TorontoEagle Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, ManuManu said: I love analytics, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to pretend a 7 point game in the fourth quarter wasn’t a close game based on "win probability.” So analytics said GB never had more than a 20% chance of winning in the 2nd half….but it was close? Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 15 minutes ago, DEagle7 said: I think Burrow has an argument too with that sieve of an OL they have. Guy has been playing out of his mind in the second half. Any one of those 3 would be reasonable choices IMO. LMAO at the Burrow POOR BABY MVP talk. The guy was a complete joke the first 5 weeks. (as far as MVP goes) He fattened up in 2 games against bad teams.(Saints and Falcons) Burrow is a pro bowl player and a great QB. He is nowhere near Hurts in the MVP race. If he gets 5 votes it will be a miracle. 🤡 NOTHING SAYS MVP LIKE 6 PICKS vs PITTSBURGH IN A 1-1 SPLIT 🤡 Mahomes has a great team that has won 60 games and 8 playoff game the last 5 years. He has the 2nd best TE in NFL history (pushing for #1) and he has a top 5 all time Head coach who is an offensive innovator and a QB whisperer. GTFO with Mahomes as POOR BABY! Hurts has more wins, a higher QB rating, and amazing rushing stats as well. Brady had way more TDs and passing yards than Rodgers last year and got obliterated in the vote. Voters don't vote like its 1983 anymore. An MVP vote today would be something like: Hurts 34 Mahomes 9 Allen 4 Burrow 2 Rando local guy gets 1 vote from a clown (Parsons?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattwill Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Mlodj said: It could be a trap game. Good to see you. It’s been a while. Hope you are well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TorontoEagle Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Yeah, these two guys are great WRs and make Mahomes look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TorontoEagle Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, SkippyX said: LMAO at the Burrow POOR BABY MVP talk. The guy was a complete joke the first 5 weeks. (as far as MVP goes) He fattened up in 2 games against bad teams.(Saints and Falcons) Burrow is a pro bowl player and a great QB. He is nowhere near Hurts in the MVP race. If he gets 5 votes it will be a miracle. 🤡 NOTHING SAYS MVP LIKE 6 PICKS vs PITTSBURGH IN A 1-1 SPLIT 🤡 Mahomes has a great team that has won 60 games and 8 playoff game the last 5 years. He has the 2nd best TE in NFL history (pushing for #1) and he has a top 5 all time Head coach who is an offensive innovator and a QB whisperer. GTFO with Mahomes as POOR BABY! Hurts has more wins, a higher QB rating, and amazing rushing stats as well. Brady had way more TDs and passing yards than Rodgers last year and got obliterated in the vote. Voters don't vote like its 1983 anymore. Am MVP vote today would be something like: Hurts 34 Mahomes 9 Allen 4 Burrow 2 Rando local guy gets 1 vote from a clown (Parsons?) And this is the exact type of post that generates push back on Hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, NCiggles said: The only issue is that Buffalo's running game isn't good. The Dolphins have a better running game. I just wouldn't expect much from Hill or Waddle. If Wilson plays. There’s a chance he’s out tomorrow which means mostert. Who in recent weeks hasn’t looked very good and they’ve gone to Wilson more cause of it. Agree Buffalo’s running game isn’t great but singletary, Allen and cook have ran well before. in the last 4 weeks Buffalo has run for 171 yards, 164 yards, 132 yards and 102 yards. So they are running it better and more lately due to the Allen elbow injury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ManuManu Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, TorontoEagle said: So analytics said GB never had more than a 20% chance of winning in the 2nd half….but it was close? Nope All that means is that teams in that same situation win 4 out of 5 times. It doesn’t mean the game wasn’t close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike31mt Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I dont really know how win probability is calculated, so, I just go by the scoreboard to determine how close a game is Is win probability purely statistics-driven? Or is it still influenced by betting favorites? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattwill Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 30 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said: I think framing it as "scared" is a bit of a hyperbole, but there were concerns from various people here over those teams now having "the blueprint" in how to beat us following our loss to Tampa Bay in the Playoffs. Those teams all had really good ball carriers so I guess they thought they'd be most able to take advantage of our weakness. A weakness that they believed was somewhat unknown until then, apparently. I didn't agree with those concerns, but you can definitely find evidence of them from the moment that 1 replaced the 0 in the loss column. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TorontoEagle Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, ManuManu said: All that means is that teams in that same situation win 4 out of 5 times. It doesn’t mean the game wasn’t close. Green Bay scored a flukey TD against our backup safety. After that, we went on a 10 play and 6:44 minute drive. To go with drives of 14 plays for 5:52 (FG) and 11 plays for 5:23 (TD) in the second half. We ran all over them, at will and were in complete control all game. It wasn’t close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pallidrone Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, TorontoEagle said: Yeah, these two guys are great WRs and make Mahomes look good Again the offense flows through Kelce. Hill got his panties in a bunch because there were games where he was targeted three times. He wanted out because of that. He was a piece of a cog, and he was not happy about being that. They went out and got the best cogs they could find to replace him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swoop Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 hour ago, HazletonEagle said: I'm not DUM. I don't keep notes. It's probably the same people all year. But there's always numerous posts about how dangerous those other teams are and how they can beat us. Should have added Jacksonville to that list too. Don't know how some of you haven't noticed this defeatist attitude all season long. I'm not saying I haven't noticed. I have criticized the run defense and still think it isn't great, but not once have I ever felt afraid of teams like the Colts. I'm more so asking because I'm curious as to who thought Matt Ryan and co. was going to torch us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I am willing to listen to the history of MVP award winners who were the 4th best QB but got enough O-line pity votes to win. Burrow's line is excellent, BTW, it just took about 2 weeks to gel. They just met each other and the NFL traded O-line practice for Goodell as Judge Judy. 13 sacks in 2 weeks and then only 22 in the next 11 weeks. They gave up 2 or less sacks in 8 of his 13 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TorontoEagle Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, pallidrone said: Again the offense flows through Kelce. Hill got his panties in a bunch because there were games where he was targeted three times. He wanted out because of that. He was a piece of a cog, and he was not happy about being that. They went out and got the best cogs they could find to replace him. Ya, Hill had no impact, lol 111 catches, 1239 yards and 9 TDs last year. Just a cog! Hahaha Hill had 159 targets to Kelces 134 last year too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
we_gotta_believe Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, ManuManu said: All that means is that teams in that same situation win 4 out of 5 times. It doesn’t mean the game wasn’t close. A lot of those win probability charts factor in point spreads, so they may not be purely based on statistical probability alone. For example, the one listed on Yahoo shows the Chiefs having a 79% win probability against Denver right after the game started. If it were based solely on statistical probability alone, it would have been 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, TorontoEagle said: And this is the exact type of post that generates push back on Hurts. Save this for the actual vote. Hurts is the clear and obvious MVP right now to anyone without a staggeringly pathetic bias. Vegas betting lines say so but what does Vegas know compared to a troll bro on a message board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TorontoEagle Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, SkippyX said: Save this for the actual vote. Hurts is the clear and obvious MVP right now to anyone without a staggeringly pathetic bias. Vegas betting lines say so but what does Vegas know compared to a troll bro on a message board? It’s not clear and obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Nova Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, TorontoEagle said: And this is the exact type of post that generates push back on Hurts. There's no legitimate "pushback" on Hurts. Zero. The few questioning his performance this year either have agendas of their own or some sort of other bias. It's that simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 JuJu had a 1426 and 7 year but shhh, it might hurt the fragile Dunning Kruger ego... just kidding, they can't adjust their thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TorontoEagle Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Ace Nova said: There's no legitimate "pushback" on Hurts. Zero. The few questioning his performance this year either have agendas of their own or some sort of other bias. It's that simple. Wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
we_gotta_believe Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, Mike31mt said: I dont really know how win probability is calculated, so, I just go by the scoreboard to determine how close a game is Is win probability purely statistics-driven? Or is it still influenced by betting favorites? There's no official source so it depends on whose chart you're using, but more often than not, they do factor in the pre-game and live-game point spreads, which means public sentiment is a large factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pallidrone Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, TorontoEagle said: Ya, Hill had no impact, lol 111 catches, 1239 yards and 9 TDs last year. Just a cog! Hahaha Where in any of my posts did I say he had NO impact? I am saying that the offense flows through Kelce and has always been that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCiggles Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 19 minutes ago, TorontoEagle said: I’ve argued this plenty this week….that pass to Smith was god awful, the only saving grace is the safety is a complete idiot It wasn't god awful at all. He had good placement on the ball. The safety messed it up but it's not like he threw a terrible pass. The safety could have hit Smith and maybe broken up the pass but I still would trust Smith to have a good chance at making the catch even if he was hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Eagle Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, ManuManu said: I love analytics, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to pretend a 7 point game in the fourth quarter wasn’t a close game based on "win probability.” There have only been two games, Arizona and Indy, where our opponent had the ball late in the fourth quarter with an opportunity to take the lead. Jacksonville was 8 points behind. In the other one-score wins, Detroit and GB, they never saw the ball after making it close at the end of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WentzFan11 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Hurts is having a great year. I still don’t think we should sign him long term, but that will probably happen if we win at least one playoff game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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