10	159	270	1870	2641	9.8	1178	7.4	4.4	692	4.4
32	Andy Dalton	CHI	34	qb	8	6	149	236	1515	1620	6.9	763	5.1	3.2	752	5.0
33	Jacoby Brissett	MIA	29	qb	11	5	141	225	1283	1691	7.5	775	5.5	3.4	508	3.6
34	Jameis Winston	NOR	27	qb	7	7	95	161	1170	1340	8.3	589	6.2	3.7	581	6.1
35	Trevor Siemian	NOR	30	qb	6	4	108	188	1154	1298	6.9	652	6.0	3.5	502	4.6
36	Tyler Huntley	BAL	23	qb	7	4	122	188	1081	1409	7.5	635	5.2	3.4	446	3.7
37	Taysom Hill	NOR	31	qb	12	9	78	134	978	982	7.3	457	5.9	3.4	521	6.7
38	Tyrod Taylor	HOU	32	qb	6	6	91	150	966	1105	7.4	473	5.2	3.2	493	5.4
39	Mike White	NYJ	26	qb	4	3	88	132	953	777	5.9	387	4.4	2.9	566	6.4
40	Mike Glennon	NYG	32	qb	6	4	90	167	790	1212	7.3	383	4.3	2.3	407	4.5
41	Drew Lock	DEN	25	qb	6	3	67	111	787	1117	10.1	447	6.7	4.0	340	5.1
42	Colt McCoy	ARI	35	qb	8	3	74	99	740	522	5.3	288	3.9	2.9	452	6.1
43	Geno Smith	SEA	31	qb	4	3	65	95	702	669	7.0	342	5.3	3.6	360	5.5
44	Cam Newton	CAR	32	qb	8	5	69	126	684	880	7.0	375	5.4	3.0	309	4.5
45	Josh Johnson	2TM	35		4	1	57	85	638	616	7.2	355	6.2	4.2	283	5.0
46	Trey Lance	SFO	21	qb	6	2	41	71	603	658	9.3	315	7.7	4.4	288	7.0
47	Tim Boyle	DET	27	qb	5	3	61	94	526	589	6.3	261	4.3	2.8	265	4.3
48	Case Keenum	CLE	33	qb	7	2	47	72	462	417	5.8	156	3.3	2.2	306	6.5
49	Gardner Minshew II	PHI	25	qb	4	2	41	60	439	333	5.6	164	4.0	2.7	275	6.7
50	Cooper Rush	DAL	28	qb	5	1	30	47	422	418	8.9	209	7.0	4.4	213	7.1

 

At 9.0 average, Hurts is behind only Lock, Wilson, Fields, Lance and Jackson. I'm guessing this isn't what you were hoping to find. Lock and Lance benefit from a small sample size. But Hurts, last season, looked to throw further than the average QB. One could reasonably argue that he could increase his completion percentage by looking for checkdowns more often. But the idea that he somehow is near the lead in passes near the LOS is obviously false. 

[Swoop]

13 minutes ago, brkmsn said:

If you were betting, you might be losing money then. 

The graphic won't let me sort by category at this time, but look at IAY/PA (Intended air yards per pass attempt - Average depth of target whether completed or not): 

Advanced Passing

 

 

Air Yards

Accuracy

Pressure

Play Type

					Games		Passing
Rk	Player	Tm	Age	Pos	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	IAY	IAY/PA	CAY	CAY/Cmp	CAY/PA	YAC	YAC/Cmp
1	Tom Brady*	TAM	44	QB	17	17	485	719	5316	5791	8.1	2762	5.7	3.8	2554	5.3
2	Justin Herbert*	LAC	23	QB	17	17	443	672	5014	5076	7.6	2627	5.9	3.9	2387	5.4
3	Matthew Stafford	LAR	33	QB	17	17	404	601	4886	5092	8.5	2760	6.8	4.6	2126	5.3
4	Patrick Mahomes*	KAN	26	QB	17	17	436	658	4839	4829	7.3	2140	4.9	3.3	2699	6.2
5	Derek Carr	LVR	30	QB	17	17	428	626	4804	5087	8.1	2525	5.9	4.0	2279	5.3
6	Joe Burrow	CIN	25	QB	16	16	366	520	4611	4192	8.1	2332	6.4	4.5	2279	6.2
7	Dak Prescott	DAL	28	QB	16	16	410	596	4449	4592	7.7	2425	5.9	4.1	2024	4.9
8	Josh Allen	BUF	25	QB	17	17	409	646	4407	5304	8.2	2664	6.5	4.1	1743	4.3
9	Kirk Cousins*	MIN	33	QB	16	16	372	561	4221	4576	8.2	2415	6.5	4.3	1806	4.9
10	Aaron Rodgers*+	GNB	38	QB	16	16	366	531	4115	4099	7.7	1947	5.3	3.7	2168	5.9
11	Matt Ryan	ATL	36	QB	17	17	375	560	3968	3986	7.1	2244	6.0	4.0	1724	4.6
12	Jimmy Garoppolo	SFO	30	QB	15	15	301	441	3810	3304	7.5	1844	6.1	4.2	1966	6.5
13	Mac Jones*	NWE	23	QB	17	17	352	521	3801	4161	8.0	2027	5.8	3.9	1774	5.0
14	Kyler Murray*	ARI	24	QB	14	14	333	481	3787	3847	8.0	1986	6.0	4.1	1801	5.4
15	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	39		16	16	390	605	3740	4052	6.7	1808	4.6	3.0	1932	5.0
16	Ryan Tannehill	TEN	33	QB	17	17	357	531	3734	3959	7.5	1958	5.5	3.7	1776	5.0
17	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	22	QB	17	17	359	602	3641	4745	7.9	2004	5.6	3.3	1637	4.6
18	Carson Wentz	IND	29	QB	17	17	322	516	3563	3941	7.6	1913	5.9	3.7	1650	5.1
19	Taylor Heinicke	WAS	28	QB	16	15	321	494	3419	3762	7.6	1655	5.2	3.4	1764	5.5
20	Jared Goff	DET	27	QB	14	14	332	494	3245	3150	6.4	1490	4.5	3.0	1755	5.3
21	Jalen Hurts	PHI	23	QB	15	15	265	432	3144	3867	9.0	1681	6.3	3.9	1463	5.5
22	Russell Wilson*	SEA	33	QB	14	14	259	400	3113	3956	9.9	1730	6.7	4.3	1383	5.3
23	Teddy Bridgewater	DEN	29	QB	14	14	285	426	3052	3417	8.0	1658	5.8	3.9	1394	4.9
24	Baker Mayfield	CLE	26	QB	14	14	253	418	3010	3610	8.6	1632	6.5	3.9	1378	5.4
25	Lamar Jackson*	BAL	24	QB	12	12	246	382	2882	3543	9.3	1734	7.0	4.5	1148	4.7
26	Davis Mills	HOU	23	QB	13	11	263	394	2664	2852	7.2	1419	5.4	3.6	1245	4.7
27	Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	23	QB	13	12	263	388	2653	2734	7.0	1436	5.5	3.7	1217	4.6
28	Sam Darnold	CAR	24	QB	12	11	243	406	2527	2947	7.3	1151	4.7	2.8	1376	5.7
29	Daniel Jones	NYG	24	QB	11	11	232	361	2428	2616	7.2	1334	5.8	3.7	1094	4.7
30	Zach Wilson	NYJ	22	QB	13	13	213	383	2334	2900	7.6	1245	5.8	3.3	1089	5.1
31	Justin Fields	CHI	22	qb	12	10	159	270	1870	2641	9.8	1178	7.4	4.4	692	4.4
32	Andy Dalton	CHI	34	qb	8	6	149	236	1515	1620	6.9	763	5.1	3.2	752	5.0
33	Jacoby Brissett	MIA	29	qb	11	5	141	225	1283	1691	7.5	775	5.5	3.4	508	3.6
34	Jameis Winston	NOR	27	qb	7	7	95	161	1170	1340	8.3	589	6.2	3.7	581	6.1
35	Trevor Siemian	NOR	30	qb	6	4	108	188	1154	1298	6.9	652	6.0	3.5	502	4.6
36	Tyler Huntley	BAL	23	qb	7	4	122	188	1081	1409	7.5	635	5.2	3.4	446	3.7
37	Taysom Hill	NOR	31	qb	12	9	78	134	978	982	7.3	457	5.9	3.4	521	6.7
38	Tyrod Taylor	HOU	32	qb	6	6	91	150	966	1105	7.4	473	5.2	3.2	493	5.4
39	Mike White	NYJ	26	qb	4	3	88	132	953	777	5.9	387	4.4	2.9	566	6.4
40	Mike Glennon	NYG	32	qb	6	4	90	167	790	1212	7.3	383	4.3	2.3	407	4.5
41	Drew Lock	DEN	25	qb	6	3	67	111	787	1117	10.1	447	6.7	4.0	340	5.1
42	Colt McCoy	ARI	35	qb	8	3	74	99	740	522	5.3	288	3.9	2.9	452	6.1
43	Geno Smith	SEA	31	qb	4	3	65	95	702	669	7.0	342	5.3	3.6	360	5.5
44	Cam Newton	CAR	32	qb	8	5	69	126	684	880	7.0	375	5.4	3.0	309	4.5
45	Josh Johnson	2TM	35		4	1	57	85	638	616	7.2	355	6.2	4.2	283	5.0
46	Trey Lance	SFO	21	qb	6	2	41	71	603	658	9.3	315	7.7	4.4	288	7.0
47	Tim Boyle	DET	27	qb	5	3	61	94	526	589	6.3	261	4.3	2.8	265	4.3
48	Case Keenum	CLE	33	qb	7	2	47	72	462	417	5.8	156	3.3	2.2	306	6.5
49	Gardner Minshew II	PHI	25	qb	4	2	41	60	439	333	5.6	164	4.0	2.7	275	6.7
50	Cooper Rush	DAL	28	qb	5	1	30	47	422	418	8.9	209	7.0	4.4	213	7.1

 

At 9.0 average, Hurts is behind only Lock, Wilson, Fields, Lance and Jackson. I'm guessing this isn't what you were hoping to find. Lock and Lance benefit from a small sample size. But Hurts, last season, looked to throw further than the average QB. One could reasonably argue that he could increase his completion percentage by looking for checkdowns more often. But the idea that he somehow is near the lead in passes near the LOS is obviously false. 

Okay, but you'd have to consider that some of these QBs had as many completions as he did total passing attempts. If a Quarterback (like Herbert, for example) had 200+ more passing attempts, the number you've illustrated comes out to be skewed. 

If you go by total intended yards, Hurts would rank about 19th, ahead of the rookies, Lamar (who only played 12 games), Baker (who had a torn labrum), etc. Not as bad as I would've thought, but pretty poor.

[Swoop]

By the way, the Eagles were 4th in screens called and Hurts ranked 5th at 27.1% of his throws coming at or behind the line of scrimmage. There was an entire article based on it. Granted, the season wasn't quite done when it was released (mid December) but you get the idea. 

[brkmsn]

17 minutes ago, Swoop said:

By the way, the Eagles were 4th in screens called and Hurts ranked 5th at 27.1% of his throws coming at or behind the line of scrimmage. There was an entire article based on it. Granted, the season wasn't quite done when it was released (mid December) but you get the idea. 

Ranked 5th in which direction? The numbers I showed you would suggest the opposite of what you are implying. 

[Swoop]

37 minutes ago, brkmsn said:

Ranked 5th in which direction? The numbers I showed you would suggest the opposite of what you are implying. 

5th most in the league. 

[brkmsn]

1 hour ago, Swoop said:

5th most in the league. 

I'm guessing this is the article you are referencing. It's actually a pretty interesting read. It's hard to find a stat site that breaks passes down by distance to add clarity to this discussion. But that article gives us something (through week 13). It also show's percentages in comparison for 20+ yard passes where the Eagles ranked high as well. Both Rodgers and Mahomes threw behind the LOS about 30% of the time at the time of the article. Hurts was up there at 27.1%. 

My biggest take from the article was that Jaws believes the biggest reason for today's higher QB completion percentages are due to the sheer number of screens offenses are running today. He also points out that today's CBs tend to be more "coverage" oriented as opposed to physical which is why offenses are relying more heavily on screens. 

[Swoop]

17 minutes ago, brkmsn said:

I'm guessing this is the article you are referencing. It's actually a pretty interesting read. It's hard to find a stat site that breaks passes down by distance to add clarity to this discussion. But that article gives us something (through week 13). It also show's percentages in comparison for 20+ yard passes where the Eagles ranked high as well. Both Rodgers and Mahomes threw behind the LOS about 30% of the time at the time of the article. Hurts was up there at 27.1%. 

My biggest take from the article was that Jaws believes the biggest reason for today's higher QB completion percentages are due to the sheer number of screens offenses are running today. He also points out that today's CBs tend to be more "coverage" oriented as opposed to physical which is why offenses are relying more heavily on screens. 

Screens are not inherently bad. They can be useful. Tom Brady has made a career off of drinking and dunking a lot. Having said that, when you're 26th in completion percentage despite being so high on the list in terms of frequency of screen/LoS passes, that's not good.

That's the crux of the original argument

[brkmsn]

3 minutes ago, Swoop said:

 has made a career off of drinking and dunking a lot.

For a minute there, I thought you brought Kerry Collins into the discussion. 

 

5 minutes ago, Swoop said:

Screens are not inherently bad. They can be useful. Tom Brady has made a career off of drinking and dunking a lot. Having said that, when you're 26th in completion percentage despite being so high on the list in terms of frequency of screen/LoS passes, that's not good.

That's the crux of the original argument

I would counter with this: 

Advanced Passing

 

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Air Yards

Accuracy

Pressure

Play Type

					Games		Passing
Rk	Player	Tm	Age	Pos	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	Bats	ThAwy	Spikes	Drops	Drop%	BadTh	Bad% ▲	OnTgt	OnTgt%
1	Joe Burrow	CIN	25	QB	16	16	366	520	4611	8	12	2	23	4.5%	54	10.7%	419	82.8%
2	Jimmy Garoppolo	SFO	30	QB	15	15	301	441	3810	5	11	3	23	5.4%	55	12.9%	348	81.5%
3	Jalen Hurts	PHI	23	QB	15	15	265	432	3144	11	22	2	22	5.4%	57	14.0%	319	78.2%
4	Kyler Murray*	ARI	24	QB	14	14	333	481	3787	10	19	0	16	3.5%	65	14.1%	367	79.4%
5	Matt Ryan	ATL	36	QB	17	17	375	560	3968	9	15	1	21	3.9%	79	14.5%	425	78.1%
6	Justin Herbert*	LAC	23	QB	17	17	443	672	5014	17	14	1	38	5.8%	96	14.6%	527	80.2%
7	Dak Prescott	DAL	28	QB	16	16	410	596	4449	10	11	0	28	4.8%	86	14.7%	452	77.3%
8	Derek Carr	LVR	30	QB	17	17	428	626	4804	10	21	3	26	4.3%	94	15.6%	466	77.4%
9	Ryan Tannehill	TEN	33	QB	17	17	357	531	3734	10	9	1	23	4.4%	83	15.9%	411	78.9%
10	Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	23	QB	13	12	263	388	2653	1	6	1	17	4.5%	62	16.3%	305	80.1%
11	Jacoby Brissett	MIA	29	qb	11	5	141	225	1283	1	6	1	17	7.8%	36	16.5%	158	72.5%
12	Jared Goff	DET	27	QB	14	14	332	494	3245	5	21	5	21	4.5%	77	16.5%	375	80.1%
13	Taylor Heinicke	WAS	28	QB	16	15	321	494	3419	9	8	3	18	3.7%	80	16.6%	365	75.6%
14	Teddy Bridgewater	DEN	29	QB	14	14	285	426	3052	9	20	0	13	3.2%	68	16.7%	316	77.8%
15	Kirk Cousins*	MIN	33	QB	16	16	372	561	4221	4	13	5	22	4.1%	93	17.1%	418	77.0%
16	Andy Dalton	CHI	34	qb	8	6	149	236	1515	7	8	1	9	4.0%	39	17.2%	162	71.4%
17	Davis Mills	HOU	23	QB	13	11	263	394	2664	11	13	2	12	3.2%	66	17.4%	287	75.7%
18	Josh Allen	BUF	25	QB	17	17	409	646	4407	16	32	0	35	5.7%	107	17.4%	459	74.8%
19	Mac Jones*	NWE	23	QB	17	17	352	521	3801	9	12	1	16	3.1%	90	17.7%	386	76.0%
20	Tom Brady*	TAM	44	QB	17	17	485	719	5316	8	13	2	32	4.5%	127	18.0%	531	75.4%
21	Aaron Rodgers*+	GNB	38	QB	16	16	366	531	4115	8	18	3	13	2.5%	93	18.2%	394	77.3%
22	Daniel Jones	NYG	24	QB	11	11	232	361	2428	5	12	1	19	5.5%	64	18.4%	265	76.1%
23	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	39		16	16	390	605	3740	13	6	2	30	5.0%	110	18.4%	451	75.5%
24	Sam Darnold	CAR	24	QB	12	11	243	406	2527	6	22	0	27	7.0%	71	18.5%	286	74.5%
25	Russell Wilson*	SEA	33	QB	14	14	259	400	3113	3	13	0	16	4.1%	72	18.6%	296	76.5%
26	Matthew Stafford	LAR	33	QB	17	17	404	601	4886	9	3	0	31	5.2%	111	18.6%	458	76.6%
27	Carson Wentz	IND	29	QB	17	17	322	516	3563	8	17	0	25	5.0%	94	18.8%	368	73.7%
28	Patrick Mahomes*	KAN	26	QB	17	17	436	658	4839	7	32	0	31	5.0%	118	18.8%	485	77.5%
29	Lamar Jackson*	BAL	24	QB	12	12	246	382	2882	9	7	4	18	4.9%	73	19.7%	272	73.3%
30	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	22	QB	17	17	359	602	3641	8	18	3	33	5.7%	119	20.5%	414	71.3%
31	Baker Mayfield	CLE	26	QB	14	14	253	418	3010	11	14	2	20	5.0%	84	20.9%	296	73.6%
32	Justin Fields	CHI	22	qb	12	10	159	270	1870	3	8	2	18	6.9%	57	21.9%	189	72.7%
33	Zach Wilson	NYJ	22	QB	13	13	213	383	2334	5	16	1	25	6.8%	87	23.8%	256	69.9%

 

Advanced Passing

 

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Air Yards

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Play Type

					Games		Passing
Rk	Player	Tm	Age	Pos	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	Bats	ThAwy	Spikes	Drops	Drop%	BadTh	Bad%	OnTgt	OnTgt% ▼
1	Joe Burrow	CIN	25	QB	16	16	366	520	4611	8	12	2	23	4.5%	54	10.7%	419	82.8%
2	Jimmy Garoppolo	SFO	30	QB	15	15	301	441	3810	5	11	3	23	5.4%	55	12.9%	348	81.5%
3	Justin Herbert*	LAC	23	QB	17	17	443	672	5014	17	14	1	38	5.8%	96	14.6%	527	80.2%
4	Jared Goff	DET	27	QB	14	14	332	494	3245	5	21	5	21	4.5%	77	16.5%	375	80.1%
5	Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	23	QB	13	12	263	388	2653	1	6	1	17	4.5%	62	16.3%	305	80.1%
6	Kyler Murray*	ARI	24	QB	14	14	333	481	3787	10	19	0	16	3.5%	65	14.1%	367	79.4%
7	Ryan Tannehill	TEN	33	QB	17	17	357	531	3734	10	9	1	23	4.4%	83	15.9%	411	78.9%
8	Jalen Hurts	PHI	23	QB	15	15	265	432	3144	11	22	2	22	5.4%	57	14.0%	319	78.2%
9	Matt Ryan	ATL	36	QB	17	17	375	560	3968	9	15	1	21	3.9%	79	14.5%	425	78.1%
10	Teddy Bridgewater	DEN	29	QB	14	14	285	426	3052	9	20	0	13	3.2%	68	16.7%	316	77.8%
11	Patrick Mahomes*	KAN	26	QB	17	17	436	658	4839	7	32	0	31	5.0%	118	18.8%	485	77.5%
12	Derek Carr	LVR	30	QB	17	17	428	626	4804	10	21	3	26	4.3%	94	15.6%	466	77.4%
13	Dak Prescott	DAL	28	QB	16	16	410	596	4449	10	11	0	28	4.8%	86	14.7%	452	77.3%
14	Aaron Rodgers*+	GNB	38	QB	16	16	366	531	4115	8	18	3	13	2.5%	93	18.2%	394	77.3%
15	Kirk Cousins*	MIN	33	QB	16	16	372	561	4221	4	13	5	22	4.1%	93	17.1%	418	77.0

 

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  • Data Usage Terms
•  When table is sorted, hide non-qualifiers for rate stats
• Glossary

Air Yards

Accuracy

Pressure

Play Type

					Games		Passing
Rk	Player	Tm	Age	Pos	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	Bats	ThAwy	Spikes	Drops	Drop% ▼	BadTh	Bad%	OnTgt	OnTgt%
1	Jacoby Brissett	MIA	29	qb	11	5	141	225	1283	1	6	1	17	7.8%	36	16.5%	158	72.5%
2	Sam Darnold	CAR	24	QB	12	11	243	406	2527	6	22	0	27	7.0%	71	18.5%	286	74.5%
3	Justin Fields	CHI	22	qb	12	10	159	270	1870	3	8	2	18	6.9%	57	21.9%	189	72.7%
4	Zach Wilson	NYJ	22	QB	13	13	213	383	2334	5	16	1	25	6.8%	87	23.8%	256	69.9%
5	Justin Herbert*	LAC	23	QB	17	17	443	672	5014	17	14	1	38	5.8%	96	14.6%	527	80.2%
6	Josh Allen	BUF	25	QB	17	17	409	646	4407	16	32	0	35	5.7%	107	17.4%	459	74.8%
7	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	22	QB	17	17	359	602	3641	8	18	3	33	5.7%	119	20.5%	414	71.3%
8	Daniel Jones	NYG	24	QB	11	11	232	361	2428	5	12	1	19	5.5%	64	18.4%	265	76.1%
9	Jimmy Garoppolo	SFO	30	QB	15	15	301	441	3810	5	11	3	23	5.4%	55	12.9%	348	81.5%
10	Jalen Hurts	PHI	23	QB	15	15	265	432	3144	11	22	2	22	5.4%	57	14.0%	319	78.2%

[RememberTheKoy]

Sure it did wonders for Hurts to have to throw a few passes to Jalen Reagor at or behidn the LOS for him to go and lose a few yards every time since the coaching staff was deadset on getting Reagor multiple designed touches per game.  

[Shalodeep]

7 hours ago, RememberTheKoy said:

Sure it did wonders for Hurts to have to throw a few passes to Jalen Reagor at or behidn the LOS for him to go and lose a few yards every time since the coaching staff was deadset on getting Reagor multiple designed touches per game.  

So those two screens to reagor a game prevented hurts from hitting 200 yards 9 times and a completion percentage ranked in the 20s?or not hitting 60% of his passes 7 times? Or not throwing for a touchdown 6 times? He has 9 games where here threw 1 or less touchdowns in  the 15 games he started. Or is it easy to have a scapegoat the whole fan base hates take the blame off your weak ass QB and his play

I love the bad throw% and what not being ranked so high. I have stated multiple times he is good at protecting the rock. But even being ranked high there and on target passes, his completion percentage is pretty bad. That's why it's cherry picking. It doesn't equate to anything on the field. it doesn't help the narrative overall to what everything else says. He wasn't good last year. Pro bowl alt to me is hilarious considering that anybody is a pro bowl alt at some point if everyone turns it down lol 

[brkmsn]

4 hours ago, Shalodeep said:

So those two screens to reagor a game prevented hurts from hitting 200 yards 9 times and a completion percentage ranked in the 20s?or not hitting 60% of his passes 7 times? Or not throwing for a touchdown 6 times? He has 9 games where here threw 1 or less touchdowns in  the 15 games he started. Or is it easy to have a scapegoat the whole fan base hates take the blame off your weak ass QB and his play

I love the bad throw% and what not being ranked so high. I have stated multiple times he is good at protecting the rock. But even being ranked high there and on target passes, his completion percentage is pretty bad. That's why it's cherry picking. It doesn't equate to anything on the field. it doesn't help the narrative overall to what everything else says. He wasn't good last year. Pro bowl alt to me is hilarious considering that anybody is a pro bowl alt at some point if everyone turns it down lol 

I'm pretty sure RTK was making a joke (not an argument) about Reagor. It's cool, though, how you thoroughly addressed it as a real argument.

You can reject all the advanced passing stats if you choose to since they don't all lead to the same conclusion you have. We understand why you would choose to do so. You're basically a one-trick pony that only posts about Jalen Hurts and you don't want to let down the 3-4 poster Hurts-hater-fan-club that "likes" all your replies. Regardless, I'll try to explain how Jalen Hurts ended the season with the completion percentage he had, despite what the evil advanced passing stats try to portray. We have the bad throw percentage and the on target percentage and the drop percentage. We also have throw-aways and spikes (all of which are true to all QBs, including those with higher completion percentages). What you won't see in offensive stats are good defensive plays. A defender also has the ability to affect the outcome of a play. That's why these 50/50 specialist WRs are a sought after commodity. That's what the Eagles had in Jeffery and what they thought they were getting with JJAW when they drafted him. With JJAW never panning-out, that's why they acquired AJ Brown and made him a rich man. They want a WR that wins the 50/50 battles so drives can be extended. 

A lot of things are going Hurts' way this offseason. He has been working on his passing mechanics in an effort to be more efficient and consistent as a passer. He returns with the same coaches and playbook he is familiar with. Our WR picture is much more clear and obvious. We have added a lot of talent to the defense that could translate into more opportunities for and less pressure on the offense. With all this, it will be disappointing if Hurts doesn't show statistical improvement. Everything is where you would want it to be and the expectation for young players is to get better with experience. I fully expect this to be the case with Hurts. IMO, it's the safe bet. There's always a chance that a player flops. We've seen other QBs crumble under pressure. The thing I don't understand is why some fans want to spend the entire offseason predicting  and sometimes even hoping for failure. It really does seem like it's all about winning an argument. 

[Shalodeep]

11 minutes ago, brkmsn said:

I'm pretty sure RTK was making a joke (not an argument) about Reagor. It's cool, though, how you thoroughly addressed it as a real argument.

You can reject all the advanced passing stats if you choose to since they don't all lead to the same conclusion you have. We understand why you would choose to do so. You're basically a one-trick pony that only posts about Jalen Hurts and you don't want to let down the 3-4 poster Hurts-hater-fan-club that "likes" all your replies. Regardless, I'll try to explain how Jalen Hurts ended the season with the completion percentage he had, despite what the evil advanced passing stats try to portray. We have the bad throw percentage and the on target percentage and the drop percentage. We also have throw-aways and spikes (all of which are true to all QBs, including those with higher completion percentages). What you won't see in offensive stats are good defensive plays. A defender also has the ability to affect the outcome of a play. That's why these 50/50 specialist WRs are a sought after commodity. That's what the Eagles had in Jeffery and what they thought they were getting with JJAW when they drafted him. With JJAW never panning-out, that's why they acquired AJ Brown and made him a rich man. They want a WR that wins the 50/50 battles so drives can be extended. 

A lot of things are going Hurts' way this offseason. He has been working on his passing mechanics in an effort to be more efficient and consistent as a passer. He returns with the same coaches and playbook he is familiar with. Our WR picture is much more clear and obvious. We have added a lot of talent to the defense that could translate into more opportunities for and less pressure on the offense. With all this, it will be disappointing if Hurts doesn't show statistical improvement. Everything is where you would want it to be and the expectation for young players is to get better with experience. I fully expect this to be the case with Hurts. IMO, it's the safe bet. There's always a chance that a player flops. We've seen other QBs crumble under pressure. The thing I don't understand is why some fans want to spend the entire offseason predicting  and sometimes even hoping for failure. It really does seem like it's all about winning an argument. 

You are my biggest fan on the board lol 

[Cochis_Calhoun]

On 7/2/2022 at 4:26 PM, eglz1 said:

The Big 12 is not exactly known for their stingy defenses.

Was that a knock on Mahomes, Mayfield or Murray?

Hurts completion percentage and ypa were well clear of anything Mahomes did in the Big 12.

Like I say give it 60 odd days and we'll know one way or the other, and either I'll agree that we need to move on or you lot will add another caveat or move the goalposts some more.

 

[Shalodeep]

50 minutes ago, Cochis_Calhoun said:

Was that a knock on Mahomes, Mayfield or Murray?

Hurts completion percentage and ypa were well clear of anything Mahomes did in the Big 12.

Like I say give it 60 odd days and we'll know one way or the other, and either I'll agree that we need to move on or you lot will add another caveat or move the goalposts some more.

 

Traits is the deciding factor here. Mahomes had all the tools to become elite, just needed coaching. Hurts was being compared to Tebow coming out of college.... We've discussed traits at nauseum at this point so I'll not go through listing them, but let's just say Hurts only does one thing better than Mahomes consistently and that's run. Mahomes negatives from college show their face from time to time still to this day and he still is always going to be in the MVP conversation. 

[eglz1]

3 hours ago, Cochis_Calhoun said:

Was that a knock on Mahomes, Mayfield or Murray?

Hurts completion percentage and ypa were well clear of anything Mahomes did in the Big 12.

Like I say give it 60 odd days and we'll know one way or the other, and either I'll agree that we need to move on or you lot will add another caveat or move the goalposts some more.

 

Well, Mayfield and Murray don't have much of a resume yet. Mahomes can be a freaking magician.

[ManchesterEagle]

19 hours ago, Swoop said:

Screens are not inherently bad. They can be useful. Tom Brady has made a career off of drinking and dunking a lot. Having said that, when you're 26th in completion percentage despite being so high on the list in terms of frequency of screen/LoS passes, that's not good.

That's the crux of the original argument

 

14 hours ago, RememberTheKoy said:

Sure it did wonders for Hurts to have to throw a few passes to Jalen Reagor at or behidn the LOS for him to go and lose a few yards every time since the coaching staff was deadset on getting Reagor multiple designed touches per game.  

 

1 hour ago, brkmsn said:

I'm pretty sure RTK was making a joke (not an argument) about Reagor. It's cool, though, how you thoroughly addressed it as a real argument.

You can reject all the advanced passing stats if you choose to since they don't all lead to the same conclusion you have. We understand why you would choose to do so. You're basically a one-trick pony that only posts about Jalen Hurts and you don't want to let down the 3-4 poster Hurts-hater-fan-club that "likes" all your replies. Regardless, I'll try to explain how Jalen Hurts ended the season with the completion percentage he had, despite what the evil advanced passing stats try to portray. We have the bad throw percentage and the on target percentage and the drop percentage. We also have throw-aways and spikes (all of which are true to all QBs, including those with higher completion percentages). What you won't see in offensive stats are good defensive plays. A defender also has the ability to affect the outcome of a play. That's why these 50/50 specialist WRs are a sought after commodity. That's what the Eagles had in Jeffery and what they thought they were getting with JJAW when they drafted him. With JJAW never panning-out, that's why they acquired AJ Brown and made him a rich man. They want a WR that wins the 50/50 battles so drives can be extended. 

A lot of things are going Hurts' way this offseason. He has been working on his passing mechanics in an effort to be more efficient and consistent as a passer. He returns with the same coaches and playbook he is familiar with. Our WR picture is much more clear and obvious. We have added a lot of talent to the defense that could translate into more opportunities for and less pressure on the offense. With all this, it will be disappointing if Hurts doesn't show statistical improvement. Everything is where you would want it to be and the expectation for young players is to get better with experience. I fully expect this to be the case with Hurts. IMO, it's the safe bet. There's always a chance that a player flops. We've seen other QBs crumble under pressure. The thing I don't understand is why some fans want to spend the entire offseason predicting  and sometimes even hoping for failure. It really does seem like it's all about winning an argument. 

What brkmsn says makes a lot of sense. So many people are assuming Hurts will be the same Hurts we had last year. Just another year in the same system and another year of experience should make him better. Combine that with adding a top 10 WR and there should be a noticeable difference (which won't necessarily mean he's the guy going forward)

And also the narrative about him not being able to beat good QBs should change as well if the D can actually make an impression on them with added talent.

Hurts did have a relatively high proportion of screen/los passes, but he didn't take many check downs. His YPA was actually okay to reflect that. I'm expecting with Brown and increased knowledge of the system, he should be up in the 63-65% range. 

[CouchKing]

I was actually impressed with the videos posted of all the TD passes Hurts threw that were called back for penalties.

If Hurts can get on the same page as the receivers and OLine, he could have a better year. 
 
Question I have is: Can Hurts beat the Cowboys?

 

[Bwestbrook36]

Well since he is finally done his 3 rookie seasons maybe he will hit the sophmore slump

[kentwo]

Everyone agrees that the offense with AJ is greatly improved over last year, so would it be good enough if Hurts only marginally improves? I think he would have a make a huge jump to prove he is the guy, a 12% jump in passing stats (3,500 yds and 18 pass TDs) wouldn't really settle much especially with the hype around the Oline and skill positions as well as the narrative that it is his first time in a consistent system, etc... 

I appreciate ITB's take on the situation over EEye as with all that has been spent on giving him what he needs, he has to really be a star and not just a marginally better QB. 

[Shalodeep]

On 7/3/2022 at 1:02 PM, brkmsn said:

 

You can reject all the advanced passing stats if you choose to since they don't all lead to the same conclusion you have.

You guys are literally rejecting the reality that up to this point those advanced stats haven't equated to breaking top 20 in any of the basic stats. There is no rejection. I say he protects the ball well which many of those stats show. I think it's comical you ignore everything else, literally all other evidence that he to this point has been embarrassingly bad as a passer. Elite runner no doubt, but a pretty bad thrower of the football. I like the addition of not only AJ, and some consistency at coach for the kid, but it's the kids skill set that I question. He may be 6"1, but he plays a short man's game. The best thing that could happen to this team is they remove the run option and let him grow as a QB, or fail as a QB versus this ridiculous limbo the team lives in right now. I have said I'd be okay with a 26/12 3600 63.5% season if he did it from the pocket because he was distributing the ball better. I expect more ints but only due to a higher volume of passes. There is only one poster on here I've read who wants him to fail. Many of us are just expecting him to due to everything he has shown us as a QB so far. He's not good at a lot of the fundamental plays and anticipation routes, and that's not going to cut it with an offensive roster that doesn't have many questions to it. Hopefully the defense gives him shorter fields and more opportunities this year. This is a team game, but the QB position is the most important position in sports. Can't be mad at fans who see less than mediocre passing for questioning if he is the guy

 

[Shalodeep]

And if your thought process is AJ will bail Hurts out of bad throws, then you are missing the point we are trying to make