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EMB Blog: 2021 Offseason

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33 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

This is why it's so hard to get excited about having 4 picks inside the top 100 for 2021 and potentially 4 1st round picks over the next 2 years.  I have ZERO faith in this organization to do the right thing with any of the picks.

Everyone always gets excited and puts extra stress on draft picks. And if you're a team like say a Baltimore, Pittsburgh, or Tampa Bay who has drafted well, it's even more important. But for this team it really doesn't matter. They haven't done anything in the past 9-10 years other than a pick or two to make you think that they are able to put together a good class. It's why whenever trades come up people get so offended about giving up a first round pick for a talent, I've never really cared because I know that it's less than a crapshoot for this organization to actually draft the right player. 

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18 minutes ago, austinfan said:

BTC is bull. First of all, it's not free, consumes a tremendous amount of energy which will only becomes more costly as carbon taxes and other measures take hold. Second, there's no intrinsic value, it's the ultimate it's "worth what we say it's worth" asset. Third, it will be hacked in some way at some point.

Blockchain has real value as an accounting tool, cybercurrency is a speculative fad.

You're a smart guy. But you are so incredibly wrong on this topic

Always interesting to hear the sentiment of someone who is intelligent but knows little of Bitcoin 

You're welcome 

 

 

In Lurie's defense, I'd probably do the same thing if I were the owner.  

Well, not the exact same thing...I wouldn't have drafted JJAW or Hurts and we'd have 22 pro-bowlers by now.  But I'd similarly overreach with the coaching staff and drafts.

If Hurts sucks so what, we have 3 1’s next year to address it and we weren’t doing ish this season to begin with?

30 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

Reuben Frank, Adam Caplan, John McMullen, Jeff McLane and now Kapadia/Berman/Wulf. Probably more I'm missing. They all said Lurie want's his team to be a pass first offense.

I dont know.. it's hard to believe.  If these guys are so hung up on analytics doesnt the numbers show they are better when they run the ball more?  The year they won the SB they ran the ball quite a bit.  I cant believe that Lurie would think this way.  

11 minutes ago, austinfan said:

What will crack me up is if Hurts turns out to be a top half QB and Reagor puts up a 1000 yards next season.

Reagor might. 

Hurts? LOL!

33 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

Reuben Frank, Adam Caplan, John McMullen, Jeff McLane and now Kapadia/Berman/Wulf. Probably more I'm missing. They all said Lurie want's his team to be a pass first offense.

Then why draft Hurts and JJAW?

47 minutes ago, RLC said:

In today's NFL, you win by passing the ball.

False. 

Last years top 10 teams in run percentage had a combined record of 99-61, and 6 of those 10 teams went to the playoffs.

Last years bottom 10 teams in run percentage had a combined record of 72-88, and 5 of those 10 went to the playoffs.

 

34 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

Reuben Frank, Adam Caplan, John McMullen, Jeff McLane and now Kapadia/Berman/Wulf. Probably more I'm missing. They all said Lurie want's his team to be a pass first offense.

100% right.  That's been out there for awhile from alot of people.  That's what makes putting Hurts behind center so peculiar.

7 minutes ago, EricAllenPick6 said:

Sadly, I think the one who has the ultimate say in drafting is Jeff Lurie.  People here are blaming Howie for bad drafts.  What we don't know is that Howie is only the shadow GM.  The real GM is Jeff Lurie.  Can't fire the owner.  

See above.  If I'm right about Jeff Lurie being the one really in charge of drafting, player acquisition, etc. then firing Howie won't do a darn thing.  

Worse thought: Siri was a hire that came out of nowhere for most of us. He makes a lot more sense after hearing about this.   Siri is a person that is easy for Jeff to control.  Somebody that won't push back on Jeff's will too much.  Why didn't we pick Bienemy?  Well, maybe he would have been harder to control...

Bienemy hasnt been picked by anyone the last 2 offseasons.  It's not just us.  Maybe there is another reason....

It’s not a central server , you’re not hacking it . Better chance of hacking accounts at coinbase or binance , but many just purchase through them and move coins  to their own wallet 

Just saw that body cam footage of the killing of Daunte Wright.  Who in the hell was that officer thinking?  Says she is going to taser and then fires her pistol point blank. Did she not know the difference between the taser and a sidearm???

 

1 minute ago, eagle45 said:

Then why draft Hurts and JJAW?

I genuinely believe they think they are smarter than everyone else and drafted Hurts just to be a cheap backup who could play a game or two and win with his legs, but never intended on him being the starter. There's too much smoke after trading Wentz about them trying to move up for Wilson/trading for Watson to make believe they ever thought of Hurts as anything more than a backup.

JJAW who the hell knows. 

4 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

Then why draft Hurts and JJAW?

You may be able to come up for JJAW reasoning.  Even though he has flopped epically, he had some decent tape from college going up strong for the ball.

Hurts?  Not a chance for a passing offense.  It was too early to draft a backup....and the wrong one to fit into the offensive design.

1 minute ago, LeanMeanGM said:

I don't think you need top 3 but you certainly need top 10 if you want to actually win it all. The league has evolved too much into a high octane offensive first game that you can't just be an average QB and rely on a defensive dynasty because they just don't exist anymore. 

On a somewhat related note, I also think the idea of a "franchise QB" in the likes of Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers (basically any guy that will be the guy for the next decade plus) is coming to an end as well. There will be the exceptions like Mahomes, but I think their will be more fluidity to the position going forward.

Agree with this, which leads to the discussion of how good Hurts can be?  No one is asking him to be Mahomes.  Can he be better than 20 other quarterbacks in the NFL?

NFCE- Prescott, Jones, Fitzpatrick

NFCC- A-Rod, Goff, Cousins, Dalton

NFCW- Garoppollo, Stafford, Wilson, Murray

NFCS- Winston, Brady, Darnold, Ryan

AFCE- Newton, Allen, Tagovailoa, Jets (Wilson?)

AFCC- Mayfield, Burrow, Roethlisberger, Jackson

AFCS- Watson (if playing), Jags (Lawrence), Wentz, Tannehill 

AFCW- Mahomes, Carr, Lock, Herbert

I bolded quarterbacks who I think are clearly better than Hurts.  I'm not saying that Hurts is better than the rest but I think he has the potential to be better or on par with a lot of them.  I put Lawrence on the Jags and Wilson on the Jets as they seem to be the only 2 cemented right now.  This is also best case scenario hoping that Hurts improves.  I think he has some nice tools and a lot of the qualities you want in your starter but far from a great QB.

 

41 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

This is exactly what I said earlier.  People constantly say at least we don't have Jerry Jones.  I think we are closer to having Jerry Jones or worse run this team....and the Cowboys know how to draft.

These buffoons don't have a clue when it comes to drafting. 

The Cowboys haven’t won anything in a quarter century.

1 minute ago, TEW said:

The Cowboys haven’t won anything in a quarter century.

With Lurie's newfound desire to meddle in the draft, who knows when we will win again.  

1 minute ago, TEW said:

The Cowboys haven’t won anything in a quarter century.

They've been a consistently good football team because they draft well.   They have not won anything because that's pretty much all they do well.

56 minutes ago, greendestiny27 said:

To the point where this team needs to be boycotted until crap changes. Total joke 

I'd honestly love it if people put their money where their mouth is and just stopped paying attention to a team that is currently not bringing them joy. 

11 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

Then why draft Hurts and JJAW?

Hurts i think goes back to the Russell Wilson thing. They didn’t want to miss out on potentially Russell Wilson again 

39 minutes ago, austinfan said:

BTC is bull. First of all, it's not free, consumes a tremendous amount of energy which will only becomes more costly as carbon taxes and other measures take hold. Second, there's no intrinsic value, it's the ultimate it's "worth what we say it's worth" asset. Third, it will be hacked in some way at some point.

Blockchain has real value as an accounting tool, cybercurrency is a speculative fad.

The energy issues aren’t really issues. You can run the miners off of waste energy from traditional energy production which will actually help to offset any carbon taxes.

To the hacking, there are two issues. First, China has close to or over 50% of the miners. If they nationalized them all they could potentially mess with it. This is a real threat.

The second is quantum computers which are a long way out. That’s not an issue until it’s an issue. In any case they aren’t likely to be commercially viable for decades, so it’s really just state actors (like China or Russia) that pose risk.

In any case, I think BTC is a real asset at this point. Too many institutions are involved at this point to not take it seriously. Is it a good investment? Well, historically it’s the best performing asset in history on a risk adjusted basis. But then again past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. At this point having a small allocation is probably prudent if for no other reason than it’s lack of correlation with other assets.

This kind of overthinking BS is why it's hard to take increased use of analytics seriously. I can just imagine some statistics major pushing up his glasses saying, "Well, actually, Hopkins contributed a higher adjusted yards per play increase to his new team's performance in 2020 vs. 2019 than Tom Brady did." WHO WON THE F---ING SUPER BOWL

Other revelations from The Athletic article:

1. Before the 2017 season Lurie had a very long interview with Jim Schwartz that was interpreted by some internally that Lurie was already looking to replace Doug or that he was on a short leash. I think this matches up with the Mike Lombardi Doug-bashing articles around that time that were widely believed to have emanated from Schwartz's camp.

2. Lurie puts a lot of stock in the analysis of Warren Sharp (an analyst who constantly preaches that the formula for football success involves passing to get the lead and running as a situational component of protecting the lead) and hired him as a consultant. 

1 minute ago, Saltpeter said:

This kind of overthinking BS is why it's hard to take increased use of analytics seriously. I can just imagine some statistics major pushing up his glasses saying, "Well, actually, Hopkins contributed a higher adjusted yards per play increase to his team's performance in 2020 vs. 2019 that Tom Brady did." WHO WON THE F---ING SUPER BOWL

So does O’Brien or the cardinals get the award? 

14 minutes ago, downundermike said:

False. 

Last years top 10 teams in run percentage had a combined record of 99-61, and 6 of those 10 teams went to the playoffs.

Last years bottom 10 teams in run percentage had a combined record of 72-88, and 5 of those 10 went to the playoffs.

 

So we learned today who in the blog are bad at math.

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