1 minute ago, ManuManu said:

I love analytics, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to pretend a 7 point game in the fourth quarter wasn’t a close game based on "win probability.”

So analytics said GB never had more than a 20% chance of winning in the 2nd half….but it was close? Nope

15 minutes ago, DEagle7 said:

I think Burrow has an argument too with that sieve of an OL they have. Guy has been playing out of his mind in the second half. Any one of those 3 would be reasonable choices IMO. 

LMAO at the Burrow POOR BABY MVP talk. The guy was a complete joke the first 5 weeks. (as far as MVP goes) He fattened up in 2 games against bad teams.(Saints and Falcons) Burrow is a pro bowl player and a great QB. He is nowhere near Hurts in the MVP race. If he gets 5 votes it will be a miracle.

🤡 NOTHING SAYS MVP LIKE 6 PICKS vs PITTSBURGH IN A 1-1 SPLIT 🤡

Mahomes has a great team that has won 60 games and 8 playoff game the last 5 years. He has the 2nd best TE in NFL history (pushing for #1) and he has a top 5 all time Head coach who is an offensive innovator and a QB whisperer. GTFO with Mahomes as POOR BABY!

Hurts has more wins, a higher QB rating, and amazing rushing stats as well.  Brady had way more TDs and passing yards than Rodgers last year and got obliterated in the vote. Voters don't vote like its 1983 anymore.

An MVP vote today would be something like:

Hurts 34

Mahomes 9

Allen 4

Burrow 2

Rando local guy gets 1 vote from a clown (Parsons?)

1 hour ago, Mlodj said:

It could be a trap game.

Good to see you.  It’s been a while.  Hope you are well.

Yeah, these two guys are great WRs and make Mahomes look good

3 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

LMAO at the Burrow POOR BABY MVP talk. The guy was a complete joke the first 5 weeks. (as far as MVP goes) He fattened up in 2 games against bad teams.(Saints and Falcons) Burrow is a pro bowl player and a great QB. He is nowhere near Hurts in the MVP race. If he gets 5 votes it will be a miracle.

🤡 NOTHING SAYS MVP LIKE 6 PICKS vs PITTSBURGH IN A 1-1 SPLIT 🤡

Mahomes has a great team that has won 60 games and 8 playoff game the last 5 years. He has the 2nd best TE in NFL history (pushing for #1) and he has a top 5 all time Head coach who is an offensive innovator and a QB whisperer. GTFO with Mahomes as POOR BABY!

Hurts has more wins, a higher QB rating, and amazing rushing stats as well.  Brady had way more TDs and passing yards than Rodgers last year and got obliterated in the vote. Voters don't vote like its 1983 anymore.

Am MVP vote today would be something like:

Hurts 34

Mahomes 9

Allen 4

Burrow 2

Rando local guy gets 1 vote from a clown (Parsons?)

And this is the exact type of post that generates push back on Hurts. 

9 minutes ago, NCiggles said:

The only issue is that Buffalo's running game isn't good.  The Dolphins have a better running game.  I just wouldn't expect much from Hill or Waddle. 

If Wilson plays. There’s a chance he’s out tomorrow which means mostert. Who in recent weeks hasn’t looked very good and they’ve gone to Wilson more cause of it. Agree Buffalo’s running game isn’t great but singletary, Allen and cook have ran well before. in the last 4 weeks Buffalo has run for 171 yards, 164 yards, 132 yards and 102 yards. So they are running it better and more lately due to the Allen elbow injury. 

3 minutes ago, TorontoEagle said:

So analytics said GB never had more than a 20% chance of winning in the 2nd half….but it was close? Nope

All that means is that teams in that same situation win 4 out of 5 times. It doesn’t mean the game wasn’t close. 

I dont really know how win probability is calculated, so, I just go by the scoreboard to determine how close a game is

 

Is win probability purely statistics-driven? Or is it still influenced by betting favorites?

30 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

I think framing it as "scared" is a bit of a hyperbole, but there were concerns from various people here over those teams now having "the blueprint" in how to beat us following our loss to Tampa Bay in the Playoffs. 

Those teams all had really good ball carriers so I guess they thought they'd be most able to take advantage of our weakness. A weakness that they believed was somewhat unknown until then, apparently. I didn't agree with those concerns, but you can definitely find evidence of them from the moment that 1 replaced the 0 in the loss column.

FYP

Just now, ManuManu said:

All that means is that teams in that same situation win 4 out of 5 times. It doesn’t mean the game wasn’t close. 

Green Bay scored a flukey TD against our backup safety. After that, we went on a 10 play and 6:44 minute drive. To go with drives of 14 plays for 5:52 (FG) and 11 plays for 5:23 (TD) in the second half.

We ran all over them, at will and were in complete control all game. It wasn’t close

3 minutes ago, TorontoEagle said:

Yeah, these two guys are great WRs and make Mahomes look good

Again the offense flows through Kelce.

Hill got his panties in a bunch because there were games where he was targeted three times. He wanted out because of that. He was a piece of a cog, and he was not happy about being that.

They went out and got the best cogs they could find to replace him.

1 hour ago, HazletonEagle said:

 

I'm not DUM. I don't keep notes.  It's probably the same people all year.  But there's always numerous posts about how dangerous those other teams are and how they can beat us.

Should have added Jacksonville to that list too.

Don't know how some of you haven't noticed this defeatist attitude all season long.

I'm not saying I haven't noticed. I have criticized the run defense and still think it isn't great, but not once have I ever felt afraid of teams like the Colts.

I'm more so asking because I'm curious as to who thought Matt Ryan and co. was going to torch us

I am willing to listen to the history of MVP award winners who were the 4th best QB but got enough O-line pity votes to win.

Burrow's line is excellent, BTW, it just took about 2 weeks to gel. They just met each other and the NFL traded O-line practice for Goodell as Judge Judy.

13 sacks in 2 weeks and then only 22 in the next 11 weeks. They gave up 2 or less sacks in 8 of his 13 games.

 

3 minutes ago, pallidrone said:

Again the offense flows through Kelce.

Hill got his panties in a bunch because there were games where he was targeted three times. He wanted out because of that. He was a piece of a cog, and he was not happy about being that.

They went out and got the best cogs they could find to replace him.

Ya, Hill had no impact, lol

111 catches, 1239 yards and 9 TDs last year. Just a cog! Hahaha

 

Hill had 159 targets to Kelces 134 last year too

6 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

All that means is that teams in that same situation win 4 out of 5 times. It doesn’t mean the game wasn’t close. 

A lot of those win probability charts factor in point spreads, so they may not be purely based on statistical probability alone. 

For example, the one listed on Yahoo shows the Chiefs having a 79% win probability against Denver right after the game started. If it were based solely on statistical probability alone, it would have been 50/50.

5 minutes ago, TorontoEagle said:

And this is the exact type of post that generates push back on Hurts. 

Save this for the actual vote. Hurts is the clear and obvious MVP right now to anyone without a staggeringly pathetic bias.

Vegas betting lines say so but what does Vegas know compared to a troll bro on a message board?

1 minute ago, SkippyX said:

Save this for the actual vote. Hurts is the clear and obvious MVP right now to anyone without a staggeringly pathetic bias.

Vegas betting lines say so but what does Vegas know compared to a troll bro on a message board?

It’s not clear and obvious 

7 minutes ago, TorontoEagle said:

And this is the exact type of post that generates push back on Hurts. 

There's no legitimate "pushback" on Hurts.  Zero. 

The few questioning his performance this year either have agendas of their own or some sort of other bias.  

It's that simple.

 

JuJu had a 1426 and 7 year but shhh, it might hurt the fragile Dunning Kruger ego... just kidding, they can't adjust their thinking.

 

Just now, Ace Nova said:

There's no legitimate "pushback" on Hurts.  Zero. 

The few questioning his performance this year either have agendas of their own or some sort of other bias.  

It's that simple.

 

Wrong

6 minutes ago, Mike31mt said:

I dont really know how win probability is calculated, so, I just go by the scoreboard to determine how close a game is

 

Is win probability purely statistics-driven? Or is it still influenced by betting favorites?

There's no official source so it depends on whose chart you're using, but more often than not, they do factor in the pre-game and live-game point spreads, which means public sentiment is a large factor.

Just now, TorontoEagle said:

Ya, Hill had no impact, lol

111 catches, 1239 yards and 9 TDs last year. Just a cog! Hahaha

Where in any of my posts did I say he had NO impact? I am saying that the offense flows through Kelce and has always been that way.

19 minutes ago, TorontoEagle said:

I’ve argued this plenty this week….that pass to Smith was god awful, the only saving grace is the safety is a complete idiot

It wasn't god awful at all.  He had good placement on the ball.  The safety messed it up but it's not like he threw a terrible pass.  The safety could have hit Smith and maybe broken up the pass but I still would trust Smith to have a good chance at making the catch even if he was hit.    

14 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

I love analytics, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to pretend a 7 point game in the fourth quarter wasn’t a close game based on "win probability.”

There have only been two games, Arizona and Indy, where our opponent had the ball late in the fourth quarter with an opportunity to take the lead.  

Jacksonville was 8 points behind.

In the other one-score wins, Detroit and GB, they never saw the ball after making it close at the end of the game.

2 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

I am willing to listen to the history of MVP award winners who were the 4th best QB but got enough O-line pity votes to win.

Burrow's line is excellent, BTW, it just took about 2 weeks to gel. They just met each other and the NFL traded O-line practice for Goodell as Judge Judy.

13 sacks in 2 weeks and then only 22 in the next 11 weeks. They gave up 2 or less sacks in 8 of his 13 games.

Lol no they don't. They're ranked 28th in pass blocking by PFF. Garrett and Clowney had 6 pressures each in their last game. They're a bad pass blocking unit and just ok at run blocking. 

Burrow is clearly behind Mahomes and Hurts right now in MVP voting, but imo Burrow is #3 and rising. Doubt he catches up at this stage short of a meltdown by Hurts and Mahomes though.