I decided to let AI settle this argument so we can be done. 🤣

😉

1 minute ago, jojodancer said:

I decided to let AI settle this argument so we can be done. 🤣

😉

There was never really a debate... Just me being right and told Im wrong as is often the case.

Stowers is wearing 87

I always remembered it being a year also but I think that’s normally before the draft happens. After June 1st the pick will technically be this upcoming year for draft purposes.

Just now, DaBirds said:

I always remembered it being a year also but I think that’s normally before the draft happens. After June 1st the pick will technically be this upcoming year for draft purposes.

Not in this case. We just had the 2026 draft. They're talking about a 2028 1st for AJ. Not a 2027.

Thats horrible but people are pretending its good.

@e-a-g-l-e-s eagles!

You have ASU connections, right? Why didn’t Weru play for Arizona State?

Bernard's chances of hitting increased dramatically with #93

6 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

It doesnt matter that he says he is a member of the philadelphia eagles.

It matters that Howie wants to keep talent on the team. Not make talent a hypothetical vision that can be attained 2 years down the road....

If a team offered a 1st this year, Howie would take it in a heart beat. Why do you think it might be that a team would offer a next year 1st vs a current 1st? Ill give you a hint. Its because future picks are not valued the same as current picks. Its always been that way, and we all used to know that. Now that Howie might just get a future 1st, I guess we were supposed to pretend that was never the case. I didnt get the memo to act clueless.

https://overthecap.com/discounting-of-future-nfl-draft-picks

Discounting Of Future NFL Draft Picks

Posted on April 30, 2024 by Jason Fitzgerald

We had a little discussion over the last few days about discounting of future draft picks. The consensus is that in the NFL when a team trades up and includes a future pick that pick should be discounted by a full round (i.e a 2^nd round pick in 2025 would be valued as a 3^rd round pick) due to the uncertainty of the future.

Interesting you stopped the quote there. Because the very next sentence:

I personally have never subscribed to that belief since a 2^nd round pick regardless of when you get it is always going to be more valuable than a 3^rd rounder.

Because, like a said, a first rounder is a first rounder is a first rounder.

Then they say:

Draft to Draft Changes

This is the main reason that I hear about discounting the draft pick.

I also said this is the one difference, you don't know the talent pool in the next year. This year was especially thin since kids who would have opted to be eligible for the draft but projected to be a middle to late pick stayed due to NIL money

But back to my main point, the article agrees with me there too:

Where Will a Future Pick Land?

This is a great question as we have no idea. Chicago got super lucky this year when the Panthers completely imploded in 2023. The Cardinals on the other hand did not since the Texans qualified for the playoffs in 2023. Here are the results of the teams change in wins based on four win ranges for teams.

If you trade a current pick for a future pick in the same round, you have no guarantee of value. Getting a pick back that is a round higher ensures the team that is trading it away gets that value. You are completely insulated from the performance of that team.

Overall

I won’t get into the soft factors related to budget or anything like that but I can’t see the evidence of dropping a pick a full round based on the evidence. Drafts are more less equal in talent from year to year.

A first is a first is a first.

HE just doesnt know ball

Just now, ToastJenkins said:

HE just doesnt know ball

He did a good job with the draft stuff this year. But he always struggles with FO type things.

Michael Jordan is at camp.

4 minutes ago, BigEFly said:

@e-a-g-l-e-s eagles!

You have ASU connections, right? Why didn’t Weru play for Arizona State?

I have university of Arizona connections. Not so much asu. I can get a nugget here or there cause of my Arizona connections here something. I know Weru was enrolled at ASU and he was actually playing intermural flag football at ASU. I believe IPP was helping him transition to the states and letting him train.

Interesting

HE can be stubborn and say in the past teams devalue draft picks by a full round and he’d be directionally correct.

However…

Howie has said this is a market inefficiency and being patient will give you the better value in the end. The Jets were offered a 26 1 and a 27 2 for Quinnen Williams, but countered that by requesting a 27 1 and a 26 2. Why? They believed the 2027 1 was more valuable in their eyes due to the QB class. That happened in real life. The Jaguars discussed a trade during this year’s draft that would have gotten them a late 2026 1 AND a day 2 pick (didn’t specify what year but I assume 27) for their 2027 1. Why? Because it was a late 1 and they believed the quality of the draft wasn’t as good so they should actually get a kick back despite trading into this year.

26 minutes ago, paco said:

Interesting you stopped the quote there. Because the very next sentence:

Because, like a said, a first rounder is a first rounder is a first rounder.

Then they say:

I also said this is the one difference, you don't know the talent pool in the next year. This year was especially thin since kids who would have opted to be eligible for the draft but projected to be a middle to late pick stayed due to NIL money

But back to my main point, the article agrees with me there too:

If you trade a current pick for a future pick in the same round, you have no guarantee of value. Getting a pick back that is a round higher ensures the team that is trading it away gets that value. You are completely insulated from the performance of that team.

A first is a first is a first.

It's not that interesting. The guy started with the consensus and then the rest was his opinion. Reading ia fundamental...

You guys all shared your opinions too. I gave the facts.

24 minutes ago, ToastJenkins said:

HE just doesnt know ball

It's amazing how much it looks like someone doesnt know when surrounded by people who are wrong but think they're right.

24 minutes ago, paco said:

He did a good job with the draft stuff this year. But he always struggles with FO type things.

Can't even say I did a good job. I just made opinions on a lot of players.

Now for years I'll hear about the ones I got wrong and we will all ignore the ones I got right.

It begins

8 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

HE can be stubborn and say in the past teams devalue draft picks by a full round and he’d be directionally correct.

However…

Howie has said this is a market inefficiency and being patient will give you the better value in the end. The Jets were offered a 26 1 and a 27 2 for Quinnen Williams, but countered that by requesting a 27 1 and a 26 2. Why? They believed the 2027 1 was more valuable in their eyes due to the QB class. That happened in real life. The Jaguars discussed a trade during this year’s draft that would have gotten them a late 2026 1 AND a day 2 pick (didn’t specify what year but I assume 27) for their 2027 1. Why? Because it was a late 1 and they believed the quality of the draft wasn’t as good so they should actually get a kick back despite trading into this year.

Again, you can argue the 2027 draft will be better than this one was. We dont know, but teams are banking on that. Still besides the point because we are now talking about a 2028 pick for AJ. Howies not even getting that 2027 pick.

Unless he does the right thing and takes the 2027 2nd.

1 minute ago, Sack that QB said:

It begins

Looks like an instant pro bowl for him.

23 minutes ago, pgcd3 said:

Lots of DBs. Howie mining those sources. Right now, I think he has more DBs/Ss than any other position on the roster. Holdovers Hollin Pierce and Gabe Hall are there.

49 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

It doesnt matter that he says he is a member of the philadelphia eagles.

It matters that Howie wants to keep talent on the team. Not make talent a hypothetical vision that can be attained 2 years down the road....

If a team offered a 1st this year, Howie would take it in a heart beat. Why do you think it might be that a team would offer a next year 1st vs a current 1st? Ill give you a hint. Its because future picks are not valued the same as current picks. Its always been that way, and we all used to know that. Now that Howie might just get a future 1st, I guess we were supposed to pretend that was never the case. I didnt get the memo to act clueless.

https://overthecap.com/discounting-of-future-nfl-draft-picks

Discounting Of Future NFL Draft Picks

Posted on April 30, 2024 by Jason Fitzgerald

We had a little discussion over the last few days about discounting of future draft picks. The consensus is that in the NFL when a team trades up and includes a future pick that pick should be discounted by a full round (i.e a 2^nd round pick in 2025 would be valued as a 3^rd round pick) due to the uncertainty of the future.

I think the Eagles look at it differently. I don't know that teams are right to value it that way.