EMB Blog: 2022 Regular Season (and beyond?) - NO POLITICS

[e-a-g-l-e-s eagles!]

1 minute ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

What a slam dunk this pick has turned into. With all the stuff working for us this season, getting him for 2.5 more years on a rookie deal is gonna be huge 

 

Go Nate herbig at 4 

[e-a-g-l-e-s eagles!]

 

[LeanMeanGM]

1 minute ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Go Nate herbig at 4 

Nice to see Max Powers brother made it in the NFL

[LeanMeanGM]

Just now, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

 

oh my god, just F already 

[Iggles_Phan]

3 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

Sure, but the likelihood of tying a game (or winning by going for two) is going to come on offense. There could be a fluky defensive TD, but it's not likely. 

I think context matters. And in hindsight, every time the Packers made it a one score game, the Eagles did whatever they wanted and turned it into a two score game right away, until time ran out and they just kneeled up 7. The game wasn't as close as the box score says it was.

Close is close.  Win probability or whatever doesn't dictate 'close' to me.  Score matters.   And score with context.   What you are saying is correct.  The Eagles were able to execute when they absolutely had to against the Packers.  But... one slip up and we are talking about a very different potential outcome.   One bad snap, one missed hand-off, one tipped pass... it happens.    Music City Miracle... Miracle in Minneapolis.   99.9% of the time, games like that end and Buffalo or New Orleans wins.  But... the fact that only one play flipped the winner says that even before the 'miracle' happened, they were close games.  Close is what the scoreboard says, everything else is psychology and feelings.  Those matter, but not when it comes to fluke plays that can flip the game.   That's why the kneel down "victory formation" has become a regular part of the NFL now... to avoid that horrible ending in a close game.   Because it is close enough to lose if the team doesn't execute properly.

[e-a-g-l-e-s eagles!]

2 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

oh my god, just F already 

I am ready for an nfc South team to upset them in round one as odell has 1 catch for 7 yards 

[TorontoEagle]

3 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

They were by definition 'close', because the team could actually come back and win on a single play.   IF a team is within one score it is close.   There's no getting around that.

 

The Eagles have been very good in close games, but that doesn't mean that they haven't played in close games.   And if it gets close late... it is still a close game.   Now, if a team is up 2 possessions and the other team scores on the final play of the game... then that game 'wasn't as close' as the score says.   But, if a team has to seal the deal with a 4 minute drill to eat up the clock while holding on to a one score lead... that's a close game.   If a team has to score at the end of the game to make it a two possession game, that too is a close game, because all it takes is one badly timed turnover to flip the game on its head.  

 

A game that is not close cannot be flipped by a single play.  A game that is close can be.   That doesn't mean it always happens, but the fact that there's a CHANCE for that... makes it close.

GB kicked a FG with 1:08 left. Onside kick (super low probability of recovery) failed. 
 

Eagles rush 3 times for first down and end the game. To give them 363 yards rushing on the day, which is about as dominating a stat you’ll see. Considering how great our turnover rate has been as a team this year, Green Bay had the most minuscule of chances of just tying the game. They weren’t close. 

[Iggles_Phan]

4 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

 

Jerry noticed that the Cowboys weren't getting enough press... 

[LeanMeanGM]

2 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Close is close.  Win probability or whatever doesn't dictate 'close' to me.  Score matters.   And score with context.   What you are saying is correct.  The Eagles were able to execute when they absolutely had to against the Packers.  But... one slip up and we are talking about a very different potential outcome.   One bad snap, one missed hand-off, one tipped pass... it happens.    Music City Miracle... Miracle in Minneapolis.   99.9% of the time, games like that end and Buffalo or New Orleans wins.  But... the fact that only one play flipped the winner says that even before the 'miracle' happened, they were close games.  Close is what the scoreboard says, everything else is psychology and feelings.  Those matter, but not when it comes to fluke plays that can flip the game.   That's why the kneel down "victory formation" has become a regular part of the NFL now... to avoid that horrible ending in a close game.   Because it is close enough to lose if the team doesn't execute properly.

I was told the Cardinals game that was tied within the 2 minute warning wasn't a close game. I'm not conceding. 

[Iggles_Phan]

3 minutes ago, TorontoEagle said:

GB kicked a FG with 1:08 left. Onside kick (super low probability of recovery) failed. 
 

Eagles rush 3 times for first down and end the game. To give them 363 yards rushing on the day, which is about as dominating a stat you’ll see. Considering how great our turnover rate has been as a team this year, Green Bay had the most minuscule of chances of just tying the game. They weren’t close. 

What if they had fumbled on any of those carries?   Yes... it was a dominating RUNNING performance on the day, and they continued that domination right up until the end.  BUT... how terrible would it have been if they had had that one turnover at the worst possible time on that drive?   They were close enough that they couldn't get sloppy, even in that moment... and they couldn't just kneel it down, even after the onside kick.   And the fact that there was an onside kick that they HAD to secure also points to the closeness of that game... probability isn't what I am discussing.  I am discussing whether or not a single play flips the W to an L.  And they were that close, whether you like it or not.

[TorontoEagle]

4 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Close is close.  Win probability or whatever doesn't dictate 'close' to me.  Score matters.   And score with context.   What you are saying is correct.  The Eagles were able to execute when they absolutely had to against the Packers.  But... one slip up and we are talking about a very different potential outcome.   One bad snap, one missed hand-off, one tipped pass... it happens.    Music City Miracle... Miracle in Minneapolis.   99.9% of the time, games like that end and Buffalo or New Orleans wins.  But... the fact that only one play flipped the winner says that even before the 'miracle' happened, they were close games.  Close is what the scoreboard says, everything else is psychology and feelings.  Those matter, but not when it comes to fluke plays that can flip the game.   That's why the kneel down "victory formation" has become a regular part of the NFL now... to avoid that horrible ending in a close game.   Because it is close enough to lose if the team doesn't execute properly.

You say this, then proceed to ignore the entire context of the game. Odd

[Connecticut Eagle]

5 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Close is close.  Win probability or whatever doesn't dictate 'close' to me.  Score matters.   And score with context.   What you are saying is correct.  The Eagles were able to execute when they absolutely had to against the Packers.  But... one slip up and we are talking about a very different potential outcome.   One bad snap, one missed hand-off, one tipped pass... it happens.    Music City Miracle... Miracle in Minneapolis.   99.9% of the time, games like that end and Buffalo or New Orleans wins.  But... the fact that only one play flipped the winner says that even before the 'miracle' happened, they were close games.  Close is what the scoreboard says, everything else is psychology and feelings.  Those matter, but not when it comes to fluke plays that can flip the game.   That's why the kneel down "victory formation" has become a regular part of the NFL now... to avoid that horrible ending in a close game.   Because it is close enough to lose if the team doesn't execute properly.

So now it's "Horseshoes, hand grenades, AND scoreboards"?

[LeanMeanGM]

10 minutes ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

What a slam dunk this pick has turned into. With all the stuff working for us this season, he’s getting hella overshadowed

 

Maybe it's just me, but this feels silly. Dickerson hasn't been bad but it doesn't seem like he's been Top 3 in both, especially passing. I think he was better last year.

[Iggles_Phan]

2 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

I was told the Cardinals game that was tied within the 2 minute warning wasn't a close game. I'm not conceding. 

Who made that declaration?

If tied isn't close then I don't know what is.    The Cardinals had a FG attempt to tie it right at the end as well... lucky for us they missed.   Dicker the Kicker FTW!  Ammendola FTL.

[Iggles_Phan]

2 minutes ago, TorontoEagle said:

You say this, then proceed to ignore the entire context of the game. Odd

No, I didn't.  One botched snap, one fumble and the Eagles might have lost that game.  Hence its 'closeness'.  It isn't like the Eagles could even kneel down after they secured the onside kick.  They still had to execute and get a first down... which happily they did.  But it was required to secure the victory.  #close

[TorontoEagle]

1 minute ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Who made that declaration?

If tied isn't close then I don't know what is.    The Cardinals had a FG attempt to tie it right at the end as well... lucky for us they missed.   Dicker the Kicker FTW!  Ammendola FTL.

Yes, that was a close game, on that we can agree

[TorontoEagle]

Just now, Iggles_Phan said:

No, I didn't.  One botched snap, one fumble and the Eagles might have lost that game.  Hence its 'closeness'.  It isn't like the Eagles could even kneel down after they secured the onside kick.  They still had to execute and get a first down... which happily they did.  But it was required to secure the victory.  #close

You keep citing low probability plays as the only way they could’ve won. When that’s the case, it isn’t really close, and wasn’t the entire 2nd half 

[Iggles_Phan]

1 minute ago, TorontoEagle said:

Yes, that was a close game, on that we can agree

Thank goodness.   And it seems we can't agree on the Packers game.  And that's fine.   But, I can tell you that I was nervous right up until the end, right until they got that final first down to cement the victory.  

[e-a-g-l-e-s eagles!]

[Ace Nova]

19 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

I knew he reminded me of someone, I just couldn’t pin point it.  

[Iggles_Phan]

Just now, TorontoEagle said:

You keep citing low probability plays as the only way they could’ve won. When that’s the case, it isn’t really close, and wasn’t the entire 2nd half 

You keep citing probability.  As I've said, close to me has everything to do with being able to lose on a single play.   Not close means that you have a safety cushion in the lead so that if a fluky play does happen, you are still secure in the lead.   9 points at the end... not close.   6 points at the end... close.    7 or 8... still close, but less close, because 7 means you are really only 1 play from being tied... 8 meaning two plays... one fluke and then the 2 point.   

[TorontoEagle]

For coach of the year, it appears Sirianni is currently odds on favorite.

If Dan Campbell turns around the Lions who started 1-6 and makes the playoffs, he’ll be a strong contender.

Does Shanny enter the picture if they get the 2 seed? Down to his 3rd string QB and they just keep winning (though I don’t think they’re as good as they’ve looked)

Any other candidates? Maybe the dude in Miami but they’ve sputtered lately so I think he’s out of it

[ManuManu]

28 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

They were by definition 'close', because the team could actually come back and win on a single play.   IF a team is within one score it is close.   There's no getting around that.

 

The Eagles have been very good in close games, but that doesn't mean that they haven't played in close games.   And if it gets close late... it is still a close game.   Now, if a team is up 2 possessions and the other team scores on the final play of the game... then that game 'wasn't as close' as the score says.   But, if a team has to seal the deal with a 4 minute drill to eat up the clock while holding on to a one score lead... that's a close game.   If a team has to score at the end of the game to make it a two possession game, that too is a close game, because all it takes is one badly timed turnover to flip the game on its head.  

 

A game that is not close cannot be flipped by a single play.  A game that is close can be.   That doesn't mean it always happens, but the fact that there's a CHANCE for that... makes it close.

I can’t believe we have to have a Blog definition of what close is. 

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, TorontoEagle said:

For coach of the year, it appears Sirianni is currently odds on favorite.

If Dan Campbell turns around the Lions who started 1-6 and makes the playoffs, he’ll be a strong contender.

Does Shanny enter the picture if they get the 2 seed? Down to his 3rd string QB and they just keep winning (though I don’t think they’re as good as they’ve looked)

Any other candidates? Maybe the dude in Miami but they’ve sputtered lately so I think he’s out of it

Pete Carroll might get some run.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

Who else remembers the argument that even if Landon Dickerson goes on to have a Hall of Fame career for the Eagles, it was still a bad pick early in round two because he had been injured so often in college and that was a risk a four win team should not be taking?

I certainly do.