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EMB Blog: 2021 Offseason


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2 hours ago, greend said:

I think you picked the wrong video. There were quite a few short first down and scoring runs

So? I can show a video of Greg Ward getting some first downs and scoring TD’s, it doesn’t make him a good receiver.
 

There were a lot more tackles where he lost yardage than positive plays. 

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2 hours ago, bpac55 said:

While Brent Celek certainly wasn't the matchup nightmare that Zach Ertz is/was, Celek was one hell of a traditional tight end and if I'm building a team while also considering player cost, I'm taking Celek almost every time.

Celek was never the volume receiving tight end that Ertz was.  There was a stretch where Ertz was the only player getting the ball and that shows.  What I find interesting is that Celek had nearly 160 less catches than Ertz yet only trails him by 5 TD.  He also averaged nearly 2 yards more per reception which is no surprise as Celek fought for every yard he could get while Ertz struggled with YAC.

    Receiving
Rk Player From To AV G Rec Yds TD Y/R Lng
1 Brent Celek 2007 2017 40 175 398 4998 31 12.6 73
2 Zach Ertz 2013 2020 48 117 561 6078 36 10.8 60

 

I'm not saying Celek is on Ertz's level.  He's not.  But big picture, when building a team, Celek is my guy.  The ultimate team player who produced when called upon.  He was more than capable of making the big play too.

Side note, what absolute dimes by Vick.

 

 

Yup. I would take celek over ertz every time. He may not have been the most athletic but he was extremely reliable, I think if he had a year where he was the only option he would've done more with it than ertz.

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It would be bad if the Eagles were expecting to be a 10 win team than needed a tweak or two to get over the top.

It would be good if it eliminates the temptation to throw money around in FA, forcing the team to play young players and build a young core for a future run. With limited cap money Eagles are limited to signing bargain basement veterans in 2022 on short-term deals, which is fine by me, a rebuild usually involves cycling through a lot of players (even with extra picks, they only have 5 picks next year in the top 100), 3rd day picks, UDFAs, SFAs, until you build roster depth. So you want veteran patches but not big commitments to guys who'll age out when the team is ready to compete again.

One of the things that kills a good rebuild is early success that the FO misinterprets as "job finished," when it's often just a fluke of random luck that impacts every season (injuries, bounces, ref calls). There is usually not a lot of difference between 6-10 and 10-6 which is why we see teams fluctuate year to year without a great change in talent. So being forced to continue to rebuild if the Eagles do play above expectations is actually a good thing.

2023 is my target year, maybe a year longer if Hurts flops and it takes a couple years to find a QB. You not only need to replace a lot of aging starters, but you need to have players behind the players - that is, injuries are inevitable, some players will end up being able to bargain for more money than they're worth (career year going into free agency), and so on. So you not only have to replace starters, but you need to build a critical mass of young backups with starter potential.

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8 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

So? I can show a video of Greg Ward getting some first downs and scoring TD’s, it doesn’t make him a good receiver.
 

There were a lot more tackles where he lost yardage than positive plays. 

I don't think there were honestly. Not on short yardage anyways. Just saying you used the wrong video to prove your point imo anyways.....................

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11 minutes ago, devpool said:

Yup. I would take celek over ertz every time. He may not have been the most athletic but he was extremely reliable, I think if he had a year where he was the only option he would've done more with it than ertz.

I loved Celek, and while he was a better blocker, I highly doubt if he "was the only option" he would have done more with it.

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43 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

Sure, every team has some dead cap, but that’s a ton for a year in advance. That’s really bad. 

On paper, yes.
However, IF we roll cap over (as we should), then the dead money is cancelled out by the cap savings...so it'd be like we took all their cap hits in 2021.

That said, I don't trust Howie to do that. Watch him do something stupid like sign Steven Nelson for 5M.

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1 hour ago, ManuManu said:

We have $5.6M now. Ertz’s cap number is $12.7M. When traded or cut, $4.2M in dead cap in 2021 and another $3.5M in 2022. So we’ll have $14M in 2021 cap space according to Spotrac. Of course $10.5M is to sign our rookie class too, which we haven’t done yet. 

So yeah, Howie opened up some space to sign our rookie class, while also tacking more money onto our 2022 cap figure. Great stuff. 

That's not what the NJ.com article says. Gonna be about 17M

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2 minutes ago, devpool said:

Yup. I would take celek over ertz every time. He may not have been the most athletic but he was extremely reliable, I think if he had a year where he was the only option he would've done more with it than ertz.

Ertz was a better player than Celek, Celek got a lot of catches because he was the 3rd or 4th option and defenses tended to ignore him. He was smart, tough and maximized his talent, but his strength was finding soft spots in a zone, but a team could shut him down by putting someone on him, his 5.0 speed and average agility made it hard for him to beat man coverage.

However, players like Celek is why you should always look for these sort of TEs late on the 3rd day/FA. Guys with limited athleticism, but smarts and toughness who can fill that backup role and be productive as a complementary piece in your offense. Which is why the Eagles gave Stoll the biggest payday of all their UDFAs - he's a more athletic version of Celek.

6'4  247  [4.68   1.64   16   4.29   6.93   31    9’11] [40 yard 10 yard reps SS Cone VT LJ]

Fell in the draft due to a knee injury that limited him as a senior after two solid seasons as a starter.

"He plays with good route speed, has soft hands and is a very physical run finisher. He lacks desired size and strength to be an in-line blocker, so he might need to work as an H-back. If he can prove himself as a blocker, he could find his way onto a roster."

He'll need to get stronger, but he'll never be a starter as an in-line TE, probably can't carry much more than 250 lbs or so. But he can be a guy who can fill in for a few snaps, move out as a H-back, and maybe even pick up the nuances of playing FB in power formations. Athletic enough to be a threat to a defense that ignores him.

Unlike the H-back candidates, who are going to be primarily receivers who hopefully can block in space, Stoll is a real TE.

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If they sign one of those capable vet FA corners out there after they trade Ertz then this team could contend for a wild card spot. 

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9 minutes ago, RememberTheKoy said:

If they sign one of those capable vet FA corners out there after they trade Ertz then this team could contend for a wild card spot. 

:roll:

:nonono:

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24 minutes ago, austinfan said:

Ertz was a better player than Celek, Celek got a lot of catches because he was the 3rd or 4th option and defenses tended to ignore him. He was smart, tough and maximized his talent, but his strength was finding soft spots in a zone, but a team could shut him down by putting someone on him, his 5.0 speed and average agility made it hard for him to beat man coverage.

However, players like Celek is why you should always look for these sort of TEs late on the 3rd day/FA. Guys with limited athleticism, but smarts and toughness who can fill that backup role and be productive as a complementary piece in your offense. Which is why the Eagles gave Stoll the biggest payday of all their UDFAs - he's a more athletic version of Celek.

6'4  247  [4.68   1.64   16   4.29   6.93   31    9’11] [40 yard 10 yard reps SS Cone VT LJ]

Fell in the draft due to a knee injury that limited him as a senior after two solid seasons as a starter.

"He plays with good route speed, has soft hands and is a very physical run finisher. He lacks desired size and strength to be an in-line blocker, so he might need to work as an H-back. If he can prove himself as a blocker, he could find his way onto a roster."

He'll need to get stronger, but he'll never be a starter as an in-line TE, probably can't carry much more than 250 lbs or so. But he can be a guy who can fill in for a few snaps, move out as a H-back, and maybe even pick up the nuances of playing FB in power formations. Athletic enough to be a threat to a defense that ignores him.

Unlike the H-back candidates, who are going to be primarily receivers who hopefully can block in space, Stoll is a real TE.

I said it in a long post yesterday but the Eagles have dug themselves a hole at TE.  We very well could go from having Ertz and Goedert to neither of them next year with no one waiting in the wings to take over.  I feel this was a solid tight end draft class in the first 4 rounds.  I think the Jets got an absolute steal by getting Kenny Yeboah as an UDFA.  I thought he was a fringe 3rd-4th round player, a poor mans Kyle Pitts.

Just because of the market, Goedert is going to get over $10 million/year and I'm sure he's looking for the $12-$12 million/year range.  I have a hard time paying him that money but they almost have to because they have nothing.  Sorry, I'm not counting on Tyree Jackson or Hakeem Butler to break out....although I would love Jackson to be the next Logan Thomas.

Look at this 2022 Tight End free agent class.  HOLY STACKED.  Goedert would be silly to sign any extension with the Eagles before free agency.  The market for tight ends next spring is going to be sky high.  These guys are going to get PAID.

Mark Andrews, Dallas Goedert, Mike Gesicki, David Njoku, OJ Howard, Hayden Hurst, Evan Ingram, Gerald Everett.  Those are just the young guys under 28.  You then have Ertz (32), Gronk (33) and even Jimmy Graham (36) who could still command high end contracts.

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54 minutes ago, greend said:

I don't think there were honestly. Not on short yardage anyways. Just saying you used the wrong video to prove your point imo anyways.....................

He averaged 0.6 YPC in short yardage situations and 1.2 YPC overall in real life and in that video. Nothing about any of that is good. That alone proves he was stopped for no gain or behind the LOS more often than not. Even in the video they had to do 3 straight rushes from the 1 to get a score against the Patriots. 

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5 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

He averaged 0.6 YPC in short yardage situations and 1.2 YPC overall in real life and in that video. Nothing about any of that is good.

Maybe bring up the highlights of the season before when he was with us. Seams to be some really good runs in there. Its all about scheme fit and yes the oline blocking for you. One misconception is Jordan is a power back. He is not. Hes a one cut back. Again Scheme. 

 

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51 minutes ago, RLC said:

On paper, yes.
However, IF we roll cap over (as we should), then the dead money is cancelled out by the cap savings...so it'd be like we took all their cap hits in 2021.

That said, I don't trust Howie to do that. Watch him do something stupid like sign Steven Nelson for 5M.

How much cap space can we expect to roll over? We’ll have like $5M after signing our rookies. That won’t cover our dead cap next year. 

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People seem to combine early Celek with later Celek. When he was a pretty good receiver, he wasn’t a good blocker. When he was a good blocker, he no longer was a pretty good receiver. 

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Just now, DeathByEagle said:

Maybe bring up the highlights of the season before when he was with us. Seams to be some really good runs in there. Its all about scheme fit and yes the oline blocking for you. 

Or he’s a RB that has balding tires. Why would I go back 2 years for a RB of all positions to show highlights of a guy whose averaged 225 touches each year as a starter. 

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1 minute ago, LeanMeanGM said:

Or he’s a RB that has balding tires. Why would I go back 2 years for a RB of all positions to show highlights of a guy whose averaged 225 touches each year as a starter. 

Hes never been a starter and never should be. He belongs in a rotation system like he was used here and in Chicago. Miami used him wrong. He is not a power back, hes a one cut back. Can he throw some weight around and thump? Yes, but its not his bread and butter. Last year he played a few games, year before with us he was injured half a season. Plenty of tread left on the tires if hes used in the right system/scheme that fits him. 

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12 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

How much cap space can we expect to roll over? We’ll have like $5M after signing our rookies. That won’t cover our dead cap next year. 

Agreed on that point, but the idea of splitting dead cap over 2 years is minimized next year as long we we roll-over cap. This is especially true if we trade/release Zach Ertz.

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13 minutes ago, DeathByEagle said:

Hes never been a starter and never should be. He belongs in a rotation system like he was used here and in Chicago. Miami used him wrong. He is not a power back, hes a one cut back. Can he throw some weight around and thump? Yes, but its not his bread and butter. Last year he played a few games, year before with us he was injured half a season. Plenty of tread left on the tires if hes used in the right system/scheme that fits him. 

In 3 seasons in Chicago he averaged 18 touches per game. Only Gurley and Elliot had more touches in the entire NFL but he wasn't a starter??? Ok then.

He was traded for a 6th round pick 2 years ago. He himself thought his career was over just 3 months ago. This is most likely his last year if he even makes the team.

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12 minutes ago, DeathByEagle said:

Hes never been a starter and never should be. He belongs in a rotation system like he was used here and in Chicago. Miami used him wrong. He is not a power back, hes a one cut back. Can he throw some weight around and thump? Yes, but its not his bread and butter. Last year he played a few games, year before with us he was injured half a season. Plenty of tread left on the tires if hes used in the right system/scheme that fits him. 

I'll wait and see with howard, fortunately for him his injuries have been more upper body than lower body yet he's still been injury prone.

Something that limits Howard is he's kind of a one note back, he doesn't have the speed to get around the corner or bounce it outside, nor is he much of a threat as a receiver, defense knows when hes in the game he's either pass blocking or running between the tackles and when he does he's not a threat to break a big run either as he lacks burst as well.

I have low expectations for Howard so we'll see.

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Curious, because I've seen people throw numbers out there. What would he considered a "good" season by Hurts for some of you? Genuinely curious.

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5 minutes ago, Swoop said:

Curious, because I've seen people throw numbers out there. What would he considered a "good" season by Hurts for some of you? Genuinely curious.

4,500 total yards, 35 TDs, 15 total turnovers.

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4 minutes ago, Swoop said:

Curious, because I've seen people throw numbers out there. What would he considered a "good" season by Hurts for some of you? Genuinely curious.

66% competition, 4,000 passing yards, 26 passing TD's. 

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8 minutes ago, Swoop said:

Curious, because I've seen people throw numbers out there. What would he considered a "good" season by Hurts for some of you? Genuinely curious.

I won't go numbers, for me if he goes through progressions finds open receivers and doesn't want to run all the time I would consider that "good".

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